Thank God we're back to Sydney this weekend and away from the diabolical tracks in Melbourne where everyone except the people responsible for preparing them can see there's something wrong.
(Insert $1500 fine here)
We could have done with a drier week at Rosehill however with the track copping 65mm in the last seven days and more tipped tomorrow.
(Insert $1500 fine here)
We could have done with a drier week at Rosehill however with the track copping 65mm in the last seven days and more tipped tomorrow.
Who's Hot?
Jockey Craig Williams was in good touch before his enforced layoff due to the stewards with six winners from his previous 27 rides including consecutive Saturday metro doubles at Caulfield and Flemington.
He rides at Moonee Valley tonight then travels north to N.S.W. tomorrow and he has some choice mounts at Rosehill such as Big Duke (Race 1 No. 3), Raiment (Race 2 No. 6), Comin' Through (Race 6 No. 5) and Catchy (Race 7 No. 9).
ROSEHILL
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Heavy 9. The forecast was for a cloudy day with the chance of showers. ***
Golden Slipper (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)
Current Sportsbet market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
It had been a pretty even split in the last decade with six boys and four girls successful. Seven of those 10 winners drew barrier 8 or inside but two of the other three winners (Phelan Ready and Vancouver) came from 16 of 16. In the same period six favourites got beaten yet only two winners returned more than $8 so the winner is usually in commission. Nine of the ten were coming off a top two finish at their last start and only Sebring (2008) and Crystal Lily (2010) did not come via either the G2 Todman Stakes or the G2 Reisling Stakes a fortnight earlier.
Houtzen has drawn the car park here but she did overcome the widest gate (below) to win the Magic Millions 2-Y-O Classic two starts back. Her subsequent win at Eagle Farm was full of merit given she lumped 63kg to a four length victory over a horse she was giving 9kg too. Hard not to like a filly who is unbeaten after four starts by a combined margin of 13 lengths. Two from two on soft tracks.
She Will Reign fared only marginally better in the barrier draw but she does have early tactical speed so she may be able to get across into a good spot without much trouble. Her last start defeat was her first in four career runs but she wasn't in the best part of the track in that G2 Reisling Stakes. She won her other two starts on affected ground and was a strong favourite for this race before her colours were lowered for the first time.
Catchy is unbeaten and her effort to win the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (below) was super given not many horses that day were making ground from back in the field. Having said that only Sepoy and Courtza have completed the double in the last 30 years. Jockey Ben Melham has options from the middle draw so it's no real surprise she's been the best backed runner since the barrier draw. No wet track form.
Pariah has the best draw of those at the top of the market and he should get a lovely run here from barrier four. He was only just pipped last time out by Catchy (above) in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes after working early. Team Snowden and Blake Shinn combined to win this race last year with Capitalist. He's never seen worse than a Good 4.
Tulip claimed the G3 Magic Night Stakes at Rosehill last weekend so she's won at Rosehill, won at 1200m and won on a Soft 7. The problem is no filly has managed to back-up seven days later and win the double since Bint Marscay in 1993. Still it was a gutsy, dogged win and she was one of the better runs in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (above) outside of the winner.
Houtzen has drawn the car park here but she did overcome the widest gate (below) to win the Magic Millions 2-Y-O Classic two starts back. Her subsequent win at Eagle Farm was full of merit given she lumped 63kg to a four length victory over a horse she was giving 9kg too. Hard not to like a filly who is unbeaten after four starts by a combined margin of 13 lengths. Two from two on soft tracks.
She Will Reign fared only marginally better in the barrier draw but she does have early tactical speed so she may be able to get across into a good spot without much trouble. Her last start defeat was her first in four career runs but she wasn't in the best part of the track in that G2 Reisling Stakes. She won her other two starts on affected ground and was a strong favourite for this race before her colours were lowered for the first time.
Catchy is unbeaten and her effort to win the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (below) was super given not many horses that day were making ground from back in the field. Having said that only Sepoy and Courtza have completed the double in the last 30 years. Jockey Ben Melham has options from the middle draw so it's no real surprise she's been the best backed runner since the barrier draw. No wet track form.
Pariah has the best draw of those at the top of the market and he should get a lovely run here from barrier four. He was only just pipped last time out by Catchy (above) in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes after working early. Team Snowden and Blake Shinn combined to win this race last year with Capitalist. He's never seen worse than a Good 4.
Tulip claimed the G3 Magic Night Stakes at Rosehill last weekend so she's won at Rosehill, won at 1200m and won on a Soft 7. The problem is no filly has managed to back-up seven days later and win the double since Bint Marscay in 1993. Still it was a gutsy, dogged win and she was one of the better runs in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (above) outside of the winner.
Frolic is one you know will handle the track after her win a fortnight ago in the G2 Reisling Stakes on a Heavy 9. The wide barrier is a concern but she did come down the outside rail to win last start and late in the day it could well be the place to be. Jockey Tommy Berry is shooting for his third win in this race in five years.
Invader has had three runs at 1200m and his last two were on wet tracks so he's rock hard fit. He narrowly missed stablemate Gunnison last start in the G2 Todman Stakes and Team Snowden has decided to accept with this bloke but not the winner. They would have liked a better draw. Formality is an unknown on a wet track but was undefeated before her third in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. She's drawn to advantage and the stable is flying. Menari was safely held last start but jockey Tim Clark reported he may have run out of condition on a testing track that he never really handled. Unfortunately he's going to get more of the same tomorrow. The inside gate is some advantage
Trapeze Artist comfortably beat them in the G3 Black Opal last start and also won on debut. His only defeat came in his only run on a wet track. The good barrier helps. Trekking was three lengths adrift of Trapeze Artist at Canberra but he'll most likely jump from the extreme outside barring scratchings. He was the best closer in a slowly run race and his debut win was solid. Single Bullet should get a nice trail here from the good barrier and I like the way he worried Ducimus out of the G3 Pago Pago Stakes last weekend. If he can back up he should run a strong race. The last horse to complete that double was Stratum in 2005. He has had an injury setback and had to undergo a vets examination.
It's $41+ the rest and I'm not going to preview them all. Buy a Best Bets.
BEST
12. She Will Reign
DANGER
15. Houtzen
9. Catchy
11. Tulip
13. Frolic
7. Invader
Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Inference got through the bog to win the G1 Randwick Guineas (below) at his last appearance and the step up to 2000m suits because the only two times he's got beyond the mile he was solid despite the fact that tempo/interference were against him. From barrier three he should get a lovely drag into the race. Only It's A Dundeel and Metal Bender have completed the G1 Randwick Guineas/G1 Rosehill Guineas double.
Comin' Through was third (above) behind Inference in the G1 Randwick Guineas and he cut the corner and came through the worst section of the track so it was a solid effort. Four of the last five winners came via that race. He's had the ideal preparation for this and looks set to peak now. Craig Williams picks up the ride and he has won this race twice before. Breeding suggests he should be a sprinter-miler but I'm not second guessing Chris Waller.
Impavido was the unlucky runner (above) in the G1 Randwick Guineas. He finished fourth after swooping from near last and you could make an argument he should have finished closer because he was tightened at a crucial stage and lost all momentum. Once he got going again he was taking ground off them at the end. This is only his fifth start. It would be an incredible training performance given he made his debut less than eight weeks ago.
Prized Icon was no match for the sprint of Hey Doc (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas but he did keep finding the line and gave the impression he's looking for further. He's won twice on soft going including a victory in the G1 Champagne Stakes beating subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Divine Prophet. He's drawn out but he'll press forward so it isn't too much of a concern.
Anaheim was probably the run of the race (above) when fifth in the aforementioned G1 Australian Guineas. The Flemington track was favouring on-pace runners, they walked in front before Hey Doc sprinted home the final 600m in 33.82 yet he came from near last to finish fifth. He ran the best final 600m and 400m and only Snitzson had a better final furlong. He looks a real Derby type. Placed twice in the wet. Wide draw.
BEST
6. Anaheim
DANGER
4. Inference
2. Gingernuts
1. Prized Icon
Sofia Rosa (Rosehill Race 4 No. 8) has four wins on affected tracks and only five career wins total so she is clearly adept in the going. She's had two OK runs back from a spell in G1's in N.Z. but they were over unsuitable distances. Expect improvement here now that she gets out to a trip because this time last year she won a G1 A.T.C. Oaks (below) at 2400m on a rain affected track. Only one favourite has won this race in the last six years and three of the winners paid $12+.
There's no point tipping Winx so I'm looking for a roughie at odds that could pay well for a place in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and I've settled on McCreery (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6). He's a four time winner on wet tracks and has won three of his last five (twice in the wet) with his other two runs being a one length second in the G1 Cantala Stakes and a one and a half length sixth in a G1 Epsom Handicap.
Redzel (Rosehill Race 8 No. 6) was narrowly beaten at this track and trip second-up this time last year when lumping 60kg and conceding the winner 4.5kg. His last two runs on heavy tracks were a win and a narrow second to English last start in the G2 Challenge Stakes. He meets her 3kg better off here. Four of his five wins were at 1100m. He won't know himself with just 54.5kg on his back. He beat Terravista (below) at Flemington two runs back in the Listed Mumm Stakes.
Raiment (Rosehill Race 2 No. 6) had two wins and a narrow second from three starts last prep and you could make a case she should've been unbeaten because she was unlucky when edged out by the talented In Her Time. That filly went on to win the G2 Breeders Classic and the G2 Mille Fox Stakes at her next two starts thus franking the form. This girl has never missed a top two finish in four starts at the trip and she has two wins and a second from three goes in the wet. Fresh last campaign she lumped 57kg to a one and a half length win on a Heavy 9. 53kg here looks a luxury.
Comin' Through was third (above) behind Inference in the G1 Randwick Guineas and he cut the corner and came through the worst section of the track so it was a solid effort. Four of the last five winners came via that race. He's had the ideal preparation for this and looks set to peak now. Craig Williams picks up the ride and he has won this race twice before. Breeding suggests he should be a sprinter-miler but I'm not second guessing Chris Waller.
Impavido was the unlucky runner (above) in the G1 Randwick Guineas. He finished fourth after swooping from near last and you could make an argument he should have finished closer because he was tightened at a crucial stage and lost all momentum. Once he got going again he was taking ground off them at the end. This is only his fifth start. It would be an incredible training performance given he made his debut less than eight weeks ago.
Anaheim was probably the run of the race (above) when fifth in the aforementioned G1 Australian Guineas. The Flemington track was favouring on-pace runners, they walked in front before Hey Doc sprinted home the final 600m in 33.82 yet he came from near last to finish fifth. He ran the best final 600m and 400m and only Snitzson had a better final furlong. He looks a real Derby type. Placed twice in the wet. Wide draw.
Gingernuts is dropping back from the 2400m after claiming the G1 N.Z. Derby (below) last start. Two winners of this race in recent years (Volkstok'n'barrell and Jimmy Choux) have taken the same path. At his previous run he won the G2 Avondale Guineas at 2100m on a wet track. He's won three on end and four from seven overall so he's building quite the record and Kiwi stayers can never be dismissed lightly. Well drawn.
Seaburge was fair in the G1 Australian Guineas last start and going on his seconds in the G1 Caulfield Guineas and G1 Mackinnon Stakes he'd just about win this. I'm risking him though given his poor wet track record and the ugly barrier. Harper's Choice was pretty good last start in the G1 Randwick Guineas given the jockey reported he didn't let down in the going. He'll get a wet track again unfortunately but he does look like he'll appreciate the 2000m. The wide gate doesn't help. Sizzling Bullet has won three of his last four and all the victories were at 1600m+ and in the wet. He's taking an unorthodox approach here coming off a BM70. Dealer Principal (2008) is the only winner since 1997 that hadn't contested a G1 at his previous start.
$34+ the rest.
$34+ the rest.
Locky's Selections
BEST
6. Anaheim
DANGER
4. Inference
FOR EXOTICS
2. Gingernuts
1. Prized Icon
8. Sizzling Bullet
OTHER G1's
There's no point tipping Winx so I'm looking for a roughie at odds that could pay well for a place in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and I've settled on McCreery (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6). He's a four time winner on wet tracks and has won three of his last five (twice in the wet) with his other two runs being a one length second in the G1 Cantala Stakes and a one and a half length sixth in a G1 Epsom Handicap.
OTHER BETS
Raiment (Rosehill Race 2 No. 6) had two wins and a narrow second from three starts last prep and you could make a case she should've been unbeaten because she was unlucky when edged out by the talented In Her Time. That filly went on to win the G2 Breeders Classic and the G2 Mille Fox Stakes at her next two starts thus franking the form. This girl has never missed a top two finish in four starts at the trip and she has two wins and a second from three goes in the wet. Fresh last campaign she lumped 57kg to a one and a half length win on a Heavy 9. 53kg here looks a luxury.
Good punting!
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