Adelaide is in the spotlight with two G1's this week but we also have a good meeting at the Gold Coast with many Brisbane Winter Carnival hopefuls going around.
It will pay to keep a watch on the weather though because Morphettville is tipped to get a bit of rain starting tomorrow morning.
It will pay to keep a watch on the weather though because Morphettville is tipped to get a bit of rain starting tomorrow morning.
Who's Hot?
Matthew Dunn isn't a household name but he'll be well known soon if he can maintain his current strike rate because in the past three weeks he's trained 13 winners from 38 starters at 34.2%.
He has quite a few runners tomorrow but his best hopes of success seem to be Londehero (Gold Coast Race 1 No. 6) and Explosive One (Gold Coast Race 2 No. 16).
MORPHETTVILLE
The Sangster Classic (Group 1, 1200m, fillies and mares w-fa)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Great betting race with bookies offering $7 the field but several of the key chances have drawn poorly most notably Don't Doubt Mamma (15), Badawiya (17), Tempt Me Not (18), Sabatini (19), Miss Promiscuity (21) and Vezelay (23). With so many on-pace runners drawn wide it could be a mad dash early which could suit the swoopers.
Petits Filous has won five from seven. I'm inclined to forgive her two failures because the first time was her first try at G1 open company and her last start was her first the Sydney way of going. She's gone up favourite here so obviously there is money to suggest she can bounce back and she's going to get a lot better run than many of her rivals jumping from the inside half of the field. Yet to win beyond 1100m.
Griante was impressive two starts back (below) winning the G1 Galaxy. Prior to that she was unlucky in that red hot G1 Oakleigh Plate which has produced five subsequent winners in Flamberge, Fell Swoop, Reldas, The Quarterback and this mare. She is well placed here at w-f-a if you overlook her last start sixth where she went up 7kg and conceded 4kg to the five who beat her home. The good barrier is a big plus in the capacity field. Any rain helps.
Don't Doubt Mamma has two wins and second from three runs this prep and you could make a case she should be unbeaten because she couldn't have won from where she was in that farcically run G2 Kewney Stakes. Her last start win was brave given she was six weeks between runs and 1400m back to 1100m but the wide gate doesn't help her chances.
All the rest are double figures odds and only two winners have returned better than $9 since this race went to G1 status in 2005. I'll start with those drawn poorly.
Badawiya struggled last start (below) on that sticky Randwick track but still managed to beat half the field home in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. Three starts back she beat Don't Doubt Mamma at level weights although the pattern of the race may have flattered her. Her trainer Mick Price has won this race three times previously.
Tempt Me Not will be hoping the rain comes because she's very effective on soft tracks. Her last three runs on a wet surface have yielded a win and seconds to Japonisme and Secret Agenda. Glyn Schofield rode her on all three occasions and he makes the trip to Adelaide to ride her here.
Miss Promiscuity has won her last lumping big weights following a good first-up fourth in the Listed Bob Hoysted Handicap. She chased home Malaguerra and Thermal Current that day and beat home Beau Rada and they all won at their next start. Three wins and three placings at the journey. Craig Williams jumps off to ride Griante.
Vezelay finished in front of Griante and Sultry Feeling last start but meets them worse off here at the weights. All three of her wins were at 1100m and she has just one third from six attempts at this distance. Chris Parnham replaces the suspended Damien Oliver who copped a 29 day ban at Warrnambool on Thursday after failing an alcohol test.
Stablemate Pittsburgh Flyer was super first-up (below) in the G1 Oakleigh Plate but her two subsequent runs have been poor. She did have excuses because she got into early grief in the G1 Galaxy and last start she tried to come through the quicksand on the rail. Jockey Shayne Cahill has won this race twice with his first victory coming 22 years ago on Tarare in 1994.
Of those who fared better in the barrier draw Tuscan Sling disappointed as favourite last time out but she was eight weeks between runs and dropping back sharply in distance. Previously she had finished a narrow second in the G3 Mannerism Stakes. Four horses from that event - Azkadellia, Miss Rose De Lago, Wawail and Felicienne - have since won Black Type races.
Scarlet Billows has four wins and three second placings at the 1200m. Her last start win was good and prior to that she was solid if not spectacular behind Flamberge in the G1 William Reid Stakes. She is dropping back from 1400m but she's a four-time winner at this trip and has been runner-up three times.
There's still more you could make case for. Super Cash (1E) needs a scratching to scrape into the field but she wasn't far off Don't Doubt Mamma last start. Precious Gem has placed five times at this distance but has never won in eight attempts but she towelled up the boys last start in the Listed Anniversary Vase. I Love It ran third in this race last year and has been nibbled at ($26 into $18) in early markets. Both runs this preparation have been good. Sultry Feeling wasn't suited by the lack of tempo last start but before that she'd won back-to-back G3's with her runs spaced. Four week gap into this. Wawail isn't the worst but she can mix her form. I haven't mentioned the other four but there all capable mares on their day.
Tough race.
I could be totally wrong here because it's such a wide open race but for the record...
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Griante
18. Don't Doubt Mamma
1. Griante
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
17. Badawiya
19. Petits Filous
10. Tuscan Sling
14. Vezelay
OTHER BETS
17. Badawiya
19. Petits Filous
10. Tuscan Sling
14. Vezelay
OTHER BETS
Self Esteem (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 4) has been the subject of early speculation ($12 to $9) and the stable did win seven races during the Winter Carnival last year. She's been competitive at her last two starts in races like the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and G1 Australian Oaks. At $9 I think she's a super each way bet especially given the fact that she will be making her own luck up on the speed. The wide barrier isn't great but that should be offset by the engagement of jockey Blake Shinn.
Hauraki (Gold Coast Race 7 No. 2) is a much better horse on a firm surface so I'm putting a line through his last run. His previous form was super with two placings to Winx over unsuitable trips before just missing the in-form The United States in the G1 Ranvet Stakes. This is much easier and the firming track only enhances his prospects. From barrier two jockey James McDonald should enjoy a beautiful run in transit and he has chosen this bloke over the other two Godolphin runners.
Hauraki (Gold Coast Race 7 No. 2) is a much better horse on a firm surface so I'm putting a line through his last run. His previous form was super with two placings to Winx over unsuitable trips before just missing the in-form The United States in the G1 Ranvet Stakes. This is much easier and the firming track only enhances his prospects. From barrier two jockey James McDonald should enjoy a beautiful run in transit and he has chosen this bloke over the other two Godolphin runners.
Good punting!
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