Super Saturday - 11.03.2107

What an incredible 9 days of racing we have over the next week and a bit punters.

It started today with the G3 Keith Nolan Classic at Kembla  and continues tomorrow with three G1's across two states before W.A. hosts the Listed Bunbury Cup on Sunday.

Monday is G2 Adelaide Cup Day, on Thursday Newcastle stages their own G3 Newmarket Handicap before the Friday night meeting at Moonee Valley for the G2 Alistair Clark Stakes warms us up for Golden Slipper Day next Saturday.

Phew.

Who's Hot? 

How can I possibly leave out Joao Moreira after his record eight win haul at Sha Tin last Sunday?

He has a full book of runners at Flemington tomorrow but the bookies think his best chances are Cannyescent (Race 1 No. 9),  Hursley (Race 2 No. 10), Circular (Race 6 No. 9) and Extreme Choice (Race 7 No. 6).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with the chance of late showers. ***

Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

I'll start with a look at the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) horses because six of the last nine winners have come via that feature. Sheidel was first over the line and simply ran them ragged. She's had two starts down the straight here for a win in the G3 Begonia Belle Stakes with 57.5kg and a fifth to Malaguerra in the G1 Darley Classic at w-f-a. The handicap conditions suit and she's drawn to get a cushy run again. 

Extreme Choice was the best of the backmarkers in that race and gets a 2kg swing on Sheidel here. The outside barrier normally wouldn't be a concern given the small field and the fact that it is a straight race but it has been hard to make ground out wide at Flemington lately. His only start here he was disappointing but he did destroy Heatherly in the G1 Moir Stakes and that mare won well last weekend.

Next I'll look at the G1 Lightning Stakes (below) because the other three winners in the last nine years came out of that race and sixth placed Heatherly franked the form last week. 

That was w-f-a. This is a handicap so while Terravista "drops" 1.5kg he stills meets them worse off at comparative weights. Still it's hard to knock a last start winner and his Flemington record (6:2-2-2) makes good reading because five of those runs (including the two wins) were at G1 level and three of his four defeats were by a quarter of a length or less. 

Spieth meets him 1.5kg better off for that narrow defeat and you could argue that given a bit more luck in his two runs at Flemington to date he'd be a two-time G1 winner here. I don't know that barrier one is an ideal draw for him given his racing pattern but he's due for a change of luck. He's going to start favourite here and deservedly so with the services of Hugh Bowman he will be there when the whips are cracking.

Star Turn also gets a 1.5kg turnaround on Terravista. His two Flemington runs to date have resulted in G1 placings and second-up last prep he was a close second to Astern in the G2 Run To The Rose. He followed that up with a demolition job on the older sprinters in the G2 Schilacci Stakes.

Illustrious Lad meets Terravista 4kg to the good and was less than a length off him there after playing up early in the race. He's had three starts at the Flemington 1200m for two wins and a second and he'll be up on the speed giving you a sight. Counterattack was only two and a half lengths off them and gets a 4.5kg advantage. That was the first time he's missed a place here in three runs. Maybe a roughie for First Fours?

Tivaci beat G1 Oakleigh Plate fourth placegetter Hellbent first-up down the Flemington straight and he gave him 3kg that day. His only go at this track and trip was a second in the G2 Bobbie Lewis to G1 Oakleigh Plate second placegetter Faatinah. He was G1 competitive in the Spring. Super Cash beat Chautauqua first-up in the G2 Rubiton Stakes. She wasn't far off Sheidel in the G3 Begonia Belle (below) at this course and distance last October and she was on the slower side of the track. She hasn't been successful beyond 1100m since winning a maiden on debut at Sale 20 months ago.

Three of the runners are first-up an no horse has won this race fresh since Polycrates in 1917. It was never the intention with The Quarterback but he had to be withdrawn from the G1 Lightning Stakes after playing up in the barriers. He won this race last year but has to carry 3kg more but he is a five time winner here. Craig Newitt has won this race three times and will be looking to make up for getting dumped from Extreme Choice. Voodoo Lad failed at the end of last prep when asked to go to the mile for the first time in the G1 Cantala Stakes but previously he'd never missed a top three finish in 17 starts up to 1400m. He has three wins and four placings at 1200m from seven attempts but he's never won at Flemington. Redkirk Warrior ran a huge race first-up last prep when having his first Australian start. He was five deep on the turn and was only just grabbed on the finish line. This is a lot harder than that however.

 Good luck to the connections of Inspector.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Spieth

DANGER  

9. Star Turn

FOR EXOTICS

6. Extreme Choice
7. Illustrious Lad
1. Terravista

Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Real Love is an early scratching ***

I have to stick with Humidor because I've been on his back his last three starts since he transferred to the Weir stable and all his runs have been full of merit. He's run three times at 2000m for two wins and a narrow second in the G1 Livamol Classic. I thought the blinkers might go on this start given his waywardness at his last two appearances but hopefully the stable has sorted that out. The bigger track should suit and Damian Lane and Darren Weir currently lead the Flemington jockey and training premierships.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

10. Humidor

DANGER  

11. Jameka

FOR EXOTICS

5. Ecuador

6. Exospheric

3. The United States

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 7. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market 

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm going with Euro Angel here. Six of the last nine winners started at double figure odds and 10 of the last 14 carried 53.5kg or less. She's drawn to get a lovely run from the good barrier and can handle wet tracks. Second-up last prep she won the G3 Ladies' Day Vase over a mile at Caulfield. She beat Rocket Commander on that occasion and that mare came out and won the G3 Wenona Girl Stakes last weekend. She did enough fresh to indicate she's come back in good order and the stable is riding high after success in last weekend's G1 Randwick Guineas with Inference.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

11. Euro Angel

DANGER  

14. Omei Sword

FOR EXOTICS

16. Denmagic

13. Zanbagh

5. Heavens Above

2. Dixie Blossoms 

Good punting!

G1 Australian Guineas Day - 04.03.2017

It's a  bit of a shame about the foul weather in Sydney and the fact that the good 3-y-o's will be split between N.S.W. and Victoria this weekend with the G1 Randwick Guineas and the G1 Australian Guineas on the same day.

Still it promises to be a bumper weekend with 21 Black Type races in all spread across five states not to mention the G1 N.Z. Derby at Ellerslie and the Black Opal Stakes meeting at Canberra on Sunday.

Who's Hot? 

Trainer Joe Pride has only taken 13 horse to the races in the last 16 days but has had six winners including a G1 Lightning Stakes with Terravista.

He has four runners tomorrow. At Gosford he saddles up Sikhing Glory (Race 4 No. 8) and at Randwick he has Queen Of Kariba (Race 4 No. 9), Ball Of Muscle (Race 6 No. 1) and Kentucky Miss (Race 6 No. 10) engaged.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

I like Prized Icon here at double figure odds. He's two from three at the mile with his only miss being against older horses at G2 w-f-a level as an early season 3-y-o. He's had one run at Flemington for a dominant win (below) in a G1 Victoria Derby. I can see him getting a lovely run from barrier three.

Hey Doc is the obvious danger and worthy favourite. His mile and Flemington form is rock solid and he comes back to set weights here after conceding weight to the majority of his rivals at his last few starts. He's another who I think maps well from the good gate. He wasn't far away in a G1 Caulfield Guineas last Spring. 

Divine Prophet has to be in the mix if Hey Doc is because he won that G1 Caulfield Guineas. His first-up run behind Black Heart Bart was better than it looked because Caulfield has been leader dominated of late. Attention is in the mix too because he was less than a length of Black Heart Bart last weekend (below) in the G1 Futurity Stakes. Brett Prebble flies in from Hong Kong for the ride just like he did when he won on Wandjina two years ago. My best roughie is Anaheim. He won an 1800m Listed race here during the Cup Carnival before a spell and his first run back against older horses was super. He got well back in a sprint home (first 800m 51.71/ last 600m 33.02) but rattled into third over the unsuitable 1400m. The best of the fillies in my mind is Harlow Gold but she'll need every inch of this Flemington straight because I think she's looking for a longer trip. She's never missed a place at this course in three starts.

It means I've had to leave out some handy types like Seaburge (plain first-up, looking for 2000m?), Morton's Fork, Oak Door, Inside Agent, Land Of Plenty (horrible barriers), Legless Veuve (problems last start), Fuhryk (1600m?) and Theanswermyfriend (big class rise). You can't tip them all.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Prized Icon

DANGER  

4. Hey Doc

FOR EXOTICS

2. Divine Prophet
6. Attention
9. Anaheim
14. Harlow Gold

OTHER G1's

*** Be aware that the Sydney track has copped more than 120mm of rain in the last seven days and more rain is forecast tomorrow ***

Ugo Foscolo (Randwick Race 5 No. 7) is the interesting runner in the G1 Canterbury Stakes. He's a winner of five from six in his native N.Z. and won a Warwick Farm barrier trial by seven lengths on a slow track 12 days ago in preparation for this. 3-y-o's have won two of the last four renewals of this race and Gai Waterhouse has trained four of the last six winners and seven overall.

In the G1 Randwick Guineas I'm also going for a bit of value in Malaise (Randwick Race 7 No. 9). He beat all bar Hey Doc last start in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes. His one win to date was on a Heavy 10 and that came at just his second career start so he appears to handle affected ground. He'll be up on the speed making his own luck in a race where a lot of them won't be. Each-way all day.

OTHER BETS

Rising Red (Ellerslie Race 9 No. 8) is going to go around at big odds in the G1 N.Z. Derby but I think he's worth a tickle each-way despite the wide barrier. He's finished either first or second in his last six runs since getting to 1600m+ and the stable has seen fit to cross the ditch here following a win in a moderate BM70 at Sandown. The start prior he was just edged out by Farson who was a strong winner when well backed at Caulfield last Saturday. 

Dal Cielo (Randwick Race 6 No. 4) is airborne at the moment and if this track is going to be a real slog (as I suspect it will be) then his race fitness will carry him a long way with many of his opponents either first or second-up. He'd probably be unbeaten at 1000m and unbeaten this prep if he hadn't blown the start first-up. He brained them on a Soft 6 two runs back. Glyn Schofield is two for two on him.

Good punting!

G1 Oakleigh Plate - 25.02.2017

The G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. The G1 Oakleigh Plate. Black Heart Bart goes around in the G1 Futurity Stakes. Not to mention Winx in Sydney and the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes.

As Big Kev used to say - "I'm excited!"

Who's Hot? 

Craig Williams is the leading rider at Caulfield over the last 12 months and he's ridden a treble at the last two Saturday meetings here. At the previous metro meeting on Australia Day he could manage only a paltry double.

He has a stack of rides at The Heath tomorrow but the best look to be Fuhryk (Race 4 No. 2), Catchy (Race 7 No. 11), I Am A Star (Race 8 No. 15) and Silent Sedition (Race 9 No. 2).

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a slight chance of drizzle in the morning. ***

Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Extreme Choice is unbeaten in two runs fresh and unbeaten in two runs at Caulfield including the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes on this day last year. He does already boast a win over older rivals after he bolted in (below) last September in the G1 Moir Stakes giving Heatherly and Wild Rain wind burn in the process. He's going to have to concede weight to some seasoned older horses here and no 3-y-o has won this race since 2010.

Hellbent has three wins and a second from six tries at the 1100m but he's been a costly conveyance of late. His last win was at this track and trip but that was much easier company than he'll meet here. He's drawn out and will get back so he's going to need luck. The one thing he will get here that he's missed at his last two runs is a solid tempo up front which is what he needs.

Fell Swoop has had his last two fresh runs here at the Caulfield 1100m and finished an unlucky second in this race last year and third to Star Turn and Malaguerra in the G2 Schillaci Stakes last Spring. At the end of that prep he was on the heels (below) of Malaguerra and Spieth in the G1 Darley Classic. The form from those last two races is clearly holding up.

I Am A Star has just 50kg here and I loved the last start effort in the G2 Rubiton Stakes when she split Super Cash and Chautauqua. She'll have to overcome barrier 17 but six of the last 10 winners drew double digit barriers. She has two wins and a second from four tries at the trip and her last three runs against older horses in good company have been solid. The last 3-y-o filly to win this race was Miss Kournikova in 2001.

They are the only runners likely to start at single figure odds but six of the last 10 winners returned $16 or better including four of the last six so it's time to look at the longer priced hopes. 

Sheidel can race on speed and jockey Joao Moreira should get a lovely passage from the good draw. She has four wins and a second in five runs at this distance as has two wins and a second from three appearances at this track. Flamberge won this race last year (below) beating Fell Swoop and Heatherly. He has seven runs at this track and trip for three wins and two placings. He wasn't far away in the G1 Lightning Stakes last week. El Divino maps nicely with just 50kg from barrier two. He'll get more pace here than he did last start and hopefully he can settle a bit better in the run. He's not the worst here on his prior run behind Tivaci. Kaepernick has ability but the barrier draw has done him no favours. He trialed well and his last two first-up runs were at 1100m for a win in the Listed Ortensia Stakes last May and a narrow third to Takedown in the G2 The Shorts in the Spring. Wild Rain has four wins and four seconds from 10 runs at 1100m and she should get the gun run from the inside gate. She was dismal first-up but last campaign she was only a length and a half off Extreme Choice in the G1 Moir Stakes and meets him 6kg better here. 

Thermal Current has only won once in 11 starts here but it was last time out in the Listed Adams Stakes which is the same path Shamal Wind took en route to winning this race two years ago. He won't know himself with just 53kg because it's the lightest weight he's carried for a long time. Faatinah was too bad to be true first-up and he does drop 7.5kg here. He did split Our Boy Malachi and Lankan Rupee in the G2 Caulfield Sprint last Spring. Ocean Embers has three wins from four starts at Caulfield including two at this trip. One of those came third run in last campaign. Two starts later she finished fourth to Star Turn, Malaguerra and Fell Swoop in the G2 Schillaci Stakes. That is her only "blemish" here to date. The barrier is dreadful.

Guard Of Honour has early speed and just the 50kg but he'll need it from the wide draw. He's chased home some handy types at his last two starts and he's done it carrying big weights. Missrock had her last start in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks but at her first two fresh appearances she won a Listed Debutante Stakes at 1000m and a G3 Percy Sykes Stakes at 1200m. Shakespearean Lass will be on-pace early but whether she 's never won at this distance and her Caulfield record is average. Miss Promiscuity had an average Spring Carnival but if she can bounce back her Caulfield 1100m form (8:3-2-1) is super. Aegean Sea has had one run here for a narrow second in the Listed Alinghi Stakes at this distance but she's hard to recommend. Ready Sunshine last won in a $42K BM75. He's currently $201 and still under the odds. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

5. Sheidel

DANGER  

2. Fell Swoop

FOR EXOTICS

3. Extreme Choice
15. I Am A Star
1. Flamberge
8. Wild Rain

OTHER G1's

Black Heart Bart looks the obvious selection in the G1 Futurity Stakes but if there is to be an upset Turn Me Loose (Caulfield Race 5 No. 2) could be the one. His last run when second in the G1 Orr Stakes was his best effort for some time and with the two runs under his belt expect him to strip even fitter here. If he gets another soft lead like last time - and there's every reason to expect he will - he will prove hard to get past. He won this race (below) last year.

In the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes I'm picking Property (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) because  I just feel good barrier draws are crucial for immature 2-y-o's in high pressure races. I concede there are other chances like Catchy, Pariah, Jukebox, Formality and Tulip but I just think this guy will get the better run. His last two wins have been really professional and I loved the way he chimed in at the furlong last start and kept savaging the line. I know Catchy thrashed him on his debut but she had the advantage of race experience.

OTHER BETS

Siegfried (Doomben Race 5 No. 6) won at this track and trip last start and I loved the way he dived through late when he didn't have a lot of room. He looks to have come back in great order this prep with two wins and a narrow fourth at the Gold Coast on Magic Millions Day. I respect Cylinder Beach but he has to concede 5.5kg, he'll be giving away a start, he's eight weeks between runs and dropping back from the mile.

Humidor (Caulfield Race 6 No. 9) gets one more chance. He flashed home from last to just miss stablemate Burning Front here a fortnight ago in the G3 Carlyon Cup in a sit-and-sprint affair. He will have a fitness edge on most of his rivals here and this Darren Weir-Damian Lane combination is becoming quite formidable. The downside is he's been backed like he's Phar Lap.

Silent Sedition (Caulfield Race 9 No. 2) made good ground last start at Caulfield on a day when the track looked a bit leader-ish to me. She was the only horse all day to break 11 seconds for her final 200m in a race where Prussian Vixen led all the way. Her previous start here was on Caulfield Guineas Day last October when she was narrowly beaten by Sheidel in the G3 Northwood Plume Stakes when conceding her a kilo.

Good punting!

G1 Lightning Stakes Day - 18.02.2017

11 Black Type races spread across four states tomorrow not to mention the ones at Moonee Valley tonight and Launceston on Sunday.

Just three weeks now until Super Saturday at Flemington and just four weeks until Golden Slipper Day.

Who's Hot? 

Hugh Bowman has had a stellar week with a double at Randwick on Monday followed by a treble at the same venue two days later. He'll be a busy boy this weekend with seven rides at Canterbury tonight before jetting off to Melbourne tomorrow.

He's picked up some nice rides at Flemington too namely Taking Aim (Race 4 No. 1), Nurse Kitchen (Race 5 No. 2), Spieth (Race 8 No. 7) and Our Century (Race 9 No. 3).

Then on Sunday he's off to Shatin to ride the talented Dinozzo for John Size in the G1 Hong Kong Classic Cup.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers. ***

Lightning Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

12 of last 13 winners returned $5.50 or less for the win. Whilst 3-y-o's were dominant between 1986 and 2005 winning 12 of the 20 renewals of this race none have saluted since. So Flying Artie and Star Turn are looking to be the first juveniles in 12 years to win. It may be just me but Flemington straight races recently seem to have favoured runners who are drawn on the grandstand side and can sit on-pace.

Flying Artie has had two runs at Flemington for a win (below) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last Spring and a narrow second on debut in the G3 Maribyrnong Plate at this distance. His other four runs have yielded two G3 wins and placings in a G1 Blue Diamond and a G1 Golden Slipper. The 3-y-o's get 5kg from most of their rivals at the w-f-a scale here which could be a factor.

Star Turn has had just the one run here (above) when third to Flying Artie in the aforementioned G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. He's also finished behind him the other three times they've met. He does however have a victory over older horses on his resume which his fellow 3-y-o does not. That came in the G2 Schillaci Stakes last October when he beat up on the likes of Malaguerra and Fell Swoop.

Spieth won at his first go down the Flemington straight last June and should arguably be unbeaten here after an unlucky second (below) to Malaguerra in the G1 Darley Classic at the end of the Spring Carnival. That was his only defeat in his last five runs. His first-up win last prep was impressive but he's never been tried at 1000m. Hugh Bowman flies down from Sydney to take the ride.

Supido is unbeaten in four starts at Flemington. He won six on end before stepping up to the G1 Goodwood Handicap and finishing a three quarter length third to Black Heart Bart. He's won at his last four first-up appearances. Heatherly has had two runs up the Flemington straight for a win and a second. She's won three times at 1000m and placed at her other five attempts. This time last year she finished on the heels of Flamberge and Fell Swoop when third in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. Terravista won his first start at Flemington beating Chautauqua and Lankan Rupee in the 2014 G1 Darley Classic. He's had four starts here since for placings in another G1 Darley Classic, a G1 Newmarket Handicap, a G3 Mumm Stakes and this race last year.

It's $15+ the rest but there are some good types at long odds.

Illustrious Lad is a three-time winner at 1000m and has won twice at this track including a last start win in the G2 Linlithgow Stakes on Derby Day beating Counterattack. He hasn't missed a top-two placing at his last seven starts. The Quarterback is a five-time winner at Flemington including three from six at this trip and a win (below) in last year's G1 Newmarket Handicap. His other victory here came first-up last campaign in the G2 Gilgai Stakes. 

Counterattack has raced twice down the Flemington straight for placings in a G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and a G2 Linlithgow Stakes behind Illustrious Lad. He's had two runs at this distance for two seconds but that was as a 2-y-o. Flamberge wasn't far off Tivaci first-up with 62.5kg in the Listed Kensington Stakes at this track and trip. Last March he won the G1 William Reid Stakes second-up. His overall record here isn't flash (13:3-1-1) but at least he has a run under his belt. So too does Faatinah but he was average last start when a short priced favourite in the Listed Adams Stakes although jockey Regan Bayliss reported it may have been the firm track. He's only won once here in five attempts.  Missrock has won two from three first-up including the G3 Percy Sykes Stakes at Randwick during The Championships. She has started three times at 1000m for a win on debut in the Listed Debutant Stakes and a third at this track and distance in the G3 Ottawa Stakes during Cup Week. Orujo is poorly placed at the w-f-a scale. He wouldn't be out of place in Race 1 but this looks way out of his league. No.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

7. Spieth

DANGER  

11. Flying Artie

FOR EXOTICS

12. Star Turn
10. Heatherly
3. The Quarterback
1. Terravista

OTHER BETS

Comin' Through (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4) hit the line strongly at his first run back since winning the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. He ran faster closing sectionals than the winner Man From Uncle and meets him 2.5kg better off here. Stepping up to 1400m will suit him better than the 1200m last start and he should be nearing peak fitness now with the G1 Randwick Guineas just a fortnight away.

Good punting!

G1 Orr Stakes Day - 11.02.2017

The first G1 of the New Year and a star studded field will head to Caulfield.

And on top of all that Winx resumes in Sydney.

Who's Hot? 

Brenton Avdulla is a jockey I find hard to catch but he's forced his way into this segment with a double at Randwick last Saturday then flying to Tasmania to claim the Listed Thomas Lyons Stakes on Sunday before returning to N.S.W. to bag four winners from five rides at Newcastle on Tuesday.

He has almost a full book at Randwick tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Liapari (Race 1 No. 8), Impending (Race 5 No. 5), and Invincible Gem (Race 7 No. 13).

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day with a chance of a late shower. ***

C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Black Heart Bart has had four starts here at Caulfield for three wins and a second to Winx. His 1400m record (11:6-4-0) is impressive including two from two at this course. Can he get across into a reasonable spot from the wide barrier? Brad Rawiller must think so because he could have ridden Lucky Hussler. Clearly the one to beat.

Malaguerra was devastating first-up and his second-up form (5:3-0-0) is impressive too.  His last two runs at 1400m were poor although they were in a G1 Stradbroke Handicap and a G1 All Aged Stakes and he had excuses both times. He won his previous two starts at the trip though but barrier 12 doesn't help. He ran a record last start but can he back up? Wary.

Lucky Hussler didn't see a lot of daylight when a fast finishing second in this race last year. His other three runs at this track and distance were a three length win over Under The Louvre in a G3 Moonga Stakes, a second to G1 winner Trust In A Gust and an unlucky sixth (below) in a G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes. He loves it here. Brad Rawiller jumps off him to ride the favourite though.

Divine Prophet won the G1 Caulfield Guineas at this track last Spring and takes on the older horses for the first time here. His first run back last campaign he unleashed a scintillating burst to come from last to win the G3 Up & Coming Stakes. He's had two trials so I expect him to be ready for action. Dwayne Dunn stays solid despite having first refusal on He's Our Rokkii.

12 of the last 15 winners have returned single figure odds and six of the last seven favourites have won but let's take a look at some of the longer priced chances.

Jameka is nominated for both the G1 Australian Cup and the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes so I doubt she'll be fully wound up for this assignment. She can run a race fresh at this distance as she showed when fourth (below) in the G2 Lawrence Stakes at this track and trip last August. Palentino is a horse I will be looking for at his next run. His second-up record is sound and could read even better had he not lost the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes to Tivaci in the stewards room. Ignore his poor form at this track because two of his three misses were first-up at 1200m and that's not his go. His other run in the G1 Memsie six months ago is forgivable because they went like scalded cats in front. Miss Rose De Lago has four wins and a placing from six starts at Caulfield. She goes well fresh and is drawn to get a good run. She won the G2 Lawrence Stakes (below) at this course and distance fresh last Spring.

Ecuador is in fine form having won four of his last five and he does go well at 1400m with four wins and two seconds from seven attempts. This however is a lot harder than anything he has tackled recently. Arod was brave in his only run in Australia last year when he faced the breeze three wide with 59kg and beat all bar the winner in the G3 Chatham Stakes. He'll get a better run here from the inside draw. He's Our Rokkii won first-up last Spring at this track and distance and then did so again at his next run. He's never missed a top two finish in four runs here including a win in the G1 Toorak Handicap. Regan Bayliss takes over from Dwayne Dunn.

Turn Me Loose won the G1 Futurity Stakes (below) at this track and trip this time last year. He was second-up that day too. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he lobbed into the first four and put some value in exotics. Awesome Rock hasn't won below a mile in nearly three years. I expect he'll need the run but he is a horse that when he does win it's usually unexpected. He was $31 when he saluted in the G2 Feehan Stakes last September and $18 when he won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at his last run.

What a cracking race to kick off G1 action in 2017!

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Black Heart Bart

DANGER  

3. Lucky Hussler

FOR EXOTICS

4. Malaguerra
11. Miss Rose De Lago
12. Divine Prophet
9. He's Our Rokkii

OTHER BETS

Wild Rain (Caulfield Race 6 No. 4) meets some quality opposition here but she did score impressively at this track and trip at the start of last campaign. Her previous fresh run was a second to The Quarterback down the straight at Flemington where he is practically untouchable. With Miss Promiscuity scratched it takes a lot of speed out of the race and I think this mare may be able to dictate the terms up front.

Humidor (Caulfield Race 8 No. 6) has had two second-up runs - both at 1600m - and has won both easily. His effort in the G1 Cantala Stakes at Flemington during the Spring Carnival (below) was probably the best four length ninth of 16 you will ever see. I'm hoping he gets clearer running room tomorrow. He meets Grande Rosso three kilos better off here for his last start defeat.

Good punting!