Sydney has been inundated with rain this week and the Rosehill track has copped more than 50mm in the last 7 days so look for those who can handle the sting out of the ground.
An abbreviated blog this week as I am away on holidays.
An abbreviated blog this week as I am away on holidays.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
To put it simply - jockey James McDonald is flying.
He has ridden 18 winners in the last 21 days at a strike rate just a bit better than one in four.
He has a full book at Rosehill tomorrow but his best rides appear to be Junoob (Race 1 No. 2), Villa Verde (Race 6 No. 9) and and Savvy Nature (Race 8 No. 5).
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 9. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of showers. ***
George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Only four favourites have saluted in the last 12 years but having said that nine of the winners paid $7.50 or less. The other three, although double figure odds, were well in commission and highly rated gallopers. (Metal Bender $15, Rangirangdoo $15, Vision and Power $11). Four of the last eight winners were three-year-olds. No mare has won since 1986 but that stat may be flawed because this race used to be run on the same day as the G1 Queen of the Turf.
Sacred Falls won the G1 Doncaster Handicap last year on a bog track and beat Pierro in the process. That'll do me. El Roca loomed to win last start but that missed run over 1400m probably told. He will be fitter for that. Red Tracer is an absolute duck but the query is a strong 1500m versus the boys. Eurozone loves the sting out of the ground and wasn't too far behind El Roca and Dissident in the G1 Randwick Guineas.
Locky's Selections
4 Sacred Falls
14 El Roca
12 Red Tracer
15 Eurozone
*** Late charge is an early scratching ***
11 of the last 12 winners paid $8 or less with the only exception being De Beers at $17 in 2006 so we really need to be focusing on the pointy end of the market.
Opinion (Rosehill Race 1 No. 3) has great wet track credentials and thrashed joint favourite Junoob the last time they met on severely affected ground. $3.10.
Temple of Boom (Rosehill Race 6 No. 6) is another who loves the wet. Won this race two years ago and his first-up effort was OK because he just couldn't go with them early over the 1000m and yet still wasn't far away at the end. The step up to 1100m appeals. $8.00.
Knead the Dough (Rosehill Race 9 No. 13) is a fantastic each-way bet given his great form in the mud. $11.00.
12 Red Tracer
15 Eurozone
Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** Late charge is an early scratching ***
11 of the last 12 winners paid $8 or less with the only exception being De Beers at $17 in 2006 so we really need to be focusing on the pointy end of the market.
I have to stick with my old mate Teronado here because I've been on him all along. Dissident has finally broken through for a couple of wins and can go on with it. The Kiwi Puccini has to be respected and Savvy Nature can improve on a wet track.
Locky's Selections
9 Teronado
2 Dissident
4 Puccini
5 Savvy Nature
2 Dissident
4 Puccini
5 Savvy Nature
Other bets
Opinion (Rosehill Race 1 No. 3) has great wet track credentials and thrashed joint favourite Junoob the last time they met on severely affected ground. $3.10.
Temple of Boom (Rosehill Race 6 No. 6) is another who loves the wet. Won this race two years ago and his first-up effort was OK because he just couldn't go with them early over the 1000m and yet still wasn't far away at the end. The step up to 1100m appeals. $8.00.
Knead the Dough (Rosehill Race 9 No. 13) is a fantastic each-way bet given his great form in the mud. $11.00.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
In the last 10 days Peter Moody has trained doubles at Kyneton, Bendigo, Randwick and Yarra Glen.
He has just the two runners at Rosehill tomorrow in Flamberge (Race 1 No. 2) 4th and A Time for Julia (Race 7 No. 11) 4th. He also has quite a few runners in Melbourne too.
Also had Office Bearer (Sandwon Race 6 No. 10) 1st $9.00 win / $2.90 place.
He has just the two runners at Rosehill tomorrow in Flamberge (Race 1 No. 2) 4th and A Time for Julia (Race 7 No. 11) 4th. He also has quite a few runners in Melbourne too.
Also had Office Bearer (Sandwon Race 6 No. 10) 1st $9.00 win / $2.90 place.
Rosehill
Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares quality handicap)
Jim Cassidy take a bow. Sweet Idea, Catkins and A Time for Julia tried to run down Steps in Time but couldn't.
Locky's Selections
11 A Time for Julia (4th)
1 Catkins (3rd) $2.10 place
8 Sharnee Rose (7th)
4 Steps in Time (1st) $10.00 win / $4.00 place
Any 2 4-1 $9.30
Va Pensiero (Rosehill Race 1 No. 4) has won his last two two first-up appearances including the G3 San Domenico last Spring. The following start he won the G3 Run to the Rose beating Dissident. Two wins here at Rosehill next to his name including one at the 1100m. $10 appeals on an each-way basis. 2nd. $2.30 place. Winner led all the way and this bloke chased hard but just couldn't get there.
Let's Make Adeal (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6) wasn't far away in the G1 Australian Cup (below) and only Fiorente and Foreteller ran a faster final 1000m. They're going around in the G1 Ranvet whereas this girl gets the easier G3 assignment. Worth a tickle each-way at the $7. 4th. Looking for further now.
Monton (Rosehill Race 6 No. 2) continues the each-way theme and at $16 why not? His last five runs have been full of merit with three wins and a third placing when he also should have won. He was only three lengths away last start in the G1 Chipping Norton behind the likes of Boban, It's a Dundeel, Hawkspur and Moriarty. That's good enough form for a gamble here despite the presence of some nice types who will make it tough. 5th. May have run third but for a bump at the top of the straight.
1 Catkins (3rd) $2.10 place
8 Sharnee Rose (7th)
4 Steps in Time (1st) $10.00 win / $4.00 place
Any 2 4-1 $9.30
Ranvet Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Slow tempo early made it impossible for anything back to run them down but Fiorente was still disappointing and It's a Dundeel just so-so.
Locky's Selections
2 It's a Dundeel (3rd) $1.40 place
1 Fiorente (7th)
3 Foreteller (8th)
4 Hawkspur (4th)
1 Fiorente (7th)
3 Foreteller (8th)
4 Hawkspur (4th)
Other bets
Va Pensiero (Rosehill Race 1 No. 4) has won his last two two first-up appearances including the G3 San Domenico last Spring. The following start he won the G3 Run to the Rose beating Dissident. Two wins here at Rosehill next to his name including one at the 1100m. $10 appeals on an each-way basis. 2nd. $2.30 place. Winner led all the way and this bloke chased hard but just couldn't get there.
Let's Make Adeal (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6) wasn't far away in the G1 Australian Cup (below) and only Fiorente and Foreteller ran a faster final 1000m. They're going around in the G1 Ranvet whereas this girl gets the easier G3 assignment. Worth a tickle each-way at the $7. 4th. Looking for further now.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
I knew I should have installed Satnav.
- Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, somewhere over the Gulf of Thailand, 8 March 2014
- Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, somewhere over the Gulf of Thailand, 8 March 2014
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