No blog last week as I was sent for a freshen-up following the rigours of my Sydney Autumn campaign. By that I mean I was drinking beer watching the mighty Pies flog Essendon. Go the Pies.
Attention moves to South Australia and Queensland this weekend but unfortunately a change of venue hasn't meant a change in weather with both Morphettville and the Gold Coast (below) getting their fair share of rain this week.
Attention moves to South Australia and Queensland this weekend but unfortunately a change of venue hasn't meant a change in weather with both Morphettville and the Gold Coast (below) getting their fair share of rain this week.
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| The storm cell that hit Southport around 4.30pm this afternoon |
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Nash Rawiller was the rider of the Autumn Carnival with five Group 1 wins courtesy of Silent Achiever (Ranvet, BMW), Tiger Tees (Galaxy), Peggy Jean (Sires Produce) & Hana's Goal (All Aged).
He has two rides at the Gold Coast tomorrow - Junoob (Race 7 No. 6) and Dothraki (Race 8 No. 2).
Morphettville
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 8. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with isolated showers. ***
South Australian Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
I'm looking for a bit of value here and putting Gamblin' Guru on top. The stable is in top form with Go Indy Go winning the G1 Champagne Stakes in Sydney last Saturday plus a double here at Morphettville and a treble at Oakbank on Easter Monday from only three runners. Leon Macdonald has won this race twice before so he knows what he's doing. The barrier is of no real concern as four winners have jumped from the outside barrier in the last 17 years making it the most successful starting gate in that period. He's won his last two including the traditional lead-up for this in the G3 Chairman's Stakes, he's a three time winner at the track, he handles all surfaces and he has two victories at 2000m+.
Bring Something was super impressive winning last time out. That made it back-to-back victories following a six and a half length win with 58kg to break his maiden at his previous start. He'll run out the 2500m strongly. Many of these won't. He's another who will handle the sting out of the ground.
Order of the Sun gave nothing else a chance on ANZAC Day when he led from barrier to box to score an emphatic seven length win in the VRC St Leger. That was at 2800m so the trip here holds no fears. Six of the last eight winners started favourite. Trainer Anthony Cummings won this race in 2011 with Shadows in the Sun. Unplaced in two starts on affected ground.
Scratchy Bottom came from a mile back to just miss out in the G1 Oaks last start. She gives every indication that the 2500m will be no problem and she'll also appreciate the better barrier this week which should allow her a better run in transit.
I can't see anything that finished behind Order of the Sun challenging him here so that rules out Honey Steel's Gold and More Rewarding although both can boast wins on affected ground.
Best Case, Surge Ahead, Crime Fighter and Surging Wave were all beaten at least 11 lengths in the G1 ATC Derby last start so it's hard to entertain them although this is a drop in grade so a form turnaround wouldn't be a complete shock.
Excites Zelady, Gravitational and Kushadasi were all good behind Gamblin' Guru last start so they could possibly be entertained in exotics. Kushadasi has good wet track credentials.
Locky's Selections
Bring Something was super impressive winning last time out. That made it back-to-back victories following a six and a half length win with 58kg to break his maiden at his previous start. He'll run out the 2500m strongly. Many of these won't. He's another who will handle the sting out of the ground.
Scratchy Bottom came from a mile back to just miss out in the G1 Oaks last start. She gives every indication that the 2500m will be no problem and she'll also appreciate the better barrier this week which should allow her a better run in transit.
I can't see anything that finished behind Order of the Sun challenging him here so that rules out Honey Steel's Gold and More Rewarding although both can boast wins on affected ground.
Best Case, Surge Ahead, Crime Fighter and Surging Wave were all beaten at least 11 lengths in the G1 ATC Derby last start so it's hard to entertain them although this is a drop in grade so a form turnaround wouldn't be a complete shock.
Excites Zelady, Gravitational and Kushadasi were all good behind Gamblin' Guru last start so they could possibly be entertained in exotics. Kushadasi has good wet track credentials.
Locky's Selections
1 Gamblin' Guru
8 Bring Something
4 Order of the Sun
16 Scratchy Bottom
*** There are no early scratchings ***
La Amistad (Hawkesbury Race 4 No. 17) is first emergency but she's one to watch if she sneaks into the field. A half-sister to Makybe Diva, she progressed nicely through the grades last prep before being thrown in at the deep end in the G2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington during the Spring Carnival at just her sixth career start. She had a couple of lead up runs this campaign before being sent to Echuca for a soft kill and this now looks like the right race for her at this stage of her preparation. Stable and jockey (Hawkes/McDonald) are flying. Opened at $8 but has been backed into $4.60.
Kayjay's Joy (Hawkesbury Race 7 No. 16) was narrowly beaten when sensationally backed first-up off the back of a stylish trial win. Her closing sectionals on that day were amazing and prior to that she was unbeaten having won her only two other starts by big margins. $8.50.
The Quarterback (Morphettville Race 6 No. 4) seems to have finally worked out what this game is about after showing plenty of early potential. His last-to-first win last start had to be seen to be believed and he was unlucky to just miss out prior to that with the huge 60kg impost. His three runs previous to that were behind the likes of Shamus Award, Hucklebuck and Bull Point. This is much easier. $4.80 was bet.
4 Order of the Sun
16 Scratchy Bottom
Gold Coast
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 7. The forecast is for a sunny day tomorrow. ***
Hollindale Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
I'm leaning to Mr O'ceirin on an each-way basis here given his good second-up record and excellent wet track credentials. He improved sharply second-up last prep when he quickly jumped up in distance to win a 2040m race at Moonee Valley. He also won the Listed Grafton Cup and the G3 Naturalism Stakes last time in and was only four lengths behind Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Cup and a similar margin astern of Happy Trails in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Glen Boss goes back on. The wide barrier shouldn't be a problem as he will roll forward towards the lead.
Junoob is the clear danger. Four wins from his last five starts but they have been in much weaker company than this. His one "failure" was when he hit a slow track and while he did win in heavy going last start he didn't look all that comfortable.
Moriarty is the opposite. He drops back in grade here after chasing the likes of Boban in the G1 Chipping Norton and Silent Achiever in the G1 Ranvet Stakes (below). He performed well up here last year winning the G2 Brisbane Cup. The Waller stable has won this race previously with Metal Bender and My Kingdom of Fife and just missed with Foreteller last year. Wet track is a worry though.
Streama the next best although without real confidence. She doesn't seem like the same mare she was 12 months ago although her last start effort was much improved. Wet track is no bother and on her best form she just about wins this. The problem is I don't think she is anywhere near her best at the moment.
Precedence will need the run, there's been no real push for the Kiwi raider Military Move in the betting, Angel of Mercy was good last time out but this is tougher plus she needs it dry, so does Fat Al and the others are out of their depth.
Locky's Selections
5 Mr O'ceirin
6 Junoob
2 Moriarty
10 Streama
6 Junoob
2 Moriarty
10 Streama
Other bets
La Amistad (Hawkesbury Race 4 No. 17) is first emergency but she's one to watch if she sneaks into the field. A half-sister to Makybe Diva, she progressed nicely through the grades last prep before being thrown in at the deep end in the G2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington during the Spring Carnival at just her sixth career start. She had a couple of lead up runs this campaign before being sent to Echuca for a soft kill and this now looks like the right race for her at this stage of her preparation. Stable and jockey (Hawkes/McDonald) are flying. Opened at $8 but has been backed into $4.60.
Kayjay's Joy (Hawkesbury Race 7 No. 16) was narrowly beaten when sensationally backed first-up off the back of a stylish trial win. Her closing sectionals on that day were amazing and prior to that she was unbeaten having won her only two other starts by big margins. $8.50.
The Quarterback (Morphettville Race 6 No. 4) seems to have finally worked out what this game is about after showing plenty of early potential. His last-to-first win last start had to be seen to be believed and he was unlucky to just miss out prior to that with the huge 60kg impost. His three runs previous to that were behind the likes of Shamus Award, Hucklebuck and Bull Point. This is much easier. $4.80 was bet.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Hugh Bowman has strung together a number of feature race wins this Autumn including Group 1's aboard Criterion (ATC Derby, Rosehill Guineas) and Lucia Valentina (Vinery Stud Stakes) plus black type successes on Weary (Doncaster Prelude), El Roca (Eskimo Prince) and Catkins (Emanciaption Stakes, Wiggle Stakes & Breeders Classic).
His best chances at Randwick tomorrow appear to be Safeguard (Race 4 No. 2) 11th, Catkins (Race 5 No. 3) 6th, Lucia Valentina (Race 6 No. 2) 3rd $1.40 place and Green Moon (Race 8 No. 4) 7th.
His best chances at Randwick tomorrow appear to be Safeguard (Race 4 No. 2) 11th, Catkins (Race 5 No. 3) 6th, Lucia Valentina (Race 6 No. 2) 3rd $1.40 place and Green Moon (Race 8 No. 4) 7th.
Randwick
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
It's a Dundeel peaked at the right time. Sacred Falls chased hard but was no match. Carlton House was solid after setting a good tempo in front and Silent Achiever appeared a bit dour. The rest were safely held.
It's a Dundeel peaked at the right time. Sacred Falls chased hard but was no match. Carlton House was solid after setting a good tempo in front and Silent Achiever appeared a bit dour. The rest were safely held.
Locky's Selections
5 Carlton House (3rd) $2.60 place
4 Green Moon (7th)
10 Silent Achiever (4th)
2 It's a Dundeel (1st) $4.70 win / $1.90 place
Any 2 2-5 $6.60
Shaumari (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) is the fresh horse on the scene whereas a few of these have had hard preps. He looked impressive winning on debut when he sat wide and charged away in the straight on a wet track. Two Darley horses in the race and #1 stable jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides this bloke - a half-brother to Safeguard. $4.60. 3rd. $1.90 place. Solid run from well back in a leader dominated affair.
Thump (Randwick Race 4 No. 10) is dropping back to a 3-y-o set weights race after contesting a G1 against older horses last start. It wasn't a bad run - just two and a half lengths behind the likes of Spirit of Boom, Fontelina etc. - and this is much easier. $9.00. 4th. Perhaps a little too wet?
10 Silent Achiever (4th)
2 It's a Dundeel (1st) $4.70 win / $1.90 place
Any 2 2-5 $6.60
The Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Peach of a ride from young McDonald got Rising Romance home. Zanbagh was OK and Lucia Valentina got too far back. That trio easily accounted for the rest.
Locky's Selections
1 Zanbagh (2nd) $2.10 place
3 Rising Romance (1st) $6.00 win / $1.70 place
2 Lucia Valentina (3rd) $1.40 place
12 Missvonn (8th)
Trifecta 3-1-2 $53.70
Exacta 3-1 $32.70
Quinella 1-3 $16.40
Any 2 3-1 $5.00
Any 2 3-2 $2.40
Any 2 1-2 $3.10
3 Rising Romance (1st) $6.00 win / $1.70 place
2 Lucia Valentina (3rd) $1.40 place
12 Missvonn (8th)
Trifecta 3-1-2 $53.70
Exacta 3-1 $32.70
Quinella 1-3 $16.40
Any 2 3-1 $5.00
Any 2 3-2 $2.40
Any 2 1-2 $3.10
Other bets
Shaumari (Randwick Race 3 No. 8) is the fresh horse on the scene whereas a few of these have had hard preps. He looked impressive winning on debut when he sat wide and charged away in the straight on a wet track. Two Darley horses in the race and #1 stable jockey Kerrin McEvoy rides this bloke - a half-brother to Safeguard. $4.60. 3rd. $1.90 place. Solid run from well back in a leader dominated affair.
Thump (Randwick Race 4 No. 10) is dropping back to a 3-y-o set weights race after contesting a G1 against older horses last start. It wasn't a bad run - just two and a half lengths behind the likes of Spirit of Boom, Fontelina etc. - and this is much easier. $9.00. 4th. Perhaps a little too wet?
Catkins (Randwick Race 5 No. 3) is the form horse of the Autumn and yet the bookies continue to allow us to get on. Stable and jockey are absolutely flying. Handles all tracks and is strong at the mile with two starts for a win in the G2 Tesio Stakes at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day and a narrow second to Red Tracer in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on Derby Day. She's going even better now. $3.30. 6th. Disappointing. Rider Hugh Bowman said post-race that he wasn't happy with her action but an examination revealed no abnormalities.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
- Adolf Hitler, Wolf's Lair Field Headquarters, 20 July 1944
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