No blog last week because I find it difficult to get excited about a handful of Listed races at Ipswich after the quality of racing we have enjoyed on a weekly basis for the last four months.
It's bad news from here on in too with the last Group 1 of the season tomorrow at Eagle Farm - we won't see another until the Memsie Stakes in late August.
With that in mind I'm going to do my most comprehensive wrap in a long time - because I won't get a chance to do it again for a long time.
It's bad news from here on in too with the last Group 1 of the season tomorrow at Eagle Farm - we won't see another until the Memsie Stakes in late August.
With that in mind I'm going to do my most comprehensive wrap in a long time - because I won't get a chance to do it again for a long time.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Jim Cassidy has ridden nine winners from his last 30 rides at a strike rate of 30% including seven Saturday winners in the past three weeks.
He has just one ride tomorrow - Steps in Time (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 3).
Eagle Farm
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with isolated showers. ***
Tattersall's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, fillies and mares w-f-a)
Current market
*** Griante is an early scratching ***
Current market
*** Griante is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Costa Viva : Only two favourites have won in the last 12 years. In that time six winners have paid double figure odds including three of the last five. Four of the last six winners were three-year-olds.
"The Speed Map" says - Should be a solid tempo with Steps in Time and Driefontein sure to press forward. I can't imagine Red Tracer, Catkins, Cosmic Endeavour and Platinum Rocker will be all that far away either. It might be best to look for a horse drawn well who can sit midfield because it was hard to make ground from back in the field here a fortnight ago.
Cosmic Endeavour ticks a lot of boxes. She'll get a good run from the inside draw. She's won three of her last four. If there's a jockey on the planet riding better than Tommy Berry I haven't seen them. She's unbeaten at the 1400m including victory at this track and distance last start in the G2 Dane Ripper Stakes.
Red Tracer has won three from five at the Eagle Farm 1400m with her only two failures being in this race two years ago and the recent G1 Stradbroke Handicap. Her run in that race (below) wasn't bad given she had to go back from a wide gate because given the sit-and-sprint tactics in that race there was no way she could win from back there. Jockey Nash Rawiller won this race on this mare last year and has had just three other rides in the event for a winner (Porto Roca in 2001) and a second.
Stablemate Catkins hasn't raced for nine weeks and was scratched from the G2 Dane Ripper which leads me to believe not all has been going to plan for her and that is always a concern going into a big race. She does boast four wins and a second from five runs fresh however and apart from her last start failure she has not missed a place in 12 runs dating back to April last year.
Steps in Time looks the likely leader and she'll give you a good sight for a long way as she always does. Last time she raced fresh she gave Catkins the scare of her life and proved it was no fluke by claiming the G1 Coolmore next start. The long Eagle Farm strait worries me though - she'll be a sitting shot for the swoopers.
Driefontein is another who will be up near the lead but she needs a firm surface so the stable will be praying the forecast showers aren't too heavy. Her runs this prep on dry tracks have been great with wins in the G1 Sangster Classic, G3 Irwin Stakes, the Magic Millions Quality, a second in the G2 Dane Ripper and a three length seventh in the G1 Doomben 10,000. A mare in form.
Avoid Lightning looks to be getting back to her best form. She won five of her first six starts before connections had to endure a frustrating 20 month period that yielded just one win from eleven appearances. That came to an end in late March and she has won three of her last four with her only defeat coming at the hands of the favourite here in Cosmic Endeavour. Another mare in form.
Lohnspresso is having her first go beyond 1200m but her get back, run-on style of racing suggests it should be no problem. Her only other run fourth-up was a victory over Essay Raider in the G2 Centrebet Classic at Morphettville and she was competitive in the Spring against the boys in the G2 Salinger Stakes on VRC Derby Day. First start going clockwise.
Peron failed in this race as a three-year-old last year but she was at the end of her prep. Still she hasn't recaptured the form that saw her start a $6 third favourite in that event and hasn't won a race for over a year. I thought she had her chance in the G2 Dane Ripper too but she just wasn't good enough.
Angel of Mercy was safely held by Catkins in the G2 Emancipation Stakes five starts back and meets her two kilos worse off for that defeat so it's hard to see her finishing in front of that mare tomorrow. Having said that she's won twice in Brisbane since at the mile, both times in open company and trainer Gerald Ryan is a two time winner of this race - Mon Mekki in 2003 &
Melito in 2010.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Should be a solid tempo with Steps in Time and Driefontein sure to press forward. I can't imagine Red Tracer, Catkins, Cosmic Endeavour and Platinum Rocker will be all that far away either. It might be best to look for a horse drawn well who can sit midfield because it was hard to make ground from back in the field here a fortnight ago.
Cosmic Endeavour ticks a lot of boxes. She'll get a good run from the inside draw. She's won three of her last four. If there's a jockey on the planet riding better than Tommy Berry I haven't seen them. She's unbeaten at the 1400m including victory at this track and distance last start in the G2 Dane Ripper Stakes.
Red Tracer has won three from five at the Eagle Farm 1400m with her only two failures being in this race two years ago and the recent G1 Stradbroke Handicap. Her run in that race (below) wasn't bad given she had to go back from a wide gate because given the sit-and-sprint tactics in that race there was no way she could win from back there. Jockey Nash Rawiller won this race on this mare last year and has had just three other rides in the event for a winner (Porto Roca in 2001) and a second.
Stablemate Catkins hasn't raced for nine weeks and was scratched from the G2 Dane Ripper which leads me to believe not all has been going to plan for her and that is always a concern going into a big race. She does boast four wins and a second from five runs fresh however and apart from her last start failure she has not missed a place in 12 runs dating back to April last year.
Steps in Time looks the likely leader and she'll give you a good sight for a long way as she always does. Last time she raced fresh she gave Catkins the scare of her life and proved it was no fluke by claiming the G1 Coolmore next start. The long Eagle Farm strait worries me though - she'll be a sitting shot for the swoopers.
Driefontein is another who will be up near the lead but she needs a firm surface so the stable will be praying the forecast showers aren't too heavy. Her runs this prep on dry tracks have been great with wins in the G1 Sangster Classic, G3 Irwin Stakes, the Magic Millions Quality, a second in the G2 Dane Ripper and a three length seventh in the G1 Doomben 10,000. A mare in form.
Avoid Lightning looks to be getting back to her best form. She won five of her first six starts before connections had to endure a frustrating 20 month period that yielded just one win from eleven appearances. That came to an end in late March and she has won three of her last four with her only defeat coming at the hands of the favourite here in Cosmic Endeavour. Another mare in form.
Peron failed in this race as a three-year-old last year but she was at the end of her prep. Still she hasn't recaptured the form that saw her start a $6 third favourite in that event and hasn't won a race for over a year. I thought she had her chance in the G2 Dane Ripper too but she just wasn't good enough.
Angel of Mercy was safely held by Catkins in the G2 Emancipation Stakes five starts back and meets her two kilos worse off for that defeat so it's hard to see her finishing in front of that mare tomorrow. Having said that she's won twice in Brisbane since at the mile, both times in open company and trainer Gerald Ryan is a two time winner of this race - Mon Mekki in 2003 &
Melito in 2010.
Platinum Rocker was just OK in the G2 Dane Ripper and it must be noted that was only the second time in her career she missed the top four - the other being her first start on a slow track. She needs to improve lengths on that to win here.
1 Red Tracer
14 Cosmic Endeavour
4 Catkins
3 Steps In Time
Wish Come True (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 2) is a former European galloper who broke through for his first win on Australian soil last start and I think he can go on with it from here. His only run over this journey was a second in the G2 Italian Derby and he looks well weighted at just 1.5kg over the minimum. Trainer Peter Moody has already bagged another Eagle Farm staying major with Floria (G2 Brisbane Cup) and jockey Glen Boss is in good form this Winter Carnival with three wins aboard Srikandi and another victory on Zephyron (G3 Premier's Cup). $3.80.
Tonopah (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) is in good form and although he won't be any flash price he should get the chocolates and could be a horse to follow. $2.80.
3 Steps In Time
Other bets
Wish Come True (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 2) is a former European galloper who broke through for his first win on Australian soil last start and I think he can go on with it from here. His only run over this journey was a second in the G2 Italian Derby and he looks well weighted at just 1.5kg over the minimum. Trainer Peter Moody has already bagged another Eagle Farm staying major with Floria (G2 Brisbane Cup) and jockey Glen Boss is in good form this Winter Carnival with three wins aboard Srikandi and another victory on Zephyron (G3 Premier's Cup). $3.80.
Tonopah (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) is in good form and although he won't be any flash price he should get the chocolates and could be a horse to follow. $2.80.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
- Luis Suarez, Brazil, 19 June 2014
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