All Aged Stakes Day 2015

It's taken a lot of baby oil and some tender massage from Chris Waller to get over the low blow bookies dealt me last weekend but I'm ready to go again and make some more ballsy calls this week.

We'll be racing on a much better surface tomorrow although there will still be some give in the ground and the rail is out eight metres for the majority of the circuit so it may pay to watch the first couple of races and assess if the fence is the place to be as it was last weekend. 

I think it will be. My selections are based around this. I hope I'm right!

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Tony Gollan trained four winners at Doomben last Saturday then had another winner on Sunday at the Sunshine Coast and again at the same track on Wednesday.

His best chance at Doomben tomorrow looks to be Trakstar (Race 3 No. 5) and he could bag the quinella with the former Peter Gelagotis trained galloper Hvasstan (Race 6 No. 1) and Tornado Miss (Race 6 No. 11). 

Randwick

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of late rain. ***

The All Aged Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: The last winner to pay double figure odds was El Mirada ($31) in 2001. Six of the last nine favourites were successful. 

"The Speed Map" says - I think Wandjina will try to cross and lead from out wide. The other three-year-olds Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick have drawn well and could take advantage of that. Laser Hawk is always up near the lead. So too Dissident. Chautauqua and Terravista may not get as far back as usual given it is 1400m. I expect the rest will drift back.

Chautauqua comes off victory (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. He overcame a track that was favouring on pace horses to sweep from the back of the field in testing conditions. It was the run of a serious animal. He has won previously over the 1400m in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas. Coincidentally that was his fourth run last Autumn. There's a lot to like about this bloke - he handles wet or dry, he can do it on a straight track or around a bend, he can win in Sydney and in Melbourne and he hasn't missed a top two finish in his last six starts. He looks the testing material.

Terravista was third behind Chautauqua (above) last start and he appeared to have every possible chance. Interestingly his form up to 1200m reads 10:7-0-2 but his form beyond 1200m reads 5:2-1-0 and one of those wins was at 1300m. Having said that he is looking like a horse who wants the 1400m now. My concern is that his only win over the trip came here in November 2013 in a BM85. I'm risking him but that's good news if you like him because it seems everything I tip then jump off comes out and wins - Kermadec, Chautauqua, Grand Marshal, the list goes on.

Lucky Hussler was a dominant winner of the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley three weeks ago. The third horse Griante ran a great race here last weekend when a narrow second to the superior wet tracker Avoid Lightning in the G2 Sapphire Stakes. He put paid to them in a twinkling on that occasion just as he did last Spring (below) in the G3 Moonga Stakes over this distance on Caulfield Cup Day. He's been a revelation since transferring to the Darren Weir stable with two wins and four placings from six starts. I haven't been able to find a spot for him in my top four but he terrifies me. 

Wandjina has had a freshen up since his gutsy win (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas in early March. G1 Doncaster Mile winner Kermadec chased him home that day but granted he didn't have a lot of luck. Prior to that this fella won the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes over this trip at his first run since finishing a game tenth (beaten just three and a half lengths) in the G1 Cox Plate last October when he clearly didn't see out the trip. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times and Damien Oliver has won it twice. Two of the last three winners of this race were 3-y-o's but only one other juvenile has won since Flying Spur in 1996.

Shooting To Win (below) comes out of the G1 George Ryder Stakes which is turning out to be the form race of the Autumn. Between them the four horses that beat him home have run 1-2-3 in the G1 Doncaster Mile and won the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He pulled up after that race with back soreness so the Snowden's elected to bypass the G1 Doncaster Mile. He's since had a barrier trial and the stable is pressing on so that's a good sign. He's a G1 Caulfield Guineas winning colt so I can't imagine they'd be risking his record (and potential stud value) unless he was a genuine winning chance. He's not here for the exercise.

Dissident can't be left out of calculations going on his win (below) in the G1 Orr Stakes just two starts back. G1 Sydney Cup winning jockey Jimmy Cassidy jumps back on board for the first time since steering him to two wins and a second from four rides last Autumn including the G1 Randwick Guineas. He should be able to give him the gun run from barrier six and the Moody stable has enjoyed Black Type success already this Autumn with Plucky Belle and Hi World. He's had six starts at 1400m and has never missed a place and he's a four time G1 winner including two at this trip and yet they're still betting double figure odds.

Scissor Kick hasn't raced for eight weeks and he does seem to produce his best runs fresh. He's had two goes at 1400m for a narrow second (below) to Hallowed Crown in the G1 Golden Rose after being wide throughout and a one and a half length fifth to the same horse in the G2 Hobartville Stakes two months ago. He didn't have a lot of luck that day either but was still just behind the likes of Kermadec and Shooting To Win. The stable accepted for the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint last weekend but scratched to target this instead and he's unbeaten here at Randwick.

A quick look at the rest who are all $26+.

Fontelina was good from the back of the field when fourth behind Chautauqua and Terravista last start (see video above) and he always seems to run a good race third run in to his preparation. A dry track would be a plus. Laser Hawk broke through for his first win in three years when he claimed the G3 Newcastle Newmarket last start. This is much harder but he has trialled really well since alongside Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick and he looked hard held. Weary is racing like a tired horse. Generalife will probably find this too tough and his best form has been at Rosehill and not at G1 w-f-a. Lucky Hussler gave him weight during the Spring and crushed him. Famous Seamus does not appreciate wet tracks and has just two placings from seven attempts at 1400m. He also has to overcome a horror barrier. Rebel Dane finished a three and a half length fifth in this race 12 months ago and hasn't won for 18 months. He's had three placings in 11 subsequent runs. Barrier eight won't be much help to him either.

Good race. Tough race. I've had to leave some quality horses out of my selections but I can only tip four!

Locky's Selections

11 Shooting To Win
1 Chautauqua
2 Dissident
13 Scissor Kick

Other bets

Press Report (Randwick Race 3 No. 5) will appreciate a big drop in class here after contesting the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes last start behind Chautauqua, Terravista etc. and prior to that she did win against the boys and the older horses. In fairness it was a fairly weak race but apart from it her last six runs have been at G1 or G2 level. From the good draw she can be close to the speed and if the rain holds off she looks well weighted on the minimum of 54kg. Opened $11.00.

Tarquin (Randwick Race 4 No. 4) is in a stable that is making a habit of winning these Autumn 2-y-o features. His run in the G1 Sires Produce (below) was full of merit given he was wide with no cover for most of the race and only tired late. Tomorrow he draws a good barrier and gets a better surface. Prior to that he was unbeaten. Stretching to 1600m should be no concern because his sire was placed in a G1 Kentucky Derby and his dam is a full sister to champion stayer Fantastic Light. Jockey James MacDonald could win on a rocking horse at the moment. Opened $6.00.

Malice (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) will appreciate the firming track conditions and he has won two from three second-up. He should get a lovely trail here from barrier six and he has a win and a third from two goes at the 2000m. This time last year he was a just over a length behind Arabian Gold in the G3 Frank Packer Plate over this course and distance. His fresh run when second in the G3 Doncaster Prelude was good and he easily accounted for Leebaz on that occasion and can only take improvement from the run. Opened $4.80.

Fast 'n' Rocking (Randwick Race 7 No. 4) drops back from the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes to a race that is much easier He was also nominated for the G1 All Aged Stakes but trainers Hayes and Dabernig elected for the softer option. The stable is on fire having claimed the G1 Queen Elizabeth with Criterion last weekend. He's stormed home and been close up in both the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and the G1 Galaxy this campaign and I think he can break through here at good odds in a wide open race. Opened $13.00.

Burbero (Randwick Race 8 No. 2) comes via that red hot G1 George Ryder Stakes mentioned above in relation to Shooting To Win. That was the only time in his last nine starts he's missed the quinella but a two and a half length sixth behind the likes of Real Impact, Criterion and Kermadec reads well for a race like this. His big weight is offset by the claim for the apprentice and Brodie Loy has four wins and three seconds from his last seven rides on the horse. Opened $5.50.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

The Championships 2015 Day Two

Mongolian Khan got me the chocolates last weekend at $6.50 in the G1 ATC Derby when he simply outstayed some more fancied rivals. Thank God for him or I would have been singing for my supper.

This week I'll be looking for horses that can race handy to the speed because that was the pattern on the wet track last week, the rail at Randwick is out six metres and we're on a five day back-up on a track that has a history of serious problems when it is rain affected.

Given last week's results I'll also be looking for value and avoiding hotpots.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Chris Waller isn't exactly hot but he bounced back into the G1 winners circle last weekend when Kermadec claimed the G1 Doncaster Mile. Amazingly that was just his second winner at the highest level since the Spring with the only other being G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Brazen Beau.

It's funny how sometimes a drought breaker like that can lead to the floodgates opening and he looks poised to go on with it at Randwick tomorrow with runners like Winx (Race 6 No. 2), Ballet Suite (Race 6 No. 10), Catkins (Race 7 No. 2), Who Shot Thebarman (Race 8 No. 4) and Adelaide (Race 9 No. 9). 

Randwick

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Contributer is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - N/A: The statistics are largely irrelevant for this race because it has not previously attracted this type of field. Prior to the boost in prizemoney it was a much lesser race.

"The Speed Map" says - Fiveandahalfstar to lead Aomen and Tosen Stardom. I expect Beaten Up and Criterion will be handy from inside draws. To The World should settle midfield. Happy Trails, Red Cadeaux and Spillway will get back. The same applies to Adelaide, Royal Descent and Lucia Valentina from their awkward barriers.

No particular order - just trying to keep all the horses with similar form lines together in order to help structure the narrative around the replays!

Tosen Stardom (below) chased home Contributer last start in the G1 Ranvet Stakes and I expect he will take plenty of benefit from his first run on Australian soil. The Japanese horses can never be underestimated however and jockey Tommy Berry has been talking this horse up ever since he first sat on his back and he does boast a win on soft ground. The question is how does a "yielding" track in Japan compare to a genuine slow track in Australia.

Lucia Valentina also contested the G1 Ranvet Stakes two starts back (above) and was the best performed of the local breds behind the aforementioned duo. She followed that with a three length seventh to Hartnell in the G1 BMW. I like the fact that she's had a run over the mile and a half before dropping back to the ten furlongs because it will steel her for a hard run on a slogging track. She's never missed a place at 2000m or on a rain affected track.

Criterion was a narrow second last start (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and that form looks pretty good now because he split the subsequent G1 Doncaster Mile trifecta in Kermadec (3rd), Real Impact (1st) and Royal Descent (4th). His previous run over the unsuitable 1300m of the G1 Canterbury Stakes was also pleasing when he beat all bar Cosmic Endeavour and Catkins. He won the G1 Australian Derby at this track last year on a Heavy 9.

Adelaide (below) can't be dismissed lightly because at his last start he was also first-up and also tackling 2000m and he managed to win the G1 Cox Plate. The run was enormous because he circled the field from last around the tight Moonee Valley turn and left a string of serious racehorses in his wake including some of his rivals here like Happy Trails, Criterion and Royal Descent. The stable thinks he's at his best on top of the ground but his wet track credentials look OK to me. Three wins and a second from four goes at 2000m.

Happy Trails was only three quarters of a length behind Adelaide (above) in that G1 Cox Plate and maybe should have finished closer with a bit more luck. He went OK in the G1 Doncaster Mile on Easter Monday considering he doesn't really handle wet ground but the five day turnaround is a concern. Having said that, seven days after his run behind Adelaide in the Cox Plate last year he won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes so he has shown he can handle a quick back-up.

Spillway beat Happy Trails last start (below) when claiming the G1 Australian Cup. I think 2000m is as far as he wants and given that I'm thinking this is going to race like a 2200m-2400m contest I'm risking him here. He tends to space his victories and his best form is on firm tracks. 

Red Cadeaux is another who comes via the G1 Australian Cup (above) and although most thought he would go to the two miles of the G1 Sydney Cup (for which he also accepted) trainer Ed Dunlop has elected to run here. I think the 2000m will be too short (he's never won below 2400m) but he could run into the trifecta because he has placed five times in eight goes at this distance. He'll be strong at the end too if it becomes a slog because it is well documented that he is a three time G1 Melbourne Cup placegetter.

Royal Descent is another like Happy Trails who is backing up after the G1 Doncaster Mile. Her run (below) was full of merit given that she conceded the 3-y-o Kermadec four kilos and was trapped wide throughout. The top five in that race really cleared out from the rest and that is usually a good sign but as I mentioned last week she has not won in 17 starts since the G1 Australian Oaks almost two years ago.

To The World chased home Hartnell (below) in the G1 BMW last start and that horse will start the shortest priced G1 Sydney Cup favourite since Tie The Knot in 1999. His best form is around 1800m-2000m so his effort in that race was good considering he probably just got found out the last little bit and it was his first run since late December so I expect he will strip fitter. Back to 2000m where he has two wins and a second from three runs he should be more effective. He's untried on wet tracks but then again so was Kermadec last week.

Fiveandahalfstar, Beaten Up and Aomen will probably find this too tough although Beaten Up was only a length and a half behind Hartnell and To The World (above) in the G1 BMW so perhaps he has run himself back into some sort of form.

Cracking race.

Locky's Selections

10 To The World
11 Tosen Stardom
9 Adelaide
2 Contributer

Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current market

*** Red Cadeaux is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Protectionist: Seven of the last 11 winners have carried 55kg or more and returned odds of $6.50 or less.

"The Speed Map" says - There are quite a few in here that I think will drift back - Protectionist, Dominant, Who Shot Thebarman, Akzar, Like A Carousel, Renew and Grand Marshal. That means that the tempo could be muddling. If Au Revoir, Big Memory and Don Doremo go forward then Hartnell looks like he'll get the run of the race.

Hartnell put the writing on the wall last start (below) with a strong staying display to win the G1 BMW.  He easily accounted for the Japanese raider To The World on that occasion and that horse is the favourite for tomorrow's G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He also left Who Shot Thebarman and Protectionist in his wake and he meets both those horses much better at the weights under the handicap conditions. He's had three starts since coming to Australia for two wins and a second to Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. He's won at 3200m and he's a four time winner on affected ground. Hard to knock.

Who Shot Thebarman was the best of the closers (above) in the aforementioned G1 BMW. He made his run with Protectionist and was stronger to the line for mine. He meets that horse 3.5kg better off at the weights too. Having said that he meets Hartnell 2.5kg worse off for being two lengths behind him at the finish. One thing we do know for sure about this bloke is that he will run out a strong two miles going on his third placing (below) in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup.

Protectionist (above) of course won that race and he is crying out for this journey. All his runs so far this prep have been aimed at getting him ready for this and you would have to say that while they haven't been flashy they have been "pass marks". The worry is the weight he will have to concede to his main rivals but the wet track brings him back into it a bit because he revels in soft ground. He's in my top selections but he won't be on top.

Everything else is big odds including the Hong Kong visitor Dominant but I can't have him because he has no wins beyond 2400m and his wet track form reads poorly. I'm not potting the horse I just don't think he has conditions to suit here. If you're looking for roughies you could do worse than throw Grand Marshal into your exotics. He has won up to 2800m and has wet track form and his effort here on Monday when third behind Tremec in the G2 Chairman's Handicap was gritty if not explosive and six of the last seven winners came via that race. Big Memory has had eight runs beyond 2400m for two wins and four placings and he won't know himself with just 52kg.


Locky's Selections

6 Hartnell

4 Who Shot Thebarman
1 Protectionist
8 Big Memory

Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

*** Fenway and Adrift are early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Ballet Suite: 14 of the last 18 winners were at single figure odds. 16 finished top five at their previous run but only two of them completed the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes/G1 Australian Oaks double. In the same period only two fillies have completed the G1 VRC Oaks/G1 Australian Oaks double and 13 favourites have been beaten.

"The Speed Map" says - Candelara leads. Rustic Melody handy. Thunder Lady, Savaria and Ballet Suite to drift back from bad barriers. Winx, Gust Of Wind and Wildenstein should go back too. Sweet And Speedy, Wine Tales and Zarzali sit midfield.

Winx will start a shorter price here than Thunder Lady and Ballet Suite despite finishing behind them last start (below) in the traditional lead-up race the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. She did cop some interference at a crucial stage in the straight however and was finishing as well as any of them. Prior to that she took on the boys in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes and raced away to win by nearly two lengths from Hauraki. That form is looking pretty good now.

Thunder Lady will also eat up the 2400m going on her run (below) when second in the G1 VRC Oaks during the Spring Carnival. She's been patiently handled since and looks to be ticking along nicely towards this judging by her fast finishing third (above) in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. John Sargent is an astute Kiwi trainer who knows how to get fillies ready for these 3-y-o classics having won the 2013 G1 VRC Oaks with Kirramosa and the 2012 G1 Queensland Oaks with Quintessential. She'll get back and have to weave a passage and that may not be the place to be. 

Ballet Suite was just behind Thunder Lady in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and was finishing just as well but she also looks as if she will get back in the second half of the field and have to fight her way through the ruck. If that doesn't concern you then she ticks a lot of boxes. She's placed on a slow track, she's a daughter of High Chapparal so the distance shouldn't bother her, prior to last start she'd strung together three wins on end and Coolmore have engaged the services of their top jockey in G1 Cox Plate/G1 Melbourne Cup winning hoop Ryan Moore.

Savaria comes off a win in the G1 NZ Oaks on a soft track and it was very impressive. She was held up for a long way down the straight but when she saw daylight she really let down like a good horse. She won going away in the end and really attacked the line despite the fact that jockey Hayden Tinsley was pretty kind to her the last little bit. The problem is Daffodil (2009) is the only filly in the last 30 years to win this race off a last start run in NZ.

Candelara is looking to become the fifth filly in 14 years to claim the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes/G1 Australian Oaks double. She has a lot in her favour. She has drawn a great barrier and has the gate speed to make use of it. She's the likely leader on a track that I think will be difficult to make up ground on. Jockey Hugh Bowman is coming off a winning double here last weekend and he has won this race twice previously. This Baker family from NZ does make a habit of coming over here and pinching our coin with their 3-y-o's too - think It's A Dundeel, Lion Tamer, Atlante, Harris Tweed and most recently Mongolian Khan. 

Of the rest I think Rustic Melody is consistent and handled her first go on a wet track well when she fought hard for second in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes behind Candelara. Zarzali is crying out for 2400m but the question is can she run it fast enough? 

Locky's Selections

5 Candelara
4 Savaria
9 Rustic Melody
10 Ballet Suite

Other bets

Catkins (Randwick Race 7 No. 2) is likely to be at a backable price here given the presence of Noble Protector and First Seal. The former is having her first go in Sydney and the latter is a filly I admire but she was found to have blood in one nostril after her last start defeat. I'm going to take them both on and hope that this bonny mare can finally breakthrough for a much deserved G1 victory. She's well in at w-f-a, can race close to the lead, handles affected ground and has a genius in the saddle. Trainer goes OK too. Opened $4.80.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

The Championships 2015 Day One

The $3M G1 Doncaster Mile. Will favourite Hallowed Crown overcome the extreme outside draw to become the fifth 3-y-o in 10 years to win the race? Or will Pornichet give Gai Waterhouse a record eighth victory? 

Maybe it will be another trophy going to Japan if Real Impact can supply James McDonald with his sixth G1 in as many Sydney metro meetings. Let's not discount Kermadec, Royal Descent or Sacred Falls either - the latter two are absolute mudlarks and trainer Chris Waller is looking for his fifth win in the race in eight years. 

Sweynesse and It's Somewhat have to be in the mix following last weekend's dominant performance by the Godolphin stable, plus in form mare Suavito with a featherweight and an inside draw. Add noted wet tracker Arabian Gold and we have a cracking race on our hands.

Oh yeah and there are three other Group 1's. I forgot to mention that.

It's wet too.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

It has to be Joao Moreira. He doesn't come down here often but when he does he usually walks away with a winner or two. Last time he was in Australia he claimed the G1 Newmarket Handicap and the Listed MSS Security Stakes at Flemington. On VRC Derby Day he won the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and the G3 Lexus Stakes. His last visit to Randwick saw him steer home the winners of the G1 Epsom Handicap, the G2 Roman Consul Stakes and the Listed Dulcify Quality all on the same day.

He has a full book of 10 runners at Randwick tomorrow (barring scratchings) but his best chances look to be Grand Marshal (Race 3 No. 10), Pittsburgh Flyer (Race 5 No. 3), Sweet Idea (Race 8 No. 10), Royal Descent (Race 9 No. 6) and Wine Tales (Race 10 No. 2). 

Randwick

*** As of 4pm yesterday afternoon the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for rain. Possibly heavy falls. ***

The Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current market

*** There are no scratchings at this stage ***

"The Scriptures" say - Royal Descent: In the last 11 years only two winners have paid more than $11 and yet only three favourites have been successful. Eight of them carried 54.5kg or less. Six of them came off a top four finish in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. Four were trained by Chris Waller.

"The Speed Map" says - Should be a truly run race. Ninth Legion will be near the front and I expect Real Impact and Cosmic Endeavour will try to cross from their wide gates. Ditto Hooked and Pornichet. It's Somewhat will be in the first half of the field from barrier four. Pace should be genuine.

Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Sacred Falls, Royal Descent, Cosmic Endeavour, Hallowed Crown, Pornichet, Arabian Gold, Rudy and Plucky Belle.

Jockeys given permission to ride 0.5kg overweight - Dwayne Dunn (53kg), Craig Williams (52kg), Corey Brown (50.5kg) and Sam Clipperton (50.5kg).

Most significant weight drop from last start - Puccini (-7.5kg), Rudy (-7.5kg), Hooked (-7kg), Leebaz (-7kg), It's Somewhat (-6.5kg), Suavito (-6.5kg), Ninth Legion (-6kg)

Hallowed Crown is coming off a placing over 2000m in the G1 Rosehill Guineas just as Sacred Falls did when he won this race two years ago. That was only the second time he has failed to win in eight starts with his only other "failure" being a two and a half length fourth to Brazen Beau in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. His only go at the mile was right here at Randwick two starts ago (below) when he claimed the G1 Randwick Guineas. Some might question that form now but you can only beat what you're up against. Horror barrier but he has a good jockey to offset that.

Kermadec (2E) has been unlucky at both of his previous runs - probably because he was carrying my money and it's well known that I could stop the Bullet Train. He never saw clear running room in the G1 Australian Guineas then bombed the start before flashing home (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. He carries 6kg - 6.5kg less here than he did in those two races but he needs two scratchings just to get a run.

Real Impact impressed in his first run in this country (above) when claiming the G1 George Ryder Stakes. His best form is on firm tracks and he has never won on rain affected ground which is probably why he is the only one of the top fancies to drift ($7.50 out to $9) in early betting. I still can't entirely dismiss him because the Japanese do win a lot when they travel their horses and his aforementioned last start win was dominant. He looks well in with just 55kg too.

Pornichet looked pretty good last Saturday winning the G3 Neville Sellwood Stakes and he clearly hasn't taken any harm from the run because the stable is pressing ahead with the seven day back-up. Three of the last five winners of this race were dropping back from 2000m to 1600m. It's a theory trainer Gai Waterhouse swears by and she has won this race seven times so maybe we should pay attention.

Royal Descent has had five starts here at the Randwick mile for five seconds in the G1 George Main Stakes (twice), a G1 Epsom Handicap, a G2 Chelmsford Stakes and last year's G1 Doncaster Mile (below). Surely she has to be in your quinella? Her career best performance came right here at Randwick two years ago when she won the G1 ATC Oaks by 10 lengths on a Heavy 10. On the downside she hasn't won in 16 subsequent runs but she has managed eight placings in Black Type races in the meantime. Magic man Joao Moreira to ride. Maybe that could be the key to breaking her drought.

Everything else is $15+ and history suggests they rarely win at those odds but a roughie does usually lob into the trifecta and give it a bit of value. Sacred Falls has won the last two of these and loves a wet track. Trainer Chris Waller has won this race four times. Arabian Gold has been well backed and has good wet track form with five wins from six attempts. She's a three time winner here at Randwick and a four time winner over 2000m so she will be strong at the finish. Rudy is a duck so the wetter the better. Luke Tarrant travels down from Brisbane for just the one ride on the program. He drops 7.5kg on his last run and is fourth run in just as he was when he won the G2 Villiers Stakes here over the Randwick mile last December. It's Somewhat didn't like the firm surface last time out and will appreciate the sting out of the ground. He'll also get a better run in transit from barrier four instead of being three wide facing the breeze. He drops 6.5kg on that run. Suavito has won her last four on the trot including a victory over Dissident (below) in the G1 Futurity Stakes. She drops 6.5kg from that run and she won't know herself with just the 50.5kg. Three starts on wet tracks for just one second is a worry.

Locky's Selections

6 Royal Descent
14 Pornichet
10 Hallowed Crown
12 It's Somewhat

T.J. Smith Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: Five of the last eight winners paid $5.50 or less. Three of the last four favourites have won.

"The Speed Map" says - Tiger Tees bounces onto the fence and Rain Affair and Lord Of The Sky to come across from wider out and join him. Lankan Rupee should lob in a good spot. The outside four - Fontelina, Chautauqua, Terravista and Fast 'n' Rocking - usually go back anyway. Sweet Idea should get a good run just off the speed. Famous Seamus could get buried back in the ruck from the inside gate. Don't know where they go with Press Report. Don't much care either.

Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Lankan Rupee, Terravista, Tiger Tees and Rain Affair

Chautauqua ran into trouble behind Brazen Beau (below) when a fast finishing second in the G1 Newmarket Handicap last start but it wouldn't have affected the result. Prior to that he'd won three of his last four and placed second to Terravista at his only other start in the G1 Darley Classic. The concerns are the wet track and the fact that he may be a better horse the Melbourne way of going. He's had four runs in NSW for a win in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas and a second in the Listed Gosford Guineas on a Heavy 10. His only other run in the wet was a four length seventh to Sidestep in the G2 Royal Sovereign Stakes.

Terravista on the other hand handles the wet and is a Randwick specialist. He's unbeaten in four starts here at Headquarters including three at this trip. He has three wins and a second from five wet track appearances and his only failure was when they tried to stretch him to the 1500m of the G1 George Ryder Stakes last year when he was at the end of his campaign. He's won his last three second-up starts and his effort to run third in the G1 Newmarket Handicap (above) was good given no horse has won that race fresh since the First World War.

Lankan Rupee won this race last year (below) in similar atrocious conditions and if you forgive him one bad run in the G1 Newmarket and go back to his dynamic performance in the G1 Lightning Stakes he has to be right in this because he demolished subsequent G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Brazen Beau on that occasion. There were excuses last start because he pulled up with a strained pectoral muscle. How well he has overcome that and just how much it has affected his preparation remains to be seen. 

Sweet Idea also contested this race last year (above) and was soundly beaten. She did take it to a new level however at her most recent start when she easily won the G1 Galaxy. This is a must stronger field however and at w-f-a she is only getting two kilos from the big guns. On the plus side she's won three from four here at Randwick including two over the 1200m and she's never missed the quinella second-up. She does have some wet track form too but that is going back to her 2-y-o season. Her two most recent efforts on affected going have been poor.

Everything else is $26+ and while one of them might fluke a top four finish I can't warm to any of them on a bog track.

Locky's Selections

2 Terravista
3 Chautauqua

1 Lankan Rupee
10 Sweet Idea

A.T.C. Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Preferment: 10 of the last 14 winners paid $6.50 or less and came via the G1 Rosehill Guineas but only three completed the double.

"The Speed Map" says - Going on last week's run in the G1 BMW it looks as if Hampton Court will lead. Mongolian Khan to be handy and I expect they will be more positive on Ruling Dynasty this week from the better barrier. Preferment showed good tactical spped last start so they may look to go forward from the outside gate. Volkstok'n'barrell, Hauraki, Omeros and Quick Strike the stalkers in behind. Tactics will be crucial here.

Best wet trackers in saddlecloth order - Volkstok'n'barrell and Mongolian Khan

Preferment was just outsprinted when a narrow second to Volkstok'n'barrell (below) in the G1 Rosehill Guineas last start. Having said that I still liked the way he ran through the line. He gives every indication that the step up to 2400m won't trouble him especially given he is already a winner of the G1 VRC Derby in the Spring. The knock is that the last horse to complete the double was Mahogany in 1994. His first three career starts were on wet tracks and while he didn't win any of them he was placed twice and those were run over unsuitable distances ranging from 900m to 1400m.

Volkstok'n'barrell was too good for them (above) in the Rosehill Guineas and his wet weather credentials are terrific. Last September he won the G3 Bonecrusher Stakes at Ellerslie by four and a half lengths on a Slow 8. He has a win and a third (at 1200m) from his only two other starts on affected ground. The last two winners of the G1 Rosehill Guineas have gone on to claim this race but apart from them only two others have completed the double in the last 20 years. He sprinted dynamically to win at 2000m last time but can he produce that at the end of a slogging 2400m on a bog track?

Mongolian Khan won the G1 NZ Derby (below) at this distance two starts back when he simply outstayed Volkstok'n'barrell and he's unbeaten in three starts on wet tracks. Granted he looked a bit flat when fifth in the G1 Rosehill Guineas last start but trainer Murray Baker says he may have needed the run as he gave the horse five days off following his Derby triumph. Baker won this race with Nom Du Jeu in 2008 and again two years ago with It's A Dundeel so he knows what he's talking about. The horse has a great strike rate with six wins from eight starts. He's a winner. I like backing winners. They tend to win.

Hauraki really caught the eye last weekend when he sprinted through and dashed away with the G2 Tulloch Stakes. The problem is that race has produced just two of the last 19 winners of this feature and only one of them completed the double - Stracraft in 2004. Jockey James McDonald is in great touch and he has been an unabashed fan of this horse for some time and he is quite bullish about his chances tomorrow. The final 400m is the query. Many a horse can sprint quickly at the end of ten furlongs but can't run a mile and a half.

Of the rest I think the next best is Ruling Dynasty. He has had a setback with a foot abscess appearing and bursting just as quickly earlier in the week but the stable is pressing on so he must be OK. He got too far back from a wide gate last start behind Hauraki but he hit the line like a dour staying type. He can be closer tomorrow from barrier four. Omeros was good in the same race but he did get a lovely run and this might just be coming a bit too soon for him at just his fourth career start. Quick Strike is crying out for 2400m but the question is can he run it fast enough? 

Locky's Selections

3 Mongolian Khan
1 Preferment
8 Ruling Dynasty
5 Hauraki

Other bets

The Cleaner (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) was only run down late when fourth in the G1 Australian Cup (below) and that was a race where the first three came from well back. Trainer Mick Burles has swapped the blinkers for a visor in the hope that he won't get ambushed but will see them coming instead. I love this bloke because he always gives you a sight and every time you back him you know you're going to be in the thick of it for a long way. Opened $3.30.

Supara (Randwick Race 2 No. 9) ran third in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes at her last start and she was on the heels of current G1 ATC Oaks favourite Winx and subsequent G2 Tulloch Stakes winner Hauraki. That colt will run close to favourite in tomorrow's G1 Australian Derby. Three starts on rain affected tracks for three seconds. Opened $8.50.

Grand Marshal (Randwick Race 3 No. 10) has four runs under his belt now and should be ready to peak. His two best runs last campaign came at his fifth and sixth runs when he won both times. One of those was a 2800m race at Flemington on Cup Day so the 2600m holds no fears. At his only other prep in this country his fifth and sixth-up runs resulted in a win and a second. Opened $7.00.

English (Randwick Race 6 No. 7) was only three quarters of a length behind Vancouver (below) in the G1 Golden Slipper and that colt would be odds-on here. Seven of the last 15 winners of this race (46.7%) were trained by Gai Waterhouse. Tommy Berry has already claimed the first leg of the 2-y-o Triple Crown and I think he can win the second here. Opened $4.40.

Zarzali (Randwick Race 10 No. 10) took on older horses and the boys at her last start and she still smacked them by four lengths. Granted that was a much weaker race than this but she was off a three week break and jumping from 1850m to 2400m at just her fourth career start on a Heavy 8. She's dropping back to 2000m here but has had a five week freshen up and let's face it come Race 10 this could be a real slog fest and she  gives the impression that she'll stay all day. Opened $8.50.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

William Reid Stakes / BMW Day 2015

The third and weakest day of Rosehill's 3-day carnival IMO and somewhat of a let down after last Saturday's bumper card but there are still some good types going around and plenty of winners to be found.

It will be a softish track after the course copped in excess of 35mm of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday but fortunately they have had some good drying weather the last few days so it won't be an absolute bog.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Trainer Mick Kent only has a small team but his strike rate of late has been phenomenal. In the last 19 days he has had 17 runners and has notched seven wins. Last weekend he had three metro runners for one winner (Scratchy Bottom) and two placegetters (Written and Aggregator) and the winners continued at Geelong on Sunday and Pakenham yesterday.

He has two runners at the stand alone Mornington meeting tomorrow - Alittle Loose (Race 4 No. 9) and Epingle (Race 9 No. 7). 

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Rising Romance is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - N/A: Due to the race dates for the Sydney Carnival changing in recent years due to the inception of "The Championships" the history of this race is somewhat irrelevant. Six of the last seven winners came via the G1 Ranvet Stakes but previously there was a two week break and few will do the seven day back-up here.

"The Speed Map" says - Fast Dragon the leader. Hampton Court could take it up too with the light weight but only if he turns up in the mood to race. Silent Achiever will probably roll forward from her wide barrier. Hartnell should get a good run just off the speed. Ditto Lucia Valentina. The rest will drift back.

To The World is from Japan. That should scare the hell out of you. I know it frightens the living daylights out of me. They travel their horses all over the world and they usually just win. Think Real Impact in last Saturday's G1 George Ryder Stakes. He's had 10 starts for four wins, four seconds and a two and a half length fifth in the G1 Japan Derby. His only failure was when they tried to stretch him to the 3000m of the G1 Japan St Leger. He's never missed the quinella in four first-up runs. At his last start he came off a two month break to run second over 2500m in the G1 Arima Kinen (below) behind Gentildonna - a seven time G1 winner and two time Japanese Horse of the Year.

Hartnell opened $4 but that was quickly snapped up. He's had just the two starts in Australia and was dominant in winning the G3 Sky High Stakes last time out following up on his slashing first-up second behind Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below). You could make an argument that he would have beaten his stablemate had the runs been reversed and that form is arguably the best in the country at the moment. This bloke has won up to 3200m so the journey should present no problem and from the good barrier he should get the run of the race.

Lucia Valentina was tipped here last week and only w-f-a star Contributer and Japanese raider Tosen Stardom beat her home. She was beaten just under a length in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup behind Admire Rakti (below) so she has shown she can be competitive with the international raiders. That was also her fourth run into her campaign. Her only other run at 2400m was an unlucky third in the G1 ATC Oaks last year when she got too far back. Trainer Kris Lees would have been pleased to see the rain during the week because she handles it better than most.

Protectionist is getting up to a trip that suits now after runs in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and the G1 Australian Cup (below). Some people will fret over the outside barrier but given that he's going to drift back it shouldn't be a problem. The 2400m may still be too short for him and I think the G1 Sydney Cup on the bigger course at Randwick in two weeks time will be more his go. Still, it's hard to entirely dismiss the internationals when we get up to these trips because the locals do seem to struggle.

Silent Achiever has been solid if not flashy this prep chasing home the flying Contributer each time. The last two years she has gone into this race at her fourth run for a win last year and a narrow second to Fiveandahalfstar in 2013. Fourth run in last Spring she was a close-up third behind Adelaide in the G1 Cox Plate (below). She has a real sense of timing about her and she has an affinity for Rosehill. Six starts here - all in G1's - for two wins (Ranvet, BMW), a second (BMW), a third (Rosehill Guineas), a fourth (Ranvet) and a fifth (Ranvet).

They represent the top five in the market but of the others although Opinion isn't suited by the w-f-a conditions his only start at the Rosehill 2400m resulted in a second to The Offer in the G3 Manion Cup last year. He was good last start in the G3 Sky High Stakes when he ran past all bar Hartnell. Who Shot Thebarman was good in that race too and he has had seven starts at 2400m or beyond for four wins and a third in a G1 Melbourne Cup. Extra Zero ran out of his skin in the G1 Australian Cup (above) and he is ultra consistent. In his last 18 starts he has only missed a top three finish twice in a sequence that stretches back to February last year. He'll get a good trail from the inside barrier too.

Locky's Selections

7 To The World
8 Hartnell
10 Lucia Valentina
4 Opinion

Moonee Valley (TONIGHT)

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for the chance of a shower tonight. ***

William Reid Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Rebel Dane: Nine of the last 12 winners paid $5.50 or less. Black Caviar is the only female to win in the last seven years.

"The Speed Map" says - I expect Galaxy Pegasus, Earthquake and Vezelay will try to take advantage of their good barriers and light weights. Angelic Light is drawn to get a lovely run here. It Is Written won't be too far away. If the pace is on look for Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus, Bel Sprinter, Vain Queen and Peron to be charging late. But I can't see this being run at breakneck speed so on-pacers look advantaged.

Angelic Light ran really well last Spring over this course in the G1 Manikato Stakes (below) without much luck. She's had seven starts here at the Valley for three wins and three placings including two wins and two seconds from five goes at the 1200m. Her only "miss" was a fourth behind Buffering, Lankan Rupee and Rebel Dane in the G1 Moir Stakes beaten less than a length. Her first-up form is pretty good (4:1-1-2).

Rebel Dane also contested the G1 Manikato Stakes (above) and was another member of the "if only" brigade. The record books will say he ran fourth beaten around a quarter of a length but he was just one of the many hard luck stories. He's had five first-up runs and he won his first three before running second to Lankan Rupee in the G1 T.J.Smith Stakes at his fourth attempt. His most recent first-up run resulted in a half-length third in the G2 Missile Stakes at Randwick last August when he chased home last weekend's G1 Galaxy winner Sweet Idea. 

Famous Seamus has had just one start here at Moonee Valley for a third in the G1 Manikato Stakes last October (above) and he was unlucky not to win given he didn't see daylight until it was practically all over. Trainer Noel Mayfield-Smith dodged the big weight and the wide draw in the G1 Galaxy last weekend to come here at w-f-a conditions. He's been well backed early ($21 into $14) and he's my best roughie.

Vain Queen ran on strongly for fourth in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and she meets both Earthquake and It Is Written a kilo better off at the weights for beating them home. She should improve away from Caulfield too because her record there is terrible (5:1-0-0). Her record at other tracks makes much more impressive reading (8:6-0-0) and she's one form one here at the Moonee Valley 1200m.  Just don't back her for the place. She either wins or runs fourth. 

Earthquake is a very good filly and she's probably paying the price for her outstanding two-year-old season because although her overall record is pretty good (11:5-2-2) you'd have to say her 3-y-o season has been disappointing (6:1-1-2). Her only try against older horses was two starts back in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (above) and it was an average run. She improved last start back to 3-y-o fillies grade with a big weight but she still has to prove she can match it with the big guns. 

Of the rest I think the next best is It Is Written because he loves Moonee Valley - seven of his 10 career wins have come here. Three starts back he split Mourinho and Dissident in the G2 Australia Stakes at this track and distance. Peron has ability and was good first-up but the barrier and the pattern look to be against her here.

Locky's Selections

7 Angelic Light
2 Famous Seamus
1 Rebel Dane
6 It Is Written

Other bets

Under The Louvre (Mornington Race 8 No. 3) caught the eye in the G1 Oakleigh Plate when flashing home for second fresh beating home the aforementioned Vain Queen and Earthquake (see video above). He's never missed a place second-up and won his only start here at Mornington over this distance. He hasn't missed a top three finish in his last seven starts. At just two kilos over the minimum he looks thrown in here. Opened $4.40.

San Diego (Rosehill Race 3 No. 7)  landed some big bets two starts back when he arrived just in time to score in his first run for more than a year. He followed that up with a fighting third in the G2 Ajax Stakes behind Burbero who franked the form last weekend with a massive effort in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. Opened $5.50.

Set Square (Rosehill Race 6 No. 2)  could be the one to cause an upset if First Seal is off her game. She won the G1 VRC Oaks (below) last prep so the step up to 2000m sees her finally in a distance range that suits. She's one of only two horses in the field to have won at the journey and she chased home Noble Protector last start. That mare split Contributer and Signoff during the Spring and will start odds-on at Moonee Valley tonight. Opened $8.50.

Ruling Dynasty (Rosehill Race 8 No. 9) has had two starts at 2000m or further and he's won them by a combined margin of almost 10 lengths. It comes as no surprise given his dam is a daughter of a G1 Kentucky Derby/G1 Belmont Stakes winner and his sire Medaglia D'Oro was placed in a G1 Dubai World Cup. That stallion also produced last weekend's G1 Golden Slipper winner Vancouver. He's been brought along patiently by the Cummings team (he didn't have his first race until last December) and he's on a G1 ATC Derby path. He'd want to show something here to warrant pressing on towards that goal. Opened $6.00.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!