Another bog track in Sydney this weekend with Rosehill drowning under more than 190mm of rain in the last 10 days.
Melbourne has fared a lot better and conditions look fantastic for the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley tonight.
Melbourne has fared a lot better and conditions look fantastic for the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley tonight.
Who's Hot?
Surely it has to be in-form hoop Regan Bayliss?
He won his first G1 less than a fortnight ago, two days later he won the G2 Adelaide Cup, he was back to Bendigo the next day to ride a double before a rare foray north of the border saw him bag his first Black Type winner in Sydney last weekend. He's since had winners at Yarra Glen and Kyneton too.
He won his first G1 less than a fortnight ago, two days later he won the G2 Adelaide Cup, he was back to Bendigo the next day to ride a double before a rare foray north of the border saw him bag his first Black Type winner in Sydney last weekend. He's since had winners at Yarra Glen and Kyneton too.
He has three rides tonight at Moonee Valley before heading back to Rosehill to partner She's On Que (Race 1 No. 12), Floodlight (Race 3 No. 6), Noble Truth (Race 5 No. 13), Harlow Gold (Race 7 No. 3), Happy Hannah (Race 8 No. 8) and Spy Decoder (Race 9 No. 5).
ROSEHILL
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Heavy 10. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a high chance of showers in the afternoon. ***
The B.M.W. (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)
Current Sportsbet market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
This could turn into another of those farcical G1 w-f-a staying contests with a small field that just becomes a sprint home. Lasqueti Spirit leads with Jameka and Tavago in attendance but the rest aren't types that can be bustled out of the gates.
Stats wise the last five winners have paid $4.50 or less but four of the last 10 paid $11 or better. Only one 3-y-o and two mares have won in the last 10 years.
Our Ivanhowe returns to the scene of the crime after his barnstorming win here seven days ago in the G1 Ranvet Stakes. He looked like he absolutely thrived in the heavy conditions and he'll get the same again tomorrow the only bother is that he's never had such a quick back-up previously. Jockey Ben Melham is fresh off a G1 Golden Slipper victory.
Jameka should stalk the leader from barrier two and get a lovely run. The only time she's hit a heavy track was when she smashed them in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks 16 months ago. Hugh Bowman is looking to win this race for the third time in six years but only four mares have been successful in the last 20 years. She was brave (below) when just pipped last start in the G1 Australian Cup.
Humidor grabbed an overdue win last start (above) when claiming the aforementioned G1 Australian Cup. He won a G3 Manawatu Classic on a heavy track and that was in his native N.Z. so we know it was a genuine heavy track. Still I'm risking him here because he was well beaten at his only 2400m run and the race pattern doesn't suit. It's also his first look at Sydney.
Exospheric closed well from last in the G1 Australian Cup (above) on that leader-biased Flemington circuit a fortnight ago and probably would have finished closer with an uninterrupted passage. His wet track from isn't flash. Last time he went to this trip he ran third to Jameka in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup.
Tavago won the G1 A.T.C. Derby at this trip around this time last year beating Jameka by three and a half lengths. He thrashed Antonio Giuseppe last start when giving him three kilos and that horse has since run well in last weekend's G1 Ranvet Stakes. He hit a heavy track two starts back (below) when he was great behind Winx in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes after getting stopped in his tracks at the 600m.
Stats wise the last five winners have paid $4.50 or less but four of the last 10 paid $11 or better. Only one 3-y-o and two mares have won in the last 10 years.
Our Ivanhowe returns to the scene of the crime after his barnstorming win here seven days ago in the G1 Ranvet Stakes. He looked like he absolutely thrived in the heavy conditions and he'll get the same again tomorrow the only bother is that he's never had such a quick back-up previously. Jockey Ben Melham is fresh off a G1 Golden Slipper victory.
Jameka should stalk the leader from barrier two and get a lovely run. The only time she's hit a heavy track was when she smashed them in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks 16 months ago. Hugh Bowman is looking to win this race for the third time in six years but only four mares have been successful in the last 20 years. She was brave (below) when just pipped last start in the G1 Australian Cup.
Humidor grabbed an overdue win last start (above) when claiming the aforementioned G1 Australian Cup. He won a G3 Manawatu Classic on a heavy track and that was in his native N.Z. so we know it was a genuine heavy track. Still I'm risking him here because he was well beaten at his only 2400m run and the race pattern doesn't suit. It's also his first look at Sydney.
Exospheric closed well from last in the G1 Australian Cup (above) on that leader-biased Flemington circuit a fortnight ago and probably would have finished closer with an uninterrupted passage. His wet track from isn't flash. Last time he went to this trip he ran third to Jameka in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup.
Tavago won the G1 A.T.C. Derby at this trip around this time last year beating Jameka by three and a half lengths. He thrashed Antonio Giuseppe last start when giving him three kilos and that horse has since run well in last weekend's G1 Ranvet Stakes. He hit a heavy track two starts back (below) when he was great behind Winx in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes after getting stopped in his tracks at the 600m.
Who Shot Thebarman was third (above) in the same race and I like the way he ran through the line. It gave every impression that this step up in distance will suit and all his previous form seems to indicate the same. Barrier eight is no real concern given the small size of the field. He's finished top four in this race the last two years.
Lasqueti Spirit will spear straight to the lead from the extreme outside gate and she was really good behind Winx in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (above) two starts back on a Heavy 9. She finished second that day and comfortably held the rest and with the exception of Jameka she's going to get a 6.5kg-7kg advantage from her rivals here.
Libran has been getting a little bit closer with every run this campaign and he's finally out to a distance where he can be competitive. He's three from four at 2400m and this time last year he won the G3 Manion Cup at this track and trip. He does have some wet track form but I think he'd be better on a firmer track than this.
Grand Marshal won the G2 Moonee Valley Vase last October on a soft track. He beat his stablemate Who Shot Thebarman that day and conceded him a kilo. All his best runs have been at 2400m+ so he should be strong at the end and he can handle the wet. A couple of bucks at $21 the place wouldn't be the worst bet I've ever seen.
Locky's SelectionsLasqueti Spirit will spear straight to the lead from the extreme outside gate and she was really good behind Winx in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (above) two starts back on a Heavy 9. She finished second that day and comfortably held the rest and with the exception of Jameka she's going to get a 6.5kg-7kg advantage from her rivals here.
Libran has been getting a little bit closer with every run this campaign and he's finally out to a distance where he can be competitive. He's three from four at 2400m and this time last year he won the G3 Manion Cup at this track and trip. He does have some wet track form but I think he'd be better on a firmer track than this.
Grand Marshal won the G2 Moonee Valley Vase last October on a soft track. He beat his stablemate Who Shot Thebarman that day and conceded him a kilo. All his best runs have been at 2400m+ so he should be strong at the end and he can handle the wet. A couple of bucks at $21 the place wouldn't be the worst bet I've ever seen.
BEST
7. Tavago
DANGER
8. Jameka
9. Lasqueti Spirit
1. Our Ivanhowe
OTHER BETS
Jon Snow (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) is dropping back from 2400m to 2000m here so he'll have plenty of residual fitness on this testing track. He's coming via the G1 N.Z. Derby (below) won by Gingernuts en route to his victory last weekend in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. I like backing Kiwi stayers on wet tracks and he's never missed a drum in three runs on affected surfaces back home.
La Bella Diosa (Rosehill Race 7 No. 1) churned through the mud to win the G2 Surround Stakes two runs back and I'm prepared to overlook her last start failure because she pulled up with problems. Three wins on slow and one on heavy and five wins from eight overall is impressive reading. She's already a G1 winner.
Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 8 No. 3) is another who won't mind if the rain keeps coming and third run back she should be ready to peak here. The race wasn't run to suit her first-up but she still managed to run second on that Heavy 10. Last start she was one of the better runs in the G1 Coolmore Classic. Third run last prep she was just over a length off I Am A Star in the G1 Myer Classic when conceding her 8kg.
Good punting!
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