Emirates Stakes Day preview

The G1 Grand Slam is now no longer a possibility after Thunder Lady just missed getting us the coin yesterday in the G1 VRC Oaks but you can't win 'em all so it's back to the drawing board for one last crack tomorrow on what looks the toughest day so far.

I'll be focusing on the G1 Darley Classic because it shapes as the race of the day (if not the Spring) and the G1 Emirates Stakes looks a wide open affair. Those races are backed up by an impressive support card of four more Black Type races.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Michael Rodd has only had ten rides over the Flemington Carnival but has still managed to bag a winner on each of the three days so far - Bonaria, Hijack Hussy and Allelu. He also found time out in between to travel to Ballarat on Monday for one win from one ride.

He has four rides at Flemington tomorrow - Shining Brooke (Race 1 No. 14), Lazyaxl (Race 4 No. 14), Zonza (Race 8 No. 6) and Sweet As Bro (Race 9 No. 8).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day with the chance of a late shower. ***

Darley Classic (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee: Since this race went to G1 status in 2007 five of the seven winners had their last start at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate weekend, returned $7 or less, were 5-y-o or older and were last start winners.

"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead without too much trouble I would think. Moment Of Change to be handy so too Temple Of Boom and Driefontein. Lankan Rupee, Slade Power and Terravista will be up there too. The rest get back to midfield or worse.

Chautaqua is the find of the Spring Carnival. Two starts - both here at Flemington - for two explosive straight track wins by a combined margin of six and a half lengths. He ran slick time on both occasions (sub 1.09) and annihilated handy types in Temple Of Boom and Bounding. He steps up to G1 w-f-a for the first time so this is his stiffest test to date but he looks a future topliner.

Lankan Rupee was ridden aggressively last time out (below) and had to burn the candle at both ends so his effort to hang on and win was enormous. Sure there were excuses for many of the beaten brigade but take nothing away from this bloke. Back to Flemington is a big plus because he clearly isn't at his best at Moonee Valley. A four-time G1 winner including a two and a half length demolition job in the Newmarket Handicap with 56.5kg over this course and distance in March. 

Terravista was unlucky behind Lankan Rupee (above)  because he was held up at a crucial stage before savaging the line and he probably would have won in another two hops. Trainer Joe Pride has been quite bullish about this horse for some time and hoop Hugh Bowman is fresh off his win in the G1 VRC Oaks but he is an unknown quantity down the straight. Seven of his eight wins have been first or second-up but his form deeper into a prep (4:1-1-0) doesn't read as well.

Buffering sat up on the hot speed in the same race as Lankan Rupee and Terravista and he was only beaten half a length and battled away well to the line. He got a soft lead when he won this race last year (below) and he could get one again tomorrow. He's an old warrior who gives his all every time he goes around and is a must for exotics. $14 is quite frankly a ridiculous price.

Slade Power is the unknown quantity. He was unbeaten in three runs last prep including two victories at the highest level in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes and G1 July Cup. He's a winner of 10 of his 19 starts including nine at this distance and being from the UK the straight course holds no fears for him. He is a bit of a barrier rogue so it all depends on how he behaves but he is certainly good enough to win this if he has settled in OK and handles our track conditions.

Such is the quality of the field that the rest are $21+.

If you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics then going by the G1 Manikato Stakes formline Famous Seamus has to be in the mix given his slashing run from last on the turn to finish third. His only run here at Flemington was two years ago during Cup Week when he finished 13 of 20 beaten six and a half lengths by Unpretentious in the Listed MSS Security Sprint. Rebel Dane was another who had genuine excuses due to traffic problems and yet was only a quarter of a length away at the finish. Two starts here for no placings. Platelet finished last of twelve but was less than two lengths off the winner after a wide run and she is two from two at the Flemington 1200m. Temple of Boom sat three deep without cover and was beaten half a length and his Flemington "straight six" record is pretty good too (11:2-3-1).

What a fantastic race!

Locky's Selections

2 Lankan Rupee
10 Chautaqua
1 Buffering
13 Platelet

Other bets

Cadillac Mountain (Flemington Race 2 No. 14) was tipped on Oaks Day but Peter Moody scartched him to save him for this so I'll stay solid. He has found a good race here third-up after two solid efforts this time in over unsuitable distances. He wasn't beaten far on either occasion and there were excuses. Third run in his first campaign he won over 2000m and last preparation they saw fit to take on Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas and G1 Australian Derby and he wasn't disgraced despite not appreciating the wet tracks. $5 was bet.

Black Jet (Flemington Race 3 No. 14) has started four times at 1600m-1660m and has three wins and a third and he did win third-up last prep. He got run off his legs early last start at Moonee Valley but was doing his best work late and the step up to the mile and the big track at Flemington appeal because he'll get plenty of time to warm up for a big sprint finish. $12.

Rhythm To Spare (Flemington Race 7 No. 15) was Good in the G1 Toorak Handicap (below) where he flashed home from near last to finish fifth beaten just over a length. He should have finished closer because he ran into a bit of traffic in the home straight. Trainer Mike Moroney deserves a change of luck after tragically losing Araldo after the G1 Melbourne Cup and ten of the last fourteen winners of this race returned double figure odds. Opened at $16.

Amanpour (Flemington Race 8 No. 13) was narrowly beaten here on Cup Day and she has obviously come through the run OK because the stable has elected to back-up here. It's the same path followed by 2010 winner Well Rounded. She's a winner up to 1900m whereas many of these are on trial at a trip beyond a mile. I can happily play at the $7.50 that is on offer.

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Oaks preview

Some good winners tipped again to follow on from Saturday with G1 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist selected on top ($8.60/$3.10). I also had the Cup quinella ($87.50) among my top four selections with Red Cadeaux finishing second.

Unfortunately it was a sad end to the day but I'm here to give tips not a sermon. I'll leave that to the tree hugging, granola eating, cardigan wearing brigade.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

James McDonald was in good touch yesterday with two winners and a narrow second on Spy Decoder.

His best rides at Flemington tomorrow appear to be Postnthyme (Race 1 No. 10), Aerobar (Race 3 No. 7) and Atmospherical (Race 7 No. 15).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

VRC Oaks (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Thunder Lady: 14 of the last 19 winners came via the G2 Wakeful Stakes. Eight completed the double including five in the last 10 years. Only four winners in the last 30 years have returned more than $7.50 and none since 2002.

"The Speed Map" says - I think the stablemates Fontein Ruby and Lumosty will lead but I think they are both a query at the 2400m so I don't think they'll be out to break any land speed records. Imperial Lass and Yesterjoy should be handy too. Go Indy Go, Crafty and Thunder Lady drift back and perhaps Abduction will be ridden a bit more quietly in an attempt to see out the journey.

Lumosty was impressive winning the G2 Fillies Classic on Cox Plate Day but now jumps straight from 1600m to 2500m and she has to be suspect at the staying trip. Her sire Fastnet Rock was a multiple G1 winning sprinter and her dam never won beyond 1400m. Having said that it's hard to knock them when they are in form. She just missed the in-form Afleet Esprit fresh and then bolted in at the provincials. Forgive the G1 Thousand Guineas run as it was a funny race tempo wise.

Go Indy Go hasn't won since claiming the G1 Champagne Stakes (below) but she has been racing like a stayer this time in. Her last three starts have seen her get back and attack the line and she looked good against the boys in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day. Her mother Elegant Eagle is a daughter of Zabeel and a full sister to Golden Eagle who is the mother of G1 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed so the 2400m shouldn't be a problem.

Crafty just keeps getting better as the distances get longer. She ran home strongly behind stablemate Fontein Ruby in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes and again in the G3 Caulfield Classic where they took on the boys and beat them. Her breeding gives every indication she will run out a strong 2400m because her mother Spirited Dancer is a half sister to Peinture Bleue who threw G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Peintre Celbre.

Set Square is an exciting prospect. She made her debut just seven weeks ago when finishing third in a Maiden on a Monday meeting at Donald. Two starts and two wins later she is one of the top fancies in an Oaks. I do wonder if she is seasoned enough for a race like this so early in her career but her win on Caulfield Cup Day in the Listed Ethereal Stakes was dominant.

Thunder Lady seems timed to the minute for this much like her stablemate Kirramosa who won this race last year off a similar prep. She goes in at her sixth run this campaign and has finished top five at all five runs. She won the G2 Wakeful Stakes on Saturday going away and was only three and a half lengths of Hampton Court in the Listed Dulcify Quality at Randwick on Epsom Day. He went on to claim the G1 Spring Champion Stakes a week later.

The rest are double figure odds but if you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics then Yesterjoy has the pedigree to figure here given she is a daughter of Tuesday Joy. That mare was a four time G1 winner including one over the 2400m of the BMW and her dam Joie Denise won a G1 Queensland Oaks. Trainer Clarry Conners has won this race three times and jockey Jimmy Cassidy a staggering five. Game of Fame was only three and a half lengths off Preferment and Nozomi in the Listed Geelong Classic and that duo ran first and third in last Saturday's G1 Victoria Derby. Golconda was strong at the end of the G2 Wakeful Stakes and wasn't far away from Thunder Lady. Fontein Ruby was disappointing in the same race but she does meet all her rivals from Saturday better at the weights here and the stable is in good form. I'm risking Abduction.

Go wide because a roughie usually runs into the trifecta.


Locky's Selections

5 Thunder Lady
3 Crafty
9 Game Of Fame
2 Go Indy Go

Other bets

Cadillac Mountain (Flemington Race 2 No. 10) has found a good race here third-up after two solid efforts this time in over unsuitable distances. He wasn't beaten far on either occasion and there were excuses. Third run in his first campaign he won over 2000m and last preparation they saw fit to take on Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas and G1 Australian Derby and he wasn't disgraced despite not appreciating the wet tracks. $4.60.

Cradle Me (Flemington Race 6 No. 13) is worth a peanut each-way at double figure odds. She's a winner of three from five second-up and her first-up run was full of merit when she was in the wrong part of the track. In her last six runs she has not missed a top two finish including two wins and a second from three goes at 1100m. $10.

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Melbourne Cup preview

Some good winners tipped on Saturday with Bonaria ($33.50/$8.10) claiming the G1 Myer Stakes and Preferment ($8.50/$2.20) winning the G1 Victoria Derby. I also had the Derby quinella ($32.30) and the G1 Mackinnon quinella ($22.40) among my top four selections and just missed the Mackinnon trifecta with Spillway finishing fourth.

At least I am finding some form at the right time.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Damien Oliver had a good day on Saturday with two winners and four placegetters from eight rides. He's now won the G1 Victoria Derby and the G1 Mackinnon Satkes five times and he's won the G1 Melbourne Cup and the G1 Oaks three times apiece. I think it's fair to say he thrives here during the Spring Carnival.

Tomorrow at Flemington he has several good chances including Law (Race 5 No. 1), Fitna (Race 6 No. 13), Mutual Regard (Race 7 No. 11) and Jazz Song (Race 9 No. 18).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the small possibility of a shower. ***

Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current market

*** Sea Moon is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Protectionist: 29 of the last 30 winners carried 56.5kg or less. Only one winner in the last 25 years has paid more than $21. 12 of the last 15 winners had finished top four at their previous start. The last 20 winners had their previous start in Australia. The race has only been won by a mare seven times in the last 50 years - and three of those were Makybe Diva.

"The Speed Map" says - I have given up trying to guess what they are going to do in this race. Every year I have a speed map worked out and fifty metres after the start it has gone out the window.

Protectionist for me here. He profiles well being an international who has had a prior run in this country. He's not badly weighted and he has a 3000m win in Europe on severely affected ground so he should stay the trip. Jockey Ryan Moore is on a high after claiming the G1 Cox Plate aboard Adelaide and his fast closing fourth under 59kg in the G2 Herbert Power caught the eye.

Admire Ratki the next best. He was breathtaking in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) and the stable has always said he would be better suited at 3200m than 2400m. He's a winner up to 3400m in Japan and he handles firm tracks. Only four horses have carried 58.5kg or more to win in the last 60 years but having said that the spread in the weights these days isn't as big.

Red Cadeaux seems to thrive in Australia. This will be his fourth start in the race and he has finished second twice before including an agonising photo finish loss to Dunaden (below) in 2011. He's also been placed in Japan's big G1 two mile race the Tenno Sho as well as the G1 Dubai World Cup and he's won a G1 Hong Kong Vase. He's a seasoned traveller and I think he represents great value for exotics at $21+.

Mutual Regard has had five runs at this distance for two wins and two seconds and his last start win in the Ebor Handicap was impressive. That race did produce 2007 Cup placegetter Purple Moon. In form hoop Damien Oliver to ride.

That's my Top Four but I could make a case for quite a few more. Lucia Valentina was the best closer outside Admire Ratki in the G1 Caulfield Cup. Signoff was impressive on the weekend in claiming the G3 Lexus and has no weight. Fawkner has had a similar preparation to last year's winner Fiorente and he was brave in the G1 Cox Plate when he had to cart the rest of the field up to The Cleaner. Who Shot Thebarman and Araldo look like they will stay all day. I think Junoob will be better suited by the big track at Flemington and G1 Sydney Cup placegetter Opinion will run out a strong 3200m. As always a tough race.


Locky's Selections

5 Protectionist
1 Admire Ratki
4 Red Cadeaux
11 Mutual Regard

Other bets

Khutulun (Flemington Race 2 No. 7) has won four from nine with two placings and you could make an argument she should have won two starts back as well when she suffered bad luck in running. Her first five career runs obviously showed the stable enough to warrant a crack at last season's G1 Queensland Oaks and apart from that blemish all her other runs have been good. Opened $16 but that has disappeared. Now $9.

Fitna (Flemington Race 6 No. 13) demolished an average field last start but did it pretty easily. Prior to that she chased home G1 Victoria Derby aspirant Magicool at Seymour. The step up to 1400m looks ideal because she is a daughter of G1 winning miler Carry On Cutie. $10.

Stipulate (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) was brilliant first-up in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap before solid runs in the G1 Underwood Stakes (two and a half lengths off Foreteller and Happy Trails) and the G1 Turnbull Stakes (three and a half length fifth to Lucia Valentina). He didn't see a lot of daylight in the G1 Caulfield Cup so I'm overlooking that run. $8.

Iconic (Flemington Race 9 No. 4) wasn't far away in that busy finish in the G1 Manikato Stakes two weeks ago. At his previous appearance he was on the heels of Rubick, Platelet and Overreach in the G2 Schillaci Stakes. His only appearance here at Flemington was during this week last year when he finished second in a race down the straight. Well weighted and well backed in early markets. $8.

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VRC Derby Day preview

Favourite backers beware - this has been a tough day to find winners in recent years with bolters getting up like Appearance ($53), Smokin' Joey ($46), Fiveandahalfstar ($21) and Fontelina twice at $10+.

In fact over the last two years there have been 18 races run and only three favourites have saluted the judge. Eleven of the winners paid $7 or more with eight of those returning double figure odds.

So let's hope I find us some winners because the returns could be massive.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Hard to go past Joao Moreira. Since claiming a Black Type treble at Randwick four weeks ago he has ridden 10 winners from just five meetings in Hong Kong including a quaddie, a treble and a double.

Tomorrow at Flemington he has several good chances including Azkadelia (Race 1 No. 15), Brazen Beau (Race 4 No. 2), Signoff (Race 5 No. 9), He's Your Man (Race 6 No. 8) and Atmosphere (Race 7 No. 11).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a strong chance of rain in the morning and showers in the afternoon with the possibility of hail. ***

Victoria Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Atmosphere : Only one favourite has won in the last nine years whereas five have paid double figure odds. All had finished top three at their last start. Trainer Trent Busuttin won this race three years ago with Sangster.

"The Speed Map" says - Hard to say. With the three-year-olds stepping up to 2500m for the first time previous racing patterns may not be much of a guide.

Hampton Court is a worthy favourite after chasing down First Seal and Sweynesse last time in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (below). Sweynesse has since run a bottler in the G1 Cox Plate last week and the way this bloke blew past him the previous run gives every indication he will relish the 2500m, especially given the suicidal tempo of the aforementioned contest.

Preferment is another who looks like he will eat a mile and a half. He looked like a beaten horse in the Listed Geelong Classic before rallying late to just miss. He's a son of Zabeel so that's also a plus in a staying feature. He may still be a maiden but he is only now getting to a distance that suits. Blinkers go on so that's a good sign it's D-Day for this bloke and his jockey has won this race four times previously.

Moonovermanhattan was solid in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley last weekend and he has the advantage of being an on-pace runner whereas most of his main dangers here will be coming from the second half of the field you would think. Yet another that looks as if he will run out a strong 2500m.

Atmosphere has a lot of upside. Trainer has won this race before. Jockey is arguably the best on the planet. Drawn well to get a good run. Every time they have raised the bar he has responded. Keeps getting better as the distances get further. Can he win a Derby as a maiden at just his fifth career start?

Bondeiger was a bit unlucky last start after copping a bump that hampered him badly near the turn but he still picked himself up and finished the race off well. From the inside gate he's going to get all the favours here and his closing sectionals last weekend were those of a horse who will have no problems with the journey.

Best of the rest is probably Nozomi who beat Preferment at Geelong and Gouldian who beat the same horse last start although he does go straight from 1600m to 2500m which is a concern.

Locky's Selections

13 Preferment
1 Hampton Court
9 Bondeiger
11 Atmosphere

Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Side Glance is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Foreteller, Happy Trails or Criterion : Since the turn of the century nine of the 14 winners of this race came via the G1 Cox Plate and eight of them were unplaced. Only one favourite has won since 2006.

"The Speed Map" says - Brambles, Mourinho and Amralah go forward. Star Rolling and Rising Romance can be handy too. Happy Trails, Foreteller, Hawkspur, Moriarty, Spillway and Criterion get back. Not sure what they do with He's Your Man???

He's Your Man is the fresh horse on the scene having not started since his triumph in the G1 Epsom Handicap (below). He got in on the minimum weight that day in a handicap so the question is can he make the step up to weight-for-age but that race looks strong with Hooked (3rd), Pheidon (6th) and Spy Decoder (12th) all subsequent winners.

Criterion has never missed a top two finish at 2000m from four attempts and his Flemington record is sound with a fourth here on this day last year in the G1 Victoria Derby. He also ran second to Shamus Award in the G1 Australian Guineas at this track. He didn't seem to handle Moonee Valley last Saturday so his effort to finish seventh beaten just a length and a half was admirable. Once he did get balanced he savaged the line and this assignment does look much easier.

Rising Romance looked home in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) before being nabbed by Admire Ratki on the line. I like the fact that they never intended to run in a Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup and have instead targeted this race. She didn't have a gutbuster last week like a few of these others and the freshen-up to 2000m back from the 2400m means she'll be strong at the end. Only two mares have won this race in the last 23 years - concern?

Happy Trails was close up in a busy finish in last week's G1 Cox Plate (below) where the first six over the line finished within three quarters of a length of each other. Last Spring he won the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance. He always seems to find trouble in his races due to his racing pattern but he is undeniably talented as shown by his two G1 wins and a close second in last year's G1 Cox Plate and this year's G1 Underwood Stakes.

The rest are $11+ but the best of them appear to be Foreteller who was also good in last week's G1 Cox Plate (above) when fifth beaten just over half a length after copping a bump at the top of the straight. His stablemates Hawkspur and Moriarty ran well in the G1 Caulfield Cup as did Brambles. Spillway can improve back to 2000m and the last two runs of Star Rolling weren't bad and he is two from three at this track and distance. Amralah the knockout horse?

Locky's Selections

15 Rising Romance
8 He's Your Man
2 Happy Trails
11 Spillway

Other bets

Our Vespa (Flemington Race 1 No. 1) looked a bit stiff in the G3 Guineas Prelude when he nearly fell. It's amazing he finished the race at all and yet he still had the cheek to run past a few in the straight. Prior to that he was five from seven and had never missed a drum. $9.

Woodbine (Flemington Race 3 No. 10) was pretty good in the G1 Epsom Handicap given he sat up on a hot speed and only got tired late. He was beaten just over three lengths on that occasion and back to the 1400m in an easier race with the minimum weight he looks a worthy betting proposition. $7.50.

Bonaria (Flemington Race 8 No. 6) is a Flemington mile specialist with three wins from four attempts. There were genuine excuses last time out and earlier this prep she was on the heels of Commanding Jewel and Dear Demi. W-f-a suits as she will be meeting many of these on much better terms than she has been in the handicaps. $26.

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Cox Plate preview

The Cox Plate. The best two minutes in sport. Enough said.

Only eleven days to "The Cup"...

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Blake Shinn is reaping the rewards of staying in Sydney while other jockeys chase Spring riches down south. In the last three weeks he has ridden 15 winners at a strike rate of 34.9%.

He has three rides at Canterbury tonight and six at Rosehill tomorrow and all appear to have genuine winning chances.

Moonee Valley

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy couple of days with a slight chance of some light rain. ***

Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee, Buffering or Terravista : 13 of the last 15 winners returned $8 or less. In that same period only one winner had not run a place at their last start.

"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead Lankan Rupee and Bounding. Moment of Change will probably press forward from out wide and Terravista won't be far away. Temple of Boom, Not Listenin'tome and Angelic Light can all be in the front half of the field too. Lots of pace here. It might suit the horses who get back and run on like Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus, Iconic and Platelet.

Terravista has only missed a top two finish once in the last year and that was on a bog track in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. His other eights starts resulted in a second and seven wins including the G2 The Shorts, the G3 Liverpool City Cup and the G3 Southern Cross Stakes. Unbeaten in six attempts at 1200m or less.

Lankan Rupee has a pretty good record over the last 12 months too. He's had ten starts for seven wins including the G1 Oakleigh Plate, G1 Newmarket Handicap and G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. He has been placed in his three other runs - coincidentally right here at Moonee Valley. Granted he's only been beaten a lip at his last two and he had excuses the other time because he pullled up with "the thumps" (cardiac arrhythmia) but you have to wonder if he isn't quite as effective here. One more chance?

Buffering is the defending champ and is coming off a victory in the G1 Moir Stakes (above) where he took care of many of his rivals here tonight (Lankan Rupee, Rebel Dane and Angelic Light). He is as honest as the day is long and has four wins and two placings from eight starts at "The Valley" including three wins at this distance. I can't have him on top but he's an old warhorse and I love him so if he does manage to hang on I'll still be cheering.

Rebel Dane will get last crack at them you would think with so much speed on paper. He was the best closer in the G1 Moir Stakes (above) especially given they didn't run overly fast time. If he gets a cold run off the pace given his good draw he could be the one coming late and run over the top of them.

Platelet hasn't missed a top two finish in her last five runs and her last three second-up runs have resulted in a win in the G2 Gilgai Stakes and seconds in successive G3 Irwin Stakes. Has one win and two seconds here at Moonee Valley plus a one and a half length fifth to Buffering in the (then) G2 Moir Stakes two years ago.

The best roughie is probably Not Listenin'tome if he can recapture his previous form.

Locky's Selections

2 Lankan Rupee
5 Rebel Dane
1 Buffering
7 Terravista

Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - The Cleaner : Only two favourites have won in the last 11 years. Seven of the winners in that same period paid double figure odds ($11 - $26). Nine were male and seven had placed at their last start.

"The Speed Map" says - The Cleaner to lead. Adelaide to push forward from a wide gate. Fawkner and Royal Descent to be close from inside draws. Suspect Side Glance and Silent Achiever will want to be handy too. Criterion, Happy Trails, Foreteller and Sacred Falls go back. Don't care where they go with Guest Of Honour because he couldn't win if he started now. Not sure about Sweynesse and Wandjina. Of late they have been most effective ridden cold but do they try to take advantage of their featherweights? One thing is for sure - with The Cleaner here we won't get a trot-and-canter affair here like we did last year.

Fawkner is in red hot form and has been trained to the minute for this with two great runs under his belt including a great fresh run when he just missed Dissident in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes before taking out the G1 Caulfield Stakes (below) a fortnight ago. He dispatched many of his rivals here tomorrow in that race (Criterion, Side Glance, Happy Trails, Sacred Falls and Foreteller) and is drawn to get a great run.

Criterion was great behind Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (above) when a fast finishing second and he has a real sense of timing about him. He's at his fifth run in and last prep at the same stage he won the G1 ATC Derby. He was the subject of good early support in the market this week ($9 to $7.50) and although regular hoop Hugh Bowman misses the ride due to suspension they lose nothing in replacement jock James McDonald. He's already won the G1 Caulfield Guineas and G3 David Jones Cup and was unlucky not to lift the G1 Caulfield Cup.

Sacred Falls is yet to win beyond 1600m but he did run a slashing second to It's A Dundeel in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (below) in April. He stormed home from well back off a strong tempo (just like he'll get here tomorrow) and was strong at the finish. In form hoop Zac Purton to ride. He got too far back in the G1 Caulfield Stakes but produced the best finish in a muddling run race.

Silent Achiever also contested that race (above) and didn't seem to finish the race off anywhere nearly as strongly. She has one win from one attempt here at Moonee Valley but she has not placed in eight subsequent Melbourne runs. Nash Rawiller comes back from Hong Kong to take the ride and that could be significant because he's only ridden the mare three times for two wins - the G1 Ranvet Stakes and the G1 BMW.

Royal Descent is so honest and consistent but she's a bit of a money muncher. Her three-year-old form reads well with four wins and two placings from seven starts including a mammoth ten length victory in the G1 Australian Oaks. Since then however it's been 13 runs for no wins, seven seconds and a third. Many of those seconds were in top notch races like the G1 George Main Stakes (twice), G1 Doncaster Mile and the G1 Epsom Handicap (below) but she hasn't won in 18 months and she was well beaten over this trip in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in the autumn.

Happy Trails was second in this race last year and should get a nice smother and drag into the race from his good draw - provided he doesn't run into dead ends like he did two starts back in the G1 Turnbull Stakes where he went to the line effectively untested. His last start fourth to Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Stakes was better but he'll need to improve.

Adelaide is the unknown quantity a bit like Admire Ratki last week so I am wary. Three wins and four placings from seven starts. Three of those were at this trip for two wins and a second. He's shown he can travel with a win in the G1 Secretariat Stakes (below) in the U.S. and an unlucky defeat last time out in France in the G2 Prix Niel. He's also run in Ireland and England so this is his fifth country in just eight starts.

The Cleaner will be the crowd favourite and he will give his backers a good sight for a long way. I can't see anyone taking him on because it would be a suicide mission and if he is allowed to bowl along and then pour on the pressure from the 700m mark he will be hard to catch. He is clearly the best performed Valley horse too (6:4-1-1).

The rest are $21+ but the best of them appear to be Foreteller who was a closing fourth in this race last year and he did win the G1 Underwood Stakes just two starts back if you can forgive his below par effort last time out. Side Glance was thereabouts last start in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and he did win last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes a week after running sixth in this race. Almalad is one from one here after winning the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes but Sweynesse is the pick of the three-year-olds for mine. He tasted defeat for the first time last start but there were excuses and it was a strong staying performance.

Locky's Selections

2 Fawkner 
1 Sacred Falls
6 The Cleaner
11 Adelaide

Other bets

Larrikan Prince (Rosehill Race 2 No. 2) is worth a tickle each-way at big odds. He was forced to drop back on debut after drawing a wide barrier. He charged to the line late so the extra 100m here appeals. He beat home Salerno that day and that colt has subsequently won. Opened $21.

Speediness (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 6 No. 1) is four runs into his prep. At the same stage last Autumn he went within a whisker of claiming in the G1 George Ryder Stakes (below). He went super fresh in the G3 Bobbie Lewis and just missed dual G1 winner Trust In A Gust last start in the G1 Toorak. Meets him a half kilo better off here. Second in this race last year to Toydini. Sacred Falls was third. Opened $4.80.

Opinion (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 5 No. 7) finished second in the G1 Metropolitan splitting Junoob and Araldo and both those horses were competitive in last saturday's G1 Caulfield Cup. Also ran second to The Offer in the G1 Sydney Cup and the G3 Manion Cup. Looks well weighted here. Rider Zac Purton has combined with this stable to win the last two G1 Doncaster Handicaps and is fresh from his success aboard Admire Ratki in last weekend's G1 Caulfield Cup. Opened $3.30.

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Caulfield Cup preview

Well I hope I go a bit better tomorrow than I did last week because I had an absolute Barry Crocker. I went like a busted on Guineas Day.

I'm not the only one having a bad time of it though because Caulfield Cup fancies have been dropping like flies this week. One more scratching and we won't even have a capacity field.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Kerrin McEvoy picks himself after a Black Type treble here last weekend. In the last six weeks he has claimed Spring features aboard Lucia Valentina (G1 Turnbull Stakes & G2 Tramway Stakes), Rubick (G2 Schillaci Stakes), Sweynesse (G3 Gloaming Stakes & G3 Spring Stakes), Earthquake (G3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes), Abduction (Listed Reginald Allen Quality) and Hosting (Listed Weekend Hussler Stakes).

Tomorrow at Caulfield he has some plum rides including Kumaon (Race 4 No. 1), Generalife (Race 5 No. 8) and Caulfield Cup favourite Lucia Valentina (Race 9 No. 16).

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current market

*** Dandino, Bande, Dear Demi and Gris Caro are early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Brambles or Lidari : 25 of the last 30 winners have carried 55kg or less including nine of the last 11. Eight of the last nine winners returned between $8.50 and $17. Four of the last five winners came through the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Only two mares have been successful in the last 17 years.

"The Speed Map" says - Those with early speed and good barriers will want to take advantage of that fact so I see Seismos, Lidari and Green Moon going forward. Sea Moon, Big Memory and Junoob will probably press on too from their wide draws in an effort to get in close to the fence. Brambles up there too. Should be a good tempo.

Lucia Valentina is coming off a strong win in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) where she came from well back in a race dominated by the on-pace brigade. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy is in good touch (see the "Who's hot?" segment above) and her breeding and her run in the G1 ATC Oaks last Autumn give every indication she will eat up the mile and a half.

Lidari meets Lucia Valentina 1.5kg better than when he just failed to hold her off a fortnight ago in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (above). He's a two time winner at the trip (although not in Australia) and he's had a top level w-f-a prep and now gets into a handicap with a featherweight. The good barrier should have him handily placed in the race.

Brambles only got into the field this morning with the late withdrawal of the Japanese raider Bande due to a tendon problem. Like his stablemate above he was close-up in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and gets a pull in the weights from the winner Lucia Valentina. He claimed the G1 Queensland Derby at this trip in June of 2012 then spent almost two years on the sidelines due to injury. His form this prep has been solid including a victory two starts back (with 60kg!) beating Big Memory and Signoff who finished one-two in last Saturday's G2 Herbert Power Quality.

Admire Rakti has to carry a stack of weight but his run from well back in the field to claim fourth in last year's G1 Japan Cup (below) finishing just ahead of G1 Caulfield/Melbourne Cups winner Dunaden indicates he's not out of place here. I must admit though I don't know a lot about him.

Junoob is the best fancied of trainer Chris Waller's four-pronged attack on this race thanks to his win in the G1 Metropolitan (below) at Randwick two weeks ago. That was a big effort under 58kg especially after getting flushed out way too soon. He still managed to hold on despite being a sitting shot and his previous run saw him defeat Criterion who went really well here last Saturday when a narrow second to Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Stakes.

Who Shot Thebarman is a horse I like from a G1 Melbourne Cup point of view because he looks like a dour staying type who will run all day. I just wonder if he has the dash to win this because he took a day and a half to get to the lead last start. He'll be running on late and the stable can't be faulted.

Rising Romance gets in with no weight here and she did beat Lucia Valentina the last time they met over 2400m in last April's G1 ATC Oaks (below). All three runs this prep have been sound and she returns to a handicap here after w-f-a form. She has to contend with an awkward barrier but has in-form hoop James McDonald to off-set that.

Hawkspur ran favourite in this race last year (below) and finished an unlucky seventh after getting too far back and copping interference. Rider Damien Oliver has won this race four times but not once since the turn of the century. I just don't think he is in as good form this year but a bold showing wouldn't be a total shock.

The rest are $21+ but the best of them appear to be The Offer who is finally getting up to a trip that suits but he will need a bit of give in the ground because he felt his legs last time out on the firm Flemington track but he was still OK in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Big Memory scraped into the field with victory in last weekend's G2 Herbert Power Quality. I just query the strength of that form and he'll also need to improve his racing manners because he wobbled round the bend at Caulfield like a stoned unicyclist. Stipulate ticks a lot of boxes in terms of weight/form and David Hayes and Dwayne Dunn combined to win this race in 2006 with Tawqeet. His G1 Turnbull Stakes run was good when he came from well back. I think that is the best form race.


Locky's Selections

14 Lidari
15 Lucia Valentina
13 Stipulate
19 Brambles

Other bets

Sweet Idea (Caulfield Race 6 No. 3) won the G2 Missile Stakes fresh, then beat all bar the flying Dissident in the G1 Memsie Stakes before a two length fourth in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start when she chased home Trust In A Gust who has since won the G1 Toorak Handicap. Back to her own sex here and well weighted considering I think she'll give a good sight for a long way. Opened $3.80.

Anatina (Caulfield Race 10 No. 3) went pretty close to claiming the G1 Galaxy second-up last prep and her run when resuming was full of merit when she took on the boys and was just run down late by the highly talented Fast 'n' Rocking when conceding him two kilos. Back to fillies and mares grade suits and the set weights plus penalties conditions see her well in at the weights. Opened $2.50.

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