What an incredible 9 days of racing we have over the next week and a bit punters.
It started today with the G3 Keith Nolan Classic at Kembla and continues tomorrow with three G1's across two states before W.A. hosts the Listed Bunbury Cup on Sunday.
Monday is G2 Adelaide Cup Day, on Thursday Newcastle stages their own G3 Newmarket Handicap before the Friday night meeting at Moonee Valley for the G2 Alistair Clark Stakes warms us up for Golden Slipper Day next Saturday.
Phew.
It started today with the G3 Keith Nolan Classic at Kembla and continues tomorrow with three G1's across two states before W.A. hosts the Listed Bunbury Cup on Sunday.
Monday is G2 Adelaide Cup Day, on Thursday Newcastle stages their own G3 Newmarket Handicap before the Friday night meeting at Moonee Valley for the G2 Alistair Clark Stakes warms us up for Golden Slipper Day next Saturday.
Phew.
Who's Hot?
He has a full book of runners at Flemington tomorrow but the bookies think his best chances are Cannyescent (Race 1 No. 9), Hursley (Race 2 No. 10), Circular (Race 6 No. 9) and Extreme Choice (Race 7 No. 6).
FLEMINGTON
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with the chance of late showers. ***
Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)
Current Sportsbet market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
I'll start with a look at the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) horses because six of the last nine winners have come via that feature. Sheidel was first over the line and simply ran them ragged. She's had two starts down the straight here for a win in the G3 Begonia Belle Stakes with 57.5kg and a fifth to Malaguerra in the G1 Darley Classic at w-f-a. The handicap conditions suit and she's drawn to get a cushy run again.
Extreme Choice was the best of the backmarkers in that race and gets a 2kg swing on Sheidel here. The outside barrier normally wouldn't be a concern given the small field and the fact that it is a straight race but it has been hard to make ground out wide at Flemington lately. His only start here he was disappointing but he did destroy Heatherly in the G1 Moir Stakes and that mare won well last weekend.
Extreme Choice was the best of the backmarkers in that race and gets a 2kg swing on Sheidel here. The outside barrier normally wouldn't be a concern given the small field and the fact that it is a straight race but it has been hard to make ground out wide at Flemington lately. His only start here he was disappointing but he did destroy Heatherly in the G1 Moir Stakes and that mare won well last weekend.
Next I'll look at the G1 Lightning Stakes (below) because the other three winners in the last nine years came out of that race and sixth placed Heatherly franked the form last week.
That was w-f-a. This is a handicap so while Terravista "drops" 1.5kg he stills meets them worse off at comparative weights. Still it's hard to knock a last start winner and his Flemington record (6:2-2-2) makes good reading because five of those runs (including the two wins) were at G1 level and three of his four defeats were by a quarter of a length or less.
Spieth meets him 1.5kg better off for that narrow defeat and you could argue that given a bit more luck in his two runs at Flemington to date he'd be a two-time G1 winner here. I don't know that barrier one is an ideal draw for him given his racing pattern but he's due for a change of luck. He's going to start favourite here and deservedly so with the services of Hugh Bowman he will be there when the whips are cracking.
Star Turn also gets a 1.5kg turnaround on Terravista. His two Flemington runs to date have resulted in G1 placings and second-up last prep he was a close second to Astern in the G2 Run To The Rose. He followed that up with a demolition job on the older sprinters in the G2 Schilacci Stakes.
Illustrious Lad meets Terravista 4kg to the good and was less than a length off him there after playing up early in the race. He's had three starts at the Flemington 1200m for two wins and a second and he'll be up on the speed giving you a sight. Counterattack was only two and a half lengths off them and gets a 4.5kg advantage. That was the first time he's missed a place here in three runs. Maybe a roughie for First Fours?
Tivaci beat G1 Oakleigh Plate fourth placegetter Hellbent first-up down the Flemington straight and he gave him 3kg that day. His only go at this track and trip was a second in the G2 Bobbie Lewis to G1 Oakleigh Plate second placegetter Faatinah. He was G1 competitive in the Spring. Super Cash beat Chautauqua first-up in the G2 Rubiton Stakes. She wasn't far off Sheidel in the G3 Begonia Belle (below) at this course and distance last October and she was on the slower side of the track. She hasn't been successful beyond 1100m since winning a maiden on debut at Sale 20 months ago.
Three of the runners are first-up an no horse has won this race fresh since Polycrates in 1917. It was never the intention with The Quarterback but he had to be withdrawn from the G1 Lightning Stakes after playing up in the barriers. He won this race last year but has to carry 3kg more but he is a five time winner here. Craig Newitt has won this race three times and will be looking to make up for getting dumped from Extreme Choice. Voodoo Lad failed at the end of last prep when asked to go to the mile for the first time in the G1 Cantala Stakes but previously he'd never missed a top three finish in 17 starts up to 1400m. He has three wins and four placings at 1200m from seven attempts but he's never won at Flemington. Redkirk Warrior ran a huge race first-up last prep when having his first Australian start. He was five deep on the turn and was only just grabbed on the finish line. This is a lot harder than that however.
Good luck to the connections of Inspector.
Locky's SelectionsThat was w-f-a. This is a handicap so while Terravista "drops" 1.5kg he stills meets them worse off at comparative weights. Still it's hard to knock a last start winner and his Flemington record (6:2-2-2) makes good reading because five of those runs (including the two wins) were at G1 level and three of his four defeats were by a quarter of a length or less.
Spieth meets him 1.5kg better off for that narrow defeat and you could argue that given a bit more luck in his two runs at Flemington to date he'd be a two-time G1 winner here. I don't know that barrier one is an ideal draw for him given his racing pattern but he's due for a change of luck. He's going to start favourite here and deservedly so with the services of Hugh Bowman he will be there when the whips are cracking.
Star Turn also gets a 1.5kg turnaround on Terravista. His two Flemington runs to date have resulted in G1 placings and second-up last prep he was a close second to Astern in the G2 Run To The Rose. He followed that up with a demolition job on the older sprinters in the G2 Schilacci Stakes.
Illustrious Lad meets Terravista 4kg to the good and was less than a length off him there after playing up early in the race. He's had three starts at the Flemington 1200m for two wins and a second and he'll be up on the speed giving you a sight. Counterattack was only two and a half lengths off them and gets a 4.5kg advantage. That was the first time he's missed a place here in three runs. Maybe a roughie for First Fours?
Tivaci beat G1 Oakleigh Plate fourth placegetter Hellbent first-up down the Flemington straight and he gave him 3kg that day. His only go at this track and trip was a second in the G2 Bobbie Lewis to G1 Oakleigh Plate second placegetter Faatinah. He was G1 competitive in the Spring. Super Cash beat Chautauqua first-up in the G2 Rubiton Stakes. She wasn't far off Sheidel in the G3 Begonia Belle (below) at this course and distance last October and she was on the slower side of the track. She hasn't been successful beyond 1100m since winning a maiden on debut at Sale 20 months ago.
Three of the runners are first-up an no horse has won this race fresh since Polycrates in 1917. It was never the intention with The Quarterback but he had to be withdrawn from the G1 Lightning Stakes after playing up in the barriers. He won this race last year but has to carry 3kg more but he is a five time winner here. Craig Newitt has won this race three times and will be looking to make up for getting dumped from Extreme Choice. Voodoo Lad failed at the end of last prep when asked to go to the mile for the first time in the G1 Cantala Stakes but previously he'd never missed a top three finish in 17 starts up to 1400m. He has three wins and four placings at 1200m from seven attempts but he's never won at Flemington. Redkirk Warrior ran a huge race first-up last prep when having his first Australian start. He was five deep on the turn and was only just grabbed on the finish line. This is a lot harder than that however.
Good luck to the connections of Inspector.
BEST
2. Spieth
DANGER
9. Star Turn
6. Extreme Choice
7. Illustrious Lad
1. Terravista
Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** Real Love is an early scratching ***
I have to stick with Humidor because I've been on his back his last three starts since he transferred to the Weir stable and all his runs have been full of merit. He's run three times at 2000m for two wins and a narrow second in the G1 Livamol Classic. I thought the blinkers might go on this start given his waywardness at his last two appearances but hopefully the stable has sorted that out. The bigger track should suit and Damian Lane and Darren Weir currently lead the Flemington jockey and training premierships.
BEST
10. Humidor
DANGER
11. Jameka
5. Ecuador
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Locky's Selections
BEST
10. Humidor
DANGER
11. Jameka
FOR EXOTICS
5. Ecuador
6. Exospheric
3. The United States
ROSEHILL
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 7. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***
Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares quality handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
I'm going with Euro Angel here. Six of the last nine winners started at double figure odds and 10 of the last 14 carried 53.5kg or less. She's drawn to get a lovely run from the good barrier and can handle wet tracks. Second-up last prep she won the G3 Ladies' Day Vase over a mile at Caulfield. She beat Rocket Commander on that occasion and that mare came out and won the G3 Wenona Girl Stakes last weekend. She did enough fresh to indicate she's come back in good order and the stable is riding high after success in last weekend's G1 Randwick Guineas with Inference.
BEST
11. Euro Angel
DANGER
14. Omei Sword
16. Denmagic
Locky's Selections
BEST
11. Euro Angel
DANGER
14. Omei Sword
FOR EXOTICS
16. Denmagic
13. Zanbagh
5. Heavens Above
2. Dixie Blossoms
Good punting!
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