Expressway Stakes preview

Thankfully I wasn't singing for my supper last weekend with Puccini ($7) winning the G1 Thorndon Mile (below) at Trentham. My best roughie Mourinho ($31/$4.50) also managed to kick a goal in the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley while my other two selections in Role Model ($2.90) and Arena Rock ($1.50) just missed with narrow seconds.

We're a bit lighter on this weekend in terms of quality but we do have the G2 Expressway Stakes at Rosehill. It's supported by a couple of good juvenile races which see the reappearance of two unbeaten Waterhouse youngsters currently in commission in G1 Golden Slipper betting in Giulietta and Vancouver. Throw in the two brothers of Golden Slipper winners in Outreach (Overreach) and Mawahibb (Mossfun) plus the all conquering Godolphin stable (Chamarel and Igraine) and they shape as fascinating contests.

It's been a wet week in Sydney - they have copped more than 100mm in the last seven days including 80mm Tuesday/Wednesday - but the last two days have been relatively dry and sunny and the track is on the improve.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Team Hawkes has had 12 runners in the last nine days for five winners and two placegetters at a strike rate of 41.7% Win / 58.3% Place.

They saddle up a few chances tomorrow at Rosehill tomorrow in Mawahibb (Race 1 No. 4), Lake Geneva (Race 4 No. 10), Eyre (Race 5 No. 6), Lorna May (Race 8 No. 13) plus another at Flemington in Laohu (Race 9 No. 12).

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Expressway Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Boban: The honour roll for this race over the last 20 years is quite impressive.  G1 winners Appearance, Rangirangdoo, Mentality, Lonhro, Tie The Knot, Mr Innocent, Saintly and Soho Square to name just a few. Surprising given most of those did their best racing at 1600m and beyond. Historically it has suited horses who are first-up.

"The Speed Map" says - I expect that only That's A Good Idea and Panzer Division will go forward. The rest I think will go back unless they are ridden against their normal pattern, and they just might be given that it is the only way they can be competitive.

Panzer Division rolled over the top of his rivals to score easily on debut before being just outgunned by his talented stablemate Scissor Kick second-up. He then led all the way on a Heavy 9 to win the G3 Ming Dynasty Quality beating subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Shooting To Win. His next two runs were OK beaten two and a half lengths against open company in the G1 George Main and he just didn't see out the 2000m of the G1 Spring Champion. He's in well at the w-f-a and although drawn wide he should cross comfortably given the lack of speed. The one to beat.

Weary looked like a tired horse last Spring but if he can recapture his Autumn form he looks the best of Chris Waller's five runners. He's had two fresh runs since coming to Australia and he was beaten just over a length on both occasions. His wet form reads well too with a win in the G3 Doncaster Prelude, a second in the G1 All Aged Stakes and a third in the G1 Doncaster Mile (below).

That's A Good Idea has been racing consistently in much weaker grade but he does have race fitness on his side. The concern is his best run on a wet surface was a one length third in an 1100m Warwick Farm BM 95. I don't think he's suited at w-f-a either because in a handicap he would be getting about 5kg weight relief from most of his rivals. He's had three runs here at the Rosehill 1200m and does boast a win (in a BM 95 beating Heart Testa) but his other two goes he was beaten out of sight (11th of 11 beaten 10 lengths in a Maiden and 9th of 10 beaten 7 lengths).

Boban impressed first-up this time last year when a fast finishing fifth behind Appearance in this very race. He didn't have a lot of luck that day and probably should have finished closer and he did come out two starts later and claim the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) beating It's A Dundeel. That was his third G1 victory (all at the mile) but it's also the last time he won and his wet track form is poor (7:1-0-0). 

Driefontein is another who will not like the fact that the track is rain affected. She has just a solitary second from seven attempts on wet tracks and that came in a Listed 2-y-o fillies race almost three years ago. Despite being trained in Sydney it's been 16 months since she won a race here. I'm looking elsewhere.

The rest are double figures but if you're hunting for roughies to throw into your exotics Malavio can run a race fresh and his form on affected surfaces is sound. Hawkspur is a quality horse and handles the wet and although this may be too short for him he could lob into a place.

Locky's Selections

11 Panzer Division
1 Boban
4 Weary
6 Malavio

Other bets

Better Land (Flemington Race 3 No. 9) is drawn to get a good run here after a couple of luckless runs last campaign. He romped in on debut last April and was sent straight to the spelling paddock. He resumed with a second to Scissor Kick in the Listed Rosebud when trapped deep most of the way and then probably should have won the G3 Up and Coming Stakes when he was carted of the track by the wayward Liberation. He can atone here. Opened $2.90.

Sarajevo (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) is another who was competitive without winning in the good Sydney 3-y-o races last Spring. He's had two trials in readiness for this and won both so he is obviously well forward in his preparation. Go on his devastating last-to-first debut win and he is in this up to his ears. Jockey James McDonald is in good touch too with four winners last Saturday at Randwick and another at Ellerslie (NZ) the following day. Opened $3.20.

L'entrecote (Doomben Race 9 No. 7) gets in nicely with the claim for the apprentice jockey and after three runs this time in he looks ready to score. His only two previous runs fourth-up have resulted in a win and a second. His last two attempts at the 1600m have produced a three length win and a fighting second when he attempted to lead all the way on a Heavy 10. Opened $9.00.

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Australia Stakes preview

Welcome back and let me just begin by saying Happy New Year and have a great Australia Day long weekend!

As usual at this time of year we have the G1 Thorndon Mile (Trentham - NZ), the G2 Australia Stakes (Moonee Valley) and the running of the Australia Day Cup (Randwick) tomorrow followed-up by the Blue Diamond Previews at Sandown on Monday.

Sandwiched in between those is the Karaka Millions meeting in New Zealand with several Aussie based jockeys heading to Ellerslie on Sunday including Tommy Berry, Hugh Bowman, Damian Browne, Jason Collett and James McDonald.

The good horses are starting to reappear too with G1 winners Dissident and Moment of Change resuming this week while four others - Shooting To Win, Hallowed Crown, Hampton Court and Diamond Drille - will have exhibition gallops at Randwick tomorrow.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Hugh Bowman has had a big fortnight with trebles at Gosford and Canterbury plus a Saturday Randwick double. All-up he has ridden 10 winners and nine placegetters from his last 27 rides. (Win 37% / Place 70%) 

He has a full book at at Randwick tomorrow but his best chances on paper look to be Sebring Sun (Race 1 No. 2), Choice We Had (Race 2 No. 5), Role Model (Race 5 No. 1), That's A Good Idea (Race 7 No. 5) and Harrier Jet (Race 8 No. 11).

Moonee Valley

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

Australia Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Richie's Vibe is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Dissident: This race has been won by some quality horses since its inception in 1989 including Black Caviar (twice), El Segundo, All Our Mob, Hareeba and Schillaci. However I don't know how much we can read into that given the constant changing nature of this race which has been run at different times of the year, with different grades and names and one year even a different venue.

"The Speed Map" says - A lot of pace here. Dissident, It Is Written, Hard Stride and Tudor should all be handy. Audino did go back last start but prior to that he raced up near the lead in his races and from the wide gate he may have to press forward. Mourinho does like to be in the first half of the field too but this lot may be a bit too zippy for him. Smokin' Joey and Blackie to be in the second half of the field.

Dissident is the class horse of the race with three G1 victories already under his belt including the Makybe Diva Stakes last Spring where he took care of Fawkner (below). He's had a couple of jump-outs in readiness for this, similar to last prep when he won the G1 Memsie Stakes first-up. There are queries such as is Moonee Valley ideal for him, is the 1200m too short and will he be fully wound up for this but he will still be hard to hold out.

Tudor tends to mix his form a bit but he has performed well here at Moonee Valley (3:1-1-0) albeit in much weaker company. This is his toughest test to date and I wonder if he's up to it because his only four starts at stakes level have all been in Listed races and he hasn't run a place in any of them.

Hard Stride has four seconds from four starts here but he's never run a place in three second-up attempts and he's only missed a place six times in his 20 start career so that is worrying. On the plus side he hasn't missed a place in his last nine runs stretching back to May last year. That purple patch included a two length victory over multiple G1 winner Moment of Change in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes at Caulfield last Spring. Ultra consistent but tends to space his wins.

It Is Written did win last start but that was only his second victory from his last 18 starts over a 16 month period. He did run third in this race last year and his overall record here is pretty good (17:6-2-3) but I am prepared to risk him here.

If you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics Mourinho has a great record here with four wins and three placings from 10 starts. He's never won below 1500m but his last two first up runs have resulted in a win here (over 1500m at 20/1) and a second at Flemington (over 1400m at 100/1). Smokin' Joey won the G1 Goodwood (below) over this distance last year and he ran second here at his only start on the track but that was more than three years ago.

Locky's Selections

1 Dissident
5 Hard Stride
9 Tudor
3 Mourinho

Other bets

Arena Rock (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 2) has put on a show winning at her last two outings and I'm tipping an encore performance here. Follow the in form diva. Opened $3.70.

Role Model (Randwick Race 5 No. 1) could show her rivals a good example of what a horse can do when she resumes tomorrow from a long break. If she's on her best behaviour I think this mob will learn a lot from her. Races very well fresh. Opened $6.00.

Puccini (Trentham (NZ) Race 7 No. 3) will be there when the fat lady is singing because he consistently performs well at the 1600m and at G1 level. Won last year's G1 NZ Derby (below) beating subsequent G1 Australian Oaks winner and G1 Caulfield Cup runner-up Rising Romance. Have a "tenor" each-way. Opened $8.00.

I'm steering away from Brisbane because the track is likely to be a bog after being inundated with more than 75mm of rain since Thursday evening but Missy Longstocking (Doomben Race 7 No. 1) should hose this lot. Opened $3.30.

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Emirates Stakes Day preview

The G1 Grand Slam is now no longer a possibility after Thunder Lady just missed getting us the coin yesterday in the G1 VRC Oaks but you can't win 'em all so it's back to the drawing board for one last crack tomorrow on what looks the toughest day so far.

I'll be focusing on the G1 Darley Classic because it shapes as the race of the day (if not the Spring) and the G1 Emirates Stakes looks a wide open affair. Those races are backed up by an impressive support card of four more Black Type races.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Michael Rodd has only had ten rides over the Flemington Carnival but has still managed to bag a winner on each of the three days so far - Bonaria, Hijack Hussy and Allelu. He also found time out in between to travel to Ballarat on Monday for one win from one ride.

He has four rides at Flemington tomorrow - Shining Brooke (Race 1 No. 14), Lazyaxl (Race 4 No. 14), Zonza (Race 8 No. 6) and Sweet As Bro (Race 9 No. 8).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day with the chance of a late shower. ***

Darley Classic (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee: Since this race went to G1 status in 2007 five of the seven winners had their last start at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate weekend, returned $7 or less, were 5-y-o or older and were last start winners.

"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead without too much trouble I would think. Moment Of Change to be handy so too Temple Of Boom and Driefontein. Lankan Rupee, Slade Power and Terravista will be up there too. The rest get back to midfield or worse.

Chautaqua is the find of the Spring Carnival. Two starts - both here at Flemington - for two explosive straight track wins by a combined margin of six and a half lengths. He ran slick time on both occasions (sub 1.09) and annihilated handy types in Temple Of Boom and Bounding. He steps up to G1 w-f-a for the first time so this is his stiffest test to date but he looks a future topliner.

Lankan Rupee was ridden aggressively last time out (below) and had to burn the candle at both ends so his effort to hang on and win was enormous. Sure there were excuses for many of the beaten brigade but take nothing away from this bloke. Back to Flemington is a big plus because he clearly isn't at his best at Moonee Valley. A four-time G1 winner including a two and a half length demolition job in the Newmarket Handicap with 56.5kg over this course and distance in March. 

Terravista was unlucky behind Lankan Rupee (above)  because he was held up at a crucial stage before savaging the line and he probably would have won in another two hops. Trainer Joe Pride has been quite bullish about this horse for some time and hoop Hugh Bowman is fresh off his win in the G1 VRC Oaks but he is an unknown quantity down the straight. Seven of his eight wins have been first or second-up but his form deeper into a prep (4:1-1-0) doesn't read as well.

Buffering sat up on the hot speed in the same race as Lankan Rupee and Terravista and he was only beaten half a length and battled away well to the line. He got a soft lead when he won this race last year (below) and he could get one again tomorrow. He's an old warrior who gives his all every time he goes around and is a must for exotics. $14 is quite frankly a ridiculous price.

Slade Power is the unknown quantity. He was unbeaten in three runs last prep including two victories at the highest level in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes and G1 July Cup. He's a winner of 10 of his 19 starts including nine at this distance and being from the UK the straight course holds no fears for him. He is a bit of a barrier rogue so it all depends on how he behaves but he is certainly good enough to win this if he has settled in OK and handles our track conditions.

Such is the quality of the field that the rest are $21+.

If you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics then going by the G1 Manikato Stakes formline Famous Seamus has to be in the mix given his slashing run from last on the turn to finish third. His only run here at Flemington was two years ago during Cup Week when he finished 13 of 20 beaten six and a half lengths by Unpretentious in the Listed MSS Security Sprint. Rebel Dane was another who had genuine excuses due to traffic problems and yet was only a quarter of a length away at the finish. Two starts here for no placings. Platelet finished last of twelve but was less than two lengths off the winner after a wide run and she is two from two at the Flemington 1200m. Temple of Boom sat three deep without cover and was beaten half a length and his Flemington "straight six" record is pretty good too (11:2-3-1).

What a fantastic race!

Locky's Selections

2 Lankan Rupee
10 Chautaqua
1 Buffering
13 Platelet

Other bets

Cadillac Mountain (Flemington Race 2 No. 14) was tipped on Oaks Day but Peter Moody scartched him to save him for this so I'll stay solid. He has found a good race here third-up after two solid efforts this time in over unsuitable distances. He wasn't beaten far on either occasion and there were excuses. Third run in his first campaign he won over 2000m and last preparation they saw fit to take on Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas and G1 Australian Derby and he wasn't disgraced despite not appreciating the wet tracks. $5 was bet.

Black Jet (Flemington Race 3 No. 14) has started four times at 1600m-1660m and has three wins and a third and he did win third-up last prep. He got run off his legs early last start at Moonee Valley but was doing his best work late and the step up to the mile and the big track at Flemington appeal because he'll get plenty of time to warm up for a big sprint finish. $12.

Rhythm To Spare (Flemington Race 7 No. 15) was Good in the G1 Toorak Handicap (below) where he flashed home from near last to finish fifth beaten just over a length. He should have finished closer because he ran into a bit of traffic in the home straight. Trainer Mike Moroney deserves a change of luck after tragically losing Araldo after the G1 Melbourne Cup and ten of the last fourteen winners of this race returned double figure odds. Opened at $16.

Amanpour (Flemington Race 8 No. 13) was narrowly beaten here on Cup Day and she has obviously come through the run OK because the stable has elected to back-up here. It's the same path followed by 2010 winner Well Rounded. She's a winner up to 1900m whereas many of these are on trial at a trip beyond a mile. I can happily play at the $7.50 that is on offer.

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Oaks preview

Some good winners tipped again to follow on from Saturday with G1 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist selected on top ($8.60/$3.10). I also had the Cup quinella ($87.50) among my top four selections with Red Cadeaux finishing second.

Unfortunately it was a sad end to the day but I'm here to give tips not a sermon. I'll leave that to the tree hugging, granola eating, cardigan wearing brigade.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

James McDonald was in good touch yesterday with two winners and a narrow second on Spy Decoder.

His best rides at Flemington tomorrow appear to be Postnthyme (Race 1 No. 10), Aerobar (Race 3 No. 7) and Atmospherical (Race 7 No. 15).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

VRC Oaks (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Thunder Lady: 14 of the last 19 winners came via the G2 Wakeful Stakes. Eight completed the double including five in the last 10 years. Only four winners in the last 30 years have returned more than $7.50 and none since 2002.

"The Speed Map" says - I think the stablemates Fontein Ruby and Lumosty will lead but I think they are both a query at the 2400m so I don't think they'll be out to break any land speed records. Imperial Lass and Yesterjoy should be handy too. Go Indy Go, Crafty and Thunder Lady drift back and perhaps Abduction will be ridden a bit more quietly in an attempt to see out the journey.

Lumosty was impressive winning the G2 Fillies Classic on Cox Plate Day but now jumps straight from 1600m to 2500m and she has to be suspect at the staying trip. Her sire Fastnet Rock was a multiple G1 winning sprinter and her dam never won beyond 1400m. Having said that it's hard to knock them when they are in form. She just missed the in-form Afleet Esprit fresh and then bolted in at the provincials. Forgive the G1 Thousand Guineas run as it was a funny race tempo wise.

Go Indy Go hasn't won since claiming the G1 Champagne Stakes (below) but she has been racing like a stayer this time in. Her last three starts have seen her get back and attack the line and she looked good against the boys in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day. Her mother Elegant Eagle is a daughter of Zabeel and a full sister to Golden Eagle who is the mother of G1 Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed so the 2400m shouldn't be a problem.

Crafty just keeps getting better as the distances get longer. She ran home strongly behind stablemate Fontein Ruby in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes and again in the G3 Caulfield Classic where they took on the boys and beat them. Her breeding gives every indication she will run out a strong 2400m because her mother Spirited Dancer is a half sister to Peinture Bleue who threw G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Peintre Celbre.

Set Square is an exciting prospect. She made her debut just seven weeks ago when finishing third in a Maiden on a Monday meeting at Donald. Two starts and two wins later she is one of the top fancies in an Oaks. I do wonder if she is seasoned enough for a race like this so early in her career but her win on Caulfield Cup Day in the Listed Ethereal Stakes was dominant.

Thunder Lady seems timed to the minute for this much like her stablemate Kirramosa who won this race last year off a similar prep. She goes in at her sixth run this campaign and has finished top five at all five runs. She won the G2 Wakeful Stakes on Saturday going away and was only three and a half lengths of Hampton Court in the Listed Dulcify Quality at Randwick on Epsom Day. He went on to claim the G1 Spring Champion Stakes a week later.

The rest are double figure odds but if you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics then Yesterjoy has the pedigree to figure here given she is a daughter of Tuesday Joy. That mare was a four time G1 winner including one over the 2400m of the BMW and her dam Joie Denise won a G1 Queensland Oaks. Trainer Clarry Conners has won this race three times and jockey Jimmy Cassidy a staggering five. Game of Fame was only three and a half lengths off Preferment and Nozomi in the Listed Geelong Classic and that duo ran first and third in last Saturday's G1 Victoria Derby. Golconda was strong at the end of the G2 Wakeful Stakes and wasn't far away from Thunder Lady. Fontein Ruby was disappointing in the same race but she does meet all her rivals from Saturday better at the weights here and the stable is in good form. I'm risking Abduction.

Go wide because a roughie usually runs into the trifecta.


Locky's Selections

5 Thunder Lady
3 Crafty
9 Game Of Fame
2 Go Indy Go

Other bets

Cadillac Mountain (Flemington Race 2 No. 10) has found a good race here third-up after two solid efforts this time in over unsuitable distances. He wasn't beaten far on either occasion and there were excuses. Third run in his first campaign he won over 2000m and last preparation they saw fit to take on Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas and G1 Australian Derby and he wasn't disgraced despite not appreciating the wet tracks. $4.60.

Cradle Me (Flemington Race 6 No. 13) is worth a peanut each-way at double figure odds. She's a winner of three from five second-up and her first-up run was full of merit when she was in the wrong part of the track. In her last six runs she has not missed a top two finish including two wins and a second from three goes at 1100m. $10.

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Melbourne Cup preview

Some good winners tipped on Saturday with Bonaria ($33.50/$8.10) claiming the G1 Myer Stakes and Preferment ($8.50/$2.20) winning the G1 Victoria Derby. I also had the Derby quinella ($32.30) and the G1 Mackinnon quinella ($22.40) among my top four selections and just missed the Mackinnon trifecta with Spillway finishing fourth.

At least I am finding some form at the right time.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Damien Oliver had a good day on Saturday with two winners and four placegetters from eight rides. He's now won the G1 Victoria Derby and the G1 Mackinnon Satkes five times and he's won the G1 Melbourne Cup and the G1 Oaks three times apiece. I think it's fair to say he thrives here during the Spring Carnival.

Tomorrow at Flemington he has several good chances including Law (Race 5 No. 1), Fitna (Race 6 No. 13), Mutual Regard (Race 7 No. 11) and Jazz Song (Race 9 No. 18).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the small possibility of a shower. ***

Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current market

*** Sea Moon is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Protectionist: 29 of the last 30 winners carried 56.5kg or less. Only one winner in the last 25 years has paid more than $21. 12 of the last 15 winners had finished top four at their previous start. The last 20 winners had their previous start in Australia. The race has only been won by a mare seven times in the last 50 years - and three of those were Makybe Diva.

"The Speed Map" says - I have given up trying to guess what they are going to do in this race. Every year I have a speed map worked out and fifty metres after the start it has gone out the window.

Protectionist for me here. He profiles well being an international who has had a prior run in this country. He's not badly weighted and he has a 3000m win in Europe on severely affected ground so he should stay the trip. Jockey Ryan Moore is on a high after claiming the G1 Cox Plate aboard Adelaide and his fast closing fourth under 59kg in the G2 Herbert Power caught the eye.

Admire Ratki the next best. He was breathtaking in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) and the stable has always said he would be better suited at 3200m than 2400m. He's a winner up to 3400m in Japan and he handles firm tracks. Only four horses have carried 58.5kg or more to win in the last 60 years but having said that the spread in the weights these days isn't as big.

Red Cadeaux seems to thrive in Australia. This will be his fourth start in the race and he has finished second twice before including an agonising photo finish loss to Dunaden (below) in 2011. He's also been placed in Japan's big G1 two mile race the Tenno Sho as well as the G1 Dubai World Cup and he's won a G1 Hong Kong Vase. He's a seasoned traveller and I think he represents great value for exotics at $21+.

Mutual Regard has had five runs at this distance for two wins and two seconds and his last start win in the Ebor Handicap was impressive. That race did produce 2007 Cup placegetter Purple Moon. In form hoop Damien Oliver to ride.

That's my Top Four but I could make a case for quite a few more. Lucia Valentina was the best closer outside Admire Ratki in the G1 Caulfield Cup. Signoff was impressive on the weekend in claiming the G3 Lexus and has no weight. Fawkner has had a similar preparation to last year's winner Fiorente and he was brave in the G1 Cox Plate when he had to cart the rest of the field up to The Cleaner. Who Shot Thebarman and Araldo look like they will stay all day. I think Junoob will be better suited by the big track at Flemington and G1 Sydney Cup placegetter Opinion will run out a strong 3200m. As always a tough race.


Locky's Selections

5 Protectionist
1 Admire Ratki
4 Red Cadeaux
11 Mutual Regard

Other bets

Khutulun (Flemington Race 2 No. 7) has won four from nine with two placings and you could make an argument she should have won two starts back as well when she suffered bad luck in running. Her first five career runs obviously showed the stable enough to warrant a crack at last season's G1 Queensland Oaks and apart from that blemish all her other runs have been good. Opened $16 but that has disappeared. Now $9.

Fitna (Flemington Race 6 No. 13) demolished an average field last start but did it pretty easily. Prior to that she chased home G1 Victoria Derby aspirant Magicool at Seymour. The step up to 1400m looks ideal because she is a daughter of G1 winning miler Carry On Cutie. $10.

Stipulate (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) was brilliant first-up in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap before solid runs in the G1 Underwood Stakes (two and a half lengths off Foreteller and Happy Trails) and the G1 Turnbull Stakes (three and a half length fifth to Lucia Valentina). He didn't see a lot of daylight in the G1 Caulfield Cup so I'm overlooking that run. $8.

Iconic (Flemington Race 9 No. 4) wasn't far away in that busy finish in the G1 Manikato Stakes two weeks ago. At his previous appearance he was on the heels of Rubick, Platelet and Overreach in the G2 Schillaci Stakes. His only appearance here at Flemington was during this week last year when he finished second in a race down the straight. Well weighted and well backed in early markets. $8.

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VRC Derby Day preview

Favourite backers beware - this has been a tough day to find winners in recent years with bolters getting up like Appearance ($53), Smokin' Joey ($46), Fiveandahalfstar ($21) and Fontelina twice at $10+.

In fact over the last two years there have been 18 races run and only three favourites have saluted the judge. Eleven of the winners paid $7 or more with eight of those returning double figure odds.

So let's hope I find us some winners because the returns could be massive.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Hard to go past Joao Moreira. Since claiming a Black Type treble at Randwick four weeks ago he has ridden 10 winners from just five meetings in Hong Kong including a quaddie, a treble and a double.

Tomorrow at Flemington he has several good chances including Azkadelia (Race 1 No. 15), Brazen Beau (Race 4 No. 2), Signoff (Race 5 No. 9), He's Your Man (Race 6 No. 8) and Atmosphere (Race 7 No. 11).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a strong chance of rain in the morning and showers in the afternoon with the possibility of hail. ***

Victoria Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Atmosphere : Only one favourite has won in the last nine years whereas five have paid double figure odds. All had finished top three at their last start. Trainer Trent Busuttin won this race three years ago with Sangster.

"The Speed Map" says - Hard to say. With the three-year-olds stepping up to 2500m for the first time previous racing patterns may not be much of a guide.

Hampton Court is a worthy favourite after chasing down First Seal and Sweynesse last time in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (below). Sweynesse has since run a bottler in the G1 Cox Plate last week and the way this bloke blew past him the previous run gives every indication he will relish the 2500m, especially given the suicidal tempo of the aforementioned contest.

Preferment is another who looks like he will eat a mile and a half. He looked like a beaten horse in the Listed Geelong Classic before rallying late to just miss. He's a son of Zabeel so that's also a plus in a staying feature. He may still be a maiden but he is only now getting to a distance that suits. Blinkers go on so that's a good sign it's D-Day for this bloke and his jockey has won this race four times previously.

Moonovermanhattan was solid in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley last weekend and he has the advantage of being an on-pace runner whereas most of his main dangers here will be coming from the second half of the field you would think. Yet another that looks as if he will run out a strong 2500m.

Atmosphere has a lot of upside. Trainer has won this race before. Jockey is arguably the best on the planet. Drawn well to get a good run. Every time they have raised the bar he has responded. Keeps getting better as the distances get further. Can he win a Derby as a maiden at just his fifth career start?

Bondeiger was a bit unlucky last start after copping a bump that hampered him badly near the turn but he still picked himself up and finished the race off well. From the inside gate he's going to get all the favours here and his closing sectionals last weekend were those of a horse who will have no problems with the journey.

Best of the rest is probably Nozomi who beat Preferment at Geelong and Gouldian who beat the same horse last start although he does go straight from 1600m to 2500m which is a concern.

Locky's Selections

13 Preferment
1 Hampton Court
9 Bondeiger
11 Atmosphere

Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Side Glance is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Foreteller, Happy Trails or Criterion : Since the turn of the century nine of the 14 winners of this race came via the G1 Cox Plate and eight of them were unplaced. Only one favourite has won since 2006.

"The Speed Map" says - Brambles, Mourinho and Amralah go forward. Star Rolling and Rising Romance can be handy too. Happy Trails, Foreteller, Hawkspur, Moriarty, Spillway and Criterion get back. Not sure what they do with He's Your Man???

He's Your Man is the fresh horse on the scene having not started since his triumph in the G1 Epsom Handicap (below). He got in on the minimum weight that day in a handicap so the question is can he make the step up to weight-for-age but that race looks strong with Hooked (3rd), Pheidon (6th) and Spy Decoder (12th) all subsequent winners.

Criterion has never missed a top two finish at 2000m from four attempts and his Flemington record is sound with a fourth here on this day last year in the G1 Victoria Derby. He also ran second to Shamus Award in the G1 Australian Guineas at this track. He didn't seem to handle Moonee Valley last Saturday so his effort to finish seventh beaten just a length and a half was admirable. Once he did get balanced he savaged the line and this assignment does look much easier.

Rising Romance looked home in the G1 Caulfield Cup (below) before being nabbed by Admire Ratki on the line. I like the fact that they never intended to run in a Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup and have instead targeted this race. She didn't have a gutbuster last week like a few of these others and the freshen-up to 2000m back from the 2400m means she'll be strong at the end. Only two mares have won this race in the last 23 years - concern?

Happy Trails was close up in a busy finish in last week's G1 Cox Plate (below) where the first six over the line finished within three quarters of a length of each other. Last Spring he won the G1 Turnbull Stakes at this track and distance. He always seems to find trouble in his races due to his racing pattern but he is undeniably talented as shown by his two G1 wins and a close second in last year's G1 Cox Plate and this year's G1 Underwood Stakes.

The rest are $11+ but the best of them appear to be Foreteller who was also good in last week's G1 Cox Plate (above) when fifth beaten just over half a length after copping a bump at the top of the straight. His stablemates Hawkspur and Moriarty ran well in the G1 Caulfield Cup as did Brambles. Spillway can improve back to 2000m and the last two runs of Star Rolling weren't bad and he is two from three at this track and distance. Amralah the knockout horse?

Locky's Selections

15 Rising Romance
8 He's Your Man
2 Happy Trails
11 Spillway

Other bets

Our Vespa (Flemington Race 1 No. 1) looked a bit stiff in the G3 Guineas Prelude when he nearly fell. It's amazing he finished the race at all and yet he still had the cheek to run past a few in the straight. Prior to that he was five from seven and had never missed a drum. $9.

Woodbine (Flemington Race 3 No. 10) was pretty good in the G1 Epsom Handicap given he sat up on a hot speed and only got tired late. He was beaten just over three lengths on that occasion and back to the 1400m in an easier race with the minimum weight he looks a worthy betting proposition. $7.50.

Bonaria (Flemington Race 8 No. 6) is a Flemington mile specialist with three wins from four attempts. There were genuine excuses last time out and earlier this prep she was on the heels of Commanding Jewel and Dear Demi. W-f-a suits as she will be meeting many of these on much better terms than she has been in the handicaps. $26.

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