Caulfield Guineas preview

Well the AFL and NRL seasons have finally been put to bed and we can focus solely on the Spring Carnival now. About time too because we're only a week out from the G1 Caulfield Cup, a fortnight away from the G1 Cox Plate and the Flemington Carnival begins in three weeks with G1 VRC Derby Day.

Tomorrow is cracker too with four G1's - the Caulfield Guineas, the Thousand Guineas, the Caulfield Stakes and the Toorak Handicap. There are several good support races too with all nine events on the program carrying Black Type status including the G2 Schillaci Stakes for the sprinters and the G2 Herbert Power Stakes for the Caulfield Cup hopefuls.

Let's hope the good form continues because last week two of the Best Bets saluted in Brazen Beau and Famous Seamus while Maastricht (2nd) just missed and we nearly had the Doncaster trifecta with the top four selections finishing first, second and a narrow fourth (He's Your Man, Royal Descent & Ninth Legion).

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Gai Waterhouse and Tommy Berry are both in good touch. Tommy has ridden 11 winners in the last 16 days including six for Gai. They've already won three feature races this Spring with Sweet Idea (Missile Stakes), Greatwood (Premiers Cup) and Almalad (Stutt Stakes). Gai herself has had 10 winners since the start of the month including a two state treble last weekend - Vancouver, Hampton Court (Randwick) and Forever Loved (Flemington).

They combine at Caulfield tomorrow for Helford River (Race 1 No. 8), Overreach (Race 4 No. 4) and Almalad (Race 9 No. 2).

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy morning clearing to a sunny afternoon. ***

Caulfield Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** Our Vespa is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Looks Like The Cat : 16 of the last 20 winners paid $9 or less. Seven of the last 11 came via the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude and finished top four. Nine of the last 13 favourites have been beaten.

"The Speed Map" says - Almalad and Rich Enuff to go forward from their wide barriers. Looks Like The Cat and Shooting To Win settle behind them and Kumaon can be closer tomorrow from barrier two. Chivalry to drift back.

Rich Enuff is a short priced favourite and deservedly so after an unbeaten three run sequence this campaign where he has been quite simply dominant. Michael Rodd has just two rides tomorrow after getting the sack from Happy Trails so he'll be fired up to prove the knockers wrong you would think.

Looks Like The Cat is still doing a few things wrong in his races and he'll need to get that out of his system because you need to do everything right to win a race like this. He's obviously got potential because some pundits are talking about a potential G1 Cox Plate start if he wins here tomorrow.

Shooting To Win thrashed his rivals last start in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes to follow up on his fast closing third in the G1 Golden Rose at his previous start (below). The form out of that race looks pretty strong now because several of the horses that finished behind him on that day (Almalad, Nostradamus, Press Report, Bring Me The Maid, Kumaon & Bachman) have since run very well in Black Type races.

Almalad has to overcome a horror draw but he is a G1 winner at 1600m already having claimed the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm in June. His run to claim the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes was full of merit but I just question whether that is as strong a race as the G3 Guineas Prelude or the G1 Golden Rose and G2 Stan Fox Stakes.

The first two runs by Chivalry this prep were good and I'm prepared to overlook last start as he was held up at a vital stage. He'll be running on but he's on a Derby trail and he might already be looking for further. Zebulon was also unlucky in the same race and his previous form is good. Merion took care of both those horses at his last start and his first-up effort behind Rich Enuff (his only defeat to date) was sound. Kumaoan ran on well from the tail of the field at his last start and has two goes at the mile for thirds in the G1 Champagne Stakes and G2 Bill Stutt Stakes. He can be handier tomorrow from the inside draw and stepping up to 1600m. Moonovermanhattan was solid in the same race.

Locky's Selections

3 Rich Enuff
7 Looks Like The Cat
4 Shooting To Win
9 Merion

Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Happy Trails : 17 of the last 20 winners returned single figure odds. Five of the last six winners came via the G1 Underwood Stakes. Damien Oliver has won this race four times.

"The Speed Map" says - Crackerjack King to lead as he did last start especially now he has drawn out wide. Side Glance could be up there too. Fawkner, Criterion and Dissident to be handy. So too Dear Demi from the good gate. Stablemates Sacred Falls and Foreteller in the second half of the field.

Dissident is hard to knock. His three runs this prep have all been at G1 level and he has won two and been narrowly beaten in the other when giving the winner 6kg. If there is a concern it is that his only attempt at 2000m was average (a six length sixth to Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas back in April) and his form when he gets deep into a preparation reads badly. Is he just a good fresh sprinter-miler? The jury is still out.

Fawkner looked every bit as good as Dissident in the above race and he was first-up so I expect him to take plenty of improvement from that run. Second-up record looks good on paper (5:3-1-0) but it's worth noting his last second-up effort was a two and a half length fifth in last year's G1 George Main Stakes. He's no stranger to the track having claimed last year's G1 Caulfield Cup here 51 weeks ago (below) and I think he'll be in the finish despite the fact that I think his Grand Final is still two weeks away at Moonee Valley.

Sacred Falls won the G1 George Main Stakes last start and that form is looking good now with Royal Descent (2nd) subsequently a narrow second in the G1 Epsom Handicap and Lucia Valentina (6th) victorious in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. He's had two starts at this distance for two G1 seconds behind It's A Dundeel, the most recent a fighting effort in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in April (below). He's a three time G1 winner already and looks right on target for the G1 Cox Plate in a fortnight. Zac Purton flies in from Hong Kong to take the ride.

Foreteller looks to be over the odds for mine. He's a last start winner of the G1 Underwood Stakes and the form from that race has been franked with Lidari (4th) running a slashing second in last weekend's G1 Turnbull Stakes. That was his third win here at The Heath following previous victories in the G2 St George Stakes and G3 Coongy. He also ran second in this race last year to Atlantic Jewel. He can struggle to run on off a hot speed so it will all come down to how hard they go in front.

Happy Trails was on the heels of Foreteller in the G1 Underwood Stakes and he is backing up here after having no luck in last Saturday's G1 Turnbull Stakes. Take that run out and his last three attempts at 2000m have resulted in a narrow second to Shamus Award in last year's G1 Cox Plate, victory in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last year and a third to Reliable Man and It's A Dundeel in the 2013 G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. I liked him last week and I like him again here especially now that we are back to w-f-a from set weights plus penalties. The last time Damian Oliver rode this bloke they won the 2012 G1 Emirates Stakes (below). 

Dear Demi was impressive winning the G2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley and I loved the way she attacked the line but that was her first win in 17 months and she is yet to win in open company. Criterion chased home Junoob last start and he's since won the G1 Metropolitan. Fourth-up last prep he strolled home in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. Crackerjack King is a winner of three from five at 2000m and I liked his effort last start in the G1 Underwood Stakes when he staved off everyone bar Foreteller and Happy Trails. Side Glance has only raced twice in this country but his record reads well with a win in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes and a sixth in the G1 Cox Plate.

Locky's Selections

1 Sacred Falls
4 Happy Trails
5 Foreteller
7 Crackerjack King

Other bets

Sistine Demon (Caulfield Race 3 No. 3) doesn't go so well first and second-up but he has a great record three runs and further into a prep (11:7-1-1). He's five from six at the 1400m including two victories here at Caulfield. Looks well weighted with just 2.5kg over the minimum. Opened $4.50.

Overreach (Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) has had two trials in preparation for this and won both by big margins. She hasn't been sighted since April last year but given her value as a broodmare I can't imagine she'd be here unless she was 100%. She's nominated for the G1 Manikato Stakes in a fortnight and the G1 Darley Classic two weeks later so they're setting the bar high but she is a G1 Golden Slipper winner (beating subsequent Black Type winners Sidestep, Sweet Idea and Guelph). Opened $4.00.

Bull Point (Caulfield Race 7 No. 6) was solid behind Trust In A Gust in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) and meets him two kilos better off here. He was the best of the run on horses so the step up to 1600m suits. The stable wins a lot of big mile races and rider Jimmy Cassidy has already claimed this race four times. Inside draw is a big plus. Opened $6.50.

Afleet Esprit (Caulfield Race 8 No. 3) just keeps winning and the bookies continue to allow us to get on. She's drawn to get the gun run here from the inside marble and meets most of her rivals better off at the weights than when she beat them in the G2 Tranquil Star two weeks ago. The stable is flying and Damien Oliver has won this race five times. Opened $6.00.

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Epsom Handicap / Turnbull Stakes Day preview

This is one of my favourite days of the racing year. 18 Black Type races spread over two states and more than $3.8M in prizemoney up for grabs. 

There are four Group 1's but I'll be focusing on the two $500K races in the Epsom Handicap (Randwick) and the Turnbull Stakes (Flemington).

There will still be plenty of other bets because with some good horses and races available I just know I won't be able to help myself.

The good news is the radar is pretty close at the moment because last week I tipped the First Four in Moir Stakes, two of the first three in the Rupert Clarke Stakes, the "Who's hot" segment steered you into Rob Heathcote (Buffering) and "The Scriptures" gave Trust In A Gust a wrap.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Hugh Bowman has ridden seven winners in the last three weeks from just 28 rides at a strike rate of 25%. This Spring he has already claimed feature race wins aboard Hallowed Crown, Winx, Terravista, Catkins and He's Your Man.

He has some quality mounts at Randwick tomorrow including Hallowed Crown (Race 4 No. 1), Royal Descent (Race 7 No. 2), Winx (Race 84 No. 1) and Bagman (Race 9 No. 2). 

Randwick

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Epsom Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Pheidon : 21 of the last 30 winners were 4-y-o's including nine of the last 11 and the last five in a row. Only four horses in the last 15 runnings have carried more than 54kg to win with the last being Racing To Win (57kg) in 2006. 12 of the last 18 winners drew a single digit barrier. Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times including six of the last 11.

"The Speed Map" says - Star Rolling is best when ridden forward and he'll want to take advantage of his good draw. Pheidon is in similar situation and being a Waterhouse trained horse you'd think Gai would want him near the lead. Hooked went straight to the front last start as did Laser Hawk and being drawn out they'll both probably press forward. Jetset Lad and Liberty's Choice can be handy too. Not sure where they go on Royal Descent from out there. Last two starts she's been ridden on pace but she went back and swooped when second in the G1 Doncaster back in April.

Royal Descent as just mentioned ran second at this course and distance in the G1 Doncaster Mile (below). The problem is she's making a habit of that. She hasn't won in her last 12 starts stretching back 17 months although she has registered six seconds in quality company. Secret Admirer (2011) is the only mare to have won this race in the last 30 years but she carried just 52.5kg. She is however the class horse of the race and that will take her a long way.

He's Your Man has not missed a place in six starts at distances up to 1800m since coming to Australia. He's dropping back from 2000m to 1600m but I believe it takes a good ten furlong horse to run out a strong Randwick mile so that is of no concern. The stable does make a habit of winning these big Sydney mile races too - think Sacred Falls, Boban, Rangirangdoo, Triple Honour, Hawkspur, Danleigh, Shoot Out.

Toydini has won just two races from his last 13 starts since claiming the G3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) at Randwick during the Autumn Carnival of 2013. Granted he has been competing at the highest level but he has to do that again tomorrow, with a good horses weight and he did look plain last time out when a well beaten eighth in the G1 George Main Stakes.

Boban is to racing what Marat Safin was to tennis. He has all the ability in the world but he is an absolute basket case. On his day he is capable of doing extraordinary things, just as he did when winning this very race (below) just 12 months ago. The problem is catching him on his day. He has to contend with a massive weight too. Only the mighty Super Impose has carried more to victory in the last 30 years (58.5kg in 1990 and 61kg in 1991).

Of the rest Laser Hawk is getting back to somewhere near his best and gets a four kilo swing on Royal Descent and he was only half a length behind her in the G1 George Main Stakes - a race which has produced 15 of the last 30 winners. Liberty's Choice is a lightly weighted 4-y-o on the way up and he chased home Rock Sturdy last start and he would have started close to favourite here so he has some hope. Ninth Legion comes through the same race and meets both horses better at the weights and he boasts form around Cluster and Bull Point who were competitive in last Sunday's G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Hooked fits the age/weight profile and comes off a win in the G3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle but he got a soft lead that day and sprinted home. I doubt he'll be able to do that tomorrow. Star Rolling was the subject of some early speculation with the bookies ($15 into $11). He won't know himself with just 53kg and with his good early speed, ability to race on the pace and an inside draw he will be in it for a long way.

Locky's Selections

4 Laser Hawk
2 Royal Descent
9 Ninth Legion
6 He's Your Man

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***

Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)

Current market

***  Sertorius and Crackerjack King are early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Hawkspur or The Offer : In the past 25 years only five horses have carried less than 55.5kg. Only four mares (Let's Elope, Sunline, Makybe Diva and Devil Moon) have saluted in that period. 13 of the last 20 favourites have been beaten. Since 2000 seven winners have paid between $9 - $26.

"The Speed Map" says - Gris Caro and Brambles handy from good draws. Green Moon sat second in the G1 Australian Cup here second-up last prep. Puissance De Lune will want to take advantage of barrier two. They have a long run to the first bend to sort themselves out.

Lucia Valentina announced her presence in this country last Autumn with a win in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill in April (below). She resumed from a spell four weeks ago and made the transition to open company with an impressive length and half win in the G2 Tramway defeating the likes of Tiger Tees and Toydini. Wasn't far away at w-f-a last start in the G1 George Main Stakes and she looks well placed here with just the 53.5kg. 

Puissance De Lune looks like a horse crying out for 2000m and he should get all the favours tomorrow from his inside barrier. He loves it here at Flemington with wins in the G2 Blamey Stakes and G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and placings at his other three attempts in the last two G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (behind the likes of Dissident and Foreteller) and this race last year when he hit the front too soon and was ambushed by Happy Trails. A live winning hope. 

Silent Achiever has just one win in Melbourne to her name and that was at her first attempt in the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley almost two years ago. She has not run a place in seven subsequent Melbourne runs. She'll have her admirers and on her Sydney Autumn Carnival form she's good enough to win but I can't step into her especially after her plain run last start.

Happy Trails won this race last year (below) before finishing a narrow second in the G1 Cox Plate and he showed he's back to his best with an unlucky second to Foreteller in the G1 Underwood Stakes a fortnight ago. In fact I think if you reversed the runs in transit Happy Trails wins the race. He's had exactly the same prep this year (Spring Stakes/Memsie Stakes/Underwood Stakes) and is travelling better so the extra 1.5kg shouldn't be a problem.

Stipulate gets into the field now that stablemate Crackerjack King has been scratched. His first-up win was super and as a result he was well tried in the G1 Underwood Stakes but couldn't really get into the race because of the muddling tempo and his racing pattern of getting back and running on. If he gets a good tempo tomorrow he could be a player.

Hawkspur was a desperately unlucky fifth in this race last year (see replay above) when beaten half a length off a similar prep. He gives every impression he's looking for the 2000m now and he's been scratched from a much more winnable race in Sydney to take on the big guns here. The stable is obviously confident and who can blame them because they are winning practically everything at the moment.

Of the rest Green Moon saves his best form for Flemington with wins in the G1 Melbourne Cup, G2 Blamey Stakes and this race two years ago plus he was also a narrow second to Fiorente in the G1 Australian Cup last March. First-up run was good off a slow tempo when he came from last to be only three lengths off the in-form Dissident. Super Cool ran well in the G1 Underwood, he's been getting closer every run this time in and he's finally getting to a trip that suits. The Offer is another in that category. He's on a Cups path so he has bigger fish to fry down the track but expect him to be finishing powerfully.

Locky's Selections

2 Happy Trails
4 Hawkspur
8 Puissance De Lune
1 Green Moon

Other bets

Brazen Beau (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) chased home Rich Enuff, Looks Like The Cat and Awesome Rock last start and gave them weight too. That trio subsequently ran the trifecta in the G3 Guineas Prelude. He showed ability during the Brisbane Winter Carnival claiming the G2 Champagne Classic before placing in the G2 Sires Produce and G1 J.J. Atkins.  I like the fact that he stays at the 1200m too whereas a couple of his rivals are dropping back from the 1400m. Opened $4.00.

Famous Seamus (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) is well placed here under the w-f-a scale and he caught the eye first-up when he flashed home from last to grab third behind the much hyped Terravista in the G2 The Shorts. That was a day you needed to be near the fence and on the pace due to track bias and he came from last and made his run down the inferior ground out wide. Stepping up from 1100m to 1200m can only help and he was a G1 winner during the Brisbane Winter Carnival (below). Opened $2.90.

Spillway (Randwick Race 9 No. 3) has strong form leading into this with good runs over unsuitable trips in the G2 Lawrence Stakes (1400m) and the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) where he finished on the heels of Dissident, Fawkner and Puissance De Lune. Forget his last start flop in the G3 Naturalism Stakes because he had nothing but bad luck in the run. The stable is training plenty of winners and his last win was here at Randwick in April when he spanked his rivals by two and a half lengths in the G3 JRA Plate (2000m) on All Aged Stakes Day. Opened $4.80.

Temple of Boom (Flemington Race 5 No. 5) is now an 8-y-o but he is racing in fine fettle. His win at Eagle Farm in the G2 Victory Stakes in April was his first win since claiming the G1 Galaxy two years prior but he followed that with three great runs - a fourth in the G1 BTC Cup and narrow seconds in the G1 Doomben 10,000 and G1 Stradbroke Handicap (below). He's won three races down the Flemington straight and placed four more times from 12 attempts and he meets Chautauqua 6kg better off for his last start defeat. Opened $4.20.

Maastricht (Flemington Race 6 No. 9) has been crunched in the betting ($5.50 to $3.00) following the news that the Peter Moody trained filly Thinking Of You will miss this race and head to Sydney for the G1 Flight Stakes. It's a shame because I think this girl could have beaten her anyway and we would have gotten a better price. She's unbeaten in two career starts (albeit in much weaker grade) but she has been impressive both times. The stable is in good nick and the jockey is leading the Victorian premiership after a great start to the season. Opened $5.50.

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Moir Stakes/Rupert Clarke preview

Well it's been three months but the blog returns after a layoff due to a lack of Group 1 racing and an extended trip to the USA to catch some NFL.

It's a great weekend of racing with Group 1's on Friday night (Moonee Valley) and Sunday (Caulfield) plus a Saturday meeting at Rosehill that features no fewer than six Black Type races.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

In the last three weeks Brisbane trainer Rob Heathcote has had 10 winners from 38 runners at a strike rate of 26.3%.

He has just one entrant tonight - Buffering (Moonee Valley Race 4 No. 1). He also has some good chances tomorrow at Doomben in Coworth Park (Race 1 No. 2) and Big Decision (Race 7 No. 1).

Moonee Valley

*** As of 8am this morning the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a cloudy evening. ***

Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee : There have been seven runnings of this race since it went from 1000m to 1200m and five favourites have won. Four of those paid $2 or less. Mick Price and Craig Newitt combined to win this race last year with Samaready.

"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead at his leisure with Lankan Rupee getting a lovely trail. Angelic Light either stalks him or goes to the one-one. Rebel Dane and Unpretentious to settle back in the field.

In racebook order because there's only five of them:

Buffering will probably have to work to cross Lankan Rupee because I can't see Craig Newitt giving him the lead too easily. He has a great fresh record (9:6-1-1) but his last two first-up runs have resulted in defeat. If he's given a cosy ride in front he may be able to kick away from them on the turn and hold on. I've just got a feeling though that he will need the run despite two impressive jump-out wins in preparation for this.

Lankan Rupee was beaten as an odss-on favourite first-up but if he was going to be vulnerable at any time this prep that was the day. He hadn't raced for nearly five months, 1000m is short of his best, he drew wide and got caught in a speed battle too. He was a sitting shot to be run down but he fought it out all the way to the line. He can atone here.

Rebel Dane split Lankan Rupee and Buffering in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at Randwick in April (below) and has been given seven weeks to freshen up for this after a sound first-up third when beaten less than half a length by Sweet Idea and Messene in the G2 Missile Stakes. His fresh record is good (5:3-1-1) and he was an unlucky one length fifth behind Buffering at this course and distance in last year's G1 Manikato Stakes. Capable on his day.

Unpretentious. Only go at this track and distance was a narrow, fast finishing third to Spirit of Boom and Fontelina in the G1 William Reid Stakes in March. A talented gelding but he faces some pretty stiff opposition here.

Angelic Light has arguably the best record here at the Moonee Valley 1200m with two wins and a second from just the three attempts. The worry is her worst run last time in was third-up when she was beaten three and a half lengths in a Listed race down the Flemington straight in March.

Locky's Selections

2 Lankan Rupee
1 Buffering
3 Rebel Dane
5 Angelic Light

Caulfield

*** As of 11am today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a warm, windy, sunny afternoon. ***

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Cluster or Trust In A Gust : Looking at the last eight runnings six winners have been 4-y-o's and six have carried 54kg or less. Six were male and seven paid single figure odds and six had placed at their last start.

"The Speed Map" says - They rarely go slow in 1400m G1 handicaps. Sweet Idea to lead Sistine Demon. I can't imagine A Time For Julia being too far away either given her good draw. Ditto Dissident. Trust In A Gust should be up there too and I expect Alma's Fury will look to go forward from the horror draw. Could be a swoopers race.

Sweet Idea is super consistent with four wins and two seconds from her last eight outings. Her two seconds were to Steps in Time in the G1 Coolmore Stakes and Dissident in the G1 Memsie Stakes and her two failures were on affected ground so it may pay to overlook them. She's been well tried in early markets.

Dissident has been fantastic in two runs back this campaign with back-to-back G1 victories in the Memsie Stakes (below) and the Makybe Diva Stakes. He'll have to break all sorts of records to win this however with the 58kg because the only winner in recent times to carry more was the great Testa Rossa (58.5kg). He was also a 4-y-o but had won the race the previous year as a 3-y-o. I'm not happy about the drop back from 1600m to 1400m either but he is too good to dismiss entirely.

Cluster is finally starting to live up to the promise he displayed as a young horse. Long time followers of this blog will know that I was a huge fan and it's only now that I've dropped off and he doesn't have to carry me that he's finally started winning. Typical. Three wins from his last four and the prospect of  a good tempo point to him being a strong chance.

Trust in a Gust is hard to knock. His last two preparations have yielded eight wins and three seconds from 13 starts. Another who has been the subject of some support in early betting but he meets Atlante 2.5kg worse off than the day he lost to him at Moonee Valley two starts back.

Speediness proved he is up to this level when he all but won the G1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill in March (below) when just nabbed by overseas raider Gordon Lord Byron. Second-up last preperation he was second beaten a length and a half by super mare Appearance in the G2 Apollo Stakes over this distance. Did enough first-up to show he's on track for a nice campaign but I would prefer to see him over a mile at this stage of his career.

A Time For Julia has appeared to have every chance at her two runs this time in but hasn't been able to get the chocolates. This is much harder too but she is honest and will put herself into the race from the good barrier. The drop to 52kg is a big help too. But she'll need it because she is leaving fillies and mares grade behind and taking on the big boys.

Sistine Demon had a great prep the last time he was in work with 11 starts for seven wins (including five on the trot) and two placings. His return was great in the G3 Bobbie Lewis Quality where he sat up on a hot speed down the Flemington straight and still managed to hang on for a three length fifth in an unsuitably short race after understandably running out of condition late. He's unbeaten in five goes at 1400m and two goes at this circuit. The concern is his missed a place in two of three second-up runs.

Double figures the rest of them but there are still other chances with Bull Point (not far away from Cluster last time), Atlante (first-up run was super) and Late Charge (unbeaten this time in). In fact you could probably make a case for all of them. But I have to pick a Top Four. So here goes.

Locky's Selections

7 Cluster
11 Bull Point
6 Atlante
1 Dissident

Other bets

Refer (Sandown Race 7 No. 10) was only four lengths behind Guelph in the G1 Flight Stakes last Spring (as a maiden!) and followed that with a two length third to Arabian Gold in the Listed Ethereal Stakes on Caulfield Cup Day. Broke her duck with an emphatic four and a half length first-up win at Geelong. Granted that was a maiden for fillies and mares but this doesn't look much harder. Opened at $4.00.

Mourinho (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 5) is a bit of a specialist here with with three wins from three goes at the 2040m and an overall track record of 9:4-2-0. His two runs this prep (both here) have been super and he gets a 2.5kg pull in the weights from The Cleaner who has to be suspect at the trip. Opened $5.50.

Looks Like The Cat (Caulfield Race 6 No. 8) was outstanding fresh in the G2 Danehill Stakes a fortnight ago and the step-up to 1400m now looks ideal at this stage of his preparation. He's my early Guineas-Derby horse so I'll be sticking with him here. Opened $3.50.

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Tattersall's Tiara preview

No blog last week because I find it difficult to get excited about a handful of Listed races at Ipswich after the quality of racing we have enjoyed on a weekly basis for the last four months.

It's bad news from here on in too with the last Group 1 of the season tomorrow at Eagle Farm - we won't see another until the Memsie Stakes in late August.

With that in mind I'm going to do my most comprehensive wrap in a long time - because I won't get a chance to do it again for a long time.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Jim Cassidy has ridden nine winners from his last 30 rides at a strike rate of 30% including seven Saturday winners in the past three weeks.

He has just one ride tomorrow - Steps in Time (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 3).

Eagle Farm

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with  isolated showers. ***

Tattersall's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, fillies and mares w-f-a)

Current market

*** Griante is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Costa Viva : Only two favourites have won in the last 12 years. In that time six winners have paid double figure odds including three of the last five. Four of the last six winners were three-year-olds. 

"The Speed Map" says - Should be a solid tempo with Steps in Time and Driefontein sure to press forward. I can't imagine Red Tracer, Catkins, Cosmic Endeavour and Platinum Rocker will be all that far away either. It might be best to look for a horse drawn well who can sit midfield because it was hard to make ground from back in the field here a fortnight ago.

Cosmic Endeavour ticks a lot of boxes. She'll get a good run from the inside draw. She's won three of her last four. If there's a jockey on the planet riding better than Tommy Berry I haven't seen them. She's unbeaten at the 1400m including victory at this track and distance last start in the G2 Dane Ripper Stakes.

Red Tracer has won three from five at the Eagle Farm 1400m with her only two failures being in this race two years ago and the recent G1 Stradbroke Handicap. Her run in that race (below) wasn't bad given she had to go back from a wide gate because given the sit-and-sprint tactics in that race there was no way she could win from back there. Jockey Nash Rawiller won this race on this mare last year and has had just three other rides in the event for a winner (Porto Roca in 2001) and a second.

Stablemate Catkins hasn't raced for nine weeks and was scratched from the G2 Dane Ripper which leads me to believe not all has been going to plan for her and that is always a concern going into a big race. She does boast four wins and a second from five runs fresh however and apart from her last start failure she has not missed a place in 12 runs dating back to April last year.

Steps in Time looks the likely leader and she'll give you a good sight for a long way as she always does. Last time she raced fresh she gave Catkins the scare of her life and proved it was no fluke by claiming the G1 Coolmore next start. The long Eagle Farm strait worries me though - she'll be a sitting shot for the swoopers.

Driefontein is another who will be up near the lead but she needs a firm surface so the stable will be praying the forecast showers aren't too heavy. Her runs this prep on dry tracks have been great with wins in the G1 Sangster Classic, G3 Irwin Stakes, the Magic Millions Quality, a second in the G2 Dane Ripper and a three length seventh in the G1 Doomben 10,000. A mare in form.

Avoid Lightning looks to be getting back to her best form. She won five of her first six starts before connections had to endure a frustrating 20 month period that yielded just one win from eleven appearances. That came to an end in late March and she has won three of her last four with her only defeat coming at the hands of the favourite here in Cosmic Endeavour. Another mare in form.

Lohnspresso is having her first go beyond 1200m but her get back, run-on style of racing suggests it should be no problem. Her only other run fourth-up was a victory over Essay Raider in the G2 Centrebet Classic at Morphettville and she was competitive in the Spring against the boys in the G2 Salinger Stakes on VRC Derby Day. First start going clockwise.

Peron failed in this race as a three-year-old last year but she was at the end of her prep. Still she hasn't recaptured the form that saw her start a $6 third favourite in that event and hasn't won a race for over a year. I thought she had her chance in the G2 Dane Ripper too but she just wasn't good enough.

Angel of Mercy was safely held by Catkins in the G2 Emancipation Stakes five starts back and meets her two kilos worse off for that defeat so it's hard to see her finishing in front of that mare tomorrow. Having said that she's won twice in Brisbane since at the mile, both times in open company and trainer Gerald Ryan is a two time winner of this race - Mon Mekki in 2003 & 
Melito in 2010.

Platinum Rocker was just OK in the G2 Dane Ripper and it must be noted that was only the second time in her career she missed the top four - the other being her first start on a slow track. She needs to improve lengths on that to win here.

Locky's Selections

1 Red Tracer

14 Cosmic Endeavour

4 Catkins
3 Steps In Time

Other bets

Wish Come True (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 2) is a former European galloper who broke through for his first win on Australian soil last start and I think he can go on with it from here. His only run over this journey was a second in the G2 Italian Derby and he looks well weighted at just 1.5kg over the minimum. Trainer Peter Moody has already bagged another Eagle Farm staying major with Floria (G2 Brisbane Cup) and jockey Glen Boss is in good form this Winter Carnival with three wins aboard Srikandi and another victory on Zephyron (G3 Premier's Cup). $3.80.

Tonopah (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) is in good form and although he won't be any flash price he should get the chocolates and could be a horse to follow. $2.80.

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Stradbroke Handicap preview

I'm biased because I'm a parochial Queenslander but this is one of my favourite race days of the year.

There are three Group 1's - the Stradbroke Handicap, the Queensland Derby and the J.J.Atkins  for the 2-y-o's - plus the G2 Brisbane Cup and the G2 Dane Ripper for the fillies and mares not to mention four other black type races.

There's plenty of action overseas too with a horse named Australia to run an odds-on favourite in the time honoured Epsom Derby early Sunday morning (AEST). Around the same time but across the pond California Chrome will attempt to become the first horse to win the Triple Crown since 1978 and only the 12th ever when he lines up in the Belmont Stakes.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Chris Waller has already claimed the Eagle Farm Cup (Moriarty) and the Grand Prix Stakes (Vilanova) this carnival plus he bagged five winners at Rosehill last Saturday and followed that up with a midweek treble at Warwick Farm.

He has quite a few runners at Eagle Farm tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Brazen Beau (Race 6 No. 1), Vilanova (Race 7 No. 2), Red Tracer (Race 8 No. 4) and Moriarty (Race 9 No. 1).

Eagle Farm

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of isolated showers. ***

Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Knoydart : In the last 20 years only one winner has carried 56kg or more. 12 of those paid $10+. Eight of the last 12 winners came via the G1 Doomben 10,000 but none completed the double. Linton's victory last year was the first by a last start winner since Never Undercharge (1993).

"The Speed Map" says - Srikandi (17), Temple of Boom (18) and River Lad (19) will push forward from wide gates but they won't get to the lead too easily you would think with noted on-pacers Conservatorium (2) and Belltone (4) sure to take advantage of their good draws. Huckelebuck (1), Spirit of Boom (6), Emblems (8), Famous Seamus (10) and Knoydart (14) look like they will get the gun runs. Not sure where they go with Red Tracer (16). Rebel Dane (22) has to go back.

It will pay to review the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) because many of these runners contested that feature and it has been the best guide to this race in recent years.

Spirit of Boom and Temple of Boom were both great and I thought Rebel Dane was a super lead-up for this and he will appreciate the bigger Eagle Farm track because the long straight means he won't be forced to take off so early. I loved the way Knoydart attacked the line and he drops to 53.5kg here and gets a 2.5kg-4.5kg swing in the weights on his rivals. Famous Seamus can be forgiven because if you watch the replay he doesn't have any luck at all in the straight and Conservatorium was wide without cover and could improve from his inside draw.

Srikandi and Hucklebuck don't come through that formline but they both have claims because four three-year-olds have won this race in the last 11 years. 

Srikandi has only tasted defeat once in her seven start career and although this is clearly her biggest test to date she gives every impression she could develop into a topliner. She'll never get into another G1 with this sort of weight but the barrier draw is terrible and means she'll have to do a bit of work early.

Hucklebuck on the other hand looks to get a lovely smother on the rails here and he has enough early speed to be sitting not far off the leaders in what looks to be a fast run race on paper. If he can get clear at the right time he will be finishing the race off powerfully with just the 51kg.

Red Tracer is hard to get a line through because she's had just two trails leading into this and hasn't run since finishing third in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes (below) in mid-April. History says not many Stradbroke's are won on a preparation like that but she's had four attempts at the Eagle Farm 1400m for three wins. She also has to overcome a horror draw.

Smokin' Joey comes off a breathtaking effort in the G1 Goodwood where he swept home from near last to get up on the line. He's a good horse on his day, the problem is catching him on his day. I'm not sure barrier three is all that good for a horse with his racing pattern either because I can see him getting held up in the ruck.

Sacred Star is attempting to become the first horse to complete the G2 QTC Cup-G1 Stradbroke Handicap double but he has the services of in-form jockey Timothy Bell who is coming off a Black Type treble last weekend including the G1 Queensland Oaks. The stable has had three winners from just six runners since arriving from NZ. He also boasts three wins at 1600m and beyond and the old-timers say you need to be able to run a strong mile to win a Stradbroke even though it is a 1400m race.

Masthead is probably the next best but he needs a scratching to get into the field. The stable is in red hot form and jockey Chris Munce has won this race twice before.

Locky's Selections

10 Knoydart

18 Hucklebuck

1 Spirit of Boom
2 Rebel Dane

Other bets

Sir Moments (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 1) got us the chocolates last weekend at $19 and I see no reason not to butter up again here tomorrow because even though he won narrowly if he had have been beaten he would have been stiff because he had a chequered passage all the way down the home straight. Despite all that he was still finishing better than anything and was actually going away from them on the line so the extra 200m shouldn't be a problem. Opened $3.30.

Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 11) will appreciate dropping back to G2 fillies and mares grade after  taking on open G1's at her last two outings. She was closing late in the G1 BTC Cup and the run in the G1 Doomben 10,00 was completely forgivable given she was forced to make a long, searching run out very deep and then she got into a bumping duel at the top of the straight. She'll also benefit from the set weights plus penalties conditions of the race because she is getting at least 1.5kg from most of her rivals. If she can take advantage of her good draw she can be closer in transit tomorrow and she's a four time winner at 1400m. Opened $9.00.

Looks Like The Cat (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 5) could surprise a few people getting back to Eagle Farm because that is where he scored his scintillating debut win and he hasn't looked all that comfortable on the Doomben circuit his last two runs although he has tried hard and been competitive. He's a big, long striding colt and gives the impression the wide open expanses should suit. He hasn't been far away from the raging favourite Brazen Beau at his last two appearances and if he can find a couple of lengths with the return to his home track and the step up to 1600m then he can figure here. Opened $8.00.

Precedence (Eagle Farm Race 8 No. 2) bypassed the Melbourne and Sydney carnivals and has been specifically aimed at Brisbane and you would think this is the race they had in mind all along. Third run in last prep he won the G2 Moonee Valley Cup and he did enjoy success up here last year claiming the G2 Premier's Cup. He was closing on Zephyron in the final stages last start and meets him 2kg better off tomorrow. He's a five time winner at 2400m+ so the extra 200m should suit. Opened $5.50.

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