The good news is we could be racing on a much better surface in Sydney this week but it still looks like being less than ideal.
Sunny and dry days yesterday and today and the prospect of the same tomorrow are just what the Randwick track manager ordered after the circuit copped more than 50mm of rain over the last two weeks.
Sunny and dry days yesterday and today and the prospect of the same tomorrow are just what the Randwick track manager ordered after the circuit copped more than 50mm of rain over the last two weeks.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Hugh Bowman has strung together a number of feature race wins this Autumn including Group 1's aboard Criterion (ATC Derby, Rosehill Guineas) and Lucia Valentina (Vinery Stud Stakes) plus black type successes on Weary (Doncaster Prelude), El Roca (Eskimo Prince) and Catkins (Emanciaption Stakes, Wiggle Stakes & Breeders Classic).
His best chances at Randwick tomorrow appear to be Safeguard (Race 4 No. 2), Catkins (Race 5 No. 3), Lucia Valentina (Race 6 No. 2) and Green Moon (Race 8 No. 4).
Randwick
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Doesn't appear to be a stack of speed here so this could become one of those tactical w-f-a sit and sprint affairs like the G1 Ranvet Stakes (below) when Carlton House and Silent Achiever were the first two around the corner and the first two over the line. It's a Dundeel couldn't sprint with them and Hawkspur flashed from last to get fourth against the pattern.
Carlton House probably leads Green Moon here but Silent Achiever, It's a Dundeel and even Hawkspur and Le Roi can be handy. Chris Waller runners have drawn the outside four gates so Sacred Falls, Royal Descent, My Kingdom of Fife and Boban must go back. I can't see Toydini and Dear Demi pressing forward either.
I'm leaning to the two horses who have been saved for this race over the ones who have had other targets. Carlton House will be fitter for his only 2000m run in this country and provided the track isn't too rain affected I think he can dictate here and lead from barrier to box.
Green Moon is a ridiculous price provided the surface gets back to at least dead. Lloyd Williams makes no bones about the fact that he only targets the "big" races and they don't get much bigger than this. He's had a typicl "Lloyd" preparation too being sparingly raced. He'll be handy and his last start second in the G1 Australian Cup was superb.
Silent Achiever is impossible to fault this campaign with four wins from four starts including three successive G1's. My concern is the drop in distance and the fact that she has been up for a while. I just wonder how many times they can go to the well with her. In the past she has not coped well with a long preparation. She must be included in all exotics though.
It's a Dundeel is drawn to get the gun run just behind the leaders and his form this time in has been sound if not spectacular. I just query if he has the dash to sprint quickly at the end of this because he hasn't shown that customary brilliance this prep and he is dropping from the 2400m back to the 2000m. Silent Achiever has safely held him at their last two meetings.
I'm leaning to the two horses who have been saved for this race over the ones who have had other targets. Carlton House will be fitter for his only 2000m run in this country and provided the track isn't too rain affected I think he can dictate here and lead from barrier to box.
Green Moon is a ridiculous price provided the surface gets back to at least dead. Lloyd Williams makes no bones about the fact that he only targets the "big" races and they don't get much bigger than this. He's had a typicl "Lloyd" preparation too being sparingly raced. He'll be handy and his last start second in the G1 Australian Cup was superb.
Silent Achiever is impossible to fault this campaign with four wins from four starts including three successive G1's. My concern is the drop in distance and the fact that she has been up for a while. I just wonder how many times they can go to the well with her. In the past she has not coped well with a long preparation. She must be included in all exotics though.
It's a Dundeel is drawn to get the gun run just behind the leaders and his form this time in has been sound if not spectacular. I just query if he has the dash to sprint quickly at the end of this because he hasn't shown that customary brilliance this prep and he is dropping from the 2400m back to the 2000m. Silent Achiever has safely held him at their last two meetings.
It means I've done the unthinkable and left the Waller quintet out of my top four but I have my reasons. The wide barriers force most of them to go back in a race I believe won't be run to suit backmarkers. Sacred Falls and Royal Descent won't be getting a bog track like they did last weekend. I also think this is a deeper race than the G1 Doncaster. Boban is a question mark at 2000m and he is not going well enough in my opinion. Hawkspur is his best chance for mine.
Locky's Selections
5 Carlton House
4 Green Moon
10 Silent Achiever
2 It's a Dundeel
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Shaumari (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) is the fresh horse on the scene whereas a few of these have had hard preps. He looked impressive winning on debut when he sat wide and charged away in the straight on a wet track. Two Darley horses in the race and #1 stable jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides this bloke - a half-brother to Safeguard. $4.60.
Thump (Randwick Race 4 No. 10) is dropping back to a 3-y-o set weights race after contesting a G1 against older horses last start. It wasn't a bad run - just two and a half lengths behind the likes of Spirit of Boom, Fontelina etc. - and this is much easier. $9.00.
10 Silent Achiever
2 It's a Dundeel
The Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
17 of the last 20 winners drew a single digit barrier. In the same period only three winners returned more than $16. Yet only five favourites have saluted in that time.
Lucia Valentina won the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes (below) in impressive fashion but the double has only been achieved five times in the last 30 years. I have a feeling that the 2400m may test her too because the brilliance of her last start success may be an indication that she is just a very good 2000m horse. I may be wrong but I cat step into 6/4.
Zanbagh contested the same race and was well tried in the ring but you'd have to say disappointing on face value. She did run through the line strongly though and her G1 VRC Oaks second placing last Spring gave every indication the trip is no concern. Wet track is no problem either. Trainer Guy Walter has won this race three times.
Rising Romance struggled in the wet last start but still found the line strongly and her NZ form (which includes a victory over Lucia Valentina) indicates the trip should be no concern. A drying track is amust for her and if she gets it she'll be there when the whips are cracking.
Suavito was well tried last start but got back and wide and never really got into the race. She has form around Solicit in Melbourne which is trong but she's never won beyond 1400m.
Missvonn is the next best for mine. She'll appreciate being back on top of the ground and I think she would have won last start if the ground had not been so inferior adn she hadn't bumped into a superior mudlark in Arabian Gold.
Locky's Selections
1 Zanbagh
3 Rising Romance
2 Lucia Valentina
12 Missvonn
3 Rising Romance
2 Lucia Valentina
12 Missvonn
Other bets
Shaumari (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) is the fresh horse on the scene whereas a few of these have had hard preps. He looked impressive winning on debut when he sat wide and charged away in the straight on a wet track. Two Darley horses in the race and #1 stable jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides this bloke - a half-brother to Safeguard. $4.60.
Thump (Randwick Race 4 No. 10) is dropping back to a 3-y-o set weights race after contesting a G1 against older horses last start. It wasn't a bad run - just two and a half lengths behind the likes of Spirit of Boom, Fontelina etc. - and this is much easier. $9.00.
Catkins (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) is the form horse of the Autumn and yet the bookies continue to allow us to get on. Stable and jockey are absolutely flying. Handles all tracks and is strong at the mile with two starts for a win in the G2 Tesio Stakes at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day and a narrow second to Red Tracer in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on Derby Day. She's going even better now. $3.30.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Nash Rawiller followed a treble at Rosehill last weekend with another hat-trick at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. He's already ridden three Group 1 winners this carnival (Silent Achiever twice, Tiger Tees) plus a G2 win on Gallatin and a G3 on Bachman. He's dominated at Randwick during the Autumn in recent years with two wins apiece in G1's such as the T.J. Smith Stakes, Sires Produce Stakes, the Doncaster Mile, Australian Oaks, Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Champagne Stakes.
In somewhat of a rarity he has just four rides at a Randwick tomorrow. Peggy Jean (Race 5 No. 8) 1st $3.80 win / $1.70 place, Gallatin (Race 6 No. 8) 6th, Tiger Tees (Race 7 No. 6) 4th and Royal Descent (Race 8 No. 9) 2nd $3.20 place.
In somewhat of a rarity he has just four rides at a Randwick tomorrow. Peggy Jean (Race 5 No. 8) 1st $3.80 win / $1.70 place, Gallatin (Race 6 No. 8) 6th, Tiger Tees (Race 7 No. 6) 4th and Royal Descent (Race 8 No. 9) 2nd $3.20 place.
Randwick
The Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
Chris Waller. Wow. The First Four in a Doncaster. Four of the last seven winners of the race. The big three G1 mile races this season - Epsom Handicap and Emirates Stakes (Boban) and now the Doncaster (Sacred Falls). Royal Descent looked the winner and is a live chance tomorrow in the G1 Queen Elizabeth. Weary could be next year's Doncaster winner. Hawkspur looks on track for the QE as does the winner Sacred Falls, especially if it's a bog again. Ninth Legion and Hana's Goal were excellent given their dislike for the conditions and their relative runs in transit.
Chris Waller. Wow. The First Four in a Doncaster. Four of the last seven winners of the race. The big three G1 mile races this season - Epsom Handicap and Emirates Stakes (Boban) and now the Doncaster (Sacred Falls). Royal Descent looked the winner and is a live chance tomorrow in the G1 Queen Elizabeth. Weary could be next year's Doncaster winner. Hawkspur looks on track for the QE as does the winner Sacred Falls, especially if it's a bog again. Ninth Legion and Hana's Goal were excellent given their dislike for the conditions and their relative runs in transit.
Locky's Selections
18 El Roca (9th)
5 Hawkspur (4th)
4 Sacred Falls (1st) $10.90 win / $3.50 place
7 Speediness (11th)
Hippopus (Rosehill Race 4 No. 6) is one I could entertain each-way at double figure odds. His four starts on wet tracks have yielded a second last week to the flying Junoob in the G3 Neville Selwood, a 2nd to Phillipi in last year's G2 Tulloch Stakes, a win at Canterbury (1900m) and a second at Kembla Grange (2400m). He's a VRC St Leger winner at 2800m too. $11.00. 3rd. $1.90 place. Tried hard but the first two were just too good. Backs up tomorrow in the G1 Sydney Cup.
Peggy Jean (Rosehill Race 5 No. 8) bypassed the G1 Golden Slipper to concentrate on this race. Gerald Ryan knows a thing or two about 2-y-o's let me assure you. Handled the heavy track fine when a narrow second last start to subsequent G1 Golden Slipper placegetter Bring Me the Maid. Came from near last that day and gives every indication the 1400m will be no problem. $4.00. 1st $3.80 win / $1.70 place. Gutsy win. Looks a good chance in the G1 Champagne Stakes next week.
4 Sacred Falls (1st) $10.90 win / $3.50 place
7 Speediness (11th)
The T.J. Smith (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Lankan Rupee was dominant despite stepping out on a wet track for the first time and racing the Sydney way of going for the first time too. Led Buffering, Snitzerland and Steps in Time and those three normally wouldn't surrender the lead at gunpoint. Then he had the temerity to kick away at the top of the straight. Top class win. Rebel Dane, Buffering and Tiger Tees were all brave and See the World ran out of his skin. Gordon Lord Byron was OK given the drop and distance. He just got too far back.
Locky's Selections
3 Lankan Rupee (1st) $3.80 win / $2.10 place
16 Zoustar (SCR)
1 Buffering (3rd) $3.10 place
6 Tiger Tees (4th)
Any 2 3-1 $7.40
16 Zoustar (SCR)
1 Buffering (3rd) $3.10 place
6 Tiger Tees (4th)
Any 2 3-1 $7.40
Other bets
Hippopus (Rosehill Race 4 No. 6) is one I could entertain each-way at double figure odds. His four starts on wet tracks have yielded a second last week to the flying Junoob in the G3 Neville Selwood, a 2nd to Phillipi in last year's G2 Tulloch Stakes, a win at Canterbury (1900m) and a second at Kembla Grange (2400m). He's a VRC St Leger winner at 2800m too. $11.00. 3rd. $1.90 place. Tried hard but the first two were just too good. Backs up tomorrow in the G1 Sydney Cup.
Peggy Jean (Rosehill Race 5 No. 8) bypassed the G1 Golden Slipper to concentrate on this race. Gerald Ryan knows a thing or two about 2-y-o's let me assure you. Handled the heavy track fine when a narrow second last start to subsequent G1 Golden Slipper placegetter Bring Me the Maid. Came from near last that day and gives every indication the 1400m will be no problem. $4.00. 1st $3.80 win / $1.70 place. Gutsy win. Looks a good chance in the G1 Champagne Stakes next week.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
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