Another two-state double this weekend with the G1 Doomben Cup in Brisbane and the G1 Goodwood in Adelaide.
Let's hope I go a bit better this week because last weekend I had more seconds than a stopwatch.
Let's hope I go a bit better this week because last weekend I had more seconds than a stopwatch.
Who's Hot?
Mick Kent is having a good month with seven winners from his last 16 runners.
He has runners tomorrow at Flemington and Morphettville.
DOOMBEN
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***
The Doomben Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** There are are no early scratchings ***
Hauraki will be right in the finish here if he reproduces the effort that saw him finish second (below) in the G1 Ranvet three runs back. The fact can't be ignored that he hasn't won for more than a year but he has placed six times at Stakes level including three G1's. The blinkers go on for the first time here and maybe that will switch him on. He may have needed the hit-out last start because he was four weeks between runs. Inside gate a plus.
It's Somewhat beat his stablemate Hauraki home in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes two runs back but it may just be that he handled the conditions better. The wide gate is against him especially if he can't get across into a good position before they leave the straight the first time. Having said that he was one of the runs of the race last start in the G2 Hollindale Stakes and I loved the way he ran through the line despite not having the best of runs.
Volkstok'n'barrell caught the eye making good late ground last time out in a slowly run G2 Hollindale Stakes and I get the sense he can peak here. He's a two-time winner over 2000m at this level having claimed the G1 N.Z. Stakes three starts back and last year's G1 Rosehill Guineas (below) beating Preferment. Jockey Blake Shinn is attempting to win this race for the third year in a row.
Noble Protector comes off a placing to the highly rated Azkadellia in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. She's six weeks between runs and jumps to 2000m but she did run second to Contributer at this trip in the G3 Coongy at her first start in this country. She seems to be getting back to near her best but she's going to need to be because they don't just hand out G1's. Has not won since March last year.
Our Ivanhowe was only a length and a half off Preferment (below) in a leader dominated G1 Australian Cup two starts ago. Anthony Freedman has won this race once and his brother Lee twice and they have enjoyed good Black Type success over the last month too with Cool Chap, Super One and Malaguerra. The firm track is against him though.
14 of the last 18 winners have paid single figure odds but let's take a look at some of the rougher chances for exotics.
Spiritjim was O.K. in the G2 Hollindale Stakes given he's never won below 2000m and it was his first run in almost seven months. On his best European form he'd just about win this and trainer Chris Waller has won this race twice before. Jockey Hugh Bowman flies back from Japan for the ride but the last winner to have finished worse than sixth at their previous run was Eye Of The Sky in 1990.
Messene led all the way to win the Listed Wagga Cup at his last start. That was his first win in 17 starts breaking a drought that stretched back more than two years. That's not the form line to win a G1 race in my never humble opinion. Lady Le Fay was also nominated for a much easier race in Sydney this weekend but the Waller stable has accepted for this so that may be something of a lead. Her last two runs were her only two at this distance and they were both good. Maurus hasn't been helped by the barrier draw but his last start win was dynamic albeit in much weaker company. He is the only horse in the field to have won at Doomben before.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Volkstok'n'barrell
2. Hauraki
1. Volkstok'n'barrell
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
5. It's Somewhat
3. Our Ivanhowe
8. Spiritjim
7. Maurus
MORPHETTVILLE
*** Griante and Daytona Grey are early scratchings ***
Black Heart Bart was unlucky not to win last start (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes when held up for a run at a crucial stage. He ran fourth in this race last year as favourite and that's the only time he's missed a top two finish in six runs at 1200m. He's been rock solid in the betting since markets opened and is well drawn and well weighted at just 3kg over the minimum. He'll be hard to beat.
Supido is an exciting young horse on an upward spiral with six consecutive wins to his name. This is a major step up in class compared to the races he's been competing in lately but he does get some weight relief from his better credentialled rivals. Trainer Mick Kent has already tasted G1 success this Adelaide Carnival with Abbey Marie.
Under The Louvre has started at single figure odds in 11 of his last 12 runs and has only won once and that was 14 months ago. Having said that he hasn't finished worse than sixth in that time and on six occasions was less than a length off the winner. He loves 1200m with six wins and five placings from 13 starts. Trainer Robert Smerdon has won this race twice before and this bloke did finish third in this race last year.
Admiral meets Supido 3.5kg better off for a narrow defeat last start. It was a good run given he hadn't started for 73 days. He's never been beaten in four second-up appearances. With 14 career victories to his name he is the winningest horse in the field - not bad for a 4-y-o having just his 21st start tomorrow.
The Quarterback has already won a major this prep with victory (below) in the G1 Newmarket Handicap when he ran past Black Heart Bart and Chautauqua. Following that he was far from disgraced when a flashing one and a half length fifth in the G1 William Reid Stakes. He has to lump a stack of weight here but he does have the inside barrier to offset that. He'll need luck though because he gets back in his races.
Since this race changed to set weights plus penalties conditions in 2007 five of the last nine winners have returned $21+ including three of the last five.
Flamberge won this race last year and has won two more big ones since with back-to-back wins in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and the G1 William Reid Stakes at the start of this prep. The wide gate and big weight are concerns and he was pretty plain last start. Sheidel went within a whisker of claiming the G1 Sangster Stakes last start. That was her fourth start at 1200m and the other three were all wins. She has no weight here and her overall record reads 19 starts for 12 wins, four placings, two fourths and a fifth. Sooboog is another with no weight plus he has a good draw and his last start run was enormous after he stumbled at the start and came out a clear last. They ran the final 600m in 33.96 seconds so his closing sectionals must have been phenomenal.
Fast 'n' Rocking has drawn the car park but he does swoop in his races so he's probably better off drawn out wide. He'll be storming home if as expected there is plenty of speed up front. Still I think they would have preferred to have drawn closer to the fence. He doesn't win often either. Super One was unbeaten in four starts in Singapore before coming to Australia. Last time out he broke through for his first win here at his third start when leading all the way to win the G3 McKay Stakes at this track. He's a go forward horse drawn wide with a lot of speed runners drawn inside him. That makes it tough. Big Money won a Rosehill trial 11 days ago and he obviously did enough to convince master horseman Robert Thompson to make the trip to Adelaide for just one ride. He's not the worst $34 chance I've ever seen. Miss Promiscuity was in good form before she lost the rider last start in the G1 Sangster Stakes. She looked like she had a lot to give in that race too and prior to that she'd beaten The Quarterback and meets him 2.5kg better off here. Another one at crazy odds.
OTHER BETS
Spieth (Rosehill Race 3 No. 4) ran second on debut to Secret Agenda before winning his maiden and then came from near last to finish close-up in a G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude. He went for a spell and was simply outclassed fresh in the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint before bolting in at Kembla Grange last start. He was first emergency in the last in Brisbane and would have gained a start but they've elected to take the easier option at home.
Tuscan Sling (Morphettville Race 6 No. 2) will find this a lot easier than her solid last start fifth in the G1 Sangster Stakes. That was just her second run back from an eight week break so she should be ready to peak here. She's won both her other two starts at the trip beating the likes of Reldas and Azkadellia and she's really well placed at the set weights plus penalties conditions.
Rageese (Doomben Race 8 No. 3) is another who has really seemed to turn the corner since linking up with the Weir yard. Like his aforementioned stablemate he has put two wins together including a devastating four length demolition job in Adelaide last start. He's always shown ability with a second to Pride Of Dubai in a G1 Sires Produce, a fourth to Exosphere in a G1 Golden Rose and a fifth (below) to Press Statement in a G1 Caulfield Guineas.
5. It's Somewhat
3. Our Ivanhowe
8. Spiritjim
7. Maurus
MORPHETTVILLE
The Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)
*** Griante and Daytona Grey are early scratchings ***
Black Heart Bart was unlucky not to win last start (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes when held up for a run at a crucial stage. He ran fourth in this race last year as favourite and that's the only time he's missed a top two finish in six runs at 1200m. He's been rock solid in the betting since markets opened and is well drawn and well weighted at just 3kg over the minimum. He'll be hard to beat.
Supido is an exciting young horse on an upward spiral with six consecutive wins to his name. This is a major step up in class compared to the races he's been competing in lately but he does get some weight relief from his better credentialled rivals. Trainer Mick Kent has already tasted G1 success this Adelaide Carnival with Abbey Marie.
Under The Louvre has started at single figure odds in 11 of his last 12 runs and has only won once and that was 14 months ago. Having said that he hasn't finished worse than sixth in that time and on six occasions was less than a length off the winner. He loves 1200m with six wins and five placings from 13 starts. Trainer Robert Smerdon has won this race twice before and this bloke did finish third in this race last year.
Admiral meets Supido 3.5kg better off for a narrow defeat last start. It was a good run given he hadn't started for 73 days. He's never been beaten in four second-up appearances. With 14 career victories to his name he is the winningest horse in the field - not bad for a 4-y-o having just his 21st start tomorrow.
The Quarterback has already won a major this prep with victory (below) in the G1 Newmarket Handicap when he ran past Black Heart Bart and Chautauqua. Following that he was far from disgraced when a flashing one and a half length fifth in the G1 William Reid Stakes. He has to lump a stack of weight here but he does have the inside barrier to offset that. He'll need luck though because he gets back in his races.
Since this race changed to set weights plus penalties conditions in 2007 five of the last nine winners have returned $21+ including three of the last five.
Flamberge won this race last year and has won two more big ones since with back-to-back wins in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and the G1 William Reid Stakes at the start of this prep. The wide gate and big weight are concerns and he was pretty plain last start. Sheidel went within a whisker of claiming the G1 Sangster Stakes last start. That was her fourth start at 1200m and the other three were all wins. She has no weight here and her overall record reads 19 starts for 12 wins, four placings, two fourths and a fifth. Sooboog is another with no weight plus he has a good draw and his last start run was enormous after he stumbled at the start and came out a clear last. They ran the final 600m in 33.96 seconds so his closing sectionals must have been phenomenal.
Fast 'n' Rocking has drawn the car park but he does swoop in his races so he's probably better off drawn out wide. He'll be storming home if as expected there is plenty of speed up front. Still I think they would have preferred to have drawn closer to the fence. He doesn't win often either. Super One was unbeaten in four starts in Singapore before coming to Australia. Last time out he broke through for his first win here at his third start when leading all the way to win the G3 McKay Stakes at this track. He's a go forward horse drawn wide with a lot of speed runners drawn inside him. That makes it tough. Big Money won a Rosehill trial 11 days ago and he obviously did enough to convince master horseman Robert Thompson to make the trip to Adelaide for just one ride. He's not the worst $34 chance I've ever seen. Miss Promiscuity was in good form before she lost the rider last start in the G1 Sangster Stakes. She looked like she had a lot to give in that race too and prior to that she'd beaten The Quarterback and meets him 2.5kg better off here. Another one at crazy odds.
Locky's Selections
BEST
3. Black Heart Bart
15. Supido
3. Black Heart Bart
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
2. The Quarterback
18. Miss Promiscuity
12. Admiral
11. Under The Louvre
2. The Quarterback
18. Miss Promiscuity
12. Admiral
11. Under The Louvre
OTHER BETS
Spieth (Rosehill Race 3 No. 4) ran second on debut to Secret Agenda before winning his maiden and then came from near last to finish close-up in a G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude. He went for a spell and was simply outclassed fresh in the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint before bolting in at Kembla Grange last start. He was first emergency in the last in Brisbane and would have gained a start but they've elected to take the easier option at home.
Tuscan Sling (Morphettville Race 6 No. 2) will find this a lot easier than her solid last start fifth in the G1 Sangster Stakes. That was just her second run back from an eight week break so she should be ready to peak here. She's won both her other two starts at the trip beating the likes of Reldas and Azkadellia and she's really well placed at the set weights plus penalties conditions.
Glorious Sinndar (Flemington Race 7 No. 10) has notched back-to-back wins since transferring to the stable of Darren Weir and is four wins from four starts at 2300m and beyond. A lot of these older horses have had their chances so I'm looking for a young horse on the up at a little bit of value. He gets 5.5kg from the favourite and I expect he will be making his own luck up on the speed.
Good punting!
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