The first G1 of the New Year and a star studded field will head to Caulfield.
And on top of all that Winx resumes in Sydney.
And on top of all that Winx resumes in Sydney.
Who's Hot?
Brenton Avdulla is a jockey I find hard to catch but he's forced his way into this segment with a double at Randwick last Saturday then flying to Tasmania to claim the Listed Thomas Lyons Stakes on Sunday before returning to N.S.W. to bag four winners from five rides at Newcastle on Tuesday.
He has almost a full book at Randwick tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Liapari (Race 1 No. 8), Impending (Race 5 No. 5), and Invincible Gem (Race 7 No. 13).
CAULFIELD
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day with a chance of a late shower. ***
C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
Current Sportsbet market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Black Heart Bart has had four starts here at Caulfield for three wins and a second to Winx. His 1400m record (11:6-4-0) is impressive including two from two at this course. Can he get across into a reasonable spot from the wide barrier? Brad Rawiller must think so because he could have ridden Lucky Hussler. Clearly the one to beat.
Malaguerra was devastating first-up and his second-up form (5:3-0-0) is impressive too. His last two runs at 1400m were poor although they were in a G1 Stradbroke Handicap and a G1 All Aged Stakes and he had excuses both times. He won his previous two starts at the trip though but barrier 12 doesn't help. He ran a record last start but can he back up? Wary.
Malaguerra was devastating first-up and his second-up form (5:3-0-0) is impressive too. His last two runs at 1400m were poor although they were in a G1 Stradbroke Handicap and a G1 All Aged Stakes and he had excuses both times. He won his previous two starts at the trip though but barrier 12 doesn't help. He ran a record last start but can he back up? Wary.
Lucky Hussler didn't see a lot of daylight when a fast finishing second in this race last year. His other three runs at this track and distance were a three length win over Under The Louvre in a G3 Moonga Stakes, a second to G1 winner Trust In A Gust and an unlucky sixth (below) in a G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes. He loves it here. Brad Rawiller jumps off him to ride the favourite though.
Divine Prophet won the G1 Caulfield Guineas at this track last Spring and takes on the older horses for the first time here. His first run back last campaign he unleashed a scintillating burst to come from last to win the G3 Up & Coming Stakes. He's had two trials so I expect him to be ready for action. Dwayne Dunn stays solid despite having first refusal on He's Our Rokkii.
12 of the last 15 winners have returned single figure odds and six of the last seven favourites have won but let's take a look at some of the longer priced chances.
Jameka is nominated for both the G1 Australian Cup and the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes so I doubt she'll be fully wound up for this assignment. She can run a race fresh at this distance as she showed when fourth (below) in the G2 Lawrence Stakes at this track and trip last August. Palentino is a horse I will be looking for at his next run. His second-up record is sound and could read even better had he not lost the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes to Tivaci in the stewards room. Ignore his poor form at this track because two of his three misses were first-up at 1200m and that's not his go. His other run in the G1 Memsie six months ago is forgivable because they went like scalded cats in front. Miss Rose De Lago has four wins and a placing from six starts at Caulfield. She goes well fresh and is drawn to get a good run. She won the G2 Lawrence Stakes (below) at this course and distance fresh last Spring.
Ecuador is in fine form having won four of his last five and he does go well at 1400m with four wins and two seconds from seven attempts. This however is a lot harder than anything he has tackled recently. Arod was brave in his only run in Australia last year when he faced the breeze three wide with 59kg and beat all bar the winner in the G3 Chatham Stakes. He'll get a better run here from the inside draw. He's Our Rokkii won first-up last Spring at this track and distance and then did so again at his next run. He's never missed a top two finish in four runs here including a win in the G1 Toorak Handicap. Regan Bayliss takes over from Dwayne Dunn.
Turn Me Loose won the G1 Futurity Stakes (below) at this track and trip this time last year. He was second-up that day too. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he lobbed into the first four and put some value in exotics. Awesome Rock hasn't won below a mile in nearly three years. I expect he'll need the run but he is a horse that when he does win it's usually unexpected. He was $31 when he saluted in the G2 Feehan Stakes last September and $18 when he won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at his last run.
What a cracking race to kick off G1 action in 2017!
Locky's Selections12 of the last 15 winners have returned single figure odds and six of the last seven favourites have won but let's take a look at some of the longer priced chances.
Jameka is nominated for both the G1 Australian Cup and the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes so I doubt she'll be fully wound up for this assignment. She can run a race fresh at this distance as she showed when fourth (below) in the G2 Lawrence Stakes at this track and trip last August. Palentino is a horse I will be looking for at his next run. His second-up record is sound and could read even better had he not lost the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes to Tivaci in the stewards room. Ignore his poor form at this track because two of his three misses were first-up at 1200m and that's not his go. His other run in the G1 Memsie six months ago is forgivable because they went like scalded cats in front. Miss Rose De Lago has four wins and a placing from six starts at Caulfield. She goes well fresh and is drawn to get a good run. She won the G2 Lawrence Stakes (below) at this course and distance fresh last Spring.
Ecuador is in fine form having won four of his last five and he does go well at 1400m with four wins and two seconds from seven attempts. This however is a lot harder than anything he has tackled recently. Arod was brave in his only run in Australia last year when he faced the breeze three wide with 59kg and beat all bar the winner in the G3 Chatham Stakes. He'll get a better run here from the inside draw. He's Our Rokkii won first-up last Spring at this track and distance and then did so again at his next run. He's never missed a top two finish in four runs here including a win in the G1 Toorak Handicap. Regan Bayliss takes over from Dwayne Dunn.
Turn Me Loose won the G1 Futurity Stakes (below) at this track and trip this time last year. He was second-up that day too. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he lobbed into the first four and put some value in exotics. Awesome Rock hasn't won below a mile in nearly three years. I expect he'll need the run but he is a horse that when he does win it's usually unexpected. He was $31 when he saluted in the G2 Feehan Stakes last September and $18 when he won the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at his last run.
What a cracking race to kick off G1 action in 2017!
BEST
1. Black Heart Bart
DANGER
3. Lucky Hussler
FOR EXOTICS
4. Malaguerra
11. Miss Rose De Lago
12. Divine Prophet
9. He's Our Rokkii
OTHER BETS
Wild Rain (Caulfield Race 6 No. 4) meets some quality opposition here but she did score impressively at this track and trip at the start of last campaign. Her previous fresh run was a second to The Quarterback down the straight at Flemington where he is practically untouchable. With Miss Promiscuity scratched it takes a lot of speed out of the race and I think this mare may be able to dictate the terms up front.
Humidor (Caulfield Race 8 No. 6) has had two second-up runs - both at 1600m - and has won both easily. His effort in the G1 Cantala Stakes at Flemington during the Spring Carnival (below) was probably the best four length ninth of 16 you will ever see. I'm hoping he gets clearer running room tomorrow. He meets Grande Rosso three kilos better off here for his last start defeat.
Humidor (Caulfield Race 8 No. 6) has had two second-up runs - both at 1600m - and has won both easily. His effort in the G1 Cantala Stakes at Flemington during the Spring Carnival (below) was probably the best four length ninth of 16 you will ever see. I'm hoping he gets clearer running room tomorrow. He meets Grande Rosso three kilos better off here for his last start defeat.
Good punting!
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