The final day of the Sydney Carnival and somewhat of an anticlimax given the sensational action we've had over the last month.
Thankfully they've had no more rain in Sydney and the track could be close to a good surface.
Thankfully they've had no more rain in Sydney and the track could be close to a good surface.
Who's Hot?
John O'Shea hasn't trained a G1 winner since Holler but he's been racking up Stakes races since with Italy, Souchez, It's Somewhat (twice), Calliope, Tally, Havana Cooler, Old North, Astern and Handfast. He trained four winners at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.
He has some great chances at Randwick tomorrow including Old North (Race 3 No. 1), Pearls (Race 4 No. 1), Obscura (Race 5 No. 7), Federal (Race 6 No. 10) and Havana Cooler (Race 9 No. 4).
RANDWICK
The All Aged Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Two converging form lines here - some have been chasing home Winx and the others have been chasing home Chautauqua. There doesn't appear to be a lot of speed on paper and with a small field coming out of the 1400m chute expect another tactical w-f-a affair. The swoopers could be coming wide late in the day too given this is the third meeting at Randwick in 15 days and the rail is out nine metres. Barriers no real concern with only one major turn to navigate.
Kermadec was awful in the G1 Doncaster Mile last start but you have to forgive a good horse one bad run. His previous effort (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes was impressive when he beat all bar Winx. If Chris Waller is happy to continue then the horse must be in good order because he's not the type to risk a good horse. I think he's crazy odds for a two-time G1 winner at Randwick and hoop James McDonald did ride five winners at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.
Press Statement was safely held (above) when third behind his stablemates Winx and Kermadec in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. He meets the latter half a kilo worse off too. Dropping back to 1400m here appeals because he's two from three at the trip with his only "failure" coming when he was absolutely luckless in the G1 Golden Rose last September. That was the only time he has missed a place in 10 career starts. Jockey Hugh Bowman is flying.
Black Heart Bart finished ahead of Chautauqua in the G1 Newmarket Handicap (below) but he was in receipt of a 4.5kg weight advantage. He proved that first-up run for new trainer Darren Weir was no fluke when he lumped 58.5kg to claim the G3 Victoria Handicap at his next start. He's had eight starts at 1400m for seven top two placings including five wins and Blake Shinn has chosen to ride him over English.
English ran a mighty race (below) behind Chautauqua in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes two weeks ago when she had to get too far back from a wide gate. Her prior effort in the G1 Galaxy was also full of merit for the same reason. She's only been tried beyond 1200m once when well beaten in the G1 Sires Produce Stakes this time last year but she was ridden upside down that day. Trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times.
Of the rest Rebel Dane is a G1 winner at 1400m but that was two and a half years ago. He's won just once in 20 subsequent appearances and has been unplaced 13 times. I think he is afraid of cameras. Perignon was great first-up, unlucky second-up and terrible last start when jockey Tim Clark reported she got stirred up behind the barriers. She's horribly placed at w-f-a but capable enough on her day. Goldstream is a winner of five from seven including a G2 Italian Derby. He's never won or even started at a distance below a mile but he's had a couple of searching trials to get him ready for this first-up tilt. Trainer Kris Lees had a Randwick double last weekend including a G1 with Lucia Valentina.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Kermadec
6. Press Statement
1. Kermadec
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
2. Black Heart Bart
4. Malaguerra
*** Yankee Rose is an early scratching ***
The Yankee Rose form from the G1 Sires Produce (below) looks the best going into this race and history would suggest that too. Of those who chased her home that day Faraway Town was good once she got clear running and it is the traditional lead-up race with eight of the last nine winners finishing top four en route to this feature. Chimboraa had a torrid run in the same event when wide throughout and yet still managed to pass a few tired horses late. From barrier three he should get a bit of cover here and he should see the mile right out. Hugh Bowman is a G1 specialist.
Of those who come here via a different path Obscura flashed home from the back of the field last start in the G3 Baillieu Stakes and gives every indication Randwick and 1600m will suit but only two winners in the last 17 years haven't come via the G1 Sires Produce Stakes. The stable and jockey are in red hot form.
El Sicario goes into this on the back of a second (below) in the G2 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes in N.Z when he was nabbed right on the line. He's a big, strong brute who has a trip written all over him and the stable has already caused one major upset at this carnival with Tavago winning the G1 Australian Derby at $31. Some operators put this bloke up at the same price but he's now single figure odds with the scratching of Yankee Rose.
Prized Icon ran the 1600m right out last weekend in the Listed Fernhill Handicap but the last winner to come via that race was Dracula in 1998. That was his first win but he's never missed a top three finish prior including placings to Capitalist, Telperion, Scarlet Rain and Defcon. James Cummings is the only trainer outside of Chris Waller to prepare a winner on each of the first two days of The Championships.
2. Black Heart Bart
4. Malaguerra
The Champagne Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-o set weights)
*** Yankee Rose is an early scratching ***
The Yankee Rose form from the G1 Sires Produce (below) looks the best going into this race and history would suggest that too. Of those who chased her home that day Faraway Town was good once she got clear running and it is the traditional lead-up race with eight of the last nine winners finishing top four en route to this feature. Chimboraa had a torrid run in the same event when wide throughout and yet still managed to pass a few tired horses late. From barrier three he should get a bit of cover here and he should see the mile right out. Hugh Bowman is a G1 specialist.
Of those who come here via a different path Obscura flashed home from the back of the field last start in the G3 Baillieu Stakes and gives every indication Randwick and 1600m will suit but only two winners in the last 17 years haven't come via the G1 Sires Produce Stakes. The stable and jockey are in red hot form.
El Sicario goes into this on the back of a second (below) in the G2 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes in N.Z when he was nabbed right on the line. He's a big, strong brute who has a trip written all over him and the stable has already caused one major upset at this carnival with Tavago winning the G1 Australian Derby at $31. Some operators put this bloke up at the same price but he's now single figure odds with the scratching of Yankee Rose.
Prized Icon ran the 1600m right out last weekend in the Listed Fernhill Handicap but the last winner to come via that race was Dracula in 1998. That was his first win but he's never missed a top three finish prior including placings to Capitalist, Telperion, Scarlet Rain and Defcon. James Cummings is the only trainer outside of Chris Waller to prepare a winner on each of the first two days of The Championships.
Locky's Selections
BEST
4. El Sicario
10. Faraway Town
4. El Sicario
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
3. Chimboraa
7. Obscura
1. Prized Icon
OTHER BETS
Charlie Boy (Randwick Race 6 No. 1) isn't "first-up" in the traditional sense but he is coming off a seven week break since claiming the G3 Liverpool City Cup fresh. It's when he seems to race best and I think Gerald Ryan has had an eye on this race for a while whereas many others are just warming up for Brisbane Winter campaigns. He looks really well placed at the set weights plus penalties conditions and with an improving track and a great barrier draw I'm not surprised he's $11 into $9 in early markets.
3. Chimboraa
7. Obscura
1. Prized Icon
OTHER BETS
Pearls (Randwick Race 4 No. 1) just missed at big odds last start when conceding the winner three kilos. She was 1500m back to 1200m that day after an OK effort in that red hot G1 Coolmore Classic (below) which featured subsequent winners Azkadellia (G1 Queen of the Turf), Lucia Velentina (G1 Queen Elizabeth), Zanbagh (G2 Emancipation) and Vergara (G3 Epona) plus last weekend's hard luck story Ghisoni. Back up to 1400m looks ideal because she's a G2 winner last prep at this track and distance.
Good punting!
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