G1 Australian Guineas Day - 04.03.2017

It's a  bit of a shame about the foul weather in Sydney and the fact that the good 3-y-o's will be split between N.S.W. and Victoria this weekend with the G1 Randwick Guineas and the G1 Australian Guineas on the same day.

Still it promises to be a bumper weekend with 21 Black Type races in all spread across five states not to mention the G1 N.Z. Derby at Ellerslie and the Black Opal Stakes meeting at Canberra on Sunday.

Who's Hot? 

Trainer Joe Pride has only taken 13 horse to the races in the last 16 days but has had six winners including a G1 Lightning Stakes with Terravista.

He has four runners tomorrow. At Gosford he saddles up Sikhing Glory (Race 4 No. 8) and at Randwick he has Queen Of Kariba (Race 4 No. 9), Ball Of Muscle (Race 6 No. 1) and Kentucky Miss (Race 6 No. 10) engaged.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

I like Prized Icon here at double figure odds. He's two from three at the mile with his only miss being against older horses at G2 w-f-a level as an early season 3-y-o. He's had one run at Flemington for a dominant win (below) in a G1 Victoria Derby. I can see him getting a lovely run from barrier three.

Hey Doc is the obvious danger and worthy favourite. His mile and Flemington form is rock solid and he comes back to set weights here after conceding weight to the majority of his rivals at his last few starts. He's another who I think maps well from the good gate. He wasn't far away in a G1 Caulfield Guineas last Spring. 

Divine Prophet has to be in the mix if Hey Doc is because he won that G1 Caulfield Guineas. His first-up run behind Black Heart Bart was better than it looked because Caulfield has been leader dominated of late. Attention is in the mix too because he was less than a length of Black Heart Bart last weekend (below) in the G1 Futurity Stakes. Brett Prebble flies in from Hong Kong for the ride just like he did when he won on Wandjina two years ago. My best roughie is Anaheim. He won an 1800m Listed race here during the Cup Carnival before a spell and his first run back against older horses was super. He got well back in a sprint home (first 800m 51.71/ last 600m 33.02) but rattled into third over the unsuitable 1400m. The best of the fillies in my mind is Harlow Gold but she'll need every inch of this Flemington straight because I think she's looking for a longer trip. She's never missed a place at this course in three starts.

It means I've had to leave out some handy types like Seaburge (plain first-up, looking for 2000m?), Morton's Fork, Oak Door, Inside Agent, Land Of Plenty (horrible barriers), Legless Veuve (problems last start), Fuhryk (1600m?) and Theanswermyfriend (big class rise). You can't tip them all.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Prized Icon

DANGER  

4. Hey Doc

FOR EXOTICS

2. Divine Prophet
6. Attention
9. Anaheim
14. Harlow Gold

OTHER G1's

*** Be aware that the Sydney track has copped more than 120mm of rain in the last seven days and more rain is forecast tomorrow ***

Ugo Foscolo (Randwick Race 5 No. 7) is the interesting runner in the G1 Canterbury Stakes. He's a winner of five from six in his native N.Z. and won a Warwick Farm barrier trial by seven lengths on a slow track 12 days ago in preparation for this. 3-y-o's have won two of the last four renewals of this race and Gai Waterhouse has trained four of the last six winners and seven overall.

In the G1 Randwick Guineas I'm also going for a bit of value in Malaise (Randwick Race 7 No. 9). He beat all bar Hey Doc last start in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes. His one win to date was on a Heavy 10 and that came at just his second career start so he appears to handle affected ground. He'll be up on the speed making his own luck in a race where a lot of them won't be. Each-way all day.

OTHER BETS

Rising Red (Ellerslie Race 9 No. 8) is going to go around at big odds in the G1 N.Z. Derby but I think he's worth a tickle each-way despite the wide barrier. He's finished either first or second in his last six runs since getting to 1600m+ and the stable has seen fit to cross the ditch here following a win in a moderate BM70 at Sandown. The start prior he was just edged out by Farson who was a strong winner when well backed at Caulfield last Saturday. 

Dal Cielo (Randwick Race 6 No. 4) is airborne at the moment and if this track is going to be a real slog (as I suspect it will be) then his race fitness will carry him a long way with many of his opponents either first or second-up. He'd probably be unbeaten at 1000m and unbeaten this prep if he hadn't blown the start first-up. He brained them on a Soft 6 two runs back. Glyn Schofield is two for two on him.

Good punting!