Monday, 30 January 2017

G2 Breeders Classic - 04.02.2106

Happy Chinese New Year!

I'm going to celebrate by rigidly conforming to the strictly enforced state suggestions for celebrating.

Who's Hot? 


In the last 18 days Ciaron Maher has had seven winners and six placegetters from just 22 starters.

He has three runners at Caulfield tomorrow in Jukebox (Race 4 No. 1), Lady Espirit (Race 8 No. 8), and Charlie Boy (Race 9 No. 1).

RANDWICK



*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a slight chance of a shower. ***

Breeders Classic (Group 2, 1200m, set weights plus penalties 4-y-o and up mares)


Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Danish Twist is suited by the conditions here because in a handicap she'd be giving at least 4kg to most of these so at just 1kg over the minimum she looks well placed. First-up last prep she was a narrow third to Takedown and Our Boy Malachi in the G2 Premiere Stakes at this track and trip. She hasn't been seen since finishing ninth (below) in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington at the end of last Spring when just a length and a half off the winner.



French Emotion was tremendous in the same race (above) finishing second beaten less than half a length. The last three winners of this race were having their first run back since a top five finish in that Flemington G1. Last prep she seemed to need a couple of runs before hitting her peak when she got to 1400m-1600m but she does have a good 1200m record. Hugh Bowman is looking for his fourth consecutive win in this race.

Flippant had three wins and a second from her first five starts but has managed just two wins in eight runs in the last 19 months. Still she thrashed Faatinah at the end of last prep (below) in the Listed MSS Security Stakes at Flemington on Cup Day. Last start at the Gold Coast wasn't too bad given she drew 16 and had to work early and was still battling away at the end with the big weight. Drops 5.5kg here.



Egyptian Symbol won the G3 Nivision at this track and trip four starts back and she's been a model of consistency throughout her career. Especially at this distance with three wins and three placings from seven starts with the only "failure" a two and a half length sixth in the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint behind the likes of Japonisme, Counterattack, Takedown and Ghisoni. She has a fitness edge on all of her rivals.

Tsaritsa is lightly raced but building an impressive record and just forget her last campaign because she didn't come up and they pulled the pin after just two runs. Go on her previous prep instead where she had four starts for three wins (including the G2 Queensland Guineas below) and a narrow third in the Listed Daybreak Lover Stakes. Trainer Chris Waller has won the last three renewals of this feature.



I Am Zelady has drawn the extreme outside in the field of nine and comes off a narrow miss last start in the Magic Millions Fillies & Mares race. Like Egyptian Symbol she saves her best for 1200m (8:2-1-3) but she's managed just one third placing here in two runs. Jockey Tim Clark had a winning double at Wyong on Wednesday from just three rides.


In Her Time is jumping from a BM78 to take on Black Type opposition here but she's earned her spot with two good wins with big weights to start this preparation. She'll appreciate some weight relief here but even though she still looks badly placed here meeting Flippant and I Am Zelady at level weights.

Circular and Magnajoy are just making up the numbers.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Danish Twist

DANGER  

5. Flippant

FOR EXOTICS

2. Tsaritsa
4. Egyptian Symbol
1. French Emotion

OTHER BETS


Morton's Fork (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) could nearly have been unbeaten last campaign except for some horror luck in the Listed Gothic Stakes before bumping into a good one in Comin' Through in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. He won first-up last prep (beating older horses) and his previous first up run was a second to Russian Revolution.

Faatinah (Caulfield Race 8 No. 1) is unbeaten fresh including a first-up win at the beginning of last prep down the straight in the G2 Bobbie Lewis over last weekend's impressive winner Tivaci. His one run at this course and distance he split Our Boy Malachi and Lankan Rupee in the G2 Caulfield Sprint last Spring. He does have his fair share of weight to carry but this race does look to have a long tail.

Good punting!

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