No Winx but we still have four G1 races so it's not a total disaster. The drawback is we are looking at another rain affected surface but hopefully it's on the improve.
I think it will be a genuinely wet track though because when interviewed post-race many of the beaten jockeys last week were lamenting the fact that their mounts just did not handle the going despite how well the track looked and the good drying conditions. With nearly 200m of rain the last two to three weeks I think the damage has already been done.
I think it will be a genuinely wet track though because when interviewed post-race many of the beaten jockeys last week were lamenting the fact that their mounts just did not handle the going despite how well the track looked and the good drying conditions. With nearly 200m of rain the last two to three weeks I think the damage has already been done.
Who's Hot?
Hugh Bowman has won six G1's in the last six weeks.
He has some well fancied rides tomorrow including Prized Icon (Race 1 No. 1), Santa Ana Lane (Race 2 No. 1), Japonisme (Race 5 No. 1) Sofia Rosa (Race 6 No. 7) and Preferment (Race 9 No. 2).
RANDWICK
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** Our Ivanhowe is an early scratching ***
The United States is the top elect here with the bookies and favoured runners have a good record in this feature with seven of the last 11 winners returning $5 or less. It's not hard to see why after hid dominant last start win (below) in the G1 Ranvet Stakes where he accounted for several of his opponents here. He has won on slow (beating Dibayani funnily enough) but that was on debut over 1400m three and a half years ago. He is a late nomination too and I hate horses that go into races as an "afterthought".
Hauraki chased home The United States last start (above) and appeared to have every possible hope. In his two previous starts he was placed behind Winx which is a tremendous form line but the bookies can't write a ticket for him. He's $5 out to $8 in early markets - possibly because of the shocking barrier draw and/or his poor wet track form.
Preferment comes via the G1 B.M.W (below) where he won thanks to a brilliant tactical ride. You could say exactly the same thing about his ride the previous start in that sit-and-sprint G1 Australian Cup. He's won four of his last eight starts - all between 2000m and 2400m - and three of them were G1's. His only worry would be the surface. He wouldn't want it to get too much wetter. Stable and jockey are in super touch. Drawn well.
Rising Romance finished fifth (above) behind Preferment but didn't have a lot of luck. She got strung up behind the tiring Our Ivanhowe then had to check off Montaigne but when she was finally clear she attacked the line. Fifth run last Spring she was a half length second in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes when dropping back from 2400m to 2000m. That was on a soft track. She opened at $34 but you'd be lucky to get half that price now.
Mongolian Khan has been just average in his three runs since returning from the colic attack that ended his Melbourne Spring Carnival prematurely. Granted he was three wide in his latest outing in the G1 B.M.W. (above) but I'd still prefer to see him do something more before I risked my hard earned. Only two horses in the last 19 years have won this race after finishing worse than fourth at their previous run.
Happy Clapper beat all bar Winx (below) in the G1 Doncaster Mile but he does go up 8.5kg on that run and he won't be getting a weight advantage as he did under the handicap conditions last week. He's never won beyond a mile but he gets every chance to relax in the run and see out the trip from the inside barrier. He's a three time winner at Randwick and he keeps responding every time trainer Pat Webster raises the bar.
Lucia Valentina caught the eye last start when flashing home to be a close up fourth in the G1 Coolmore Classic when resuming from a three month spell. She gave Azkadellia 5kg that day and finished right on her heels and that mare ran a slashing race in the G1 Doncaster Mile at her next start. Five of her six wins and three of her five placings have come on affected tracks. Jockey Damien Oliver has won this race four times and she has three wins and two placings from seven runs at 2000m.
Of the rest It's Somewhat is racing in fine fettle but this is a big step up and I think he'd have preferred it a bit drier. Dibayani is yet to win in this country but is pretty consistent and he has recent form around Winx. Leebaz had six wins and three seconds in his first ten starts. Since then he's had 16 runs for just two wins and three placings. Fenway would be better back to her own sex because she just seems to struggle in open company. Awesome Rock has had two runs on wet tracks and both were ordinary. Happy Trails is having a longer farewell tour than John Farnham.
Of the rest It's Somewhat is racing in fine fettle but this is a big step up and I think he'd have preferred it a bit drier. Dibayani is yet to win in this country but is pretty consistent and he has recent form around Winx. Leebaz had six wins and three seconds in his first ten starts. Since then he's had 16 runs for just two wins and three placings. Fenway would be better back to her own sex because she just seems to struggle in open company. Awesome Rock has had two runs on wet tracks and both were ordinary. Happy Trails is having a longer farewell tour than John Farnham.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Criterion
2. Preferment
1. Criterion
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
12. Lucia Valentina
9. Happy Clapper
13. Rising Romance
8. Dibayani
OTHER GROUP 1'S
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Libran almost picks himself after three straight wins. His last start victory in the G2 Chairman's Handicap was enormous given they walked in front and he conceded 4kg to the placegetters. They gapped fourth and seven of the last eight winners of this race have taken the same route with three completing the double. He drops to 53kg and gets weight from most of his dangers.
Of the others Who Shot Thebarman and Grand Marshal went really well at w-f-a (above) against stablemate Preferment last start in the G1 B.M.W. They ran the quinella in this race last year on a Soft 7 but Grand Marshal goes up 3kg on that run and Who Shot Thebarman 2.5kg. What bothers me is both of them have an identical statistic - just one win from their last 16 starts.
Almoonqith didn't have a lot of luck behind the aforementioned duo last start but when he did get clear he surged late. Forget he ever ran in that farcical G1 Australian Cup. Go back to his win in the Listed Sandown Cup at this trip last November and the 3200m looks ideal. A really wet track might not be. Gallante is an absolute swimmer so his connections will have been doing a rain dance today hoping the showers arrive. The lightest weight he has shouldered in his 13 start career is 56kg so he won't know himself with just 51.5kg.
12. Lucia Valentina
9. Happy Clapper
13. Rising Romance
8. Dibayani
OTHER GROUP 1'S
The Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Libran almost picks himself after three straight wins. His last start victory in the G2 Chairman's Handicap was enormous given they walked in front and he conceded 4kg to the placegetters. They gapped fourth and seven of the last eight winners of this race have taken the same route with three completing the double. He drops to 53kg and gets weight from most of his dangers.
Of the others Who Shot Thebarman and Grand Marshal went really well at w-f-a (above) against stablemate Preferment last start in the G1 B.M.W. They ran the quinella in this race last year on a Soft 7 but Grand Marshal goes up 3kg on that run and Who Shot Thebarman 2.5kg. What bothers me is both of them have an identical statistic - just one win from their last 16 starts.
Almoonqith didn't have a lot of luck behind the aforementioned duo last start but when he did get clear he surged late. Forget he ever ran in that farcical G1 Australian Cup. Go back to his win in the Listed Sandown Cup at this trip last November and the 3200m looks ideal. A really wet track might not be. Gallante is an absolute swimmer so his connections will have been doing a rain dance today hoping the showers arrive. The lightest weight he has shouldered in his 13 start career is 56kg so he won't know himself with just 51.5kg.
Locky's Selections
BEST
4. Libran
7. Gallante
4. Libran
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
3.Grand Marshal
1. Who Shot Thebarman
2. Almoonqith
3.Grand Marshal
1. Who Shot Thebarman
2. Almoonqith
The Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Jameka was solid behind Tavago (below) in the G1 A.T.C. Derby last weekend and this looks much easier. She has drawn the car park but she did last week too and managed to cross them easily enough. She should do it here too because with all these girls on trial at the trip I can't see them going out to set any land speed records.
That win by Tavago last week (above) ties in the likes of Valley Girl and Capella because they finished just ahead of him in the G1 N.Z. Derby. Three of the last seven winners of this race were Kiwi trained and both these fillies did enough to suggest they're on target for a race like this in their last runs in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. Happy Hannah flashed home in the same race and is bred to stay. Her grandmother is G1 Queensland Oaks winner Joie Denise who has also produced G1 winners Sunday Joy and Tuesday Joy. Blake Shinn has never won an Oaks of any description but he's finished second five times - Fenway, Aliyana Tilde, Arabian Gold and Zanbagh (twice). Honesta was second to Jameka in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks last Spring on a Heavy 9. Single Gaze has beaten Honesta at her last two starts including the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and despite top two finishes at her last four runs she will go around at big odds again.
Diamond Made won the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes race at massive odds last weekend but after watching the run a couple of times I don't think it was a fluke. She'll stay all day and should see the trip right out. Alaskan Rose ran the best closing sectionals in the same race and her previous run against older horses was better than it looked because she got smashed on the turn. I think she'll stay all day and hoop Glyn Schofield rode a double last weekend. Sacred Eye meets those previous two horses 4.5kg-5kg better off for her last start defeat. Sofia Rosa was first past the post in the G1 N.Z.Oaks but lost the race on protest. She'd won three of her past four prior with her only miss coming when she fell and she handles the sting out of the ground.
*** Politeness, Supara and Asinara are early scratchings ***
Azkadellia beat all bar Peeping in the G1 Coolmore Classic two starts back (below) and left subsequent winners Zanbagh and Vergara in her wake. She meets both of them 2kg better off here for having beaten them. Her run last week behind Winx in the G1 Doncaster Mile was fantastic. The seven day back up is no concern because she did it fifth run in last Spring when she defied the leader bias to storm into third in the G1 Myer Classic.
That G1 Coolmore Stakes form (above) is really starting to stack up so the aforementioned Zanbagh and Vergara have to go into exotics. Zanbagh is drawn in and Blake Shinn can have her close to speed which will be an advantage tomorrow in my none too humble opinion. She handles wet tracks too. Vergara ran out of her skin last Saturday when fourth in the G1 Doncaster Mile. At her previous start she won the G3 Epona Stakes on a seven day back-up just as she is here tomorrow. She handles affected surfaces and will likely be our leader from barrier one. Risque gets another chance back to the mile because I just don't think she stayed the 2000m in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes last time out. She's won on a Slow 8 in N.Z. which is the equivalent of a Heavy 13 in Australia. She's a G1 winner at the distance back home and ran third in the G1 Australian Guineas two starts ago.
Heavens Above isn't suited at w-f-a but she must go in because she is flying. Two wins and two placings in her last four runs and you could make a case she should have won them all. Lady Le Fay handles all surfaces and has three wins and two placings from five runs at 1600m. She's been sound in her two runs back since her enforced six month "holiday" due to a bleeding attack and this bloke Bowman could win on a rocking horse at the moment. Suavito is top class and drops back from open company to fillies and mares grade here. She needs a firm track though. Badawiya is not the worst but the barrier is awful. Miss Rose De Lago and Noble Protector aren't hopeless.
Jameka was solid behind Tavago (below) in the G1 A.T.C. Derby last weekend and this looks much easier. She has drawn the car park but she did last week too and managed to cross them easily enough. She should do it here too because with all these girls on trial at the trip I can't see them going out to set any land speed records.
That win by Tavago last week (above) ties in the likes of Valley Girl and Capella because they finished just ahead of him in the G1 N.Z. Derby. Three of the last seven winners of this race were Kiwi trained and both these fillies did enough to suggest they're on target for a race like this in their last runs in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. Happy Hannah flashed home in the same race and is bred to stay. Her grandmother is G1 Queensland Oaks winner Joie Denise who has also produced G1 winners Sunday Joy and Tuesday Joy. Blake Shinn has never won an Oaks of any description but he's finished second five times - Fenway, Aliyana Tilde, Arabian Gold and Zanbagh (twice). Honesta was second to Jameka in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks last Spring on a Heavy 9. Single Gaze has beaten Honesta at her last two starts including the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and despite top two finishes at her last four runs she will go around at big odds again.
Diamond Made won the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes race at massive odds last weekend but after watching the run a couple of times I don't think it was a fluke. She'll stay all day and should see the trip right out. Alaskan Rose ran the best closing sectionals in the same race and her previous run against older horses was better than it looked because she got smashed on the turn. I think she'll stay all day and hoop Glyn Schofield rode a double last weekend. Sacred Eye meets those previous two horses 4.5kg-5kg better off for her last start defeat. Sofia Rosa was first past the post in the G1 N.Z.Oaks but lost the race on protest. She'd won three of her past four prior with her only miss coming when she fell and she handles the sting out of the ground.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Jameka
9. Alaskan Rose
1. Jameka
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
13. Happy Hannah
7. Sofia Rosa
8. Diamond Made
3. Honesta
13. Happy Hannah
7. Sofia Rosa
8. Diamond Made
3. Honesta
The Queen Of The Turf Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o and up fillies and mares w-f-a)
*** Politeness, Supara and Asinara are early scratchings ***
Azkadellia beat all bar Peeping in the G1 Coolmore Classic two starts back (below) and left subsequent winners Zanbagh and Vergara in her wake. She meets both of them 2kg better off here for having beaten them. Her run last week behind Winx in the G1 Doncaster Mile was fantastic. The seven day back up is no concern because she did it fifth run in last Spring when she defied the leader bias to storm into third in the G1 Myer Classic.
That G1 Coolmore Stakes form (above) is really starting to stack up so the aforementioned Zanbagh and Vergara have to go into exotics. Zanbagh is drawn in and Blake Shinn can have her close to speed which will be an advantage tomorrow in my none too humble opinion. She handles wet tracks too. Vergara ran out of her skin last Saturday when fourth in the G1 Doncaster Mile. At her previous start she won the G3 Epona Stakes on a seven day back-up just as she is here tomorrow. She handles affected surfaces and will likely be our leader from barrier one. Risque gets another chance back to the mile because I just don't think she stayed the 2000m in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes last time out. She's won on a Slow 8 in N.Z. which is the equivalent of a Heavy 13 in Australia. She's a G1 winner at the distance back home and ran third in the G1 Australian Guineas two starts ago.
Heavens Above isn't suited at w-f-a but she must go in because she is flying. Two wins and two placings in her last four runs and you could make a case she should have won them all. Lady Le Fay handles all surfaces and has three wins and two placings from five runs at 1600m. She's been sound in her two runs back since her enforced six month "holiday" due to a bleeding attack and this bloke Bowman could win on a rocking horse at the moment. Suavito is top class and drops back from open company to fillies and mares grade here. She needs a firm track though. Badawiya is not the worst but the barrier is awful. Miss Rose De Lago and Noble Protector aren't hopeless.
Locky's Selections
BEST
3. Azkadellia
6. Zanbagh
3. Azkadellia
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
16. Risque
12. Heavens Above
9. Vergara
13. Lady Le Fay
16. Risque
12. Heavens Above
9. Vergara
13. Lady Le Fay
Good punting!
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