Thursday, 26 January 2017

G2 Australia Stakes - 28.01.2017

Action aplenty this weekend with the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley tonight, Black Type racing tomorrow in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA not to mention the G1 in NZ.

I'll need a good nanna nap after all that.

Who's Hot? 


In the past fortnight James Doyle has had six winners from 18 rides at a strike rate of one in three.

He's in Melbourne tonight to ride Chetwood (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 7) then he's straight back on a plane to ride in Sydney tomorrow where he'll partner Honeywine (Rosehill Race 5 No. 1), Handfast (Rosehill Race 6 No. 5), Sewreel (Rosehill Race 7 No. 4) and Badajoz (Rosehill Race  8 No. 4).

MOONEE VALLEY



*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a clear evening with light winds. ***

Australia Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)


Current Sportsbet market

 *** Cavaloce is an early scratching ***


Black Heart Bart has finished top two in 10 of his last 11 starts with his only miss being in the G1 Cox Plate. His last two fresh appearances resulted in a win in the G1 Memsie Stakes and a narrow second this time last year (below) in the G1 Newmarket Handicap. Seven tries at 1200m for four wins, two narrow seconds and a fourth in a G1 Goodwood.



Malaguerra flies fresh with five starts for four wins and a second to the flying 3-y-o Star Turn last campaign in the G2 Schillaci Stakes. He's won eight of his last 13 starts including two G1's from the 1200m start. He has five victories overall at this distance. He ticks a lot of boxes.

Chetwood is a lightly raced youngster on the way up taking on the big guns for the first time here. He was undefeated in four runs last prep culminating in a couple of Stakes race wins but nothing of this calibre. I expect he'll be competitive but whether he can challenge the top horses remains a query. Well backed.

They're the only three under double figure odds but of the rest Turn Me Loose trialled well for this and this time last year (below) he showed plenty of dash to lead them up in a G1 Orr Stakes and cling on for a one and a quarter length fourth. He has form at this distance early in his career and is unbeaten at the Valley.


Palentino is a G1 winner and his class will carry him a long way. First up last Spring he finished fourth over 1200m in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes with 60kg. He conceded 6kg to the winner Voodoo Lad on that occasion. His record suggests that he'll need further. Mourinho won this race first-up two years ago at $31. He finished seventh last year but was only three lengths off the winner Holler. He is a five-time winner here but he's also a rising 10-y-o. 

Peacock has never won fresh and his best form to date has been at 1400m with a couple of runs under his belt. He looks a nice young horse on the way up but this might be a bit hot for hime at this stage of his prep. Sirbible is three from five here and two from three at this track and trip. Not in this sort of company however. It Is Written has won here eight times and seven of those were at 1200m. He has started here 31 times though.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Malaguerra

DANGER  

1. Black Heart Bart

FOR EXOTICS

7. Chetwood
2. Turn Me Loose
5. Palentino

OTHER BETS


Stolen Dance (Trentham Race 8 No. 5) is a specialist miler with seven wins and three placings in her ten goes at the journey. She was a brave second in this race last year after beginning slowly and getting too far back. She carries the same weight this year and her last start win with a big weight was full of merit.

Music Magnate (Rosehill Race 6 No. 1) hasn't been seen for almost eight months but he did win the G3 Hall Mark Stakes first-up last campaign at this trip before claiming the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) two starts later. He won't be any flash price but he should just win and is a horse to follow.



Sir Moments (Sunshine Coast Race 7 No. 1) has had five third-up runs in his career for four wins and is a four-time winner at this journey. He's been dogged by injury his entire career but he's a very good type on his day when he's right. I loved the way he savaged the line at the Gold Coast last start in the Magic Millions Cup. It's probably the best ninth you'll ever see.

Good punting!

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