G1 VRC Derby Day - 31.10.2015

VRC Derby Day. Nine races - four G1's, two G2's and three G3's. Possibly the best day of racing all year.

Having said that it's going to be hard to top Winx and Chautauqua last weekend.

A more concise format this week because there is so much to get through. My apologies if the formatting is screwed up and some comes up in CAPS but I have done something unwittingly and don't have the IT knowledge to fix it.

Who's Hot? 

I'm going a bit left field here and naming Ascot trainer Adam Durrant.

In the last nine days he's had seven winners and five placegetters from 18 starters.

He doesn't often leave Perth but he has brought Kia Ora Koutou (Flemington Race 7 No. 3) over for the G1 VRC Derby. He also has quite a few runners at the Ascot meeting too.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a high chance of rain with possibly some heavy falls in the afternoon.***

VRC Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

These boys are going to appreciate the fact that none of the smart fillies are entered.

Tarzino just keeps putting in incredible performances to win despite bad luck in running but I can't take $2.50. Efficient in 2006 is the last favourite to win and some pretty good types have been beaten at skinny quotes - think Marching, Whobegotyou, Manawanui, It's A Dundeel and Hampton Court. He can win but I won't be backing him. Extra Choice won the Listed Geelong Classic last start over 2200m and he didn't have a soft run. I think he'll stay the trip. Pay Up Bro was third in that race and hit the line hard. 2500m looks right up his alley. Kia Ora Koutou is bred to stay. His sire Blackfriars won this race in 1999 and his maternal line boasts two G1 Melbourne Cup winners because his dam Kia Ora Miss is a daughter of Jeune and a granddaughter of At Talaq. Unbeaten back home in Perth and last start he beat older horses in a 2200m race as an early season 3-y-o which doesn't happen often. Get The Picture charged late behind G1 VRC Oaks favourite Sacred Eye last start (below) and is another who looks like the mile and a half will suit.

Lizard Island was left in front too soon (above) when Ayer's Rock threw up the white flag before the turn in the G3 Caulfield Classic. He was only run down on the line by Sacred Eye. I just wonder if he has the pedigree to see out the trip because he's by Sebring out of a Choisir mare. Etymology is different. I think he'll stay all day. His sire New Approach and his grandsire Galileo both won the G1 Epsom Derby. He ran on well behind Sacred Eye and Lizard Island without threatening and I like the fact that he can take a position in his races where are few of his opponents lack early tactical speed. Jadeer had the perfect trail last start and loomed to win at Geelong but I thought Extra Choice and Pay Up Bro performed better given they had tougher runs in transit. Ditto Ragnaar.

Locky's Selections

3. Kia Ora Koutou

7. Tarzino
8. Get The Picture
13. Pay Up Bro

Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Fawkner and Magic Hurricane are early scratchings ***

I'm looking to the G1 Cox Plate form here because five of the last six winners of this race came via that path.

Happy Trails won this race last year and forget his run last Saturday (below) because he was back and wide on a track the was clearly favouring the rail and horses near the lead. At his previous run he split Criterion and Mongolian Khan and he's a three-time G1 winner here at Flemington. Pornichet was good in the same race but did get a lovely rails run and got carted into the race by Winx. On his G1 Doomben Cup form he can be prominent here. Gailo Chop was sound too given he was another who had a torrid run and Flemington will suit him better than Moonee Valley.

Contributer will appreciate a race without The Cleaner where he doesn't have to chase a hot speed. Stratum Star proved he can run a strong 2000m last start (and with a big weight too) so he's earned his shot at w-f-a. Set Square was good in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance. Ecuador was second to Winx last start in the G1 Epsom Handicap and Flamingo Star was unlucky in the G1 Toorak Handicap but flew late.

Locky's Selections

2. Happy Trails
4. Pornichet

7. Gailo Chop
5. Contributer

Myer Classic (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o and up fillies and mares w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

This has been a funny race in the last 11 years with five winners starting favourite at $4 or less while the other six winners returned $16 or more.

I'm tipping Stay With Me will be in the finish but I can't tip her on top. I'm just harking back to 2004 when Alinghi got beaten at odds-on when everyone thought as a three-year-old at the w-f-a scale she was a certainty. This race is almost always won by a seasoned mare. Royal Descent could be that mare. Clearly the w-f-a scale favours her more than anyone here and she's back to the mile which seems to be her best trip. If you forgive Fenway one bad run when something clearly wasn't right she's juicy odds. Abidewithme drops back to fillies and mares grade after two good runs behind the boys (below) in G1's when she had no luck.

La Passe is flying at the moment and I love mares in form. Solicit went well first-up behind her and has a good second-up record. I can't see what Politeness has done so terribly wrong that she's been put up at $13. I could say the same about May's Dream. Azkadellia was good against the bias at Moonee Valley last week. Jessy Belle just keeps running honest races.

Locky's Selections

1. Royal Descent
15. Stay With Me

12. Fenway
9. Abidewithme

Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Exosphere dominates the betting here and I have to tip him on top despite the short price. He's been simply outstanding in his three wins this campaign and he's beaten the likes of Press Statement and Speak Fondly along the way and they are subsequent G1 winners. On that basis Sebring Sun has to be in the mix somewhere on his last start third (below) to Exosphere in the G1 Golden Rose. So too Counterattack who has since won. Hellbent chased him home on that occasion and didn't have much luck and they nearly broke the track record.

That's my Top Four but I admit there are others who will have their supporters. You could make cases for Ready For Victory, Super One, Keen Array, Japonisme, Dal Cielo and Mogador.

Locky's Selections

1. Exosphere
8. Sebring Sun
6. Counterattack

11. Hellbent

G1 Manikato Stakes/G1 Cox Plate Double - 23-24.10.2015

The best two minutes in sport. Enough said.

I will be focusing purely on the two big G1's as I am in Melbourne with the lads for the weekend and I have bigger priorities!

This was our view at lunch today.

Who's Hot?

Tough weekend in Melbourne so I'm looking to Sydney and Team Snowden.

Last weekend they had two Sydney Stakes winners in Nayeli and Dothraki who ran the quinella with stablemate That's A Good Idea. The previous Saturday Serene Majesty won a G3 at Caulfield and the weekend prior to that Capitalist won a Listed race at Randwick.

The have two runners at Moonee Valley - Disclaimer (Race 3 No. 5) tonight and Serene Majesty (Race 5 No. 1) tomorrow - plus three at Randwick tomorrow in Ryker (Race 4 No. 4), Hand From Above (Race 6 No. 2) and Nancy (Race 9 No. 1). 

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny weekend.***

Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Preferment: Only one favourite (So You Think $1.50) has won in the last nine years and all the other winners returned $6+. Five of those eight returned double figure dividends. The last five winners finished top three at their previous run and four of them were 4-y-o's.

No particular order here just trying to frame a narrative around the key lead-up races.

Winx just keeps putting in incredible performances to win despite bad luck in running and Hugh Bowman has elected to ride her over Preferment which is a big tick. She's drawn the inside barrier so she should get a cosy run and the trip isn't a concern because she finished second in the G1 Australian Oaks to Gust Of Wind who ran well last weekend in the G1 Caulfield Cup. My concern is this is her first go the Melbourne way and I wonder if her racing pattern suits a track with a very short straight. Only three winners of this race in the last 20 years have come off a last start run in the G1 Epsom Handicap and none of them had won it.

Now let's look at the international brigade.

Arod is two from two at the trip and has never missed a place in three first up runs. Last campaign he had five starts for two wins and three placings in Black Type races with his final run being a half length second (below) in the G1 Sussex Stakes behind superstar Solow. That horse has won his last nine starts with the last three being at G1 level.

Gailo Chop has won four times at 2000m and is a winner of seven of 12 overall so his strike rate can't be knocked. He too has Solow form with a one and a half length second three runs back in the G1 Prix D'Ispahan at Longchamp. He'd love a downpour because his best form has been on slow tracks and a wide barrier worries me for a horse having his first look at this track especially given they have a very short run to the first (very sharp) turn.

Highland Reel has a similar profile to last year's winner Adelaide. He has the same trainer in Aidan O'Brien, he's a northern hemisphere three-year old and he comes via. They also have the same champion sire in G1 Epsom Derby winner Galileo. His pedigree is pretty good on his maternal side too because his dam Hveger is a full sister to G1 Caulfield Cup winner Elvstroem. The good barrier should help him given this is his first look at the track.

Criterion made the other local w-f-a types look pretty ordinary when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes last start because he was two months between runs and had basically just stepped out of quarantine at Werribee yet he breezed to a pretty soft win. The horse that finished third was Mongolian Khan and he won last Saturday's G1 Caulfield Cup. Third run in last prep he brained them in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. World class.

Happy Trails was a close second to Criterion that day and finished ahead of Kermadec (4th) and Fawkner (6th) so I am struggling to see why he is at such juicy odds compared to the other three. This is the fourth year in a row he has contested this race and he hasn't been far away in the last two finishing a narrow second to Shamus Award two years ago and a half length sixth last year behind Adelaide. Barrier 13 is not too bad because he'll drift back anyway.

Kermadec was just OK last start but jockey Glen Boss said "he probably wants a bit more jar out of the track". Moonee Valley never really gets that firm so he could improve on this surface given they've had a sprinkling of rain and I'm not too worried about barrier 10 because I'm pretty sure he's going to settle worse than midfield. He was favourite for this race up until his last start defeat and you have to forgive a good horse one bad run.

Pornichet did not beat a runner home last start which is out of character for him. He'll likely be driven out of the wide barrier and attempt to get across into a handy position before they pass the winning post the first time. It just goes to show what a quality field this is when a top class guy like this can start as the $41 despised outsider.

Preferment may just be a Spring horse. He won last year's G1 VRC Derby but he had a disappointing Autumn apart from his narrow second in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. He's had three starts this Spring and has won his last two including the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) last start. His previous victory in the G2 Hill Stakes he beat Magic Hurricane (2nd) who then came out and won the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and Complacent (3rd) who came out and won the G3 Craven Plate.

Hartnell was ridden back in the field (above) in the aforementioned G1 Turnbull Stakes won by Preferment in a bid to get him to relax. It seemed to do the trick but it may have worked too well because he was on the back of the winner on straightening but just got out sprinted. He got passed late by Extra Zero which bothers me yet he beat home Amralah, Who Shot Thebarman, Happy Trails and Gust Of Wind who have all since run well. Is he looking for further?

Mourinho is the forgotten horse. His last start win (below) in the G1 Underwood Stakes he relegated Fawkner, The Cleaner and Mongolian Khan to the minor placings. Since being controversially denied a start in this race last year he's started eight time for four wins (three G2's and a G1) and a G1 third. He's had four runs from the 2040m starting point here at Moonee Valley for three wins and a third. They probably have to press forward from the wide gate but hopefully he can get across into some sort of position before the turn out of the straight. $41. Seriously?

Fawkner had this race won last year until Adelaide nailed him in the final bound. Before his last start flop in the G1 Caulfield Stakes I would have said he's going better this time around because I loved his gritty first-up win in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and then he just missed Mourinho (above) in the G1 Underwood Stakes. He's such a good horse he can't be written off and Team Williams have won two G1 Melbourne Cups with last start failures in Green Moon and Efficient so a form reversal wouldn't surprise. Horrible barrier.

The Cleaner will lead from barrier two. That's my bold prediction. It may be my only correct tip all day given they way I'm going. He led them up in this race last year and although he finished ninth he was only beaten three and a half lengths and toughed it out all the way to the line. It'd be great to see him get up because it would be an emotional result but I just think he struggles at a tough mile and a quarter.

Complacent has only missed a place once in his career and that was the day he was taken out of the race by another horse.  He spent more than 21 months off the scene injured after his second in the G1 VRC Derby of 2013 but since his return he's won the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (beating home Kermadec, Hartnell, Pornichet and Preferment in the process) and the G3 Craven Plate. Godolphin have flown in their retained rider James Doyle from England to take the ride so they're not mucking about.

Locky's Selections

13. Highland Reel

1. Criterion
3. Happy Trails
11. Kermadec

Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: In the last 12 years only three winners have returned more than $5.50.

10 horse field - the five go forward runners drew barriers six through ten while the five get back and run on types drew barriers one through five. Tactics will be interesting.

Chautauqua will start odd-on which looks a scary prospect given he'll probably have to come from well back in the field. I don't see a lot of speed in the race but what I do see is a lot of talent. I wouldn't be surprised if he absolutely brained them here but there's no way I can take such a skinny quote. Certainly a must for quaddies and other exotics but I don't see him as a straight out win bet option. Beat a few of these (below) when winning the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes earlier this year.

Terravista has shown himself to be one of the best sprinters in the country when he is right looking back at his win (below) in last year's G1 Darley Classic when he beat home the likes of Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee, Buffering and Rebel Dane. He's three from five second-up and five from eight at the trip and you could make an argument that he should have won this race last year when he was completely luckless in running. His fresh win was good and he's sure to improve with a run under his belt.

Srikandi is only having two runs this Spring and then she's off to the spelling paddock so expect her to be forward in condition. She'll be closer to the leaders than some of the other fancied runners which is a big plus and she has won at her last two first-up appearances. She's a two time G1 winner already and she rarely runs a bad race with nine wins and two placings from 13 starts.

Buffering is silly odds considering he is likely to get a pretty soft time up front. He's a five time winner at this track including three at this distance. He appears to be getting better with age because from 13 starts in the last two years he has five wins (all at G1 level) and four placings. He was a half length sixth in a blanket finish in this race last year and he won it the previous year. A last start winner here (below) in the G1 Moir Stakes - his third in four years.

Rebel Dane has come back a much more genuine horse since his throat operation. In four starts here he's never won and has only placed once but he was one of the many hard luck stories in this race last year so he gets around the tight circuit fine. The problem is he could face a similar story this year because he's going to get back to worse than midfield. He took ground off Terravista late last start but the other horse was first-up off a break and wasn't knocked about.

Alpha Miss surprised almost everyone when a shock winner last start in the G2 Schillaci Stakes beating odds-on favourite Lankan Rupee. However if you overlook her three poor performances last Spring her form reads well. She won three of her first four starts then was a half length third to Earthquake and Mossfun in the G2 Reisling Stakes before failing on a heavy track in the G1 Golden Slipper. She isn't the first filly to disappoint as a 3-y-o after a tough 2-y-o season and maybe the long spell was just what she needed.

Fast 'n' Rocking always seems to run well here and the stable is in good touch at the moment. His last start win was convincing. Rich Enuff has the blinkers on for the first time so they might switch him on. He'll probably try to hold Buffering out and find the lead. If he recaptures the form of last Spring he's more than capable. Griante chased hard behind Buffering last start and had the best closing sectionals but again it was set-up for the swoopers. She ran a two length third to Lucky Hussler in the G1 William Reid Stakes at this track and distance last March. Three starts back she chased home Fell Swoop and two starts back she was a narrow second to Politeness. Both those horses won at their next starts. Tiger Tees is a half brother to Terravista and a full brother to Ball Of Muscle but he's the brother the rest of the family doesn't talk about. I know how he feels.

Locky's Selections

1. Buffering
8. Srikandi

2. Chautauqua
9. Griante

G1 Caulfield Cup Day - 17.10.2015

What a fascinating G1 Caulfield Cup. 

Will the silverware be going to Japan for the second year in a row or could it go across the ditch with Murray Baker, Donna Logan and John Sargent flying the flag for NZ? Maybe it will be one of the European invaders or perhaps one of the local trainers - Chris Waller has three runners and Kris Lees has a pair. Let's not forget John O'Shea and the mighty Godolphin operation or the in-form Hayes/Dabernig partnership either. Mouth watering stuff.

The support races also interest me because outside the Cup winner last year six of the other nine victors - Stratum Star (Gothic Stakes), Set Square (Ethereal Stakes), Lucky Hussler (Moonga Stakes), Sweet Idea (Tristarc Stakes), Contributer (David Jones Cup) and Miracles Of Life (Caulfield Sprint D.H.) - have gone on to win G1 races in the last 12 months.

Who's Hot?

The training partnership of David Hayes and Tom Dabernig has had a week to remember.

Last Saturday they bagged a G1 double with Criterion and Stay With Me. Not content with success in the big smoke they headed to Cranbourne on Sunday and picked up another winner followed by two more on Tuesday at Benalla. Then they notched a treble at the Wednesday Caulfield meeting including two Black Type races.

They have a number of runners at Caulfield tomorrow but the bookies think their best hopes are Hell Or Highwater (Race 1 No. 6), Dawn Of Hope (Race 4 No. 10), Sacred Eye (Race 5 No. 13) and Rising Romance (Race 9 No. 14). 

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day.***

Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Set Square: Only one favourite has won in the last 10 years and nine of the winners returned between $8.50 and $16. Seven of them carried 55kg or less. Five of the last seven winners contested the G1 Turnbull Stakes at their last run. 

Mongolian Khan has rocketed into favouritism after his slashing closing third last weekend behind Criterion in the G1 Caulfield Stkaes. Mummify (2003) is the only winner of this race to have come via that w-f-a contest seven days earlier since 1996 and I just question how good the local form is compared to the international visitors. Still he hasn't put a foot wrong this preparation and is a worthy favourite.

Set Square loomed into calculations for this race after her last start third (below) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes behind Preferment and Royal Descent. Only two mares have won this race in the last 18 years but with just 51kg on her back she can't be dismissed lightly. She has tactical speed so she will probably be in the first half of the field and she's proven at the journey having won last year's G1 VRC Oaks.

Royal Descent meets Set Square 3.5kg worse off here than last start (above) and she just always seems to find a way to get beaten. The extreme outside barrier makes it tough but she did finish an unlucky fifth in this race to Fawkner two years ago when she carried a half kilo more. What worries me is that all her best form in the ensuing 24 months has been from 1600m to 2000m.

Less than three and a half lengths covered the first dozen horses over the line so lets look at those who were close up behind the aforementioned two.

Who Shot Thebarman (8th) just continues to tick along nicely and he is one of many who will relish the mile and a half. His record at 2400m+ reads nine starts for four wins, a second in a G1 Sydney Cup, a third in a G1 Melbourne Cup and a fourth in a G1 BMW. He'll have to be ridden for luck from the wide draw though. Volkstok'n'barrell (9th) had a pretty good run but got swamped late and I do have a query on him at a strong 2400m. He will appreciate some weight relief here with just 53.5kg after competing at w-f-a level. Gust Of Wind (11th) went through the line like a staying type and the last time this mare got to 2400m (fourth-up too) she won the G1 ATC Oaks beating Winx by two and a half lengths. She hasn't seen a lot of clear galloping room at her last two runs either. Rising Romance (12th) didn't get a great run in transit in the race but she should get a better passage here from barrier two. She was a half length second to Admire Rakti in this race last year after disappointing at her previous run and stays at the 53kg. Protectionist (13th) and Magicool (14th) just don't look to be going well enough to figure here.

Now it's time to look at the international brigade.

Snow Sky has drawn favourably and if he wins jockey Damien Oliver will equal the record for most wins in this race (five) currently held by the legendary Scobie Breasley. Fame Game was excellent in his last start second (below) in the G1 Tenno Sho at Kyoto and he is also drawn to get a dream run from barrier one. The other Japanese raider Hokko Brave didn't fare as well in the barrier draw but he's in good hands because his jockey Craig Williams has won this race twice in the last four years. He finished behind Fame Game that day but is considered the better 2400m horse of the two whereas his compatriot is more of a two miler. Our Ivanhowe has also drawn wide but given he'll get back that's not so bad. He won't want a really firm track but he drops to 56kg here after a brave effort last start with 60kg. He's in a good stable with his trainer Lee Freedman having won this race four times previously. Trip To Paris has won twice at 2400m but his last five runs have been at 3200m to 4000m so I think the G1 Melbourne Cup will suit him better. He might just be a bit too dour for this but watch for him and his stablemate Red Cadeaux at Flemington in a couple of weeks.

Lucia Valentina was third in the race last year at the same stage of her prep and with the same weight but she had won two of her three lead-up runs and this year she doesn't appear to be going as well. She is trying to emulate 1997 winner Might And Power by claiming this race straight after a failure in the G1 Epsom Handicap. I don't think this mare is as good as that bloke. Just quietly. Barrier 20 doesn't help either.

Magnapal automatically qualified for this race with victory in the G3 Naturalism Stakes and he's earned a crack because he's in super form this prep winning his first three starts before a narrow defeat last time out in the G3 JRA Cup. He drops seven kilos from that run and although drawn wide he should manage to get across handy. He's never won beyond 2000m but he does have five top two finishes from eight starts at Caulfield.

Lastly we have a quartet of runners coming via the Sydney staying races and I'll start with the Godolphin trio.

Magic Hurricane (4E) will need four scratchings to get a start but if he does scrape into the field he has no weight and a good draw and his last start win in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap was dominant. The drawback is that was a much weaker field and only two winners of that race have completed the double in the last 30 years - Railings (2005) and Tawqeet (2006). 

His stablemates Complacent (2E) and Hauraki fought out a thrilling finish (below) in the the G3 Craven Plate. The former conceded the latter a kilo and fought back to win after being headed in the straight but like Magic Hurricane he needs a few to come out just to get a start. Hauraki on the other hand is safely in the field and the last time he got out to 2400m he was a close second to Mongolian Khan in the G1 Australian Derby. They met at level weights on that occasion whereas here he will get a 2kg advantage and is double the price. His only two runs the Melbourne way have been dismal though.

Complacent (inside) fights back to outlast his stablemate Hauraki (outside) in the G3 Craven Plate

Grand Marshal finished midfield in the aforementioned G3 Craven Plate and just like his two previous runs it showed he is progressing nicely towards his major Spring goal in the G1 Melbourne Cup. He won the G1 Sydney Cup in the Autumn so he probably won't even start to get warm here until it's all over and he does tend to race best with the sting out of the ground. Five starts at 2400m or beyond for two wins, a second, a third and a fourth.

Locky's Selections

2. Snow Sky

4. Our Ivanhowe
6. Mongolian Khan
16. Gust Of Wind

OTHER BETS

Honesta (Caulfield Race 4 No. 3) was unlucky not to claim the G1 Flight Stakes last start when she just missed Speak Fondly. That filly has form around Exosphere and Press Statement which is looking pretty hot right about now. All these fillies are stepping up to 2000m for the first time but this girl's sire Monaco Consul won a G1 VRC Derby and ran third in the G1 Caulfield Cup of 2010 so she has the pedigree to say she will see out the trip.

Sadler's Lake (Caulfield Race 6 No. 6) didn't see a lot of clear galloping room in the home straight last start (below) in the G1 Epsom Handicap so his four length ninth was better than the form guide would suggest. He drops a kilo in weight from that run too despite the fact he is dropping back to a G2 from a G1. He won the G3 Rough Habit Plate by almost two lengths over this trip during the Brisbane Winter Carnival.

Teronado (Randwick Race 3 No. 5) was another who caught the eye (above) in the G1 Epsom Handicap when he flashed home from last on the turn to finish sixth and ran past some big names in the process. His last 400m was the second fastest of the race and was only 0.06 seconds slower than that recorded by Winx. He needs a dry track and although his mile record reads badly his "failures" include a fifth in a G1 Australian Guineas and a fourth in a G1 Randwick Guineas.

Fell Swoop (Randwick Race 7 No. 5) is my pin-up boy and I'm glad to see him back because I just love this bloke. I like the fact that he's had a four week freshen up here because he played up a bit prior to his last start which was uncharacteristic and looked to me like a horse who was showing the signs of a long prep. He's won his last four and probably should have won his last nine in a row because he was desperately unlucky the day he was defeated. I've stayed solid all along and I'm not dropping off now.

G1 Caulfield Guineas Day - 10.10.2015

I tipped so badly last week that my audience stormed out and demanded his money back.

But it was worth it just to watch the bookies get absolutely smashed by the punters at Randwick with eight of the nine favourites successful and the other winner a well tried $3.60 second elect. 

It was also worth it simply to see James McDonald, John O'Shea and the entire Godolphin operation put on an absolute clinic with five Stakes winners including the G1 Metropolitan Handicap.

We also saw a few top quality horses strut their stuff with Exosphere winning as he pleased in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes followed by Terravista and his effortless victory in the G2 Premiere Stakes before Winks overcame another luckless run to dash away with the G1 Epsom Handicap.

Four majors at Caulfield tomorrow - the G1 Caulfield Guineas, G1 Thousand Guineas, G1 Caulfield Stakes and G1 Toorak Handicap - plus two G2's, two G3's and a Listed race plus we also have the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.

Who's Hot?

It's impossible to ignore trainer John O'Shea and the Godolphin Team after their five winners last weekend at Randwick. All were at Black Type level with the highlight being the victory of Magic Hurricane in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap.

* Unfortunately stable jockey James McDonald is unavailable this weekend after copping a six meeting careless riding ban

The Royal Blue will be chasing more Stakes prizemoney in Melbourne tomorrow with Thar (Race 1 No. 5), Contributer (Race 6 No. 4) and Shards (Race 9 No. 7) but they also have runners at Randwick and Kembla Grange.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny morning with the chance of a late afternoon shower.***

Caulfield Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Press Statement: In the last 10 years only two winners have returned more than $7.50. Six of the last nine were coming off a win at their previous run.

Press Statement cruised to victory last start (below) in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes. Prior to that he was a desperately unlucky fifth in the G1 Golden Rose behind Exosphere and Speak Fondly and that form is looking rock solid now. He's dominating the market but a few hotpots have been rolled in the last decade including Rich Enuff, Pierro, Denman and Court Command. The wide barrier (14) is my only concern.

You'll get some juicy odds if you like anything outside the favourite and recent winners All Too Hard (2012) and Starspangledbanner (2009) did return double figure dividends so let's start with a look at the traditional lead-up race the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Six of the last ten winners of this feature came off a top four finish in that race. 

Bon Aurum won the race (below) and he's come a long way in a short time since making his debut three and a half months ago in an Echuca maiden. Prior to that he beat Lizard Island and that colt has since romped in by three lengths. He's an adaptable type who can lead, sit close to the speed or come from the back but he has been up for a while and is trying to do it all in his first prep. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won this race twice in the last four years. 

Bon Aurum hangs on to edge out Tulsa in the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude

Tulsa was the eye-catcher behind Bon Aurum when he flashed home from last to just miss. He gives every indication that he's looking for 1600m now but like Press Statement he is going to have to overcome a horror barrier. Only one winner in the last nine years has drawn a double figure gate but given his racing pattern it may not be the end of the world because he's going to drift back anyway. 

Dal Cielo did well to hang on for third behind Bon Aurum and Tulsa last start after setting a pretty hot speed in front. If he can get softer lead tomorrow he'll give them something to chase but like many of these he is stepping out beyond 1400m for the first time so the journey has to be a query. You have to respect the stable though because Murray Baker has had Spring G1 successes at Caulfield in recent years with Lion Tamer and It's A Dundeel.

Sovereign Nation (7th beaten two and a half lengths) chased them all home that day and has since franked the form by winning the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes at his next start. That race has been an OK guide in the last few years. Whobegotyou (2008) is the last horse to complete the double but recent winners Cararra (2009), Pierro (2012) and Divine Calling (2013) all finished second in this race. 

Ready For Victory is becoming a costly conveyance because he's started $4.25 or shorter at all three runs this campaign without winning. He looks to me like a horse who is looking for at least 1600m because last start he had to be ridden hard the whole way and still didn't get warm until it was all over. I like the way he ran through the line and blinkers on first time might just switch him on.

Basset has form around Press Statement (below) via the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes. He's had an identical campaign this time in with just the one start over 1100m for a win then straight to the G1 mile. Peter Moody knows more about training winners than I do but it seems an odd preparation and I just wonder if he is seasoned enough to win this at just his fourth career start. On the plus side he will be close to the lead making his own luck

Of  the rest Tarzino won well last start but I have to query the form given the second and third placegetters were thrashed at Flemington last Sunday. Shards was no match for Press Statement last time out but he beat third easily and the Godolphin operation showed last week that their horses are always ready to peak on major race days. Rageese has form behind Exosphere, Speak Fondly and Press Statement so he has place claims. Lizard Island has been on the heels of Bon Aurum twice this prep and is proven at the mile after bolting in last start albeit in a Pakenham maiden. Last Bullet matched motors with Ready For Victory over the final stages last start and was less than two lengths from winner despite still being last at the 200m. He ran the fastest final furlong and only Tulsa had a better sectional time for the last 800m.

Locky's Selections

1. Press Statement

15. Tulsa
8. Sovereign Nation
10. Last Bullet

Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

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*** There are no an early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Fawkner: In the last 15 renewals of this race only three winners paid more than $7 and four of the last six winners came via the G1 Underwood Stakes and finished in the first two.

Kermadec didn't win by a big margin last start but if you saw the race (below) you'll know he won with authority and what looked to be a bit up his sleeve. The second horse Royal Descent has since gone within a nostril of winning last Sunday's G1 Turnbull Stakes and the seventh horse Hauraki (beaten five lengths) almost pipped Complacent last Saturday in the G3 Craven Plate. First time beyond 1600m is a question mark and he wouldn't want to get too far back either as this may be a sprint home.

Pornichet really gave Kermadec something to chase last start (above) and he looked home when he skipped clear topping the rise. That run should top him off nicely for this and let's face it he was never going to hit his peak until he got to the 2000m. He's three from three at this trip with his last being a dominant two and a half length victory in this year's G1 Doomben Cup. He's the likely leader in a small, w-f-a field which looks devoid of pace and that could be an advantage as we've seen in recent weeks.

Fawkner won this race last year and 12 months earlier claimed the G1 Caulfield Cup so he's shown an undeniable liking for this circuit. He's had the perfect preparation for this with a first-up victory over the mile in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes followed by a narrow second to Mourinho (below) in the G1 Underwood Stakes at 1800m. I loved the way he worked through the line and he looks like a horse crying out for 2000m. He has the ability to sit handy to the speed if they want to walk in front which is a big tick.

Contributer put in a much improved effort last start (above) running the second fastest final 800m of the race but it was impossible to make ground because it turned into a sprint home. He was one of the few closers to take any ground of the leaders and was only beaten two and a half lengths in the end so he gets a pass mark. He's improving with every run with the stable obviously looking to peak him in two weeks time for the G1 Cox Plate so a bold showing here wouldn't surprise. He's drifted from $6 out to $10 in early betting.

Criterion was second in this race last year and went on in the Autumn to destroy a top quality field (below) in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He then headed overseas for three starts and did manage to grab third in the G1 QEII Cup in Hong Kong so he is clearly a high quality animal. He is going into this having not appeared on a racetrack for more than seven weeks and I doubt the stable had this race in mind as their major Spring target so I expect he'll take plenty of benefit from the run. Still I won't fall of my chair if he runs a cheeky race.

Mongolian Khan was never going to be at his best until he got to 2000m+ so his first two runs this prep have been super under the circumstances. He's contested the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) and was just over a length and a half off the winner on both occasions. In the latter he recorded the equal fastest final 200m (11.65) with Fawkner. Won this year's G1 ATC Derby beating Hauraki, Volkstok'n'barrell and Preferment.

A quick look at the others and the next best is clearly Happy Trails but he has only won once here at Caulfield in 11 attempts and that was four years ago. He does however seem to like the 2000m at this time of year because he won last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes and the previous Spring he claimed the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Entirely Platinum looks the likely leader and could get some cheap sectionals in front but I just think the rest of these have many, many lengths on him. 

Locky's Selections

2. Fawkner
7. Kermadec
5. Pornichet

1. Criterion

Last Saturday was the first metro meeting this season that Chris Waller did not train at least a winning double but I guess if you're only going to win one race on the day it may as well be a G1 Epsom Handicap with Winx. With the focus shifting to Melbourne this week expect him to resume his domination of the Sydney ranks so I'll take at look at some of his better chances.

Tremezzina (Randwick Race 2 No. 6) drops back from the Listed Reginald Allen Quality won by Alart to a BM70 here so she does look well placed. She finished alongside Flamboyant Lass and Ocean Tempest in that race and they have since contested the G1 Flight Stakes last weekend with the former just over a length off the winner Speak Fondly. She's found the line really well in her two starts this campaign and looks ready to win here.

Ballet Suite (Randwick Race 7 No. 5) has had two runs back now and both have been good behind the likes of Sadler's Lake and Music Magnate. Third-up in her first prep she won at 1600m and third run in last campaign (below) she was a closing one and a half length fourth to Fenway in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes at 40/1. Back to fillies and mares grade she looks well placed here with just 55kg. She's two from two at the mile including one here at Randwick.

Good Project (Randwick Race 8 No. 2) beat Ballet Suite home last start when second to Music Magnate and that horse has form around the likes of Fell Swoop and Inz'n'out. He races earlier in the day so that will give us some sort of guide to this horse. He is a bit of a "non-winner" with just three victories from the 17 starts but he has been placed on nine occasions. He should get a cosy run behind the leader from barrier one and his Randwick 1400m record is good.

THE OTHER MAJOR RACES

Toorak Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Amicus is an early scratching ***

Many of these are coming via the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes so it may pay to have a look at that race again. Especially given that six of the last 11 winners have come through it including the last three in a row and all of them finished top five.

Stratum Star (1st) had to overcome a wide barrier to get up in the final bound and the way he finished the race off indicates to me that the extra 200m is no concern. While he has yet to win at this distance in three starts he has never missed a place including a close-up third in the G1 Australian Guineas last March. Disposition (2nd) meets Stratum Star 1.5kg better off here for his last stride defeat. Just the one start at 1600m for a narrow second to Rommel in the G2 W.A. Guineas and he has been placed at 1800m behind Moriarty in the G1 Kingston Town Stakes. 10 starts for nine top two finishes and a fourth. Strawberry Boy (4th) nearly pinched the race after getting away with a pretty soft first 800m (37.06) and he's a four time winner at 1600m including one at this track. Two starts back he finished a half length behind Winx when conceding her 3.5kg and he gets a nice turnaround in the weights from both Stratum Star (2.5kg) and Disposition (1kg). So too does Lucky Hussler (6th) who probably should have won the race. He ran into more dead ends than Shaggy and Scooby Doo and was clambering over heels all the way down the straight. It's remarkable he was less than two lengths off them at the end considering he went to the line under a stranglehold. He's a proven performer at the mile at the top level having finished a narrow second to Hucklebuck in the G1 Emirates Stakes at Flemington last November. He's been well tried in early markets.

Leebaz (9th) wasn't far away but he's trading on old form. His first ten starts yielded six wins and three seconds but his last 10 starts have produced just one win and two placings all at G2/G3 level. I'm looking elsewhere. Hopfgarten (12th) wasn't as bad as his finishing position might suggest. He was bottled up for most of the straight and he would have finished closer with clear galloping room because he was still closing at the end despite not being ridden out. Best longshot. Bull Point (14th) clearly doesn't have his heart in it at the moment and he might be better off pulling a milk cart. 

Looking at the other form lines Noble Protector is coming off a poor run in the G2 Let's Elope Stakes just as Allez Wonder was when she won at $41 in 2009. She was G1 placed in the Autumn behind Amanpour and Catkins in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes and boasts a second to Contributer but I can't entertain her. Ninth Legion was a half length third (below) to subsequent G1 Epsom Handicap quinella Winx and Sons of John two starts back in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes. On that day he beat home Strawberry Boy, Vashka and Messene who have all since run well. 

Kenjorwood will have to create a little bit of history to win because every winner in the last 30 years has come of a run in a Black Type race at their last start. On the plus side he has two wins and three placings from six runs at the trip with his only "miss" being a fourth behind The Cleaner two runs back in the G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes. Hi World will find this G1 easier than the w-f-a races he has been contesting. He drops to just 54.5kg here and two starts back at 1600m he was a tick over two lengths off Fawkner in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and prior to that was only a length and a half behind Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes. Flamingo Star has the Chris Waller polish and looks set to peak here fourth run back. At his last run at the mile he was just shaded by stablemate Strawberry Boy at level weights and meets him 1.5kg better off here. This time last year Akavoroun came of two average runs to finish a one length fourth in this race third-up at $13 and gets in 1kg lighter this year but he hasn't won for 15 months and his last nine starts have yielded just one placing.

* 10 of the last 11 winners paid $9 or less and eight of them returned $6 or less.

Locky's Selections

7. Disposition
4. Strawberry Boy
2. Stratum Star
11. Hi World

Thousand Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

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*** There are no early scratchings ***

Pasadena Girl won a G1 Champagne Stakes over the mile (below) at just her fourth career start. First-up this prep she rattled home from near last to finish a clear second to Stay With Me in the Listed Atlantic Jewel Stakes which has proved to be a red hot form race. She comfortably beat home Don't Doubt Mamma (4th), Haybah (6th) and Badawiya (7th) who have all since won. Last start in the G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude she was the best closer in a leader dominated race.

Miss Gunpowder won that race (below) after being allowed to cruise through her first 800m in a pedestrian 49.2 so it's no surprise she had a kick and was able to hold off all the challengers. I doubt she'll get an easy lead tomorrow because she'll have to push across from the outside gate and I can't see Badawiya letting her get there too easily and Stay With Me will probably press forward too from her good gate. Still she's won four from five so she's hard to knock. 

Payroll was a huge run in the same race (above) after hoop Jim Cassidy circled the field mid-race to sit outside the lead when he realised the leader was trying to stack them up. I thought she would fold faster than Superman on ironing day given the torrid run she had but she had the cheek to keep on kicking all the way down the straight. Jockey Jim Cassidy has won this race three times but not since 1999.

Stay With Me is a daughter of 2006 winner Miss Finland but history says she'll find it hard to emulate her famous dam because only one winner in the last 17 years has finished worse than fourth at their previous run. She was another like Payroll who took off early and endured a wide run with no cover (above) but I liked the way she attacked the line even she was beaten three and a half lengths. With a better run in transit she can figure.

Badawiya is on a six day back-up after an impressive two length victory last Sunday in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes. I don't think that contest had the depth of the other lead-up and the last time she met this lot she finished three and a half lengths astern and meets Pasadena Girl 2.5kg worse off at the weights. That's the only time in six career starts she has missed a top three finish and she has won three of her last four starts.

Jameka has been thereabouts at her two runs this time in around the likes of Pasadena Girl, Stay With Me and Miss Gunpowder. As a 2-y-o she beat the boys in a G2 Sires Produce in the Autumn at the Flemington 1400m so she should eat up the mile. Sagaronne could improve because first-up she never saw clear running room and second-up they were forced to ride her upside down due to the slow speed up front. Last time she got to the mile she was a three quarter length second in the G1 J.J. Atkins behind Press Statement. Super Cash enjoyed the run of the race behind Miss Gunpowder last start and although she worked to the line well there I think she was entitled to do a little more.

Locky's Selections

2. Pasadena Girl

7. Stay With Me
3. Sagaronne

8. Payroll


Spring Champion Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Loyal readers who took the tip will be pretty happy with themselves right now because two weeks ago I wrote:

Vanbrugh (Rosehill Race 5 No. 4) looks a stayer in the making and I've already taken $8 for him to claim the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in a fortnight because if he wins tomorrow (and both the bookies and I think he will) I won't get anything near that price.

After steering this colt to victory in that G3 Gloaming Stakes jockey Hugh Bowman stated "he feels like a Victoria Derby horse all over" and that's high praise from a man who has won the race three times in the last five years. If the bookies are to be believed he has a mortgage on this race because at around $1.80 he looks like starting the shortest priced favourite in 20 years. The stats sheet is against him though because no favourite has won this race since Platinum Scissors in 2002 and no odds-on favourite has won since Magic Of Sydney in 1996.

Too Good To Refuse is one of only two other runners under double figure odds. He bolted in on a wet track last start with 59kg in a Doomben 3-y-o open handicap over 1600m and three starts back he was only a length behind Honesta and that filly was very good last weekend in a G1. It's an unorthodox lead-up but he looks above average and he's the only one they've backed to beat the favourite ($5.50 into $4.80). Man Of Choice is the other and he closed well for third behind Press Statement last start and jockey Sam Clipperton said he "relaxed well and once he gets out to 2000m he'll be a very nice horse". Tatoosh finished a length and a half in front of Man of Choice on that occasion despite drawing the outside barrier and being snagged back to last. He made up many lengths in the run to the winning post. He's friendless in early betting getting out to $11 after opening at $8.50. 

Locky's Selections

1. Vanbrugh
4. Too Good To Refuse
2. Tatoosh
5. Man Of Choice