Another bleak week in Sydney with more rain unfortunately. Randwick copped 5mm of rain yesterday on the back of almost another 25mm in the last week. Most of it seems to have cleared but there is the chance of showers tonight and tomorrow. Given the lack of drying conditions I can't see the track improving.
So once again we are looking for the mudlarks. It's a pity because it's a cracking meeting with four Group 1's and almost $10M in prizemoney up for grabs.
So once again we are looking for the mudlarks. It's a pity because it's a cracking meeting with four Group 1's and almost $10M in prizemoney up for grabs.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Nash Rawiller followed a treble at Rosehill last weekend with another hat-trick at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. He's already ridden three Group 1 winners this carnival (Silent Achiever twice, Tiger Tees) plus a G2 win on Gallatin and a G3 on Bachman. He's dominated at Randwick during the Autumn in recent years with two wins apiece in G1's such as the T.J. Smith Stakes, Sires Produce Stakes, the Doncaster Mile, Australian Oaks, Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Champagne Stakes.
In somewhat of a rarity he has just four rides at a Randwick tommorow. Peggy Jean (Race 5 No. 8), Gallatin (Race 6 No. 8), Tiger Tees (Race 7 No. 6) and Royal Descent (Race 8 No. 9).
Randwick
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. ***
The Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
I've been an El Roca fan for some time and I'm not about to drop off now, especially given he gets in with a very light weight. He's been eyeing this race off for a long time and he appears to get through the wet ground. His last start third when he was forced to work hard early in the G1 George Ryder Stakes (below) was a gutsy run and he meets all of them better off at the weights. I'm not overly concerned by the wide draw because there doesn't appear to be a lot of pace in the race and what there is has drawn out so I expect he'll be able to amble across and be in the first six without much effort. Inside may not be the place to be either come Race 8. Glen Boss has won this race five times.
Hawkspur terrifies me. He loves the wet. Chris Waller has won this race twice in the last four years (Rangirangdoo, Sacred Falls) with horses who were dropping back from 2000m. His last three attempts when fourth run into a prep have produced a desperately unlucky fifth in the G1 Turnbull Stakes beaten half a length, a win in the G3 Rough Habit Plate (on a slow track) and his breakthrough maiden win at Newcastle. He's also coming off Group 1 w-f-a form behind Silent Achiever, Boban, It's a Dundeel and Carlton House so 56kg looks a good weight.
Sacred Falls won this race last year on a bog track so he cannot be discounted. He has to carry an extra 3.5kg this year but both runs this prep seem to indicate that this is his major target and that he is coming good at the right time. As mentioned previously I think that the G1 George Ryder Stakes is the form line to follow.
With that in mind Speediness must come into calculations because he meets Sacred Falls, Toydini, Streama and Boban better off at the weights for beating them home in the same race. He has never finished worse than second in three attempts on wet tracks and he's never missed the first four in nine starts at 1600m. Is the inside barrier a plus or minus though?
Royal Descent has to overcome a horror draw but a win wouldn't surprise on a heavy track especially after her blistering run in the G1 Coolmore Classic (below). Messene and Weary are in good form but I just query whether that form is equal to the G1 w-f-a horses. Toydini is a serious worry on a genuinely heavy track. Ditto Boban. Dissident could be competitive if he's bounced back from his G1 Rosehill Guineas failure.
Locky's Selections
18 El Roca
5 Hawkspur
4 Sacred Falls
7 Speediness
*** Irish Fling is an early scratching ***
Hippopus (Rosehill Race 4 No. 6) is one I could entertain each-way at double figure odds. His four starts on wet tracks have yielded a second last week to the flying Junoob in the G3 Neville Selwood, a 2nd to Phillipi in last year's G2 Tulloch Stakes, a win at Canterbury (1900m) and a second at Kembla Grange (2400m). He's a VRC St Leger winner at 2800m too. $11.00.
Peggy Jean (Rosehill Race 5 No. 8) bypassed the G1 Golden Slipper to concentrate on this race. Gerald Ryan knows a thing or two about 2-y-o's let me assure you. Handled the heavy track fine when a narrow second last start to subsequent G1 Golden Slipper placegetter Bring Me the Maid. Came from near last that day and gives every indication the 1400m will be no problem. $4.00.
4 Sacred Falls
7 Speediness
The T.J. Smith (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
*** Irish Fling is an early scratching ***
Lankan Rupee has no wet track form but I'm going to gamble on him getting through the ground because he is in career best form. He's had six wins from seven starts since being gelded including the rare double of the G1 Oakleigh Plate and G1 Newmarket Handicap (below). He'll start favourite but is still backable.
Zoustar gets another chance because he pulled up slightly lame following his first-up failure. I'll forgive him that because his only two failures in nine career starts have been fresh whereas he is unbeaten second-up. I've long said I think he is potentially the best horse in the land and his recent barrier trial win on heavy going was impressive.
Buffering can improve second-up too going to the 1200m because I think as an older horse now (he's rising seven) I just think he needs a run under his belt and that they may just be a little too nippy for him at the 1000m. Wet rack form is good.
Tiger Tees has a great wet track record too (6:4-1-0) and is starting to find some form again after seeming to lose the way a bit in his last two preparations. He did get the gun run win the G1 Galaxy (below) but he could get it again tomorrow too. Trainer Joe Pride is having a good Autumn Carnival (Tiger Tees, Steps in Time, Earnest Ernest) and I've already mentioned how well Nash Rawiller is travelling at the moment.
It means I've left Gordon Lord Byron out of my top four but I'm just concerned about the drop back to 1200m because it took him all of the 1500m to get home last start. Snitzerland is always honest and has been good to me but 1200m on a searching track could find her out. Rebel Dane first-up is a big watch for mine.
Locky's Selections
3 Lankan Rupee
16 Zoustar
1 Buffering
6 Tiger Tees
16 Zoustar
1 Buffering
6 Tiger Tees
Other bets
Hippopus (Rosehill Race 4 No. 6) is one I could entertain each-way at double figure odds. His four starts on wet tracks have yielded a second last week to the flying Junoob in the G3 Neville Selwood, a 2nd to Phillipi in last year's G2 Tulloch Stakes, a win at Canterbury (1900m) and a second at Kembla Grange (2400m). He's a VRC St Leger winner at 2800m too. $11.00.
Peggy Jean (Rosehill Race 5 No. 8) bypassed the G1 Golden Slipper to concentrate on this race. Gerald Ryan knows a thing or two about 2-y-o's let me assure you. Handled the heavy track fine when a narrow second last start to subsequent G1 Golden Slipper placegetter Bring Me the Maid. Came from near last that day and gives every indication the 1400m will be no problem. $4.00.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Craig Williams has been riding well the last month or so with 15 winners since March 1 including 11 in the last two and half weeks from just 31 rides at a strike rate of better than one in three. His purple patch has included a treble at Moonee Valley, two doubles at Sandown-Hillside (the most recent on Wednesday just gone), a double at Mornington and a surprise G1 last weekend at Rosehill on Gordon Lord Byron. He also rode a treble at Flemington on Australian Guineas Day and a winner today at Geelong. He always seems to come good around carnival time.
He has quite a few rides at Rosehill tomorrow including Let's Make Adeal (Race 6 No. 7) 7th, Marianne (Race 7 No. 3) 10th and Unencumbered (Race 8 No. 1) 10th - the horse Nathan Berry was to have ridden in the feature.
He has quite a few rides at Rosehill tomorrow including Let's Make Adeal (Race 6 No. 7) 7th, Marianne (Race 7 No. 3) 10th and Unencumbered (Race 8 No. 1) 10th - the horse Nathan Berry was to have ridden in the feature.
Rosehill
Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)
Fillies dominated. Mossfun clearly handled the track better than Earthquake otherwise I think the result would have been reversed. Big runs from Bring Me The Maid, Believe Yourself and Memorial. Oakleigh Girl and Eloping fought on bravely after leading them up. Ghibbelines (8th) was the first colt home - almost seven lengths behind the winner.
Fillies dominated. Mossfun clearly handled the track better than Earthquake otherwise I think the result would have been reversed. Big runs from Bring Me The Maid, Believe Yourself and Memorial. Oakleigh Girl and Eloping fought on bravely after leading them up. Ghibbelines (8th) was the first colt home - almost seven lengths behind the winner.
Locky's Selections
10 Mossfun (1st) $5.90 win / $2.00 place
9 Earthquake (2nd) $1.80 place
3 Ghibbelines (8th)
11 Oakleigh Girl (6th)
Exacta 10-9 $16.60
Quinella 9-10 $6.20
Any 2 9-10 $3.00
Entirely Platinum (Rosehill Race 2 No. 4) has won all three starts this prep and I see no reason why he can't make it four out of four. The stable and the jockey are in great touch (especially when they combine) and he cantered in on a Heavy 9 first-up, albeit in much weaker company. All you can do is win however and this bloke keeps doing it - and the bookies continue to let us get on. $4.00. 4th. Run was full of merit. Did a bit of work early then got flushed out way too soon when the leader Julienas stopped. He was a sitting shot for the swoopers but he battled on gamely.
Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has just got better with each run this campaign as the distances gradually got longer. She's on an Oaks path so the 2000m is no concern and she appears to be right on target following her dominant win at Kembla Grange in the G3 Keith Nolan Classic. At her one start on a Heavy 8 she took on older mares last Spring and trounced them by five lengths over this trip. The wide gate is a worry but they have 400m from the 2000m start before the have to negotiate a bend and I'm prepared to gamble on a bit of Blake Shinn magic which is why we can get $6.50. 5th. Disappointing.
3 Ghibbelines (8th)
11 Oakleigh Girl (6th)
Exacta 10-9 $16.60
Quinella 9-10 $6.20
Any 2 9-10 $3.00
The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)
Silent Achiever is flying. It's a Dundeel looks spot on for the G1 Queen Elizabeth. Fiorente has been retired to stud after suffering a career ending tendon injury. Good G1 Sydney Cup trails from Sertorius, Voleuse de Couers and even Brigantin wasn't too bad.
Locky's Selections
8 It's a Dundeel (2nd) $1.60 place
9 Silent Achiever (1st) $3.80 win / $1.50 place
10 Voleuse de Couers (5th)
1 Fiorente (3rd) $1.60 place
Trifecta 9-8-1 $29.80
Exacta 9-8 $14.50
Quinella 8-9 $7.80
Any 2 9-8 $2.40
Any 2 9-1 $2.20
Any 2 8-1 $3.30
9 Silent Achiever (1st) $3.80 win / $1.50 place
10 Voleuse de Couers (5th)
1 Fiorente (3rd) $1.60 place
Trifecta 9-8-1 $29.80
Exacta 9-8 $14.50
Quinella 8-9 $7.80
Any 2 9-8 $2.40
Any 2 9-1 $2.20
Any 2 8-1 $3.30
Other bets
Entirely Platinum (Rosehill Race 2 No. 4) has won all three starts this prep and I see no reason why he can't make it four out of four. The stable and the jockey are in great touch (especially when they combine) and he cantered in on a Heavy 9 first-up, albeit in much weaker company. All you can do is win however and this bloke keeps doing it - and the bookies continue to let us get on. $4.00. 4th. Run was full of merit. Did a bit of work early then got flushed out way too soon when the leader Julienas stopped. He was a sitting shot for the swoopers but he battled on gamely.
Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has just got better with each run this campaign as the distances gradually got longer. She's on an Oaks path so the 2000m is no concern and she appears to be right on target following her dominant win at Kembla Grange in the G3 Keith Nolan Classic. At her one start on a Heavy 8 she took on older mares last Spring and trounced them by five lengths over this trip. The wide gate is a worry but they have 400m from the 2000m start before the have to negotiate a bend and I'm prepared to gamble on a bit of Blake Shinn magic which is why we can get $6.50. 5th. Disappointing.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Just leave the letter in the basket. I'll read it in a minute.
- Marie Antoinette, Place de la Revolution (France), 16 October 1793
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