With the Melbourne Autumn Carnival behind us all attention now swings to Sydney and that usually means one thing - look out for Gai Waterhouse. Particularly seeing we are at Randwick.
The G1 Randwick Guineas has not been kind to Gai with just one win for Tulloch Lodge from 18 starters in the race over the last 20 years. They have a few solid chances tomorrow in Bull Point, Romantic Touch and Woodbine but meet stiff opposition in the form of El Roca, Eurozone, Dissident, Atlante, Criterion, Savvy Nature and Teronado.
Waterhouse doesn't have a runner in the G1 Canterbury Stakes - a race she has won the last three years running and six times overall. This year's renewal is dominated by Chris Waller's four-pronged attack with Zoustar, Red Tracer, Sacred Falls and My Kingdom of Fife and Guy Walter's trio Appearance, Streama and Toydini.
The G2 Challenge Stakes shapes as a speedfest with reigning champ Snitzerland and three time Group 1 winner Buffering sure to lead them a merry dance.
The two juvenile races could provide an insight into next month's Golden Slipper. Dance Hero won the Skyline Stakes in 2004 before claiming the nation's richest two-year-old race while Crystal Lily (2010) and Ha Ha (2001) won the Sweet Embrace before doing same. The winners of the 2009 editions (Manhattan Rain & Headway) both went on to place behind Phelan Ready.
It doesn't stop there with Bendigo hosting a stand alone Saturday metro meeting highlighted by two $150,000 Listed races in the Golden Mile and the Bendigo Guineas.
The action continues next week with the G3 Newcastle Newmarket on Wednesday followed by the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley next Friday night.
I think I will need a cup of tea and a lie down after all that.
The G1 Randwick Guineas has not been kind to Gai with just one win for Tulloch Lodge from 18 starters in the race over the last 20 years. They have a few solid chances tomorrow in Bull Point, Romantic Touch and Woodbine but meet stiff opposition in the form of El Roca, Eurozone, Dissident, Atlante, Criterion, Savvy Nature and Teronado.
The G2 Challenge Stakes shapes as a speedfest with reigning champ Snitzerland and three time Group 1 winner Buffering sure to lead them a merry dance.
The two juvenile races could provide an insight into next month's Golden Slipper. Dance Hero won the Skyline Stakes in 2004 before claiming the nation's richest two-year-old race while Crystal Lily (2010) and Ha Ha (2001) won the Sweet Embrace before doing same. The winners of the 2009 editions (Manhattan Rain & Headway) both went on to place behind Phelan Ready.
It doesn't stop there with Bendigo hosting a stand alone Saturday metro meeting highlighted by two $150,000 Listed races in the Golden Mile and the Bendigo Guineas.
The action continues next week with the G3 Newcastle Newmarket on Wednesday followed by the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley next Friday night.
I think I will need a cup of tea and a lie down after all that.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
James McDonald may have just missed on It's a Dundeel last Saturday but he did get some consolation by claiming the last aboard Entirely Platinum. He followed that up with another win for Team Hawkes when Messene won the Listed National Sprint at Canberra on Black Opal Day last Sunday. It didn't stop there with a double the following day at Kembla Grange and a winner at Canterbury on Wednesday and Hawkesbury yesterday.
He has a full book of rides at Randwick tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Gold Force (Race 1 No. 1), Junoob (Race 3 No. 7), Savvy Nature (Race 7 No. 6) and Not Listenin'tome (Race 8 No. 10).
Randwick
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 6. The forecast is for isolated showers from early tomorrow afternoon. ***
Randwick Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Since this race (previously known as the Canterbury Guineas) shifted to Randwick and a mile in 2006 only one winner has returned more than $7. In those eight years four favourites have won and two placed. Five of the last six winners drew barrier five or inside. Several of the main hopes have fared poorly in the barrier draw namely Romantic Touch (15), El Roca (14), Dissident (13) and Woodbine (11).
The traditional lead-up to this event is the G2 Haboartville Stakes won by Dissident a fortnight ago. Outside the winner the two eye catchers were Atlante (picked himself up again after looking gone) and Savvy Nature (first-up). Woodbine was just OK but keep in mind that was run on a Slow 7. Does that mean we overlook the poor runs of Romantic Touch and Koroibete?
That was the race marred by the controversial scratching of El Roca who was then forced to run last week against older horses in the G3 Liverpool City Cup. He couldn't match Terravista's turn of foot but he was coming again on the line and back to his own age and up to a mile looks ideal.
The other major form line is the Australian Guineas. Out of that race I thought Criterion (strong through the line) and Teronado (got too far back, best closing sectionals) were the best runs. Eurozone appeared to have every possible chance as did Late Charge and Rock Hero.
Bull Point is the hard one to get a line through because he's come via the G1 Futurity Stakes. He started favourite and on face value you'd have to say he was disappointing but let's not forget he was having just his eighth career start and at the finish was less than a length and a half behind seasoned older gallopers like Moment of Change, Sertorius and Pinwheel.
I'm banking on El Roca getting through the wet track and overcoming the wide gate. Bull Point and Eurozone have solid w-f-a form and handle all surfaces. Teronado the best roughie for exotics.
Competitive race.
Locky's Selections
2 El Roca
7 Bull Point
5 Eurozone
12 Teronado
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Any Day Will Do (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) took on some good mares last weekend in the likes of Catkins, Sharnee Rose, Dear Demi and Fire Up Fifi and has obviously come through the run well because they are backing her up tomorrow. This is a much easier race than that and she will appreciate stepping up to the 1600m – a distance at which she has two wins and a second from three attempts including last November’s Goulburn Cup. A really wet track would be a concern however. $7.00.
A Time for Julia (Randwick Race 6 No. 6) looked good winning fresh than beat all bar the talented Red Tracer last time out in the G2 Millie Fox Stakes. She is a lightly raced, talented young mare on an upward spiral in a race where there doesn’t appear to be any world beaters. Well placed on the 55kg minimum. $3.80.
7 Bull Point
5 Eurozone
12 Teronado
Canterbury Stakes (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
In the 11 years since Shogun Lodge claimed this race at $21 in 2001 seven favourites have saluted and no winner has paid more than $5.50. Four of those were three-year-olds. This is however the first time the race has been run at Randwick.
Quite a few here with no tactical speed so expect Appearance, My Kingdom of Fife, Sacred Falls, Toydini and Zoustar all to get back. Rain Affair leads. Red Tracer, Streama and Not Listenin'tome all handy. Speediness probably just off them.
I'm sticking with Zoustar because as long time followers will know I think he could be the best horse in the land. Jim Cassidy has won this race four times so that's a big plus. Red Tracer will appreciate the soft track and being second-up. Not Listenin'tome is an exciting young horse on the rise and Appearance just keeps winning although I'm a bit concerned about the drop back in trip and the interrupted prep.
Locky's Selections
9 Zoustar
8 Red Tracer
10 Not Listenin'tome
6 Appearance
*** There are no early scratchings ***
8 Red Tracer
10 Not Listenin'tome
6 Appearance
Challenge Stakes (Group 2, 1000m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Snitzerland won this race last year at Warwick Farm and set a track record in the process. Last Spring she gave Lankan Rupee 2.5kg in a race down the Flemington straight and was just beaten. Her first-up win in the G1 Lightning was superb. That'll do me.
Buffering is the only danger for mine but I don't think 1000m first-up suits. I think he'll be better in four weeks in the G1 T.J. Smith. I think the one run the mare has under her belt will be his undoing. Having said that he's only been beaten once from four attempts at 1000m (3rd in the G1 Lightning behind Black Caviar and Hay List!) and he's only been beaten twice from eight attempts first-up - the aforementioned G1 Lightning and a second to Samaready in the G1 Moir last Spring.
I couldn't possibly back anything else to win. The best roughies if the track is wet are Temple of Boom and Tiger Tees.
Locky's Selections
7 Snitzerland
1 Buffering
5 Temple of Boom
6 Tiger Tees
1 Buffering
5 Temple of Boom
6 Tiger Tees
Other bets
Any Day Will Do (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) took on some good mares last weekend in the likes of Catkins, Sharnee Rose, Dear Demi and Fire Up Fifi and has obviously come through the run well because they are backing her up tomorrow. This is a much easier race than that and she will appreciate stepping up to the 1600m – a distance at which she has two wins and a second from three attempts including last November’s Goulburn Cup. A really wet track would be a concern however. $7.00.
A Time for Julia (Randwick Race 6 No. 6) looked good winning fresh than beat all bar the talented Red Tracer last time out in the G2 Millie Fox Stakes. She is a lightly raced, talented young mare on an upward spiral in a race where there doesn’t appear to be any world beaters. Well placed on the 55kg minimum. $3.80.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)
Boban bounced back to form with Glyn Schofield back in the saddle. It's a Dundeel may have won if held up for a bit longer. Good to see Hawkspur back to his best.
Mick Price has had 12 winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of nearly one winner for every three runners.
He has some strong chances tomorrow including Lankan Rupee (Flemington Race 6 No. 2) 1st $6.00 win / $2.50 place, Samaready (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) 6th and across the border he has Justthewayyouare (Morphettville Race 2 No. 6) 2nd $1.50 place.
Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Fiorente just continues to impress. Green Moon was brave in defeat. Foreteller looks set for back-to-back G1 Ranvet Stakes.
Locky's Selections
He has some strong chances tomorrow including Lankan Rupee (Flemington Race 6 No. 2) 1st $6.00 win / $2.50 place, Samaready (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) 6th and across the border he has Justthewayyouare (Morphettville Race 2 No. 6) 2nd $1.50 place.
Flemington
Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Fiorente just continues to impress. Green Moon was brave in defeat. Foreteller looks set for back-to-back G1 Ranvet Stakes.
Locky's Selections
1 Fiorente (1st) $2.10 win / $1.30 place
4 Foreteller (3rd) $2.30 place
8 Shamus Award (6th)
5 Star Rolling (9th)
Any 2 1-4 $4.30
4 Foreteller (3rd) $2.30 place
8 Shamus Award (6th)
5 Star Rolling (9th)
Any 2 1-4 $4.30
Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)
Lankan Rupee was dominant and is a live chance in anything he contests. Hard to make excuses for the rest.
Locky's Selections
2 Lankan Rupee (1st) $6.00 win / $2.50 place
9 Unpretentious (4th)
4 Shamexpress (6th)
3 Samaready (9th)
9 Unpretentious (4th)
4 Shamexpress (6th)
3 Samaready (9th)
Warwick Farm
Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)
Boban bounced back to form with Glyn Schofield back in the saddle. It's a Dundeel may have won if held up for a bit longer. Good to see Hawkspur back to his best.
Locky's Selections
3 Hawkspur (3rd) $3.00 place
1 It's a Dundeel (2nd) $1.20 place
5 Monton (4th)
4 Moriarty (5th)
Any 2 1-3 $4.80
Fire Up Fifi (Warwick Farm Race 4 No. 3) has had 12 career wins and eight of them have come on rain affected tracks. She's won three times second-up including last prep when she claimed the G2 Blazer Stakes at Flemington beating Catkins. A high class mare who was competitive against the likes of Red Tracer in the Spring before narrowly missing a G1 in Perth when just edged out in the Railway Stakes. At $7 I think she is an each-way pinch. 5th.
Arabian Gold (Warwick Farm Race 7 No. 7) is in a tough race against some talented fillies but I will be having a tickle each-way at the $17 on offer. She's three from three on slow/heavy ground and unbeaten in two second-up runs. She finished better than anything last start in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes and the step up to 1400m is a big plus. 8th.
1 It's a Dundeel (2nd) $1.20 place
5 Monton (4th)
4 Moriarty (5th)
Any 2 1-3 $4.80
Other bets
Fire Up Fifi (Warwick Farm Race 4 No. 3) has had 12 career wins and eight of them have come on rain affected tracks. She's won three times second-up including last prep when she claimed the G2 Blazer Stakes at Flemington beating Catkins. A high class mare who was competitive against the likes of Red Tracer in the Spring before narrowly missing a G1 in Perth when just edged out in the Railway Stakes. At $7 I think she is an each-way pinch. 5th.
Arabian Gold (Warwick Farm Race 7 No. 7) is in a tough race against some talented fillies but I will be having a tickle each-way at the $17 on offer. She's three from three on slow/heavy ground and unbeaten in two second-up runs. She finished better than anything last start in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes and the step up to 1400m is a big plus. 8th.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
That's not a bad drop.
- Grigori Rasputin, Yusopov Palace, 17 December 1916
- Grigori Rasputin, Yusopov Palace, 17 December 1916
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