28.11.2015

The good races are pretty thin on the ground so I've been scanning the nominations since they came out on Monday trying to find a winner.

Unfortunately all the ones I found seem to have been found by other people and have been well backed and tipped by many a form analyst.

But I'll stick to my guns and give you my original tips despite the skinny prices and the fact that I'll probably be accused of laziness and tip stealing!

Who's Hot? 

Richard Jolly is in good touch of late with six winners from his last 19 starters at a strike rate of 32.6%.

He has three runners at Morphetville tomorrow - Evil Dreams (Race 2 No. 1), Heartz Ablaze (Race 2 No. 5) and Enduro (Race 5 No. 5).

ASCOT

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day.***

A.J. Scahill Stakes (Group 3, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

Watermans Bay won this race last year. His record at the 1400m reads well with two wins and four seconds from eight attempts including a win and two seconds at this track from just four starts. His last go at the journey was three starts back when he won the G3 Victoria Handicap at Caulfield during the Autumn. He chased home Buffering last start (below) in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes - a race he ran second in last year before claiming this feature.

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of showers.***

George Moore Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

Didntcostalot looks well weighted here at just 1kg over the minimum. He's one of five Tony Gollan runners in a field of just 12 and jockey Tegan Harrison is sticking solid. They are a formidable team who have combined for 20 winners and 22 placegetters from just 70 runners so far this season. He's never missed a place in five starts at Doomben (three wins, two placings) and he will give you a good sight for a long way.

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day.***

Festival Stakes (Listed, 1500m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

Frespanol will appreciate being back on a firm surface after lumping 58.5kg last start on a Heavy 9 when he just missed. Five of his six wins have come on dry tracks and he was dropping back from the mile to the 1350m on that occasion. He meets Zanbagh 2kg better off here for that defeat and prior to that he beat Rock Sturdy and Casino Dancer who have both since run well at the Flemington Carnival. His first two starts this campaign he finished alongside subsequent G1 winner Good Project.

Starlight Stakes (Listed, 1100m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

Dublin Lass has only missed a top two finish twice in her last 10 starts stretching back to October last year and both those failures were when they tried to stretch her to 1400m. Her first up second in the G3 Mumm Stakes at Flemington on Oaks Day was enormous given she came down the inferior ground on the inside rail. The great barrier draw and the light weight should she her get a soft run here.

G1 Winterbottom Stakes Day - 21.11.2015

All eyes turn to the West for the big double at Ascot headlined by the G1 Winterbottom Stakes.

It's been a fascinating race in the last decade with an honour roll that includes the likes of Miss Andretti, Marasco, Takeover Target, Ortensia (twice) and Buffering.

The other feature is the G1 Railway Stakes for the handicappers over the mile plus we also have the running of the G2 W.A. Guineas.

Who's Hot? 

Grant Williams is the man to follow in W.A. at the moment because so far this season one of every three of his runners wins and six out of every ten are placed. He's had eight winners across the last four Ascot Saturday meetings.

His best chances tomorrow look to be Neverland (Ascot Race 4 No. 8), Celebrity Dream (Ascot Race 5 No. 10), Arcadia Dream (Ascot Race 6 No. 15) and Delicacy (Ascot Race 8 No. 3).

ASCOT

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day.***

Winterbottom Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Sheidel is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Fast 'n' Rocking:  Only one horse in the last decade returned a winning dividend greater than $9 and since the race achieved G1 status in 2011 no winner has paid more than $7.50. All bar two of them drew barrier eight or inside which is not surprising given the sharp turn and short run home at Ascot. 

Buffering won this race two years ago at his only appearance here to date. The scratching sees him come into barrier nine and he should have the early speed to cross and lead. His last start fourth (below) in the G1 Darley Classic is good enough to win here. He is the horse best placed at the w-f-a scale and the obvious one to beat.

Lucky Street is a promising looking 3-y-o on an upward spiral. He has five wins and a second from eight career starts but this is a big step up from his win a fortnight ago in a BM78+. Having said that the last four winners of this race were coming off a last start win but no 3-y-o has won since 2002.

Magnifisio has a tremendous record at this track and distance with three wins and three placings including a victory (below) in this very race last year. She has to overcome the extreme outside barrier but jockey Jason Brown has won two of the last three renewals of this race. One of the few who gets a weight advantage from the favourite.


Waterman's Bay was third in this race two years ago and a luckless second last year (below) so if the natural progression continues he should win here. His last run at this track and distance was a second to Black Heart Bart in the Listed Cyril Flower Stakes when conceding him 5kg. The wide draw makes it tough.

Fast 'n' Rocking should get a good run from the inside draw and if he can weave through or find a gap he will be charging late. He'll be hoping for a fast run race because that's when he's at his best. The stable has had a good run of success lately with Almoonqith, Extra Choice, Sacred Eye, Keen Array, Stay With Me, Sovereign Nation and Criterion.

Everything else is $12 or better but there are a few who look like they will get soft runs in transit. 

Liberty's Gem will be up on the pace making his own luck. He's only missed a place three times and that was at the end of last prep when they tried to stretch him out to 1400m-1600m. He has four wins and a third from five runs here at Ascot including two from two at this trip.

Rock Magic beat a couple of his aforementioned rivals in the G3 Colonel Reeves last start. That was his first win at Ascot in four attempts and he has missed a place at five of his seven 1200m runs. The good barrier helps his chances too but like so many others he is really poorly weighted here.

Silverstream sneaks into the field with the scratching. G1 genius Damien Oliver takes the ride for the previously mentioned Grant Williams stable. He's won his last three in a row since resuming from a spell - all of them here at Ascot - but this looks harder. From the handy gate I expect he'll be closer to the lead now he's stepping up to 1200m.

Rommel won the G2 W.A. Guineas on this day last year (above) and left Disposition and Delicacy in his wake. He's been placed in three of four first-up runs and won the G3 Zeditave Stakes at Caulfield during the Autumn. At a quote of $41 he could be a good roughie for trifectas and other exotic bets.

Good punting!

Locky's Selections

1. Buffering

2. Fast 'n' Rocking 
3. Waterman's Bay
6. Rommel

G1 Melbourne Cup Day - 03.11.2015

Cup Day. Or as my grandfather used to call it - "that midweek welter handicap".

A very short blog focusing on the main race because as always I am on holidays this week and have four of these to write over a space of eight days - usually whilst hungover.

Add that to the fact that I also have to try and fit in the odd swim, a dozen games of NFL, the Rugby World Cup final and the start of the First Test and I will be a very drunk  busy boy.

It’s a tough life but at least I have a window office.

Who's Hot? 

Phillip Stokes brought just two runners from his Morphettville base in SA to Flemington on Derby Day and bagged a G2 win with Eclair Choice. He did a similar thing last year training four winners over the carnival with three coming on the final day including the G1 Emirates Stakes with Hucklebuck.

Tomorrow he has just the one runner in Comprende (Flemington Race 6 No. 7).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day.***

The Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

If you watch Channel 7 tomorrow at one stage or another you are going to hear a "tipster" (no doubt some fatuous bimbo from a soap opera) say that all 24 of these have a chance. 

The reality is they do not. 

Every year the Melbourne Cup is run and the next day the newspaper shows a panoramic photo of where they all finished and almost always you have about 14 of the 24 who get beaten by 100 yards or more. So the key is to finding the horses you know will see out a strong 3200m and have the profile to be competitive.

So for what it is worth here is my never humble opinion.

I have Trip To Paris on top. He is a G1 Ascot Gold Cup winner over 4000m, he has had one run in Australia and proved he has acclimatised with a narrow second (below) in the G1 Caulfield Cup, with 55kg he is well weighted and he has a local jockey. The favourite Fame Game is obviously the main danger but the 57kg worries me and although he was the eye-catcher in the G1 Caulfiled Cup he was still four and a half lengths astern of Trip To Paris. I think the best of the local hopes is Preferment because he has the pedigree for this journey (his sire Zabeel has produced three Cup winners) and he’s had two starts here at Flemington for wins in the G1 VRC Derby and G1 Turnbull Stakes. He won’t know himself with just 53.5kg. I’m rounding out my Top Four with a roughie to add a bit of value to exotics and that horse is Red Cadeuax. He looks juicy odds at $31+ for a horse who has run in this race four times for three seconds and he looks well weighted too.

Of the others in the market I think Criterion (below) is poorly weighted and a query at the two miles. Max Dynamite has not had a run in this country which I don’t like but he has form around Trip To Paris. Who Shot Thebarman is one you know will definitely see out the 3200m but he couldn’t win last year with a similar weight and this field looks much stronger. Almoonqith was dominant in the G3 Geelong Cup but while that race was a good guide for a little while the last few renewals have been pretty weak. The United States defied the track pattern to win the G2 Moonee Valley Cup but it has been a poor reference race and he’s another who is on trial at the distance.

For those of you who like to go for big priced longshots of those that I haven’t mentioned yet Our Ivanhowe went well in the G1 Caulfield Cup but the big weight and the likelihood of a firm surface won’t suit him. Hartnell went OK (above) in the G1 Cox Plate and gives the appearance he’s looking for the longer journey now. Hokko Brave had a wide run last start at Caulfield and didn’t shirk the task. Grand Marshal is a G1 Sydney Cup winner so the two miles holds no fears and he was luckless in the run to the line last start and should have finished closer. Gust Of Wind has just 51kg and won the G1 ATC Oaks by two and a half lengths beating Winx. Her fourth in the G1 Caulfield Cup was good and she looks like further will be to her advantage.

But just be aware that since Tawriffic saluted in 1989 only two winners in the last quarter of a century have paid $21 or more.

Good luck!

Locky's Selections

10. Trip To Paris

3. Fame Game 
15. Preferment
9. Red Cadeaux

G1 VRC Derby Day - 31.10.2015

VRC Derby Day. Nine races - four G1's, two G2's and three G3's. Possibly the best day of racing all year.

Having said that it's going to be hard to top Winx and Chautauqua last weekend.

A more concise format this week because there is so much to get through. My apologies if the formatting is screwed up and some comes up in CAPS but I have done something unwittingly and don't have the IT knowledge to fix it.

Who's Hot? 

I'm going a bit left field here and naming Ascot trainer Adam Durrant.

In the last nine days he's had seven winners and five placegetters from 18 starters.

He doesn't often leave Perth but he has brought Kia Ora Koutou (Flemington Race 7 No. 3) over for the G1 VRC Derby. He also has quite a few runners at the Ascot meeting too.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a high chance of rain with possibly some heavy falls in the afternoon.***

VRC Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

These boys are going to appreciate the fact that none of the smart fillies are entered.

Tarzino just keeps putting in incredible performances to win despite bad luck in running but I can't take $2.50. Efficient in 2006 is the last favourite to win and some pretty good types have been beaten at skinny quotes - think Marching, Whobegotyou, Manawanui, It's A Dundeel and Hampton Court. He can win but I won't be backing him. Extra Choice won the Listed Geelong Classic last start over 2200m and he didn't have a soft run. I think he'll stay the trip. Pay Up Bro was third in that race and hit the line hard. 2500m looks right up his alley. Kia Ora Koutou is bred to stay. His sire Blackfriars won this race in 1999 and his maternal line boasts two G1 Melbourne Cup winners because his dam Kia Ora Miss is a daughter of Jeune and a granddaughter of At Talaq. Unbeaten back home in Perth and last start he beat older horses in a 2200m race as an early season 3-y-o which doesn't happen often. Get The Picture charged late behind G1 VRC Oaks favourite Sacred Eye last start (below) and is another who looks like the mile and a half will suit.

Lizard Island was left in front too soon (above) when Ayer's Rock threw up the white flag before the turn in the G3 Caulfield Classic. He was only run down on the line by Sacred Eye. I just wonder if he has the pedigree to see out the trip because he's by Sebring out of a Choisir mare. Etymology is different. I think he'll stay all day. His sire New Approach and his grandsire Galileo both won the G1 Epsom Derby. He ran on well behind Sacred Eye and Lizard Island without threatening and I like the fact that he can take a position in his races where are few of his opponents lack early tactical speed. Jadeer had the perfect trail last start and loomed to win at Geelong but I thought Extra Choice and Pay Up Bro performed better given they had tougher runs in transit. Ditto Ragnaar.

Locky's Selections

3. Kia Ora Koutou

7. Tarzino
8. Get The Picture
13. Pay Up Bro

Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Fawkner and Magic Hurricane are early scratchings ***

I'm looking to the G1 Cox Plate form here because five of the last six winners of this race came via that path.

Happy Trails won this race last year and forget his run last Saturday (below) because he was back and wide on a track the was clearly favouring the rail and horses near the lead. At his previous run he split Criterion and Mongolian Khan and he's a three-time G1 winner here at Flemington. Pornichet was good in the same race but did get a lovely rails run and got carted into the race by Winx. On his G1 Doomben Cup form he can be prominent here. Gailo Chop was sound too given he was another who had a torrid run and Flemington will suit him better than Moonee Valley.

Contributer will appreciate a race without The Cleaner where he doesn't have to chase a hot speed. Stratum Star proved he can run a strong 2000m last start (and with a big weight too) so he's earned his shot at w-f-a. Set Square was good in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance. Ecuador was second to Winx last start in the G1 Epsom Handicap and Flamingo Star was unlucky in the G1 Toorak Handicap but flew late.

Locky's Selections

2. Happy Trails
4. Pornichet

7. Gailo Chop
5. Contributer

Myer Classic (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o and up fillies and mares w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

This has been a funny race in the last 11 years with five winners starting favourite at $4 or less while the other six winners returned $16 or more.

I'm tipping Stay With Me will be in the finish but I can't tip her on top. I'm just harking back to 2004 when Alinghi got beaten at odds-on when everyone thought as a three-year-old at the w-f-a scale she was a certainty. This race is almost always won by a seasoned mare. Royal Descent could be that mare. Clearly the w-f-a scale favours her more than anyone here and she's back to the mile which seems to be her best trip. If you forgive Fenway one bad run when something clearly wasn't right she's juicy odds. Abidewithme drops back to fillies and mares grade after two good runs behind the boys (below) in G1's when she had no luck.

La Passe is flying at the moment and I love mares in form. Solicit went well first-up behind her and has a good second-up record. I can't see what Politeness has done so terribly wrong that she's been put up at $13. I could say the same about May's Dream. Azkadellia was good against the bias at Moonee Valley last week. Jessy Belle just keeps running honest races.

Locky's Selections

1. Royal Descent
15. Stay With Me

12. Fenway
9. Abidewithme

Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Exosphere dominates the betting here and I have to tip him on top despite the short price. He's been simply outstanding in his three wins this campaign and he's beaten the likes of Press Statement and Speak Fondly along the way and they are subsequent G1 winners. On that basis Sebring Sun has to be in the mix somewhere on his last start third (below) to Exosphere in the G1 Golden Rose. So too Counterattack who has since won. Hellbent chased him home on that occasion and didn't have much luck and they nearly broke the track record.

That's my Top Four but I admit there are others who will have their supporters. You could make cases for Ready For Victory, Super One, Keen Array, Japonisme, Dal Cielo and Mogador.

Locky's Selections

1. Exosphere
8. Sebring Sun
6. Counterattack

11. Hellbent

G1 Manikato Stakes/G1 Cox Plate Double - 23-24.10.2015

The best two minutes in sport. Enough said.

I will be focusing purely on the two big G1's as I am in Melbourne with the lads for the weekend and I have bigger priorities!

This was our view at lunch today.

Who's Hot?

Tough weekend in Melbourne so I'm looking to Sydney and Team Snowden.

Last weekend they had two Sydney Stakes winners in Nayeli and Dothraki who ran the quinella with stablemate That's A Good Idea. The previous Saturday Serene Majesty won a G3 at Caulfield and the weekend prior to that Capitalist won a Listed race at Randwick.

The have two runners at Moonee Valley - Disclaimer (Race 3 No. 5) tonight and Serene Majesty (Race 5 No. 1) tomorrow - plus three at Randwick tomorrow in Ryker (Race 4 No. 4), Hand From Above (Race 6 No. 2) and Nancy (Race 9 No. 1). 

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny weekend.***

Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Preferment: Only one favourite (So You Think $1.50) has won in the last nine years and all the other winners returned $6+. Five of those eight returned double figure dividends. The last five winners finished top three at their previous run and four of them were 4-y-o's.

No particular order here just trying to frame a narrative around the key lead-up races.

Winx just keeps putting in incredible performances to win despite bad luck in running and Hugh Bowman has elected to ride her over Preferment which is a big tick. She's drawn the inside barrier so she should get a cosy run and the trip isn't a concern because she finished second in the G1 Australian Oaks to Gust Of Wind who ran well last weekend in the G1 Caulfield Cup. My concern is this is her first go the Melbourne way and I wonder if her racing pattern suits a track with a very short straight. Only three winners of this race in the last 20 years have come off a last start run in the G1 Epsom Handicap and none of them had won it.

Now let's look at the international brigade.

Arod is two from two at the trip and has never missed a place in three first up runs. Last campaign he had five starts for two wins and three placings in Black Type races with his final run being a half length second (below) in the G1 Sussex Stakes behind superstar Solow. That horse has won his last nine starts with the last three being at G1 level.

Gailo Chop has won four times at 2000m and is a winner of seven of 12 overall so his strike rate can't be knocked. He too has Solow form with a one and a half length second three runs back in the G1 Prix D'Ispahan at Longchamp. He'd love a downpour because his best form has been on slow tracks and a wide barrier worries me for a horse having his first look at this track especially given they have a very short run to the first (very sharp) turn.

Highland Reel has a similar profile to last year's winner Adelaide. He has the same trainer in Aidan O'Brien, he's a northern hemisphere three-year old and he comes via. They also have the same champion sire in G1 Epsom Derby winner Galileo. His pedigree is pretty good on his maternal side too because his dam Hveger is a full sister to G1 Caulfield Cup winner Elvstroem. The good barrier should help him given this is his first look at the track.

Criterion made the other local w-f-a types look pretty ordinary when winning the G1 Caulfield Stakes last start because he was two months between runs and had basically just stepped out of quarantine at Werribee yet he breezed to a pretty soft win. The horse that finished third was Mongolian Khan and he won last Saturday's G1 Caulfield Cup. Third run in last prep he brained them in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. World class.

Happy Trails was a close second to Criterion that day and finished ahead of Kermadec (4th) and Fawkner (6th) so I am struggling to see why he is at such juicy odds compared to the other three. This is the fourth year in a row he has contested this race and he hasn't been far away in the last two finishing a narrow second to Shamus Award two years ago and a half length sixth last year behind Adelaide. Barrier 13 is not too bad because he'll drift back anyway.

Kermadec was just OK last start but jockey Glen Boss said "he probably wants a bit more jar out of the track". Moonee Valley never really gets that firm so he could improve on this surface given they've had a sprinkling of rain and I'm not too worried about barrier 10 because I'm pretty sure he's going to settle worse than midfield. He was favourite for this race up until his last start defeat and you have to forgive a good horse one bad run.

Pornichet did not beat a runner home last start which is out of character for him. He'll likely be driven out of the wide barrier and attempt to get across into a handy position before they pass the winning post the first time. It just goes to show what a quality field this is when a top class guy like this can start as the $41 despised outsider.

Preferment may just be a Spring horse. He won last year's G1 VRC Derby but he had a disappointing Autumn apart from his narrow second in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. He's had three starts this Spring and has won his last two including the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) last start. His previous victory in the G2 Hill Stakes he beat Magic Hurricane (2nd) who then came out and won the G1 Metropolitan Handicap and Complacent (3rd) who came out and won the G3 Craven Plate.

Hartnell was ridden back in the field (above) in the aforementioned G1 Turnbull Stakes won by Preferment in a bid to get him to relax. It seemed to do the trick but it may have worked too well because he was on the back of the winner on straightening but just got out sprinted. He got passed late by Extra Zero which bothers me yet he beat home Amralah, Who Shot Thebarman, Happy Trails and Gust Of Wind who have all since run well. Is he looking for further?

Mourinho is the forgotten horse. His last start win (below) in the G1 Underwood Stakes he relegated Fawkner, The Cleaner and Mongolian Khan to the minor placings. Since being controversially denied a start in this race last year he's started eight time for four wins (three G2's and a G1) and a G1 third. He's had four runs from the 2040m starting point here at Moonee Valley for three wins and a third. They probably have to press forward from the wide gate but hopefully he can get across into some sort of position before the turn out of the straight. $41. Seriously?

Fawkner had this race won last year until Adelaide nailed him in the final bound. Before his last start flop in the G1 Caulfield Stakes I would have said he's going better this time around because I loved his gritty first-up win in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and then he just missed Mourinho (above) in the G1 Underwood Stakes. He's such a good horse he can't be written off and Team Williams have won two G1 Melbourne Cups with last start failures in Green Moon and Efficient so a form reversal wouldn't surprise. Horrible barrier.

The Cleaner will lead from barrier two. That's my bold prediction. It may be my only correct tip all day given they way I'm going. He led them up in this race last year and although he finished ninth he was only beaten three and a half lengths and toughed it out all the way to the line. It'd be great to see him get up because it would be an emotional result but I just think he struggles at a tough mile and a quarter.

Complacent has only missed a place once in his career and that was the day he was taken out of the race by another horse.  He spent more than 21 months off the scene injured after his second in the G1 VRC Derby of 2013 but since his return he's won the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (beating home Kermadec, Hartnell, Pornichet and Preferment in the process) and the G3 Craven Plate. Godolphin have flown in their retained rider James Doyle from England to take the ride so they're not mucking about.

Locky's Selections

13. Highland Reel

1. Criterion
3. Happy Trails
11. Kermadec

Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Chautauqua: In the last 12 years only three winners have returned more than $5.50.

10 horse field - the five go forward runners drew barriers six through ten while the five get back and run on types drew barriers one through five. Tactics will be interesting.

Chautauqua will start odd-on which looks a scary prospect given he'll probably have to come from well back in the field. I don't see a lot of speed in the race but what I do see is a lot of talent. I wouldn't be surprised if he absolutely brained them here but there's no way I can take such a skinny quote. Certainly a must for quaddies and other exotics but I don't see him as a straight out win bet option. Beat a few of these (below) when winning the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes earlier this year.

Terravista has shown himself to be one of the best sprinters in the country when he is right looking back at his win (below) in last year's G1 Darley Classic when he beat home the likes of Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee, Buffering and Rebel Dane. He's three from five second-up and five from eight at the trip and you could make an argument that he should have won this race last year when he was completely luckless in running. His fresh win was good and he's sure to improve with a run under his belt.

Srikandi is only having two runs this Spring and then she's off to the spelling paddock so expect her to be forward in condition. She'll be closer to the leaders than some of the other fancied runners which is a big plus and she has won at her last two first-up appearances. She's a two time G1 winner already and she rarely runs a bad race with nine wins and two placings from 13 starts.

Buffering is silly odds considering he is likely to get a pretty soft time up front. He's a five time winner at this track including three at this distance. He appears to be getting better with age because from 13 starts in the last two years he has five wins (all at G1 level) and four placings. He was a half length sixth in a blanket finish in this race last year and he won it the previous year. A last start winner here (below) in the G1 Moir Stakes - his third in four years.

Rebel Dane has come back a much more genuine horse since his throat operation. In four starts here he's never won and has only placed once but he was one of the many hard luck stories in this race last year so he gets around the tight circuit fine. The problem is he could face a similar story this year because he's going to get back to worse than midfield. He took ground off Terravista late last start but the other horse was first-up off a break and wasn't knocked about.

Alpha Miss surprised almost everyone when a shock winner last start in the G2 Schillaci Stakes beating odds-on favourite Lankan Rupee. However if you overlook her three poor performances last Spring her form reads well. She won three of her first four starts then was a half length third to Earthquake and Mossfun in the G2 Reisling Stakes before failing on a heavy track in the G1 Golden Slipper. She isn't the first filly to disappoint as a 3-y-o after a tough 2-y-o season and maybe the long spell was just what she needed.

Fast 'n' Rocking always seems to run well here and the stable is in good touch at the moment. His last start win was convincing. Rich Enuff has the blinkers on for the first time so they might switch him on. He'll probably try to hold Buffering out and find the lead. If he recaptures the form of last Spring he's more than capable. Griante chased hard behind Buffering last start and had the best closing sectionals but again it was set-up for the swoopers. She ran a two length third to Lucky Hussler in the G1 William Reid Stakes at this track and distance last March. Three starts back she chased home Fell Swoop and two starts back she was a narrow second to Politeness. Both those horses won at their next starts. Tiger Tees is a half brother to Terravista and a full brother to Ball Of Muscle but he's the brother the rest of the family doesn't talk about. I know how he feels.

Locky's Selections

1. Buffering
8. Srikandi

2. Chautauqua
9. Griante