G1 Emirates Stakes Day - 05.11.2016

Watch the first two races before you have a bet at Flemington tomorrow.

Yesterday the crown of the track was off and you had to be either coming down the outside in the straight races or hard up against the rail on the circle.

Just a couple of tips here as I'll be betting on the run.

Who's Hot? 

Flemington has been a happy hunting ground for Team Snowden the last few days with a double on Cup Day (Flippant and Artistry) and another winner (Redzel) yesterday.

They have two runners at Flemington tomorrow - Niccolance (Race 4 No. 4) and Happy Hannah (Race 6 No. 16).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers. ***

Emirates Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm tipping Scottish as the one to beat. He beat all bar Jameka (below) in the G1 Caulfield Cup after a torrid run and back to 2000m will suit him much better as will the weight scale. He is drawn well and should either lead or be just off the pace and that was the place to be yesterday. Good Standing is another who profiles similarly and has the added advantage of getting at least 7.5kg from all his rivals except Seaburge. He faces a big test here taking on open company but the stable identified this race early and he's been given a good gap.

The United States heads to the races for the third weekend in a row. If he has taken no harm from the tough prep he is one of the main chances here but I'm just concerned he's going to be back and forced to come wide on a track that may not be suiting horses with that racing pattern. He was huge last Saturday in the G1 Cantala Stakes and the stable and jockey won The Cup on Tuesday.

Vanbrugh is my best roughie because 2000m is his best distance and he has also had a freshen-up since his last start win. Chris Waller and Ben Melham have combined a few times already for Black Type success this Spring. His run in the G1 Epsom two starts back (below) was solid and that has been a strong from race with Le Romain (5th), McCreery (6th) and Fabrizio (10th) all performing well subsequently. 

Endless Drama is having his first run in Australia but his overseas form is top notch. He absolutely bolted in three weeks ago in a trial and Chris Waller did produce another international Arod fresh yesterday for an unlucky second. Palentino has had two forgivable runs at his last two starts because he didn't handle the Sydney way in the G1 Epsom and he got skittled at a vital stage last weekend in the G1 Cantala Stakes. He races well here at Headquarters but has never won beyond 1600m. Neither has Tivaci but he did find the line well last weekend. That was a handicap though and he rises 6.5kg here. He is another with very good Flemington form.

I may be deranged but I'm going to risk all those coming via the G1 Cox Plate (below) because it was a real gutbuster. Hartnell and Yankee Rose looked a bit flat at their next runs when well fancied so I'm leaving out Happy Trails, Hauraki, Happy Clapper, Vadamos and Awesome Rock.

Seaburge was great in the G1 Caulfield Guineas but was pretty plain last week when taking on the older brigade even with the massive pull in the weights. He's stepping up to 2000m for the first time too and I can't find a place for him.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

7. Scottish

DANGER  

12. Good Standing

FOR EXOTICS

3. The United States
10. Vanbrugh
8. Endless Drama

5. Vadamos

OTHER BETS

Ulmann (Flemington Race 9 No. 3) is racing in great heart. From seven starts this campaign he's notched three wins (including two at this track) and placings to The United States, Bon Aurum and Duke Of Brunswick. His only miss was on a Heavy 9. He's a four time winner at 1400m and drops a kilo on his last run despite coming back from a G2 w-f-a race to a handicap. That is usually a good recipe for success.

Good punting!

G1 Melbourne Cup Day - 01.11.2016

The race that stops a nation.

The only problem is that this nation is only capable of producing one horse that could make the final field of 24.

Who's Hot? 

It was a good day for trainer Mick Price on Saturday with a G1 winner at Flemington in Flying Artie and two winners from two runners at Traralgon.

He has three runners on Cup Day at Flemington - Hellbound (Race 5 No. 11), Summer Glen (Race 6 No. 16) and Secret Agenda (Race 9 No. 6).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a high chance of showers in the afternoon. ***

Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

The market has Hartnell as the one to beat and I must say I agree. I think at the weights he simply wins this if he has come through the G1 Cox Plate (below) unscathed and if he runs out the 3200m. The fact that he's still racing indicates to me that he has pulled up well after last start and while he disappointed in this race last year (when not at his best) he has won over 3200m in England. Only Winx has beaten him this preparation.

Oceanographer is $34 into $7 since Saturday morning on the back of his barnstorming win in the G3 Lexus on Derby Day. He ran slashing time and has just 52kg but the worrying thing is he's having his third run in 13 days. Offsetting that is trainer Charlie Appleby. he's had six runners since landing in Australia and has won a G3 Lexus, a G3 Bendigo Cup, had first and third in the G3 Geelong Cup and second in the G1 Caulfield Cup.

Jameka was far too good (below) in the G1 Caulfield Cup but she goes up in the weights here and on her breeding she has to be suspect at 3200m. The inside draw helps but she couldn't get near Hartnell in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and meets him 1.5kg worse off here. I'm risking her but as the only Australian bred I would love to see her win. Only three mares (Jezabeel, Ethereal and Makybe Diva) have won in the last 24 years.

Bondi Beach is the only other runner at single figure odds and he should get a lovely run from barrier five. He's one of four runners for Team Williams and is considered their top chance. He ran in this race last year but forget he went around in that farcically run barrier trial. He's been set for this ever since and his preparation has been spot on.

Double figure odds the rest.

Almandin qualified for this race with victory in the G3 Bart Cummings four weeks ago and has been kept aside since. He's well weighted and jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won the G3 Geelong Cup, the G3 Bendigo Cup and G3 Lexus Stakes in the last two weeks. Wicklow Brave has seven wins at 3200m or beyond. Trainer Willie Mullins had Max Dynamite finish second in this race last year so he knows how to get one ready. Frankie Dettori has a lot of work to do from the outside barrier. Heartbreak City also fared poorly in the barrier draw. He's strung together three wins on end back home. Two of them were hurdles so he won't know himself with just 54kg. I just question the strength of that form though. Big Orange ran well when fifth in this race last year and he is a two time winner at the two miles including a last start win (below) in the G2 Goodwood Cup. Not many top weights win.

Only three winners in the past 26 years have paid more than $17.

Of those at longer odds Exospheric meets Jameka much better at the weights then he did when a closing third in the G1 Caulfield Cup. He profiles well for this race because he's an international who's had one run in this country and performed well much like Americain, Dunaden and Protectionist. Trainer Lee Freedman has won this race five times and Damien Oliver has won three. Almoonqith was right behind Exospheric last start and probably should have beaten him home with clear running. He did win at this trip in the Listed Sandown Cup but he was well beaten in this race last year and then was safely held in the G1 Sydney Cup. A better barrier would have helped too. Secret Number finished second in the G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at this Carnival last year. He's only raced once since for a win in the Listed Doonside Cup in September and has four wins and a second from five first-up appearances.

Grand Marshal got his preferred wet conditions last start and proved too strong in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup. That was his third win beyond 2400m from six attempts and he's also been placed in a G1 Sydney Cup (below) and a G2 Chairman's Handicap. He won the 2800m race on this day two years ago. Who Shot Thebarman was second in that G2 Moonee Valley Cup and meets his stablemate Grand Marshal 2.5kg worse. He's an honest type with a great Flemington record who has a win and two placings at the trip but he's had two chances to win this race already and it's hard to see him going to a new level given he's now an 8-y-o. Wide draw doesn't help either.

Qewy won the G3 Geelong Cup a fortnight ago and as mentioned above trainer Charlie Appleby is in a bit of a purple patch at present. He's won up to 3300m (the horse that is, not Charlie) and placed at 4000m so the distance isn't a problem. He was jumping hurdles three starts ago however. Grey Lion was just beaten by Qewy at Geelong and beat home Oceanographer. That form reads well now and he meets them better off at comparative weights. The worry is his only run beyond 2500m was an abject failure.

Curren Mirotic has been mixing his form back home in Japan but he's had two starts at this distance for two placings. They came in the last two renewals of the G1 Tenno Sho (latest below) which is one of the strongest two mile races in the world. On his best he'd be right in this but he's a hard one to catch and he is getting a bit long in the tooth. Drawn poorly but he'll probably cross and lead. Gallante led all the way to win the G1 Sydney Cup back in April and he's drawn to get a good run. He failed when well backed on that shifting track at Moonee Valley last start but so did Prized Icon and he bounced back to win the G1 V.R.C. Derby on Saturday so it may pay to be forgiving.

Our Ivanhowe was getting home well at the end of the G1 Caulfield Cup. Being drawn in the first half dozen will assist his chances but since 1977 only Makybe Diva (2005) has carried 57kg or more to victory. He'd really come into contention if the track was soft but I just don't think he's going to get enough rain.

Good luck to the other six runners.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

6. Hartnell

DANGER  

5. Exospheric

FOR EXOTICS

17. Almandin
4. Bondi Beach
21. Secret Number

20. Oceanographer

OTHER BETS

Sir Bacchus (Flemington Race 9 No. 11) has an electric finish as he displayed at Moonee Valley two weeks ago. I think he would have done the same thing at his previous start but he just got trapped behind other horses. That was his second unlucky run in a row at 1200m. He's won his other five. Chris Waller and Ben Melham have already tasted Spring Carnival Black Type success with French Emotion, Vanbrugh and Grand Marshal.

Egyptian Symbol (Flemington Race 10 No. 2) has drawn badly but she usually drifts back in her races so it's not a real concern. She looked good winning fresh and the stable has only brought two horses south for the Carnival. Her only 1400m run was a one length third to Mahuta in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas.

Good punting!

G1 V.R.C. Derby Day - 29.10.2106

Winx is going to be hard to top but four G1 races on the one card might go close.

It's going to be a busy week for me too with four meetings in the next eight days.

Who's Hot? 

Hoop Steven Arnold is in a rich vein of form with seven winners and five placings from his last 21 rides including Black Type victories on Palazzo Pubblico, Sweet Sherry and Conchita.

He has a few rides at Moonee Valley tonight and tomorrow he combines again with Palazzo Pubblico (Race 3 No. 8) as well as Manolo Blahniq (Race 5 No. 10), Morvada (Race 7 No. 5) and The United States (Race 8 No. 2) at Flemington.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day. ***

V.R.C. Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

I think the strongest form line for this race is last weekend's G2 Vase at Moonee Valley so I've got the favourite Sacred Elixir on top. I tipped him in this blog back when he won the G1 J.J.Atkins at Eagle Farm in June and he has stayer written all over him. Swear comes via the Sydney form with a last start second to Yankee Rose in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes and that filly franked the form with her gutsy third (below) in last weekend's G1 Winx Charity Benefit Cox Plate.

I thought Morvada stuck on well behind Sacred Elixir last Saturday given he faced the breeze most of the way and that it was a real slogging test on that deteriorating track. So Si Bon was also good in the same race but he just seemed to run out of puff late. Will he run a strong 2500m? Prized Icon was only so-so in the same race but could improve back to a dry surface and he's drawn to get a lovely run. Silvera was just a pass mark but jockey Kerrin McEvoy is in fine form.

The other form reference is the G3 Caulfiled Classic a fortnight ago. Inference was the best for mine after getting a long way back in a dawdling affair and being forced wide around the corner. He was still chipping away at the end though as was Rocketeer but he did save ground by cutting the corner. Unfortunately they've drawn the outside two barriers. Beach Life made a mid-race move and was still there whacking away at the end. He was the last one to pull up. Nicholas Hall and Ciaron Maher combined a fortnight ago to win the G1 Caulfield Cup. Wine Bush was just a run. He sat handy in a race with no speed and horses behind him ran past him. Hugh Bowman has won this race three times. Kent got way too far back but his closing splits were comparable to those of the placegetters. Highlad looked pretty plain but he was stuck wide throughout and running into that howling northerly wind.

The Listed Geelong Classic form doesn't look strong but Tumultuous was strong late from well back in a race where the winner sat up near the lead. Horrible draw though. Hollywood Mo plugged away too and the Perry stable did have a winner at Moonee Valley last weekend. He's fared much better in the barrier draw. I think Captain Duffy will struggle to run out 2500m on that run but he gets every chance to prove me wrong from the favourable draw. All Out Of Love had a similar run to the winner but faded badly late (maybe a problem with his Air Supply?) so I can't possibly have him here.

The other four are emergencies and good luck to connections if they get a run but I couldn't back them in a pink fit.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Sacred Elixir

DANGER  

3. Swear

FOR EXOTICS

5. Morvada
6. Inference
13. Beach Life

4. Rocketeer

Cantala Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Only four favourites have been successful in the last 16 years with the other 12 paying $9 or better. Nine of them returned $13+. Stats could be largely irrelevant here though given the race was previously run on the final Saturday of the Carnival.

So I'm sticking with He's Our Rokkii once again. The last four winners of this race have carried 55.5kg+ and the last three have been 4-y-o's. Six wins and a second from seven starts since they put the shades on. Trainer David Hayes has won this race three times before. 

Mackintosh comes via that very strong G1 Epsom Handicap (below) when he looked to have it won everywhere but on the line. He beat home Happy Clapper who has since been a good in G1 Cox Plate and Vanbrugh and Fabrizio both of whom have since won. "Magic Man" Joao Moreira has ridden him once for one win.

Le Romain and McCreery also ran well in the same race (above) and Le Romain meets them both better at the weights. He won't be the bunny dragging them up to the tearaway leader here either. McCreery should get the run of the race from gate three. The 3-y-o Seaburge gets in with a featherweight and an inside draw and he went within a whisker of claiming the G1 Caulfield Guineas at his last start. Palentino has won a G1 Australian Guineas and a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) at this course and distance. In the latter he defeated Black Heart Bart. He won the Listed Hilton On The Park Stakes here during Cup Week last year. He can bounce back from his last start flop.

I could also make cases for others like The United States because he was simply awesome last weekend, Voodoo Lad just never runs poorly, Bon Aurum because McEvoy stays solid and gets off The United States, Good Project meets Voodoo Lad 4kg better off for their last clash, Tivaci was solid last start and Great Esteem has Winx form! 

You can't tip them all.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

8. He's Our Rokkii

DANGER  

3. Mackintosh

FOR EXOTICS

2. Le Romain
6. McCreery
5. Seaburge
11. Palentino

OTHER BETS

Morton's Fork (Flemington Race 1 No. 3) should have won last start but didn't see daylight until the race was all over. That was the first time in seven career starts he'd missed a top two finish including placings behind Black Type winners like Russian Revolution and Thronum. I can see Craig Williams getting a lovely ride here from gate four and the Royal Blue Army is in fine touch.


Astern (Flemington Race 5 No. 3) has to contest what I regard as the race of the day and it won't be easy with the likes of Extreme Choice, Star Turn, Russian Revolution and Flying Artie engaged but I doubt he'll ever be $4 again. He beat Star Turn fresh and meets him 1kg better off here, then he thumped them in the G1 Golden Rose leaving subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Divine Prophet in his wake. He couldn't win last start given the tempo but his time for the last 600m was Black Caviar-esque.

Good punting!

G1 Double Header - 21-22.10.201

Winx vs. Hartnell. Bring it on.

I flew out for Melbourne this morning to enjoy two fantastic days of racing so I'm keeping it brief.

Who's Hot? 

Jockey Hugh Bowman has had a quiet start to the Melbourne Spring Carnival with his only winner outside the mighty mare being Wine Bush.

He won't get many better opportunities to reverse the trend than at Moonee Valley this weekend with rides like Fell Swoop (Race 7 No. 8) tonight and Felines (Race 2 No. 1), Lady Le Fay (Race 5 No. 1), Sezanne (Race 6 No. 3), Who Shot Thebarman (Race 8 No. 3), Winx (Race 9 No. 8) and Veladero (Race 10 No. 3) tomorrow.

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for rain on Friday afternoon clearing to a partly cloudy day on Saturday. ***

Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Buffering kicks through from barrier two to lead. That should gift Fell Swoop a good trail from barrier three with Chautauqua drawn one and likely to drift back. Holler comes across from the seven gate to sit outside Buffering which drags Capitalist and Japonisme forward into pretty good positions I would think. Rebel Dane sits midfield from the handy gate while bad draws force Lucky Hussler, English and The Quarterback to go back. Under The Louvre will be back there too even with the good gate.

Chautauqua won this race (below) last year. Rebel Dane was a two length third in that race with Buffering a further length and a half adrift in fifth.

The last major run at this track and distance was the G1 William Reid Stakes (below) back in March. Holler lead all the way before being bloused late by Flamberge. The eye catcher was Japonisme who came from well back in a leader dominated race to finish a narrow third. The best run in the race however came from The Quarterback after he blew the start before rattling home into fifth. Lucky Hussler was soundly beaten.

Capitalist is coming off a third to Russian Revolution and Astern in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. He gets a good pull in the weights at the w-f-a scale and Extreme Choice beat up on a lot of these under similar conditions last start in the G1 Moir Stakes. English was on the heels of Takedown, Our Boy Malachi and Danish Twist last start and they franked that form at Caulfield last weekend. Fell Swoop is the only non-G1 winner in the race but he was good fresh in fast time against a lightly weighted 3-y-o and has won his only go here.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

11. Capitalist

DANGER  

2. Chautauqua

FOR EXOTICS

10. English
1. Buffering
8. Fell Swoop

W.S. Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Not much pace here. Vadamos leads from barrier two with Black Heart Bart not far away. Yankee Rose drifts back from gate one but not too far I wouldn't think. Winx lands in a good spot. Hartnell probably strides up to join her or at least not be too far away. Black Heart Bart drawn to his immediate inside helps. Happy Trails, Lucia Valentina and Hauraki drift back from awkward draws. Happy Clapper and Awesome Rock midfield with cover.

I can't go past Winx. She just gets a lovely trail here and her form is impeccable. Hard to see anything coming from behind her and running her down. Hartnell has looked untouchable in his last three starts but I just feel he'll have to do more work in the run. Black Heart Bart can sit handy in what looks a muddling affair and I like the way he knuckled down when Winx ran past him last start. Vadamos will be in or near the front for a long way for "Magic Man" Joao Moreira and the internationals have performed well in recent years (Adelaide, Highland Reel). Happy Clapper has been ticking away nicely for this and looks like he'll get a nice run midfield. Yankee Rose is a freakish type but I can't ignore the poor record 3-y-o fillies have in this race. The light weight and inside draw will help her though. 

Hauraki was devastating coming from last to win last time out but he'll do it tough from a wide draw with no pace on. I'm leaving Lucia Valentina out for the same reason although if the track does get really wet she comes back into calculations. Happy Trails flashed home behind Hartnell last start but like the aforementioned two his racing pattern and the outside barrier will force him to be ridden for luck. Awesome Rock has been racing honestly in top company but this is another level.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

8. Winx

DANGER  

3. Hartnell

FOR EXOTICS

2. Black Heart Bart
6. Vadamos
5. Happy Clapper

OTHER BETS

Sezanne (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 3) chased home Global Glamour and Yankee Rose in the G1 Flight Stakes last start. The former has since claimed the G1 Thousand Guineas and the latter has won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes. It was a great run given it was a slowly run race and she was last on the home turn. I'm just hoping for a bit of Bowman magic from the wide gate.

The United States (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 1) won the G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup on this day last year beating Prince Of Penzance. That horse went out at his next start and won a pretty handy midweek welter at Flemington over two miles. You couldn't have missed his eye-catching run fresh in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes when he got pushed wide on the turn. Narrowly beaten by He Or She in the G2 Blamey Stakes second-up last prep.

Gallante (Moonee Valley Race 8 No. 1) chased  home Jameka last start and that form is looking smoking hot now! He looks like he'll get a lovely passage here from barrier four and hoop Kerrin McEvoy is riding well. Straight to 2500m second-up is no concern because he took a similar route in the Autumn when third in the G2 Manion Cup. Team Williams have won this race three times with Zipping, Gallic and The United States.

Prized Icon (Moonee Valley Race 10 No. 1) was only a half length behind Yankee Rose in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes last start and that filly heads to the G1 Cox Plate. He was unlucky the start prior when third in the G3 Gloaming Stakes. Has a victory over Divine Prophet in the G1 Champagne Stakes to his name. Drawn to get the gun run. Stable had a Stakes winner last weekend in Good Standing.

Good punting!

G1 Caulfield Cup Day - 15.10.2016

You're going to see a distinct theme to my selections tomorrow with the Sydney form so dominant last weekend.

Who's Hot? 

Jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won a G1 at the last two Caulfield meetings with victories on Bon Aurum and Global Glamour. In between he caused a major upset in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes when piloting Russian Revolution to victory over Astern.

He is a good bet to add more Black Type to his resume tomorrow with rides on Scottish (Race 8 No. 4) and Tycoon Tara (Race 7 No. 2) amongst others.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day. ***

Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Big Memory and Fanatic are early scratchings ***

Four of the last eight winners have come via the G1 Turnbull so we'll look at that form first as Hartnell was dominant once again.

Jameka was thrashed into second place in that race (below) but she was more than three lengths clear of any other runner. She drops two kilos on that run and her last run at this track was a near four length win in the G3 Naturalism Stakes four weeks ago. The barrier is awkward but her 2400m form reads well. She'd be the shortest priced winner since Elvstroem in 2004. She's been well found in the marketplace however and is too short for mine. Tally was more than three lengths behind Jameka in third place and only meets her half a kilo better off here so it's hard to see him turning the tables. The wide draw makes it even tougher but he was clearly the best of the rest in that race. He won the G2 Autumn Classic at this track earlier in the year and his only run at 2400m was a third in the G1 A.T.C. Derby. Jameka beat him home that day too. 

Preferment drops two kilos for his fourth (above) to the aforementioned pair so he meets them roughly the same at comparative weights. His form hasn't been terrible this time in (he's chased home Hartnell three times) but he doesn't look the same horse he was in his last two preparations. Only four horses in the last 25 years have lumped 57kg or more to victory but if anyone can weave some magic to turn him around it's Waller and Bowman. Tarzino is another who has been a shade disappointing this time in but this is his target race. He drops 3.5kg on his last start run and it's the first time he's been down in the weights for quite some time. His Caulfield record looks bad on paper but he has run some slashing races here. I just hope he doesn't get buried back in the field from barrier four.

De Little Engine closed well in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and drops four kilos here. I doubt he has the brilliance to win this though as he seems like more of a grinding stayer. His Caulfield record is poor. Our Ivanhowe finished just behind him last start and meets him 3kg worse but he did finish third in this race last year and only has a half kilo more this time around. He should get a good smother in the run from the gate too. Set Square won three of her first four starts including a G1 V.R.C. Oaks (below) at 2500m but hasn't won since. She was beaten a long way in this race last year and has to carry a kilo more tomorrow. The barrier draw is horrible. 

Three of the last eight winners (Admire Rakti, Dunaden and All The Good) had their last start overseas so I'll now turn my attention to the international invaders.

Scottish like all of them is having his first run in this country but he does have form around horses who have raced here so that can give us a bit of a clue. Three starts back he won the Listed Steventon Stakes and Trip To Paris ran third. That horse was second in this race last year. His last start at this distance was a second to Highland Reel who was third in last year's G1 Cox Plate. Kerrin McEvoy won this race for Godolphin aboard All The Good eight years ago . Exospheric finished third to Scottish at level weights the last time they met and has to give him half a kilo for that two length defeat. Two starts back he ran third in the G2 Princess Of Wales Stakes at this trip to Big Orange who ran very well in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. Trainer Lee Freedman has won this race four times. So has hoop Damien Oliver and he's drawn to advantage.  

Articus is a four time winner at 2000m stretching out to 2400m for the first time. He carried 60kg last start so he won't know himself here with just the 53kg. Trainer Andreas Wohler brought Protectionist here to win a G1 Melbourne Cup two years ago so he knows what he's doing. I just don't think that German form is as strong as that of the other Europeans.

Sir Isaac Newton has only had the one 2400m run and he was far from disgraced when fourth (below) to stablemate Highland Reel in the G1 King George VI Stakes. As mentioned previously that horse has been competitive here. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has only brought two horses over for the Spring Carnival and I doubt they're here for a holiday. I'm wary of this bloke.

Real Love has taken an unorthodox path coming off a win in the G3 J.R.A. Cup. It's a double that's never been achieved in that races 21 year history. Only one last start winner has been successful in the last eight runnings and only one mare in the last 14. Still she drops 5.5kg on that victory and she did brain them. I don't think she beat anything special but all you can do is win and she did so with authority.

Sir John Hawkwood is attempting to become the first horse to win the G1 Metropolitan Handicap-G1 Caulfield Cup double since Tawqeet ten years ago. Drawing close to the fence is big plus and that Brisbane Winter form is looking good now. Especially that second to Real Love in the G3 J.R.A. Cup at Doomben (below) when he gave her 1.5kg. Three wins and two seconds at 2400m. Sacred Master ran a 22.19 final 400m when fourth to Sir John Hawkwood in that leisurely run G1 Metroplitan and his final 600m was only 0.02 slower than Hauraki in the G1 Epsom Handicap. He has no weight, a good draw and a win at the trip. Trainer and jockey go OK too.

Almoonqith is drawn to get the run of the race and the stable is flying. The problem is the horse isn't. Pemberley looks like he'll run out a strong 2400m but he may not be able to run it fast enough. Go Dreaming looks out of his depth here. Vengeur Masque is under the odds at $301. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

4. Scottish

DANGER  

5. Sir Isaac Newton

FOR EXOTICS

3. Exospheric
8. Sir John Hawkwood
11. Jameka
12. Real Love

OTHER BETS

Moqueen (Caulfield Race 4 No. 1) appreciated getting back onto a firm surface last start after four successive runs on wet tracks. That win in the Listed Dulcify Quality was full of merit too because she came from last in a race where they walked in front and ran sizzling late sectionals. She looks a nice G1 V.R.C. Oaks horse in the making.

Tycoon Tara (Caulfield Race 7 No. 2) is in a rich vein of form with three wins from four starts this time in. Her only defeat saw her less than a length away from Mackintosh and that horse went within a whisker of claiming the G1 Epsom Handicap at his next start. She's very well placed a the set weights plus penalties, she's drawn to get a good run and the stable is in great touch.

Our Boy Malachi (Caulfield Race 9 No. 2) wasn't far off Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at the end of last campaign and resumed with a fighting second toTakedown in the G2 Premiere Stakes. Three wins and a second from four 1000m runs and a four time winner second-up. The stable and jockey are riding high after a big day out at Caulfield last weekend.

Takedown (Caulfield Race 10 No. 4) rarely runs a bad race and I love the way he just keeps sticking his neck out. I'm overlooking his two poor Melbourne runs last Spring because he wasn't travelling anywhere near as well as he is now. (Honestly I just want him to win to see what antics excitable trainer Gary Moore will get up to post race!) He raced well in Queensland during the Winter Carnival and that's been a good recipe for success of late.

Good punting!