Thursday, 16 February 2017

G1 Lightning Stakes Day - 18.02.2017

11 Black Type races spread across four states tomorrow not to mention the ones at Moonee Valley tonight and Launceston on Sunday.

Just three weeks now until Super Saturday at Flemington and just four weeks until Golden Slipper Day.

Who's Hot? 


Hugh Bowman has had a stellar week with a double at Randwick on Monday followed by a treble at the same venue two days later. He'll be a busy boy this weekend with seven rides at Canterbury tonight before jetting off to Melbourne tomorrow.

He's picked up some nice rides at Flemington too namely Taking Aim (Race 4 No. 1), Nurse Kitchen (Race 5 No. 2), Spieth (Race 8 No. 7) and Our Century (Race 9 No. 3).

Then on Sunday he's off to Shatin to ride the talented Dinozzo for John Size in the G1 Hong Kong Classic Cup.

FLEMINGTON



*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers. ***

Lightning Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)


Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

12 of last 13 winners returned $5.50 or less for the win. Whilst 3-y-o's were dominant between 1986 and 2005 winning 12 of the 20 renewals of this race none have saluted since. So Flying Artie and Star Turn are looking to be the first juveniles in 12 years to win. It may be just me but Flemington straight races recently seem to have favoured runners who are drawn on the grandstand side and can sit on-pace.

Flying Artie has had two runs at Flemington for a win (below) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last Spring and a narrow second on debut in the G3 Maribyrnong Plate at this distance. His other four runs have yielded two G3 wins and placings in a G1 Blue Diamond and a G1 Golden Slipper. The 3-y-o's get 5kg from most of their rivals at the w-f-a scale here which could be a factor.



Star Turn has had just the one run here (above) when third to Flying Artie in the aforementioned G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. He's also finished behind him the other three times they've met. He does however have a victory over older horses on his resume which his fellow 3-y-o does not. That came in the G2 Schillaci Stakes last October when he beat up on the likes of Malaguerra and Fell Swoop.

Spieth won at his first go down the Flemington straight last June and should arguably be unbeaten here after an unlucky second (below) to Malaguerra in the G1 Darley Classic at the end of the Spring Carnival. That was his only defeat in his last five runs. His first-up win last prep was impressive but he's never been tried at 1000m. Hugh Bowman flies down from Sydney to take the ride.



Supido is unbeaten in four starts at Flemington. He won six on end before stepping up to the G1 Goodwood Handicap and finishing a three quarter length third to Black Heart Bart. He's won at his last four first-up appearances. Heatherly has had two runs up the Flemington straight for a win and a second. She's won three times at 1000m and placed at her other five attempts. This time last year she finished on the heels of Flamberge and Fell Swoop when third in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. Terravista won his first start at Flemington beating Chautauqua and Lankan Rupee in the 2014 G1 Darley Classic. He's had four starts here since for placings in another G1 Darley Classic, a G1 Newmarket Handicap, a G3 Mumm Stakes and this race last year.

It's $15+ the rest but there are some good types at long odds.

Illustrious Lad is a three-time winner at 1000m and has won twice at this track including a last start win in the G2 Linlithgow Stakes on Derby Day beating Counterattack. He hasn't missed a top-two placing at his last seven starts. The Quarterback is a five-time winner at Flemington including three from six at this trip and a win (below) in last year's G1 Newmarket Handicap. His other victory here came first-up last campaign in the G2 Gilgai Stakes. 


Counterattack has raced twice down the Flemington straight for placings in a G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and a G2 Linlithgow Stakes behind Illustrious Lad. He's had two runs at this distance for two seconds but that was as a 2-y-o. Flamberge wasn't far off Tivaci first-up with 62.5kg in the Listed Kensington Stakes at this track and trip. Last March he won the G1 William Reid Stakes second-up. His overall record here isn't flash (13:3-1-1) but at least he has a run under his belt. So too does Faatinah but he was average last start when a short priced favourite in the Listed Adams Stakes although jockey Regan Bayliss reported it may have been the firm track. He's only won once here in five attempts.  Missrock has won two from three first-up including the G3 Percy Sykes Stakes at Randwick during The Championships. She has started three times at 1000m for a win on debut in the Listed Debutant Stakes and a third at this track and distance in the G3 Ottawa Stakes during Cup Week. Orujo is poorly placed at the w-f-a scale. He wouldn't be out of place in Race 1 but this looks way out of his league. No.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

7. Spieth

DANGER  

11. Flying Artie

FOR EXOTICS

12. Star Turn
10. Heatherly
3. The Quarterback
1. Terravista

OTHER BETS


Comin' Through (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4) hit the line strongly at his first run back since winning the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. He ran faster closing sectionals than the winner Man From Uncle and meets him 2.5kg better off here. Stepping up to 1400m will suit him better than the 1200m last start and he should be nearing peak fitness now with the G1 Randwick Guineas just a fortnight away.

Good punting!

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