Welcome back and let me just begin by saying Happy New Year and have a great Australia Day long weekend!
As usual at this time of year we have the G1 Thorndon Mile (Trentham - NZ), the G2 Australia Stakes (Moonee Valley) and the running of the Australia Day Cup (Randwick) tomorrow followed-up by the Blue Diamond Previews at Sandown on Monday.
Sandwiched in between those is the Karaka Millions meeting in New Zealand with several Aussie based jockeys heading to Ellerslie on Sunday including Tommy Berry, Hugh Bowman, Damian Browne, Jason Collett and James McDonald.
The good horses are starting to reappear too with G1 winners Dissident and Moment of Change resuming this week while four others - Shooting To Win, Hallowed Crown, Hampton Court and Diamond Drille - will have exhibition gallops at Randwick tomorrow.
As usual at this time of year we have the G1 Thorndon Mile (Trentham - NZ), the G2 Australia Stakes (Moonee Valley) and the running of the Australia Day Cup (Randwick) tomorrow followed-up by the Blue Diamond Previews at Sandown on Monday.
Sandwiched in between those is the Karaka Millions meeting in New Zealand with several Aussie based jockeys heading to Ellerslie on Sunday including Tommy Berry, Hugh Bowman, Damian Browne, Jason Collett and James McDonald.
The good horses are starting to reappear too with G1 winners Dissident and Moment of Change resuming this week while four others - Shooting To Win, Hallowed Crown, Hampton Court and Diamond Drille - will have exhibition gallops at Randwick tomorrow.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Hugh Bowman has had a big fortnight with trebles at Gosford and Canterbury plus a Saturday Randwick double. All-up he has ridden 10 winners and nine placegetters from his last 27 rides. (Win 37% / Place 70%)
He has a full book at at Randwick tomorrow but his best chances on paper look to be Sebring Sun (Race 1 No. 2), Choice We Had (Race 2 No. 5), Role Model (Race 5 No. 1), That's A Good Idea (Race 7 No. 5) and Harrier Jet (Race 8 No. 11).
Moonee Valley
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***
Australia Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** Richie's Vibe is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Dissident: This race has been won by some quality horses since its inception in 1989 including Black Caviar (twice), El Segundo, All Our Mob, Hareeba and Schillaci. However I don't know how much we can read into that given the constant changing nature of this race which has been run at different times of the year, with different grades and names and one year even a different venue.
"The Speed Map" says - A lot of pace here. Dissident, It Is Written, Hard Stride and Tudor should all be handy. Audino did go back last start but prior to that he raced up near the lead in his races and from the wide gate he may have to press forward. Mourinho does like to be in the first half of the field too but this lot may be a bit too zippy for him. Smokin' Joey and Blackie to be in the second half of the field.
Dissident is the class horse of the race with three G1 victories already under his belt including the Makybe Diva Stakes last Spring where he took care of Fawkner (below). He's had a couple of jump-outs in readiness for this, similar to last prep when he won the G1 Memsie Stakes first-up. There are queries such as is Moonee Valley ideal for him, is the 1200m too short and will he be fully wound up for this but he will still be hard to hold out.
Tudor tends to mix his form a bit but he has performed well here at Moonee Valley (3:1-1-0) albeit in much weaker company. This is his toughest test to date and I wonder if he's up to it because his only four starts at stakes level have all been in Listed races and he hasn't run a place in any of them.
"The Speed Map" says - A lot of pace here. Dissident, It Is Written, Hard Stride and Tudor should all be handy. Audino did go back last start but prior to that he raced up near the lead in his races and from the wide gate he may have to press forward. Mourinho does like to be in the first half of the field too but this lot may be a bit too zippy for him. Smokin' Joey and Blackie to be in the second half of the field.
Dissident is the class horse of the race with three G1 victories already under his belt including the Makybe Diva Stakes last Spring where he took care of Fawkner (below). He's had a couple of jump-outs in readiness for this, similar to last prep when he won the G1 Memsie Stakes first-up. There are queries such as is Moonee Valley ideal for him, is the 1200m too short and will he be fully wound up for this but he will still be hard to hold out.
Tudor tends to mix his form a bit but he has performed well here at Moonee Valley (3:1-1-0) albeit in much weaker company. This is his toughest test to date and I wonder if he's up to it because his only four starts at stakes level have all been in Listed races and he hasn't run a place in any of them.
Hard Stride has four seconds from four starts here but he's never run a place in three second-up attempts and he's only missed a place six times in his 20 start career so that is worrying. On the plus side he hasn't missed a place in his last nine runs stretching back to May last year. That purple patch included a two length victory over multiple G1 winner Moment of Change in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes at Caulfield last Spring. Ultra consistent but tends to space his wins.
It Is Written did win last start but that was only his second victory from his last 18 starts over a 16 month period. He did run third in this race last year and his overall record here is pretty good (17:6-2-3) but I am prepared to risk him here.
If you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics Mourinho has a great record here with four wins and three placings from 10 starts. He's never won below 1500m but his last two first up runs have resulted in a win here (over 1500m at 20/1) and a second at Flemington (over 1400m at 100/1). Smokin' Joey won the G1 Goodwood (below) over this distance last year and he ran second here at his only start on the track but that was more than three years ago.
Locky's SelectionsIf you're looking for roughies to throw in your exotics Mourinho has a great record here with four wins and three placings from 10 starts. He's never won below 1500m but his last two first up runs have resulted in a win here (over 1500m at 20/1) and a second at Flemington (over 1400m at 100/1). Smokin' Joey won the G1 Goodwood (below) over this distance last year and he ran second here at his only start on the track but that was more than three years ago.
1 Dissident
5 Hard Stride
9 Tudor
3 Mourinho
5 Hard Stride
9 Tudor
3 Mourinho
Other bets
Arena Rock (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 2) has put on a show winning at her last two outings and I'm tipping an encore performance here. Follow the in form diva. Opened $3.70.
Role Model (Randwick Race 5 No. 1) could show her rivals a good example of what a horse can do when she resumes tomorrow from a long break. If she's on her best behaviour I think this mob will learn a lot from her. Races very well fresh. Opened $6.00.
Puccini (Trentham (NZ) Race 7 No. 3) will be there when the fat lady is singing because he consistently performs well at the 1600m and at G1 level. Won last year's G1 NZ Derby (below) beating subsequent G1 Australian Oaks winner and G1 Caulfield Cup runner-up Rising Romance. Have a "tenor" each-way. Opened $8.00.
Role Model (Randwick Race 5 No. 1) could show her rivals a good example of what a horse can do when she resumes tomorrow from a long break. If she's on her best behaviour I think this mob will learn a lot from her. Races very well fresh. Opened $6.00.
I'm steering away from Brisbane because the track is likely to be a bog after being inundated with more than 75mm of rain since Thursday evening but Missy Longstocking (Doomben Race 7 No. 1) should hose this lot. Opened $3.30.
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