BTC Cup / Goodwood preview

Two Group 1 sprints clash this weekend with the BTC Cup in Brisbane and The Goodwood in Adelaide. 

Despite the clash both race clubs have attracted quality fields.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Gerald Ryan bagged a winning double at the Gold Coast last weekend with Dances on Stars and Dothraki.

He has some good chances in Brisbane tomorrow too - Time for War (Race 4 No.1) and Hot Snitzel (Race 7 No. 5).

Doomben

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of showers. ***

BTC Cup (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Snitzerland is an early scratching ***

Buffering looks like he'll get the gun run here from the good barrier. I think he can lead at his leisure and if so he'll be hard to run down. His last start third behind Lankan Rupee and Rebel Dane is good enough to win this. Rob Heathcote has trained the beaten favourite in this race the last two years running but I think it could be a case of third time lucky.

Hot Snitzel is in good form as are his trainer and jockey. He won the G2 Sires Produce and ran 2nd in the G1 T.J. Smith up here in 2011. He was just two lengths behind Lankan Rupee three starts back at level weights but his best form is on rain affected ground.

Spirit of Boom has been rock solid this campaign with seconds to Lankan Rupee in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and the G1 Newmarket before finally breaking through for his maiden G1 in the William Reid Stakes. Came from last two weeks ago to run down all bar his stablemate/half-brother in Temple of Boom. He'll get back and swoop so the presence of plenty of speed helps (Buffering, Temple of Boom, Tiger Tees, Hot Snitzel) and a drying track does too.

Temple of Boom sat three wide on the speed last start and still managed to kick and win. It was a gutsy victory but it was his first win in a very long time. Only one local horse (Albert the Fat, then trained by Eden Petrie) has won this race in the last 10 years.

Tiger Tees is a proven performer in Queensland and this looks an easier assignment than his past two where he chased home Lankan Rupee, Rebel Dane and Buffering in the G1 T.J. Smith and Hana's Goal and Weary in the G1 All Aged Stakes. Three of the last five winners of this race paid double figure odds. Trainer Joe Pride would have preferred a bit of rain though.

Locky's Selections

1 Buffering

2 Spirit of Boom
4 Tiger Tees
5 Hot Snitzel

Morphettville

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 7. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with isolated showers. ***

The Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)

Current market

*** Esprit de Bullet and Eclair Big Bang are early scratchings ***

Gregers is the lightly raced young horse on the improve while some of these have had plenty of chances. She's got a good draw, no weight and an in-form jockey who rode a treble last weekend. The last four winners of this race were all female.

Unpretentious comes off a blistering run in the G1 William Reid where he just missed and prior to that he was OK behind the likes of Snitzerland and Lankan Rupee. He'll get well back but if they're running on late and wide (as they have been at Morphettville recently) then he should be steaming home.

Driefontein has strung together two solid wins since coming to SA and she's drawn to get another lovely run in transit tomorrow. She's a mare in winning form and it always pays to follow the girls when they string a few together. The stable must be respected in any G1.

Miracles of Life won her first race in more than a year last weekend and backs up here in what may well be her last start before retirement. The victory last Saturday was dominant albeit in much weaker company but I did like the way she savaged the line.

There's a few more I could make a case for like Sessions, Essay Raider, Sistine Demon and Platelet but that's my top four selections.

Locky's Selections

20 Gregers
5 Unpretentious
6 Driefontein
19 Miracles of Life

Other bets

Shaumari (Doomben Race 4 No. 10) wasn't suited by a dawdling tempo last time out but the presence of several on-pace runners in this field should ensure he gets a genuine speed in this race tomorrow. A talented two-year-old on an upward spiral from the powerful Darley yard. $4.50 was bet.

Rezoned (Morphettville Race 2 No. 4) never saw daylight in the G1 Oaks a fortnight ago and went to the line hard held but still managed to maintain her position all the way down the straight. She's a Zabeel filly so she should eat up the 2500m and with even luck in running she should be there when the whips are cracking. $4.20. 

Tried and Tired (Flemington Race 8 No. 9) has won five from eight and is racing in good heart, winning his latest two, both at 1400m. I like the fact that he can take a handy position in his races and that he displays a turn of foot at the end. $3.50.

Sacred Flyer (Rosehill Race 6 No. 7) is one I could entertain at each-way odds. He's won three from three here at the 2000m and whilst he's never won second-up he has been placed three times in four attempts. He never threatened first-up but his closing sectionals were sound. $13.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Nash Rawiller was the rider of the Autumn Carnival with five Group 1 wins courtesy of Silent Achiever (Ranvet, BMW), Tiger Tees (Galaxy), Peggy Jean (Sires Produce) & Hana's Goal (All Aged).

He has two rides at the Gold Coast tomorrow - Junoob (Race 7 No. 6) 4th and Dothraki (Race 8 No. 2) 1st $5.10 win / $1.90 place.

Morphettville

South Australian Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Kushadasi just edged out Scratchy Bottom in a deceptive finish. Best Case fought on bravely and Gamblin' Guru faded after looming to win on the turn. The rest were safely held.

Locky's Selections

1 Gamblin' Guru (4th)

8 Bring Something (8th)
4 Order of the Sun (6th)
16 Scratchy Bottom (2nd) $2.30 place

Gold Coast

Hollindale Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)

The drop back to G2 clearly helped Streama. I though Mr O'ceirin had pinched us the chocolates when Bossy cut the corner on the home turn but the run on the testing surface second-up told. Precedence went great fresh and looks in for a good campaign up here - he did win the Premier's Cup at Doomben last year and his best performances last prep were 2nd/3rd/4th run in. I wouldn't be writing off Junoob or Moriarty either - they loomed to win but just couldn't seem to let down on the bog track.

Locky's Selections

5 Mr O'ceirin (2nd) $2.20 place
6 Junoob (4th)
2 Moriarty (5th)
10 Streama (1st)

Exacta 10-5 $17.30
Quinella 5-10 $10.30
Any 2 5-10 $4.40

Other bets

La Amistad (Hawkesbury Race 4 No. 17) is first emergency but she's one to watch if she sneaks into the field. A half-sister to Makybe Diva, she progressed nicely through the grades last prep before being thrown in at the deep end in the G2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington during the Spring Carnival at just her sixth career start. She had a couple of lead up runs this campaign before being sent to Echuca for a soft kill and this now looks like the right race for her at this stage of her preparation. Stable and jockey (Hawkes/McDonald) are flying. Opened at $8 but has been backed into $4.60. SCR. Won midweek.

Kayjay's Joy (Hawkesbury Race 7 No. 16) was narrowly beaten when sensationally backed first-up off the back of a stylish trial win. Her closing sectionals on that day were amazing and prior to that she was unbeaten having won her only two other starts by big margins. $8.50. 11th.

The Quarterback (Morphettville Race 6 No. 4) seems to have finally worked out what this game is about after showing plenty of early potential. His last-to-first win last start had to be seen to be believed and he was unlucky to just miss out prior to that with the huge 60kg impost. His three runs previous to that were behind the likes of Shamus Award, Hucklebuck and Bull Point. This is much easier. $4.80 was bet. 5th. Poor. Rider reported he may not have handled the wet track.

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S.A. Derby preview

No blog last week as I was sent for a freshen-up following the rigours of my Sydney Autumn campaign. By that I mean I was drinking beer watching the mighty Pies flog Essendon. Go the Pies.

Attention moves to South Australia and Queensland this weekend but unfortunately a change of venue hasn't meant a change in weather with both Morphettville and the Gold Coast (below) getting their fair share of rain this week.

The storm cell that hit Southport around 4.30pm this afternoon

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Nash Rawiller was the rider of the Autumn Carnival with five Group 1 wins courtesy of Silent Achiever (Ranvet, BMW), Tiger Tees (Galaxy), Peggy Jean (Sires Produce) & Hana's Goal (All Aged).

He has two rides at the Gold Coast tomorrow - Junoob (Race 7 No. 6) and Dothraki (Race 8 No. 2).

Morphettville

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with isolated showers. ***

South Australian Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm looking for a bit of value here and putting Gamblin' Guru on top. The stable is in top form with Go Indy Go winning the G1 Champagne Stakes in Sydney last Saturday plus a double here at Morphettville and a treble at Oakbank on Easter Monday from only three runners. Leon Macdonald has won this race twice before so he knows what he's doing. The barrier is of no real concern as four winners have jumped from the outside barrier in the last 17 years making it the most successful starting gate in that period. He's won his last two including the traditional lead-up for this in the G3 Chairman's Stakes, he's a three time winner at the track, he handles all surfaces and he has two victories at 2000m+.

Bring Something was super impressive winning last time out. That made it back-to-back victories following a six and a half length win with 58kg to break his maiden at his previous start. He'll run out the 2500m strongly. Many of these won't.  He's another who will handle the sting out of the ground.

Order of the Sun gave nothing else a chance on ANZAC Day when he led from barrier to box to score an emphatic seven length win in the VRC St Leger. That was at 2800m so the trip here holds no fears. Six of the last eight winners started favourite. Trainer Anthony Cummings won this race in 2011 with Shadows in the Sun. Unplaced in two starts on affected ground.

Scratchy Bottom came from a mile back to just miss out in the G1 Oaks last start. She gives every indication that the 2500m will be no problem and she'll also appreciate the better barrier this week which should allow her a better run in transit.

I can't see anything that finished behind Order of the Sun challenging him here so that rules out Honey Steel's Gold and More Rewarding although both can boast wins on affected ground. 

Best Case, Surge Ahead, Crime Fighter and Surging Wave were all beaten at least 11 lengths in the G1 ATC Derby last start so it's hard to entertain them although this is a drop in grade so a form turnaround wouldn't be a complete shock.

Excites Zelady, Gravitational and Kushadasi were all good behind Gamblin' Guru last start so they could possibly be entertained in exotics. Kushadasi has good wet track credentials.

Locky's Selections

1 Gamblin' Guru

8 Bring Something
4 Order of the Sun
16 Scratchy Bottom

Gold Coast

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 7. The forecast is for a sunny day tomorrow. ***

Hollindale Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I'm leaning to Mr O'ceirin on an each-way basis here given his good second-up record and excellent wet track credentials. He improved sharply second-up last prep when he quickly jumped up in distance to win a 2040m race at Moonee Valley. He also won the Listed Grafton Cup and the G3 Naturalism Stakes last time in and was only four lengths behind Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Cup and a similar margin astern of Happy Trails in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Glen Boss goes back on. The wide barrier shouldn't be a problem as he will roll forward towards the lead.

Junoob is the clear danger. Four wins from his last five starts but they have been in much weaker company than this. His one "failure" was when he hit a slow track and while he did win in heavy going last start he didn't look all that comfortable.

Moriarty is the opposite. He drops back in grade here after chasing the likes of Boban in the G1 Chipping Norton and Silent Achiever in the G1 Ranvet Stakes (below). He performed well up here last year winning the G2 Brisbane Cup. The Waller stable has won this race previously with Metal Bender and My Kingdom of Fife and just missed with Foreteller last year. Wet track is a worry though.

Streama the next best although without real confidence. She doesn't seem like the same mare she was 12 months ago although her last start effort was much improved. Wet track is no bother and on her best form she just about wins this. The problem is I don't think she is anywhere near her best at the moment.

Precedence will need the run, there's been no real push for the Kiwi raider Military Move in the betting, Angel of Mercy was good last time out but this is tougher plus she needs it dry, so does Fat Al and the others are out of their depth.

Locky's Selections

5 Mr O'ceirin
6 Junoob
2 Moriarty
10 Streama

Other bets

La Amistad (Hawkesbury Race 4 No. 17) is first emergency but she's one to watch if she sneaks into the field. A half-sister to Makybe Diva, she progressed nicely through the grades last prep before being thrown in at the deep end in the G2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington during the Spring Carnival at just her sixth career start. She had a couple of lead up runs this campaign before being sent to Echuca for a soft kill and this now looks like the right race for her at this stage of her preparation. Stable and jockey (Hawkes/McDonald) are flying. Opened at $8 but has been backed into $4.60.

Kayjay's Joy (Hawkesbury Race 7 No. 16) was narrowly beaten when sensationally backed first-up off the back of a stylish trial win. Her closing sectionals on that day were amazing and prior to that she was unbeaten having won her only two other starts by big margins. $8.50.

The Quarterback (Morphettville Race 6 No. 4) seems to have finally worked out what this game is about after showing plenty of early potential. His last-to-first win last start had to be seen to be believed and he was unlucky to just miss out prior to that with the huge 60kg impost. His three runs previous to that were behind the likes of Shamus Award, Hucklebuck and Bull Point. This is much easier. $4.80 was bet.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Hugh Bowman has strung together a number of feature race wins this Autumn including Group 1's aboard Criterion (ATC Derby, Rosehill Guineas) and Lucia Valentina (Vinery Stud Stakes) plus black type successes on Weary (Doncaster Prelude), El Roca (Eskimo Prince) and Catkins (Emanciaption Stakes, Wiggle Stakes & Breeders Classic).

His best chances at Randwick tomorrow appear to be Safeguard (Race 4 No. 2) 11th, Catkins (Race 5 No. 3) 6th, Lucia Valentina (Race 6 No. 2) 3rd $1.40 place and Green Moon (Race 8 No. 4) 7th.

Randwick

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

It's a Dundeel peaked at the right time. Sacred Falls chased hard but was no match. Carlton House was solid after setting a good tempo in front and Silent Achiever appeared a bit dour. The rest were safely held.

Locky's Selections

5 Carlton House (3rd) $2.60 place

4 Green Moon (7th)
10 Silent Achiever (4th)
2 It's a Dundeel (1st) $4.70 win / $1.90 place

Any 2 2-5 $6.60

The Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Peach of a ride from young McDonald got Rising Romance home. Zanbagh was OK and Lucia Valentina got too far back. That trio easily accounted for the rest.

Locky's Selections

1 Zanbagh (2nd) $2.10 place
3 Rising Romance (1st) $6.00 win / $1.70 place
2 Lucia Valentina (3rd) $1.40 place
12 Missvonn (8th)

Trifecta 3-1-2 $53.70
Exacta 3-1 $32.70
Quinella 1-3 $16.40
Any 2 3-1 $5.00
Any 2 3-2 $2.40
Any 2 1-2 $3.10

Other bets

Shaumari (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) is the fresh horse on the scene whereas a few of these have had hard preps. He looked impressive winning on debut when he sat wide and charged away in the straight on a wet track. Two Darley horses in the race and #1 stable jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides this bloke - a half-brother to Safeguard. $4.60. 3rd. $1.90 place. Solid run from well back in a leader dominated affair.

Thump (Randwick Race 4 No. 10) is dropping back to a 3-y-o set weights race after contesting a G1 against older horses last start. It wasn't a bad run - just two and a half lengths behind the likes of Spirit of Boom, Fontelina etc. - and this is much easier. $9.00. 4th. Perhaps a little too wet?

Catkins (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) is the form horse of the Autumn and yet the bookies continue to allow us to get on. Stable and jockey are absolutely flying. Handles all tracks and is strong at the mile with two starts for a win in the G2 Tesio Stakes at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day and a narrow second to Red Tracer in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on Derby Day. She's going even better now. $3.30. 6th. Disappointing. Rider Hugh Bowman said post-race that he wasn't happy with her action but an examination revealed no abnormalities.

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The Championships Week 2 preview

The good news is we could be racing on a much better surface in Sydney this week but it still looks like being less than ideal.

Sunny and dry days yesterday and today and the prospect of the same tomorrow are just what the Randwick track manager ordered after the circuit copped more than 50mm of rain over the last two weeks.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Hugh Bowman has strung together a number of feature race wins this Autumn including Group 1's aboard Criterion (ATC Derby, Rosehill Guineas) and Lucia Valentina (Vinery Stud Stakes) plus black type successes on Weary (Doncaster Prelude), El Roca (Eskimo Prince) and Catkins (Emanciaption Stakes, Wiggle Stakes & Breeders Classic).

His best chances at Randwick tomorrow appear to be Safeguard (Race 4 No. 2), Catkins (Race 5 No. 3), Lucia Valentina (Race 6 No. 2) and Green Moon (Race 8 No. 4).

Randwick

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Doesn't appear to be a stack of speed here so this could become one of those tactical w-f-a sit and sprint affairs like the G1 Ranvet Stakes (below) when Carlton House and Silent Achiever were the first two around the corner and the first two over the line. It's a Dundeel couldn't sprint with them and Hawkspur flashed from last to get fourth against the pattern.

Carlton House probably leads Green Moon here but Silent Achiever, It's a Dundeel and even Hawkspur and Le Roi can be handy. Chris Waller runners have drawn the outside four gates so Sacred Falls, Royal Descent, My Kingdom of Fife and Boban must go back. I can't see Toydini and Dear Demi pressing forward either. 

I'm leaning to the two horses who have been saved for this race over the ones who have had other targets. Carlton House will be fitter for his only 2000m run in this country and provided the track isn't too rain affected I think he can dictate here and lead from barrier to box.

Green Moon is a ridiculous price provided the surface gets back to at least dead. Lloyd Williams makes no bones about the fact that he only targets the "big" races and they don't get much bigger than this. He's had a typicl "Lloyd" preparation too being sparingly raced. He'll be handy and his last start second in the G1 Australian Cup was superb.

Silent Achiever is impossible to fault this campaign with four wins from four starts including three successive G1's. My concern is the drop in distance and the fact that she has been up for a while. I just wonder how many times they can go to the well with her. In the past she has not coped well with a long preparation. She must be included in all exotics though.

It's a Dundeel is drawn to get the gun run just behind the leaders and his form this time in has been sound if not spectacular. I just query if he has the dash to sprint quickly at the end of this because he hasn't shown that customary brilliance this prep and he is dropping from the 2400m back to the 2000m. Silent Achiever has safely held him at their last two meetings.

It means I've done the unthinkable and left the Waller quintet out of my top four but I have my reasons. The wide barriers force most of them to go back in a race I believe won't be run to suit backmarkers. Sacred Falls and Royal Descent won't be getting a bog track like they did last weekend. I also think this is a deeper race than the G1 Doncaster. Boban is a question mark at 2000m and he is not going well enough in my opinion. Hawkspur is his best chance for mine.

Locky's Selections

5 Carlton House

4 Green Moon
10 Silent Achiever
2 It's a Dundeel

The Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

17 of the last 20 winners drew a single digit barrier. In the same period only three winners returned more than $16. Yet only five favourites have saluted in that time.

Lucia Valentina won the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes (below) in impressive fashion but the double has only been achieved five times in the last 30 years. I have a feeling that the 2400m may test her too because the brilliance of her last start success may be an indication that she is just a very good 2000m horse. I may be wrong but I cat step into 6/4.

Zanbagh contested the same race and was well tried in the ring but you'd have to say disappointing on face value. She did run through the line strongly though and her G1 VRC Oaks second placing last Spring gave every indication the trip is no concern. Wet track is no problem either. Trainer Guy Walter has won this race three times.

Rising Romance struggled in the wet last start but still found the line strongly and her NZ form (which includes a victory over Lucia Valentina) indicates the trip should be no concern. A drying track is amust for her and if she gets it she'll be there when the whips are cracking.

Suavito was well tried last start but got back and wide and never really got into the race. She has form around Solicit in Melbourne which is trong but she's never won beyond 1400m.

Missvonn is the next best for mine. She'll appreciate being back on top of the ground and I think she would have won last start if the ground had not been so inferior adn she hadn't bumped into a superior mudlark in Arabian Gold.

Locky's Selections

1 Zanbagh
3 Rising Romance
2 Lucia Valentina
12 Missvonn

Other bets

Shaumari (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) is the fresh horse on the scene whereas a few of these have had hard preps. He looked impressive winning on debut when he sat wide and charged away in the straight on a wet track. Two Darley horses in the race and #1 stable jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides this bloke - a half-brother to Safeguard. $4.60.

Thump (Randwick Race 4 No. 10) is dropping back to a 3-y-o set weights race after contesting a G1 against older horses last start. It wasn't a bad run - just two and a half lengths behind the likes of Spirit of Boom, Fontelina etc. - and this is much easier. $9.00.

Catkins (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) is the form horse of the Autumn and yet the bookies continue to allow us to get on. Stable and jockey are absolutely flying. Handles all tracks and is strong at the mile with two starts for a win in the G2 Tesio Stakes at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day and a narrow second to Red Tracer in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on Derby Day. She's going even better now. $3.30.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Nash Rawiller followed a treble at Rosehill last weekend with another hat-trick at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. He's already ridden three Group 1 winners this carnival (Silent Achiever twice, Tiger Tees) plus a G2 win on Gallatin and a G3 on Bachman. He's dominated at Randwick during the Autumn in recent years with two wins apiece in G1's such as the T.J. Smith Stakes, Sires Produce Stakes, the Doncaster Mile, Australian Oaks, Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Champagne Stakes.

In somewhat of a rarity he has just four rides at a Randwick tomorrow. Peggy Jean (Race 5 No. 8) 1st $3.80 win / $1.70 place, Gallatin (Race 6 No. 8) 6th, Tiger Tees (Race 7 No. 6) 4th and Royal Descent (Race 8 No. 9) 2nd $3.20 place.

Randwick

The Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Chris Waller. Wow. The First Four in a Doncaster. Four of the last seven winners of the race. The big three G1 mile races this season - Epsom Handicap and Emirates Stakes (Boban) and now the Doncaster (Sacred Falls). Royal Descent looked the winner and is a live chance tomorrow in the G1 Queen Elizabeth. Weary could be next year's Doncaster winner. Hawkspur looks on track for the QE as does the winner Sacred Falls, especially if it's a bog again. Ninth Legion and Hana's Goal were excellent given their dislike for the conditions and their relative runs in transit.

Locky's Selections

18 El Roca (9th)

5 Hawkspur (4th)
4 Sacred Falls (1st) $10.90 win / $3.50 place
7 Speediness (11th)

The T.J. Smith (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Lankan Rupee was dominant despite stepping out on a wet track for the first time and racing the Sydney way of going for the first time too. Led Buffering, Snitzerland and Steps in Time and those three normally wouldn't surrender the lead at gunpoint. Then he had the temerity to kick away at the top of the straight. Top class win. Rebel Dane, Buffering and Tiger Tees were all brave and See the World ran out of his skin. Gordon Lord Byron was OK given the drop and distance. He just got too far back.

Locky's Selections

3 Lankan Rupee (1st) $3.80 win / $2.10 place
16 Zoustar (SCR)
1 Buffering (3rd) $3.10 place
6 Tiger Tees (4th)

Any 2 3-1 $7.40

Other bets

Hippopus (Rosehill Race 4 No. 6) is one I could entertain each-way at double figure odds. His four starts on wet tracks have yielded a second last week to the flying Junoob in the G3 Neville Selwood, a 2nd to Phillipi in last year's G2 Tulloch Stakes, a win at Canterbury (1900m) and a second at Kembla Grange (2400m). He's a VRC St Leger winner at 2800m too. $11.00. 3rd. $1.90 place. Tried hard but the first two were just too good. Backs up tomorrow in the G1 Sydney Cup.

Peggy Jean (Rosehill Race 5 No. 8) bypassed the G1 Golden Slipper to concentrate on this race. Gerald Ryan knows a thing or two about 2-y-o's let me assure you. Handled the heavy track fine when a narrow second last start to subsequent G1 Golden Slipper placegetter Bring Me the Maid. Came from near last that day and gives every indication the 1400m will be no problem. $4.00. 1st $3.80 win / $1.70 place. Gutsy win. Looks a good chance in the G1 Champagne Stakes next week.

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The Championships Week 1 preview

Another bleak week in Sydney with more rain unfortunately. Randwick copped 5mm of rain yesterday on the back of almost another 25mm in the last week. Most of it seems to have cleared but there is the chance of showers tonight and tomorrow. Given the lack of drying conditions I can't see the track improving.

So once again we are looking for the mudlarks. It's a pity because it's a cracking meeting with four Group 1's and almost $10M in prizemoney up for grabs.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Nash Rawiller followed a treble at Rosehill last weekend with another hat-trick at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. He's already ridden three Group 1 winners this carnival (Silent Achiever twice, Tiger Tees) plus a G2 win on Gallatin and a G3 on Bachman. He's dominated at Randwick during the Autumn in recent years with two wins apiece in G1's such as the T.J. Smith Stakes, Sires Produce Stakes, the Doncaster Mile, Australian Oaks, Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Champagne Stakes.

In somewhat of a rarity he has just four rides at a Randwick tommorow. Peggy Jean (Race 5 No. 8), Gallatin (Race 6 No. 8), Tiger Tees (Race 7 No. 6) and Royal Descent (Race 8 No. 9).

Randwick

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. ***

The Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I've been an El Roca fan for some time and I'm not about to drop off now, especially given he gets in with a very light weight. He's been eyeing this race off for a long time and he appears to get through the wet ground. His last start third when he was forced to work hard early in the G1 George Ryder Stakes (below) was a gutsy run and he meets all of them better off at the weights. I'm not overly concerned by the wide draw because there doesn't appear to be a lot of pace in the race and what there is has drawn out so I expect he'll be able to amble across and be in the first six without much effort. Inside may not be the place to be either come Race 8. Glen Boss has won this race five times.

Hawkspur terrifies me. He loves the wet. Chris Waller has won this race twice in the last four years (Rangirangdoo, Sacred Falls) with horses who were dropping back from 2000m. His last three attempts when fourth run into a prep have produced a desperately unlucky fifth in the G1 Turnbull Stakes beaten half a length, a win in the G3 Rough Habit Plate (on a slow track) and his breakthrough maiden win at Newcastle. He's also coming off Group 1 w-f-a form behind Silent Achiever, Boban, It's a Dundeel and Carlton House so 56kg looks a good weight.

Sacred Falls won this race last year on a bog track so he cannot be discounted. He has to carry an extra 3.5kg this year but both runs this prep seem to indicate that this is his major target and that he is coming good at the right time. As mentioned previously I think that the G1 George Ryder Stakes is the form line to follow.

With that in mind Speediness must come into calculations because he meets Sacred Falls, Toydini, Streama and Boban better off at the weights for beating them home in the same race. He has never finished worse than second in three attempts on wet tracks and he's never missed the first four in nine starts at 1600m. Is the inside barrier a plus or minus though?

Royal Descent has to overcome a horror draw but a win wouldn't surprise on a heavy track especially after her blistering run in the G1 Coolmore Classic (below). Messene and Weary are in good form but I just query whether that form is equal to the G1 w-f-a horses. Toydini is a serious worry on a genuinely heavy track. Ditto Boban. Dissident could be competitive if he's bounced back from his G1 Rosehill Guineas failure.

Locky's Selections

18 El Roca

5 Hawkspur
4 Sacred Falls
7 Speediness

The T.J. Smith (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Irish Fling is an early scratching ***

Lankan Rupee has no wet track form but I'm going to gamble on him getting through the ground because he is in career best form. He's had six wins from seven starts since being gelded including the rare double of the G1 Oakleigh Plate and G1 Newmarket Handicap (below). He'll start favourite but is still backable.

Zoustar gets another chance because he pulled up slightly lame following his first-up failure. I'll forgive him that because his only two failures in nine career starts have been fresh whereas he is unbeaten second-up. I've long said I think he is potentially the best horse in the land and his recent barrier trial win on heavy going was impressive.

Buffering can improve second-up too going to the 1200m because I think as an older horse now (he's rising seven) I just think he needs a run under his belt and that they may just be a little too nippy for him at the 1000m. Wet rack form is good.

Tiger Tees has a great wet track record too (6:4-1-0) and is starting to find some form again after seeming to lose the way a bit in his last two preparations. He did get the gun run win the G1 Galaxy (below) but he could get it again tomorrow too. Trainer Joe Pride is having a good Autumn Carnival (Tiger Tees, Steps in Time, Earnest Ernest) and I've already mentioned how well Nash Rawiller is travelling at the moment.

It means I've left Gordon Lord Byron out of my top four but I'm just concerned about the drop back to 1200m because it took him all of the 1500m to get home last start. Snitzerland is always honest and has been good to me but 1200m on a searching track could find her out. Rebel Dane first-up is a big watch for mine.

Locky's Selections

3 Lankan Rupee
16 Zoustar
1 Buffering
6 Tiger Tees

Other bets

Hippopus (Rosehill Race 4 No. 6) is one I could entertain each-way at double figure odds. His four starts on wet tracks have yielded a second last week to the flying Junoob in the G3 Neville Selwood, a 2nd to Phillipi in last year's G2 Tulloch Stakes, a win at Canterbury (1900m) and a second at Kembla Grange (2400m). He's a VRC St Leger winner at 2800m too. $11.00.

Peggy Jean (Rosehill Race 5 No. 8) bypassed the G1 Golden Slipper to concentrate on this race. Gerald Ryan knows a thing or two about 2-y-o's let me assure you. Handled the heavy track fine when a narrow second last start to subsequent G1 Golden Slipper placegetter Bring Me the Maid. Came from near last that day and gives every indication the 1400m will be no problem. $4.00.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Craig Williams has been riding well the last month or so with 15 winners since March 1 including 11 in the last two and half weeks from just 31 rides at a strike rate of better than one in three. His purple patch has included a treble at Moonee Valley, two doubles at Sandown-Hillside (the most recent on Wednesday just gone), a double at Mornington and a surprise G1 last weekend at Rosehill on Gordon Lord Byron. He also rode a treble at Flemington on Australian Guineas Day and a winner today at Geelong. He always seems to come good around carnival time.

He has quite a few rides at Rosehill tomorrow including Let's Make Adeal (Race 6 No. 7) 7th, Marianne (Race 7 No. 3) 10th and Unencumbered (Race 8 No. 1) 10th - the horse Nathan Berry was to have ridden in the feature. 

Rosehill

Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Fillies dominated. Mossfun clearly handled the track better than Earthquake otherwise I think the result would have been reversed. Big runs from Bring Me The Maid, Believe Yourself and Memorial. Oakleigh Girl and Eloping fought on bravely after leading them up. Ghibbelines (8th) was the first colt home - almost seven lengths behind the winner.

Locky's Selections

10 Mossfun (1st) $5.90 win / $2.00 place

9 Earthquake (2nd) $1.80 place
3 Ghibbelines (8th)
11 Oakleigh Girl (6th)

Exacta 10-9 $16.60
Quinella 9-10 $6.20
Any 2 9-10 $3.00

The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)

Silent Achiever is flying. It's a Dundeel looks spot on for the G1 Queen Elizabeth. Fiorente has been retired to stud after suffering a career ending tendon injury. Good G1 Sydney Cup trails from Sertorius, Voleuse de Couers and even Brigantin wasn't too bad.

Locky's Selections

8 It's a Dundeel (2nd) $1.60 place
9 Silent Achiever (1st) $3.80 win / $1.50 place
10 Voleuse de Couers (5th)
1 Fiorente (3rd) $1.60 place

Trifecta 9-8-1 $29.80
Exacta 9-8 $14.50
Quinella 8-9 $7.80
Any 2 9-8 $2.40
Any 2 9-1 $2.20
Any 2 8-1 $3.30

Other bets

Entirely Platinum (Rosehill Race 2 No. 4) has won all three starts this prep and I see no reason why he can't make it four out of four. The stable and the jockey are in great touch (especially when they combine) and he cantered in on a Heavy 9 first-up, albeit in much weaker company. All you can do is win however and this bloke keeps doing it - and the bookies continue to let us get on. $4.00. 4th. Run was full of merit. Did a bit of work early then got flushed out way too soon when the leader Julienas stopped. He was a sitting shot for the swoopers but he battled on gamely.

Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has just got better with each run this campaign as the distances gradually got longer. She's on an Oaks path so the 2000m is no concern and she appears to be right on target following her dominant win at Kembla Grange in the G3 Keith Nolan Classic. At her one start on a Heavy 8 she took on older mares last Spring and trounced them by five lengths over this trip. The wide gate is a worry but they have 400m from the 2000m start before the have to negotiate a bend and I'm prepared to gamble on a bit of Blake Shinn magic which is why we can get $6.50. 5th. Disappointing.

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