I'm biased because I'm a parochial Queenslander but this is one of my favourite race days of the year.
There are three Group 1's - the Stradbroke Handicap, the Queensland Derby and the J.J.Atkins for the 2-y-o's - plus the G2 Brisbane Cup and the G2 Dane Ripper for the fillies and mares not to mention four other black type races.
There's plenty of action overseas too with a horse named Australia to run an odds-on favourite in the time honoured Epsom Derby early Sunday morning (AEST). Around the same time but across the pond California Chrome will attempt to become the first horse to win the Triple Crown since 1978 and only the 12th ever when he lines up in the Belmont Stakes.
There are three Group 1's - the Stradbroke Handicap, the Queensland Derby and the J.J.Atkins for the 2-y-o's - plus the G2 Brisbane Cup and the G2 Dane Ripper for the fillies and mares not to mention four other black type races.
There's plenty of action overseas too with a horse named Australia to run an odds-on favourite in the time honoured Epsom Derby early Sunday morning (AEST). Around the same time but across the pond California Chrome will attempt to become the first horse to win the Triple Crown since 1978 and only the 12th ever when he lines up in the Belmont Stakes.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Chris Waller has already claimed the Eagle Farm Cup (Moriarty) and the Grand Prix Stakes (Vilanova) this carnival plus he bagged five winners at Rosehill last Saturday and followed that up with a midweek treble at Warwick Farm.
He has quite a few runners at Eagle Farm tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Brazen Beau (Race 6 No. 1), Vilanova (Race 7 No. 2), Red Tracer (Race 8 No. 4) and Moriarty (Race 9 No. 1).
Eagle Farm
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of isolated showers. ***
Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Knoydart : In the last 20 years only one winner has carried 56kg or more. 12 of those paid $10+. Eight of the last 12 winners came via the G1 Doomben 10,000 but none completed the double. Linton's victory last year was the first by a last start winner since Never Undercharge (1993).
"The Speed Map" says - Srikandi (17), Temple of Boom (18) and River Lad (19) will push forward from wide gates but they won't get to the lead too easily you would think with noted on-pacers Conservatorium (2) and Belltone (4) sure to take advantage of their good draws. Huckelebuck (1), Spirit of Boom (6), Emblems (8), Famous Seamus (10) and Knoydart (14) look like they will get the gun runs. Not sure where they go with Red Tracer (16). Rebel Dane (22) has to go back.
It will pay to review the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) because many of these runners contested that feature and it has been the best guide to this race in recent years.
Spirit of Boom and Temple of Boom were both great and I thought Rebel Dane was a super lead-up for this and he will appreciate the bigger Eagle Farm track because the long straight means he won't be forced to take off so early. I loved the way Knoydart attacked the line and he drops to 53.5kg here and gets a 2.5kg-4.5kg swing in the weights on his rivals. Famous Seamus can be forgiven because if you watch the replay he doesn't have any luck at all in the straight and Conservatorium was wide without cover and could improve from his inside draw.
Srikandi and Hucklebuck don't come through that formline but they both have claims because four three-year-olds have won this race in the last 11 years.
Srikandi has only tasted defeat once in her seven start career and although this is clearly her biggest test to date she gives every impression she could develop into a topliner. She'll never get into another G1 with this sort of weight but the barrier draw is terrible and means she'll have to do a bit of work early.
Hucklebuck on the other hand looks to get a lovely smother on the rails here and he has enough early speed to be sitting not far off the leaders in what looks to be a fast run race on paper. If he can get clear at the right time he will be finishing the race off powerfully with just the 51kg.
Red Tracer is hard to get a line through because she's had just two trails leading into this and hasn't run since finishing third in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes (below) in mid-April. History says not many Stradbroke's are won on a preparation like that but she's had four attempts at the Eagle Farm 1400m for three wins. She also has to overcome a horror draw.
Smokin' Joey comes off a breathtaking effort in the G1 Goodwood where he swept home from near last to get up on the line. He's a good horse on his day, the problem is catching him on his day. I'm not sure barrier three is all that good for a horse with his racing pattern either because I can see him getting held up in the ruck.
Sacred Star is attempting to become the first horse to complete the G2 QTC Cup-G1 Stradbroke Handicap double but he has the services of in-form jockey Timothy Bell who is coming off a Black Type treble last weekend including the G1 Queensland Oaks. The stable has had three winners from just six runners since arriving from NZ. He also boasts three wins at 1600m and beyond and the old-timers say you need to be able to run a strong mile to win a Stradbroke even though it is a 1400m race.
Masthead is probably the next best but he needs a scratching to get into the field. The stable is in red hot form and jockey Chris Munce has won this race twice before.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Srikandi (17), Temple of Boom (18) and River Lad (19) will push forward from wide gates but they won't get to the lead too easily you would think with noted on-pacers Conservatorium (2) and Belltone (4) sure to take advantage of their good draws. Huckelebuck (1), Spirit of Boom (6), Emblems (8), Famous Seamus (10) and Knoydart (14) look like they will get the gun runs. Not sure where they go with Red Tracer (16). Rebel Dane (22) has to go back.
It will pay to review the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) because many of these runners contested that feature and it has been the best guide to this race in recent years.
Spirit of Boom and Temple of Boom were both great and I thought Rebel Dane was a super lead-up for this and he will appreciate the bigger Eagle Farm track because the long straight means he won't be forced to take off so early. I loved the way Knoydart attacked the line and he drops to 53.5kg here and gets a 2.5kg-4.5kg swing in the weights on his rivals. Famous Seamus can be forgiven because if you watch the replay he doesn't have any luck at all in the straight and Conservatorium was wide without cover and could improve from his inside draw.
Srikandi and Hucklebuck don't come through that formline but they both have claims because four three-year-olds have won this race in the last 11 years.
Srikandi has only tasted defeat once in her seven start career and although this is clearly her biggest test to date she gives every impression she could develop into a topliner. She'll never get into another G1 with this sort of weight but the barrier draw is terrible and means she'll have to do a bit of work early.
Hucklebuck on the other hand looks to get a lovely smother on the rails here and he has enough early speed to be sitting not far off the leaders in what looks to be a fast run race on paper. If he can get clear at the right time he will be finishing the race off powerfully with just the 51kg.
Red Tracer is hard to get a line through because she's had just two trails leading into this and hasn't run since finishing third in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes (below) in mid-April. History says not many Stradbroke's are won on a preparation like that but she's had four attempts at the Eagle Farm 1400m for three wins. She also has to overcome a horror draw.
Smokin' Joey comes off a breathtaking effort in the G1 Goodwood where he swept home from near last to get up on the line. He's a good horse on his day, the problem is catching him on his day. I'm not sure barrier three is all that good for a horse with his racing pattern either because I can see him getting held up in the ruck.
Sacred Star is attempting to become the first horse to complete the G2 QTC Cup-G1 Stradbroke Handicap double but he has the services of in-form jockey Timothy Bell who is coming off a Black Type treble last weekend including the G1 Queensland Oaks. The stable has had three winners from just six runners since arriving from NZ. He also boasts three wins at 1600m and beyond and the old-timers say you need to be able to run a strong mile to win a Stradbroke even though it is a 1400m race.
Masthead is probably the next best but he needs a scratching to get into the field. The stable is in red hot form and jockey Chris Munce has won this race twice before.
10 Knoydart
18 Hucklebuck
1 Spirit of Boom
2 Rebel Dane
Sir Moments (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 1) got us the chocolates last weekend at $19 and I see no reason not to butter up again here tomorrow because even though he won narrowly if he had have been beaten he would have been stiff because he had a chequered passage all the way down the home straight. Despite all that he was still finishing better than anything and was actually going away from them on the line so the extra 200m shouldn't be a problem. Opened $3.30.
Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 11) will appreciate dropping back to G2 fillies and mares grade after taking on open G1's at her last two outings. She was closing late in the G1 BTC Cup and the run in the G1 Doomben 10,00 was completely forgivable given she was forced to make a long, searching run out very deep and then she got into a bumping duel at the top of the straight. She'll also benefit from the set weights plus penalties conditions of the race because she is getting at least 1.5kg from most of her rivals. If she can take advantage of her good draw she can be closer in transit tomorrow and she's a four time winner at 1400m. Opened $9.00.
Precedence (Eagle Farm Race 8 No. 2) bypassed the Melbourne and Sydney carnivals and has been specifically aimed at Brisbane and you would think this is the race they had in mind all along. Third run in last prep he won the G2 Moonee Valley Cup and he did enjoy success up here last year claiming the G2 Premier's Cup. He was closing on Zephyron in the final stages last start and meets him 2kg better off tomorrow. He's a five time winner at 2400m+ so the extra 200m should suit. Opened $5.50.
2 Rebel Dane
Other bets
Sir Moments (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 1) got us the chocolates last weekend at $19 and I see no reason not to butter up again here tomorrow because even though he won narrowly if he had have been beaten he would have been stiff because he had a chequered passage all the way down the home straight. Despite all that he was still finishing better than anything and was actually going away from them on the line so the extra 200m shouldn't be a problem. Opened $3.30.
Peron (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 11) will appreciate dropping back to G2 fillies and mares grade after taking on open G1's at her last two outings. She was closing late in the G1 BTC Cup and the run in the G1 Doomben 10,00 was completely forgivable given she was forced to make a long, searching run out very deep and then she got into a bumping duel at the top of the straight. She'll also benefit from the set weights plus penalties conditions of the race because she is getting at least 1.5kg from most of her rivals. If she can take advantage of her good draw she can be closer in transit tomorrow and she's a four time winner at 1400m. Opened $9.00.
Looks Like The Cat (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 5) could surprise a few people getting back to Eagle Farm because that is where he scored his scintillating debut win and he hasn't looked all that comfortable on the Doomben circuit his last two runs although he has tried hard and been competitive. He's a big, long striding colt and gives the impression the wide open expanses should suit. He hasn't been far away from the raging favourite Brazen Beau at his last two appearances and if he can find a couple of lengths with the return to his home track and the step up to 1600m then he can figure here. Opened $8.00.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
- Doc Neeson, Sydney, 4 June 2014
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