Unfortunately tomorrow's Golden Slipper meeting will be held under a pall of sadness following the tragic death of jockey Nathan Berry yesterday at the age of just 23. My thoughts go out to both the Berry and Schofield families at this heartbreaking time.
The Sunday Telegraph, the original sponsor of Race 5, has renamed the race "The Nathan Berry Tulloch Stakes" as a tribute to his short but stellar career.
Brother Tommy, father-in-law Glyn Schofield, brother-in-law Chad Schofield and best mate Christian Reith have all made the decision to push on and ride in Nathan's honour so I am going to push on with the blog for this week even though to some (including myself) it just seems so unimportant when tragedy like this strikes. It really does put things into perspective.
It's been a miserable week weather wise too in Sydney and we face another wet track at Rosehill tomorrow following more than an inch of rain in the last week including a downpour this afternoon.
It made it hard to find winners last week but my quest continues with three Group 1's tomorrow, two Group 2's and four Group 3's on a nine race card where every event carries black type status.
The Sunday Telegraph, the original sponsor of Race 5, has renamed the race "The Nathan Berry Tulloch Stakes" as a tribute to his short but stellar career.
Brother Tommy, father-in-law Glyn Schofield, brother-in-law Chad Schofield and best mate Christian Reith have all made the decision to push on and ride in Nathan's honour so I am going to push on with the blog for this week even though to some (including myself) it just seems so unimportant when tragedy like this strikes. It really does put things into perspective.
It's been a miserable week weather wise too in Sydney and we face another wet track at Rosehill tomorrow following more than an inch of rain in the last week including a downpour this afternoon.
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| The storms that hit Sydney late today |
It made it hard to find winners last week but my quest continues with three Group 1's tomorrow, two Group 2's and four Group 3's on a nine race card where every event carries black type status.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Craig Williams has been riding well the last month or so with 15 winners since March 1 including 11 in the last two and half weeks from just 31 rides at a strike rate of better than one in three. His purple patch has included a treble at Moonee Valley, two doubles at Sandown-Hillside (the most recent on Wednesday just gone), a double at Mornington and a surprise G1 last weekend at Rosehill on Gordon Lord Byron. He also rode a treble at Flemington on Australian Guineas Day and a winner today at Geelong. He always seems to come good around carnival time.
He has quite a few rides at Rosehill tomorrow including Let's Make Adeal (Race 6 No. 7), Marianne (Race 7 No. 3) and Unencumbered (Race 8 No. 1) - the horse Nathan Berry was to have ridden in the feature.
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 6 but that final inspection was made before the afternoon storms hit. The forecast is for a cloudy day tomorrow with isolated showers and the chance of thunderstorms. ***
Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Earthquake has drawn poorly but will still start favourite and it's easy to see why. She's won all four career starts and no-one has got within a length of her to date but all were on dry tracks. Two of the last three favourites have won but Sebring (2008) is the only other top elect to salute since Courtza in 1989. Phelan Ready (16) is the only winner in the last 10 years to draw a double digit barrier.
Mossfun wasn't far behind Earthquake last time out and prior to that she was unbeaten including a four length win on a slow track in the G2 Silver Slipper. She also has the best credentials of any horse in the race here at Rosehill with three starts for two wins and a second. Drawn in the middle of the field so James McDonald has options.
Ghibbelines looks to be finally realising his potential. He had big wraps on him early (being Guelph's little brother) and finally broke through last start for an impressive win. He's drawn to get a good run in transit and nine of the last 10 winners came from barrier eight or inside. he comes via the G2 Todman Stakes, the same lead-up race used by his stablemate Sepoy (2010) and won by Pierro (2011). The fillies form looks stronger though.
Bring Me the Maid has a win at this track and distance to her credit after scoring a good win last weekend in the G2 Magic Night Stakes when she came from well back on a heavy track to score. The seven day backup after a tough run worries me though.
Cornrow has been consistent with four placings in five starts and all were high class races including a third behind Earthquake in the G1 Blue Diamond (below). Sure he hasn't won but he's never been worse than fifth and has been within two or so lengths every time. He gets back and runs on every time so he may be looking for further but he could lob into a minor placing.
Unencumbered would be the fairy tale result. The horse Nathan Berry steered to victory in the Gold Coast Magic Millions and was due to ride in the Slipper if available will surely be the sentimental favourite. He's also a pretty good racehorse with five wins and two placings from eight starts. Unfortunately his only failure was the day he hit a really wet track and he's going to get that again tomorrow.
Oakleigh Girl comes into this off a 12 week break which is an unorthodox preparation to say the least. She is very speedy but is yet to win beyond 1000m although she wasn't far away from Unencumbered at the 1200m of the Magic Millions. She's a regally bred filly being by an Oakleigh Plate winner (Snitzel) out of an Oakleigh Plate winner (Miss Kournikova) and she has won two trails by big margins in readiness for this assignment. Not the worst.
Of the rest Believe Yourself is unbeaten and Gerald Ryan has a knack with these two-year-olds. Alpha Miss has form around Earthquake and Mossfun and has won on slow going. Eloping chased home Earthquake in the Blue Diamond Prelude and has won three of her other four starts including a six length demolition job last start in a $250,000 race at Bendigo. Valentia hasn't done much wrong either and Gai Waterhouse has won this race five times in the last 13 years including the last two in a row. If Tommy Berry can combine with her to go back-to-back there won't be a dry eye in the house.
Locky's Selections
10 Mossfun
9 Earthquake
3 Ghibbelines
11 Oakleigh Girl
*** Green Moon and Mourayan are early scratchings ***
Entirely Platinum (Rosehill Race 2 No. 4) has won all three starts this prep and I see no reason why he can't make it four out of four. The stable and the jockey are in great touch (especially when they combine) and he cantered in on a Heavy 9 first-up, albeit in much weaker company. All you can do is win however and this bloke keeps doing it - and the bookies continue to let us get on. $4.00.
Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has just got better with each run this campaign as the distances gradually got longer. She's on an Oaks path so the 2000m is no concern and she appears to be right on target following her dominant win at Kembla Grange in the G3 Keith Nolan Classic. At her one start on a Heavy 8 she took on older mares last Spring and trounced them by five lengths over this trip. The wide gate is a worry but they have 400m from the 2000m start before the have to negotiate a bend and I'm prepared to gamble on a bit of Blake Shinn magic which is why we can get $6.50.
3 Ghibbelines
11 Oakleigh Girl
The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)
*** Green Moon and Mourayan are early scratchings ***
Fiorente looks like coming up favourite despite his dismal last start effort in the G1 Ranvet Stakes (below). That was his only bad run since coming to Australia so I'm prepared to forgive him because we all have bad days from time to time. I can't back him to win at that price off that run but he will be in my exotics. Won a 2400m race at Newmarket on slow ground (beating Joshua Tree!) but that was 21 months ago.
It's a Dundeel ran past a couple in the straight in the same race (Fiorente was one of them) and the first two around the corner were the first two home on that occasion so perhaps the run wasn't that bad. Has a wet track win to his credit (over Atlantic Jewel in the G1 Underwood no less) and this time last year he trotted in to win the G1 ATC Derby by panels over this same trip. That race was run at Randwick however and against his own age at set weights.
Silent Achiever is the form horse and it's hard to knock her because she's strung three on end now including a G1 Ranvet Stakes where she safely held many of these. My concern is she hasn't won at a mile and a half for more than two years despite several attempts but the wet track does bring her right into the equation (4:2-1-0). Having said that she was only narrowly beaten in this race last year and was just two and a half lengths behind Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Cup.
Voleuse de Couers is another who will appreciate the rain because she's four from eight on affected ground but only one from seven on good tracks. She's another who will love the mile and a half because all five of her wins have been at 2300m+. I also really like the way she closed off the Australian Cup (below).
Sertorius was OK in the G1 Ranvet and he has two wins on slow/heavy tracks but I just query if he is a genuine G1 w-f-a galloper. There have been a few upsets in this race in the last dozen years though by horses we thought mightn't be up to it - Cedarberg, Littorio, Fiumicino, Blutigeroo, Freemason and Curata Storm.
Locky's Selections
8 It's a Dundeel
9 Silent Achiever
10 Voleuse de Couers
1 Fiorente
9 Silent Achiever
10 Voleuse de Couers
1 Fiorente
Other bets
Entirely Platinum (Rosehill Race 2 No. 4) has won all three starts this prep and I see no reason why he can't make it four out of four. The stable and the jockey are in great touch (especially when they combine) and he cantered in on a Heavy 9 first-up, albeit in much weaker company. All you can do is win however and this bloke keeps doing it - and the bookies continue to let us get on. $4.00.
Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has just got better with each run this campaign as the distances gradually got longer. She's on an Oaks path so the 2000m is no concern and she appears to be right on target following her dominant win at Kembla Grange in the G3 Keith Nolan Classic. At her one start on a Heavy 8 she took on older mares last Spring and trounced them by five lengths over this trip. The wide gate is a worry but they have 400m from the 2000m start before the have to negotiate a bend and I'm prepared to gamble on a bit of Blake Shinn magic which is why we can get $6.50.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
To put it simply - jockey James McDonald is flying.
He has ridden 18 winners in the last 21 days at a strike rate just a bit better than one in four.
He has a full book at Rosehill tomorrow but his best rides appear to be Junoob (Race 1 No. 2) SCR, Villa Verde (Race 6 No. 9) 3rd $2.80 place and Savvy Nature (Race 8 No. 5) 4th.
He has ridden 18 winners in the last 21 days at a strike rate just a bit better than one in four.
He has a full book at Rosehill tomorrow but his best rides appear to be Junoob (Race 1 No. 2) SCR, Villa Verde (Race 6 No. 9) 3rd $2.80 place and Savvy Nature (Race 8 No. 5) 4th.
Rosehill
George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)
Gordon Lord Byron was the top rated horse in the race and he won. Missed the obvious. Speediness handled the wet track better than most including noted mudlarks Sacred Falls, Red Tracer and Eurozone. El Roca tried hard against older horses on a surface I don't think really suited him.
Locky's Selections
4 Sacred Falls (4th)
14 El Roca (3rd) $2.90 place
12 Red Tracer (10th)
15 Eurozone (15th)
Opinion (Rosehill Race 1 No. 3) has great wet track credentials and thrashed joint favourite Junoob the last time they met on severely affected ground. $3.10. 2nd. $1.40 place. Winner too good.
Temple of Boom (Rosehill Race 6 No. 6) is another who loves the wet. Won this race two years ago and his first-up effort was OK because he just couldn't go with them early over the 1000m and yet still wasn't far away at the end. The step up to 1100m appeals. $8.00. 6th. Every possible chance.
Knead the Dough (Rosehill Race 9 No. 13) is a fantastic each-way bet given his great form in the mud. $11.00. 12th. Poor.
12 Red Tracer (10th)
15 Eurozone (15th)
Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
The winner Criterion was far too good and will be the Derby favourite and deservedly so. Craig Newitt reported Teronado did not handle the wet track but that he felt like he was on the winner at the top of the straight. Thunder Fantasy was solid and Savvy Nature improved on a wet track. Saddle slipped on Puccini so that may be a forgive run and Dissident was average.
Locky's Selections
9 Teronado (3rd) $2.80 place
2 Dissident (6th)
4 Puccini (12th)
5 Savvy Nature (4th)
2 Dissident (6th)
4 Puccini (12th)
5 Savvy Nature (4th)
Other bets
Opinion (Rosehill Race 1 No. 3) has great wet track credentials and thrashed joint favourite Junoob the last time they met on severely affected ground. $3.10. 2nd. $1.40 place. Winner too good.
Temple of Boom (Rosehill Race 6 No. 6) is another who loves the wet. Won this race two years ago and his first-up effort was OK because he just couldn't go with them early over the 1000m and yet still wasn't far away at the end. The step up to 1100m appeals. $8.00. 6th. Every possible chance.
Knead the Dough (Rosehill Race 9 No. 13) is a fantastic each-way bet given his great form in the mud. $11.00. 12th. Poor.
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