A massive week of racing ahead with three Group 1's tomorrow, the Black Opal meeting in Canberra on Sunday followed by the Adelaide Cup on Monday and the G2 Alister Clarke Stakes at Moonee Valley next Friday.
The downside is the wet track at Warwick Farm with Sydney inundated with rain in the last week and a half.
The downside is the wet track at Warwick Farm with Sydney inundated with rain in the last week and a half.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Mick Price has had 12 winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of nearly one winner for every three runners.
He has some strong chances tomorrow including Lankan Rupee (Flemington Race 6 No. 2), Samaready (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) and across the border he has Justthewayyouare (Morphettville Race 2 No. 6).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for isolated showers in the morning but a mostly sunny afternoon. ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Fiorente is hard to knock. Every single start he has had in this country has been good. Defied the tempo to circle the field and win last start. Hard to see any of them turning it around. If I had to look for a negative it could be that he had a gutbuster over 1800m first-up after almost 16 weeks off the scene and that could flatten him second-up. Also, do we read anything into the fact that the second horse was $151 and hadn't won since last year's Sydney Cup?
Shamus Award won the Cox Plate (below) beating Fiorente (3rd), Foreteller (4th) and Green Moon (9th) but this time around they meet him 5kg better off and I doubt Star Rolling will let him have a soft lead like he got away with that day. He is extremely consistent though and he does seem to rise for the big occasion.
Thunder Fantasy chased Shamus Award home last week and he gave the impression that the further they go the better he'll get so the 2000m holds no fears. Trainer almost pinched this race last year with another three-year-old in Fiveandahalfstar.
Foreteller had better closing splits than Fiorente in the Peter Young but he just got too far back in a dawdling affair. He has been a bit of a giant killer in the past with upset wins in the Makybe Diva Stakes ($15), Ranvet ($31), last year's Peter Young ($14) and the Coongy ($10). A major player.
Stewards have been advised that Green Moon will be ridden "in a positive position" and that the intent with stablemate Mourayan will be to be positive and "be forward or lead". They both went great first-up and Macedon Lodge does make a habit of winning these big Flemington Group 1's. I've got neither in my top four but I'm wary of both.
Star Rolling is two from two at the Flemington 2000m and he nearly pinched the G2 Peter Young Stakes from the front when allowed to dictate in the lead. If he gets a similar run in transit tomorrow he'll give them something to chase down but I doubt that will be the case.
Locky's Selections
1 Fiorente
4 Foreteller
8 Shamus Award
5 Star Rolling
*** There are no early scratchings ***
4 Foreteller
8 Shamus Award
5 Star Rolling
Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
No need to shy away from backing topweights in this race with seven of the last 10 winners carrying 55kg or more. Only three horses have paid more than $5.50 in that same period so horses at the pointy end of the market have dominated. Eight three-year-olds have won the race in the last 15 years including five of the last 10.
Shamexpress won this race last year beating Moment of Change by a short head and meets him 4kg worse off this year. Only Razor Sharp (1982-83) has won this race back-to-back in the last 50 years.
Lankan Rupee is hard to fault. He's won five from six since being gelded including a G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) in devastating fashion and a victory over Snitzerland down the straight here at Flemington in the Spring.
Samaready is poorly in at the weights compared to last time out in the G1 Lightning Stakes. She chased Shamexpress home on that day and meets him 2kg worse off. Pago Rock and Unpretentious were right on her heels and they meet her 5kg better off.
Moment of Change couldn't win last year with 56.5kg and will have to carry 1.5kg more this year but he is in much better form. He'd have to be a good horse to do it because the only others to carry 58kg or more and win in the last 55 years are Black Caviar, Hay List and Shaftesbury Avenue.
Knoydart is another who has really turned the corner since being gelded. He just got too far back at Caulfield but he was one of the best closers and the step to 1200m will help. An unknown quantity down the Flemington straight however.
Unpretentious is the best rough chance for mine. He's not a first-up horse and he's not a 1000m horse and he's not a w-f-a horse so his run in the G1 Lightning (below) was full of merit. Second-up at 1200m at Flemington is ideal now that he's back to handicap conditions and down in the weights. He meets Samaready 5kg better off and Shamexpress 3kg. Barrier 14 is good for him because he should be able to find clear running room when he needs it.
Spirit of Boom meets Lankan Rupee 1.5kg better off for his one and a quarter length defeat in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. The worry is that although he's been placed five times at Flemington in eight starts here he has never won.
Bernabeu apparently didn't handle the wettish track in the G1 Lightning so it may pay to overlook that failure. You'd have to be a very forgiving type because he was beaten 12 lengths. Lightly weighted three-year-olds do have a good recent record however - think Shamexpress, Wanted and Alinghi.
Fontelina has won the last two G2 Salinger Stakes over the "straight six" course here at Flemington on Derby Day. He hasn't run a place in his five other starts here and his first-up run in the Spring over this course was only so-so.
This could end up being one for the "swoopers" with Moment of Change, Bernabeu and Va Pensiero sure to inject plenty of early speed into the race.
Track specialist : Flamberge (5:3-1-0) * 2 from 2 at 1200m
Best first-up : Va Pensiero (3:2-0-0)
Best second-up : Samaready (2:2-0-0)
Locky's Selections
2 Lankan Rupee
9 Unpretentious
4 Shamexpress
3 Samaready
9 Unpretentious
4 Shamexpress
3 Samaready
Warwick Farm
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 6. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with isolated showers. ***
Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
It's a Dundeel scored one of his biggest wins here at the Warwick Farm 1600m when he claimed the G1 Randwick Guineas (below) this time last year defeating subsequent G1 winners Rebel Dane (Rupert Clarke) and Sacred Falls (Doncaster). He's been unplaced his last two first-up runs but both were at 1400m and both were high quality races. Looked good winning a recent Randwick trial by two lengths so he's obviously been tuned up for this.
Boban is racing like a horse who is looking for further and that may well be the case given the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) is worth $4M this year. He isn't dashing at the end of his races the way he did in the Spring and the wet track is a concern too so I couldn't possibly be enticed to take the short odds on offer. Particularly seeing Moriarty gave him a cold last time out.
Hawkspur is the best wet tracker in the race and last prep his best performance came second-up when he blitzed them over the mile at Randwick in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes. May pay to forgive his first-up failure because he was ridden outside of his comfort zone. Back to Sydney a plus.
Moriarty won third run into his last campaign but that was at 2000m. His record at 1600m is good with three wins and a second from just six attempts but he was safely held (four lengths) by Hawkspur in the aforementioned Chelmsford Stakes at his last try. His last start third from a clear last was enormous after taking a while to obtain clear running in the straight.
Monton is absolutely flying and got us the chocolates a fortnight ago despite having to lump 61.5kg. Probably should have won his last four with even luck. Wouldn't want the track any worse than dead. Big class rise.
Best wet tracker : Hawkspur (5:2-2-0)
Warwick Farm 1600m specialist : Monton (4:2-1-0)
Locky's Selections
3 Hawkspur
1 It's a Dundeel
5 Monton
4 Moriarty
Fire Up Fifi (Warwick Farm Race 4 No. 3) has had 12 career wins and eight of them have come on rain affected tracks. She's won three times second-up including last prep when she claimed the G2 Blazer Stakes at Flemington beating Catkins. A high class mare who was competitive against the likes of Red Tracer in the Spring before narrowly missing a G1 in Perth when just edged out in the Railway Stakes. At $7 I think she is an each-way pinch.
Arabian Gold (Warwick Farm Race 7 No. 7) is in a tough race against some talented fillies but I will be having a tickle each-way at the $17 on offer. She's three from three on slow/heavy ground and unbeaten in two second-up runs. She finished better than anything last start in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes and the step up to 1400m is a big plus.
1 It's a Dundeel
5 Monton
4 Moriarty
Other bets
Fire Up Fifi (Warwick Farm Race 4 No. 3) has had 12 career wins and eight of them have come on rain affected tracks. She's won three times second-up including last prep when she claimed the G2 Blazer Stakes at Flemington beating Catkins. A high class mare who was competitive against the likes of Red Tracer in the Spring before narrowly missing a G1 in Perth when just edged out in the Railway Stakes. At $7 I think she is an each-way pinch.
Arabian Gold (Warwick Farm Race 7 No. 7) is in a tough race against some talented fillies but I will be having a tickle each-way at the $17 on offer. She's three from three on slow/heavy ground and unbeaten in two second-up runs. She finished better than anything last start in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes and the step up to 1400m is a big plus.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Team Hawkes has been on fire over the last 10 days. On February 19 they had a two state double (Sandown/Warwick Farm) and they were the only two horses they sent to the races. Two days later they took three horses to the Canterbury Friday night meeting and came away with two winners and a second. The very next day they had another two state double with Not Listenin'tome (Caulfield) and Leebaz (Randwick). Backed that up with three winners from three runners on Wednesday on the Kensington track. Their last 20 starters have returned nine wins and five placings (Win 45% / Place 70%).
Perhaps they can bag another two state double tomorrow. At Flemington they have Hostwin Pegasus (Race 1 No. 2) 6th and at Rosehill they have Mossfun (Race 4 No. 6) 1st $3.00 win / $1.70 place and Maysoon (Race 7 No. 3) 4th.
Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
All points to Shamus Award who led them at a pretty good clip and was still able to kick. Criterion, Thunder Fantasy, Surge Ahead and Teronado look the ones to follow when they get up to 2000m+.
Locky's Selections
Perhaps they can bag another two state double tomorrow. At Flemington they have Hostwin Pegasus (Race 1 No. 2) 6th and at Rosehill they have Mossfun (Race 4 No. 6) 1st $3.00 win / $1.70 place and Maysoon (Race 7 No. 3) 4th.
Flemington
All points to Shamus Award who led them at a pretty good clip and was still able to kick. Criterion, Thunder Fantasy, Surge Ahead and Teronado look the ones to follow when they get up to 2000m+.
Locky's Selections
5 Hucklebuck (8th)
3 Eurozone (4th)
1 Shamus Award (1st) $ win / $ place
9 Teronado (5th)
3 Eurozone (4th)
1 Shamus Award (1st) $ win / $ place
9 Teronado (5th)
Rosehill
Silver Slipper Stakes (Group 2, 1100m, 2-y-o set weights)
Mossfun was dominant and that's three from three now. The others will have to improve lengths to challenge her. Look out if the Golden Slipper is run on a wet track!
Mossfun was dominant and that's three from three now. The others will have to improve lengths to challenge her. Look out if the Golden Slipper is run on a wet track!
Locky's Selections
3 Risen from Doubt (3rd)
4 Modoc (6th)
1 Unencumbered (5th)
2 Law (4th)
Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
4 Modoc (6th)
1 Unencumbered (5th)
2 Law (4th)
Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
The race was marred by the sensational pre-race scratching of the favourite El Roca. Common sense should have prevailed but as usual when dealing with stewards it didn't. Self important, over officious little men with God complexes. Pathetic. Feel free to grow a pair anytime.
Locky's Selections
5 El Roca (SCR)
2 Romantic Touch (6th)
1 Dissident (1st) $4.10 win / $1.60 place
9 Woodbine (4th)
Goldslick (Flemington Race 5 No. 5) ran really well fresh against the boys. She was caught wide but kept finding the line in the straight. Back to fillies and mares grade and down on the minimum will suit her a lot better. Second-up last time in she was just over a length behind Molto Bene and British General in a Listed race over this course and distance on Turnbull Stakes Day after being badly held up. Second-up the previous prep she won a mares handicap with 58kg by almost a length and a half, again here at the Flemington 1400m. $7.50. 8th. Poor.
2 Romantic Touch (6th)
1 Dissident (1st) $4.10 win / $1.60 place
9 Woodbine (4th)
Other bets
Goldslick (Flemington Race 5 No. 5) ran really well fresh against the boys. She was caught wide but kept finding the line in the straight. Back to fillies and mares grade and down on the minimum will suit her a lot better. Second-up last time in she was just over a length behind Molto Bene and British General in a Listed race over this course and distance on Turnbull Stakes Day after being badly held up. Second-up the previous prep she won a mares handicap with 58kg by almost a length and a half, again here at the Flemington 1400m. $7.50. 8th. Poor.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
I hope people don't take these little poems too seriously.
- Nostradamus, France, 1555
- Nostradamus, France, 1555
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