G1 B.T.C. Cup Day - 14.05.2016

Hard to know where to look tomorrow with the G1 B.T.C. Cup at Doomben, the G1 S.A. Derby at Morphettville and a stack of good races at the stand-alone meeting at Scone.

For the first time in weeks we're looking at dry tracks everywhere too.

Who's Hot? 

Matthew McGuren has had only 13 mounts in the month of May but has mustered six winners and two seconds. All-up over the last three weeks he's had 26 rides for 11 winners and six placegetters.

He has six rides tomorrow at the Gold Coast.

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day. ***

The B.T.C. Cup (Group 1, 1200m, w-fa)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are are no early scratchings ***

Japonisme was rock solid in the G1 Lightning Stakes (below), the G1 Newmarket Handicap and the G1 William Reid Stakes before breaking through for an overdue win last start in the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint. Gets a nice pull in the weights from the older horses too at w-f-a and that Chautauqua form is looking pretty good now. Great barrier and G1 winning trainer and jockey. Lots of positives and he has been the subject of a good push ($5 into $4.20) in early markets. Should get the run of the race from barrier three.

Counterattack just failed to run down his stablemate Japonisme in the previously mentioned G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint and the third horse Takedown subsequently won last weekend's G3 Gold Coast Guineas. He's capable on his day but he can mix his form a bit and from the awkward barrier I see him being back and wide in a race without much tempo which is going to make his task that much harder. On the plus side hoop Sam Clipperton is in G1 winning form.

Fell Swoop looked just O.K. winning the G2 Victory Stakes last start but he was four weeks between runs on that occasion and I expect him to strip fitter here. He also has form around Chautauqua with a second (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. That was the second time this prep he's just missed in a major after a narrow defeat in the G1 Oakleigh Plate so he's due for a change of luck. One of only three horses in the race to have won previously on this tricky Doomben circuit.

Dothraki was solid behind Chautauqua and Fell Swoop (above) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes and prior to that he was third in the G1 Galaxy. His first-up run in the G1 Oakleigh Plate was sound too because he drew the outside of 17 and got trapped five deep with no cover. I note that jockey Blake Shinn sticks solid and he did ride both Malaguerra and Charlie Boy at their last few starts. Maps well from the inside barrier and with rail going back to the true position at Doomben that could be a big advantage.

Delectation is another who comes via that G1 T.J. Smith Stakes (above) and he didn't have a lot of luck close to the line or on the point of the turn so his five length seventh was actually a lot better than it reads. Let's not forget that back at Flemington during the Spring Carnival he won the G1 Darley Classic leaving the likes of Chautauqua, Terravista and Buffering, Srikandi, Flamberge and Boban in his wake. Five of the last seven winners of this race have returned $12 or better for the win. Rough chance.

Malaguerra didn't enjoy a lot of luck last start (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes so I'd put the red biro through that run. He had won six of his last seven before that with the only "miss" being a narrow second. He's really turned the corner since being gelded and could easily bounce back here. He's had three wins and a second from five tries at the trip and he does look like he's going to get a lovely trail here one or two pairs back from the leaders. One of the major contenders.

Artlee is going to need luck to come at the right time here because he's a get back, run on type who has drawn inside so he's likely to get buried back in the field here. It's been his undoing at his last two starts because he hasn't been able to get into the race until it was all but over. Still there was a lot to like about the way he finished off behind Fell Swoop last start but I think he'll be much better suited in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap in four weeks time when he gets out to 1400m on a big track with a light weight.

Charlie Boy won the G3 BRC Sprint at this track last year before finishing a narrow second to Boban in the G1 Doomben 10,000. He's minus the services of jockey Blake Shinn who has piloted him in seven of his last nine runs including his two wins. The tempo is against him however as he does like to get back and charge home. Stratum Star is on a G1 Stradbroke Handicap trail and may find the trip a bit short as he's never won below 1300m. He is however a G1 winner and only three other runners here can boast that - Delectation, Japonisme and the Kiwi visitor Sacred Star. The latter has performed well in Queensland in the past with four starts for a win in a G2 Q.T.C. Cup, a fifth in a G1 Doomben 10,000, and a fifth and a sixth in the last two G1 Stradbroke Handicaps. He will love the firm track after striking a few rain affected surfaces last campaign in N.Z and not many know their way around Doomben better than jockey Jimmy Byrne. Target In Sight hasn't won for more than a year but hasn't run too many bad races in between. He always seems to be thereabouts at the finish in lesser races but it's hard to see him figuring here. Still he's not the worst.

I think the other three will struggle at this level. There capable types and good enough on their day but this might be a bridge too far.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Fell Swoop

DANGER  

11. Japonisme

FOR EXOTICS

4. Dothraki
6. Artlee

8. Malaguerra

1. Delectation

OTHER BETS

Real Love (Doomben Race 4 No. 6) is in form with six consecutive top three finishes. I thought she was excellent last start when dropping back to 2000m just six weeks after a gutsy third (below) in a gruelling G2 Adelaide Cup. I'm wary when Darren Weir brings just a handful of horses to Queensland because the last time he did it Lucky Hussler won a Magic Millions Cup and Mahuta won a Magic Millions 3YO Guineas forty minutes later. She is really well weighted here too on a 54kg minimum.

Charlevoix (Morphettville Race 7 No. 4) could give trainer Mick Kent the S.A 3-y-o Classic double here after his filly Abbey Marie took out the G1 Australasian Oaks last Saturday. Like his stablemate this bloke is very lightly raced. At his last run he stepped up to the mile and a half for the first time at just his fourth career start and absolutely brained them in the Listed Galilee Series Final. Prior to that he was only a couple of lengths of Tally in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes (below) and that horse then franked the form by running a super race in the G1 Australian Derby.

Inz'n'out (Scone Race 8 No. 7) is getting another chance after just missing for us last start. He was narrowly beaten on that occasion and looked to me like he needed the run and he did concede the winner a kilo and a half. I like the outside draw too because as an on-pace runner he can now take his time to get across rather than having to be bustled from an inside gate to take up a position. They only have to negotiate one turn form the 1100m chute at Scone anyway. He's building an impressive overall record and has previous form around the likes of Good Project, Music Magnate, Fell Swoop and Winx!

Good punting!