An eventful week in racing with the sudden, tragic death of master trainer Guy Walter, the retirement of Zoustar, an abandoned midweek meeting at Sandown due to an unsafe racing surface, talk of sabotage at today's Bathurst meeting and to top it all off Nathan Tinkler has sold the farm!
After all that we still have Group 1 racing in Brisbane with the Doomben 10,000 plus a string of strong support races.
I also have a new format this week with no more post-mortems and more focus on living in the now!
Apologies for not posting last week but I was as sick as a dog. This is a one man show so unfortunately I can't call for back-up.
After all that we still have Group 1 racing in Brisbane with the Doomben 10,000 plus a string of strong support races.
I also have a new format this week with no more post-mortems and more focus on living in the now!
Apologies for not posting last week but I was as sick as a dog. This is a one man show so unfortunately I can't call for back-up.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Eagle Farm trainer Tony Gollan has been in good nick the last two months with major wins in the G1 William Reid Stakes (Spirit of Boom), G2 Victory Stakes (Temple of Boom), G3 Rough Habit Plate (Amexed), the Bribie Handicap (Pure Purrfection) and the Tails Stakes (Brave Ali).
He has several runners tomorrow at Doomben but his best chances appear to be Pure Purrfection (Race 3 No. 5), Looks Like The Cat (Race 6 No. 5), Amexed (Race 7 No. 4) and Spirit of Boom (Race 8 No. 2).
Doomben
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*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***
Doomben 10,000 (Group 1, 1350m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Spirit of Boom : The top fancies have dominated in recent years with no winner returning more than $6 since 2006. Six of the last nine winners came via the BTC Cup but only two completed the double. No winner has jumped from outside barrier seven since 2002.
"The Speed Map" says - Buffering leads Driefontein with Hot Snitzel and Conservatorium also pressing forward. Temple of Boom can be handy from the good gate and it wouldn't surprise me to see Spirit of Boom ridden closer too.
Buffering needs an uncontested lead to produce his best and he may get that tomorrow for the first time in a long while. Given that they are stepping up to 1350m should also mean they don't go quite as hard in front. He can bounce back but it's fair to say he was disappointing last start when he didn't finish off despite it being a slowly run race. He needs to jump cleanly too.
Rebel Dane won the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes last Spring when he was also third-up and coming off a disappointing run second-up when a well tried favourite. His first-up run behind Lankan Rupee in the G1 T.J. Smith (below) was super and if he repeats that he's right in this although he does have to overcome an awkward barrier. That means he'll get back in race where there doesn't appear to be a stack of speed so that is a worry.
Spirit of Boom is ultra consistent but his Doomben record reads 11 starts for no wins although he has placed six times. He must be included in multiples because he hasn't finished outside the Top 4 in his last 10 starts. The problem is he is giving away far too much start in his races so he needs the leaders to charge in front and then run out of gas.
Famous Seamus beat many of these easily last start in the G1 BTC Cup (below) and was going away on the line. If he repeats that he will be hard to beat. He appears to thrive up here at this time of year winning two races last year including the Prime Minister's Cup.
Knoydart won three in a row after being gelded then placed behind Lankan Rupee in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and the G1 Newmarket. He then disappointed at his last appearance when he appeared to have every chance but was relegated to second despite being backed like Phar Lap. He was seven weeks between runs on that occasion so perhaps he can strip fitter here. A nice, young, lightly raced horse on an upward spiral but he's bumping into some tough, old, seasoned campaigners here. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy won this race last year on Epaulette, making it two wins in the last three years for Darley after Beaded won in 2011.
Temple of Boom has never won beyond 1200m and like his more fancied half-brother and stablemate he has not won at Doomben, despite eight attempts. Was his win two starts back a fluke? The $41 they bet that day would appear to say so. He doesn't win often and he's older than Monty Burns so I'm happy to look elsewhere.
Peron will appreciate stepping up in distance and getting back to a dry track but she needs a strong tempo. Unbeaten in two attempts at 1350m here at Doomben. A talented filly on the rise but is this a case of "too much, too soon" or can she send John Thompson and Nathan Tinkler out on a high?
Driefontein will also appreciate the dry track and it appears she will get the gun run here from a good gate in a race where I doubt they will be out to break any land speed records in front. If you forgive her last start flop in the wet and go on her two previous runs she's not out of this by a long shot. She does race well up here and mares have won three of the last four runnings of this race.
Hot Snitzel appears to be a horse who races best when kept fresh and when restricted to 1200m. He also goes better with a bit of sting out of the ground. Having said that, trainer Gerald Ryan (G3 Gold Coast Guineas, Prime Minister's Cup) is in good form.
Conservatorium was competitive up here last year winning the Eye Liner Stakes on Ipswich Cup day and just missing in the G2 QTC Cup. This is much tougher though and he was in better form when last in Queensland having come off a narrow second in the G1 Goodwood.
Scream Machine. No.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Buffering leads Driefontein with Hot Snitzel and Conservatorium also pressing forward. Temple of Boom can be handy from the good gate and it wouldn't surprise me to see Spirit of Boom ridden closer too.
Buffering needs an uncontested lead to produce his best and he may get that tomorrow for the first time in a long while. Given that they are stepping up to 1350m should also mean they don't go quite as hard in front. He can bounce back but it's fair to say he was disappointing last start when he didn't finish off despite it being a slowly run race. He needs to jump cleanly too.
Rebel Dane won the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes last Spring when he was also third-up and coming off a disappointing run second-up when a well tried favourite. His first-up run behind Lankan Rupee in the G1 T.J. Smith (below) was super and if he repeats that he's right in this although he does have to overcome an awkward barrier. That means he'll get back in race where there doesn't appear to be a stack of speed so that is a worry.
Spirit of Boom is ultra consistent but his Doomben record reads 11 starts for no wins although he has placed six times. He must be included in multiples because he hasn't finished outside the Top 4 in his last 10 starts. The problem is he is giving away far too much start in his races so he needs the leaders to charge in front and then run out of gas.
Famous Seamus beat many of these easily last start in the G1 BTC Cup (below) and was going away on the line. If he repeats that he will be hard to beat. He appears to thrive up here at this time of year winning two races last year including the Prime Minister's Cup.
Knoydart won three in a row after being gelded then placed behind Lankan Rupee in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and the G1 Newmarket. He then disappointed at his last appearance when he appeared to have every chance but was relegated to second despite being backed like Phar Lap. He was seven weeks between runs on that occasion so perhaps he can strip fitter here. A nice, young, lightly raced horse on an upward spiral but he's bumping into some tough, old, seasoned campaigners here. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy won this race last year on Epaulette, making it two wins in the last three years for Darley after Beaded won in 2011.
Temple of Boom has never won beyond 1200m and like his more fancied half-brother and stablemate he has not won at Doomben, despite eight attempts. Was his win two starts back a fluke? The $41 they bet that day would appear to say so. He doesn't win often and he's older than Monty Burns so I'm happy to look elsewhere.
Peron will appreciate stepping up in distance and getting back to a dry track but she needs a strong tempo. Unbeaten in two attempts at 1350m here at Doomben. A talented filly on the rise but is this a case of "too much, too soon" or can she send John Thompson and Nathan Tinkler out on a high?
Driefontein will also appreciate the dry track and it appears she will get the gun run here from a good gate in a race where I doubt they will be out to break any land speed records in front. If you forgive her last start flop in the wet and go on her two previous runs she's not out of this by a long shot. She does race well up here and mares have won three of the last four runnings of this race.
Hot Snitzel appears to be a horse who races best when kept fresh and when restricted to 1200m. He also goes better with a bit of sting out of the ground. Having said that, trainer Gerald Ryan (G3 Gold Coast Guineas, Prime Minister's Cup) is in good form.
Conservatorium was competitive up here last year winning the Eye Liner Stakes on Ipswich Cup day and just missing in the G2 QTC Cup. This is much tougher though and he was in better form when last in Queensland having come off a narrow second in the G1 Goodwood.
Scream Machine. No.
Locky's Selections
4 Rebel Dane
2 Spirit of Boom
1 Buffering
8 Knoydart
Looks Like The Cat (Doomben Race 6 No. 5) chased hard in the G2 Champagne Classic last time out and he is a big striding type who gives every indication he will appreciate the step up in distance. He's drawn wide but there looks to be plenty of early pace here and his pattern is to settle back so he should be able to slot in somewhere along the length of the Doomben back straight. $6.50.
Precedence (Doomben Race 9 No. 1) won this race last year beating a much stronger field when he wasn't really in form. Granted he goes up to 59.5kg this year but his fresh effort in the G2 Hollindale Stakes (behind subsequent G1 Doomben Cup winner Streama) was enormous, especially given he doesn't really handle wet tracks. $4.40.
La Amistad (Randwick Race 6 No. 13) is the three-quarter-sister to Makybe Diva I tipped a few weeks back who was scratched on the Saturday only to win midweek. That three length romp may have been against inferior opposition but she has stepped up a notch every time they have raised the bar. James McDonald was in Brisbane last weekend for the Winter Carnival but he stays in Sydney this weekend for the ride. $3.30.
I'm Fearsome (Flemington Race 3 No. 8) stormed home from last to just miss out over this track and distance last start. He drew barrier one that day which really isn't where you want to be in Flemington straight races. His previous win was impressive. Lightly raced youngster from the Mick Kent yard who can measure up. $4.60.
1 Buffering
8 Knoydart
Other bets
Looks Like The Cat (Doomben Race 6 No. 5) chased hard in the G2 Champagne Classic last time out and he is a big striding type who gives every indication he will appreciate the step up in distance. He's drawn wide but there looks to be plenty of early pace here and his pattern is to settle back so he should be able to slot in somewhere along the length of the Doomben back straight. $6.50.
Precedence (Doomben Race 9 No. 1) won this race last year beating a much stronger field when he wasn't really in form. Granted he goes up to 59.5kg this year but his fresh effort in the G2 Hollindale Stakes (behind subsequent G1 Doomben Cup winner Streama) was enormous, especially given he doesn't really handle wet tracks. $4.40.
La Amistad (Randwick Race 6 No. 13) is the three-quarter-sister to Makybe Diva I tipped a few weeks back who was scratched on the Saturday only to win midweek. That three length romp may have been against inferior opposition but she has stepped up a notch every time they have raised the bar. James McDonald was in Brisbane last weekend for the Winter Carnival but he stays in Sydney this weekend for the ride. $3.30.
I'm Fearsome (Flemington Race 3 No. 8) stormed home from last to just miss out over this track and distance last start. He drew barrier one that day which really isn't where you want to be in Flemington straight races. His previous win was impressive. Lightly raced youngster from the Mick Kent yard who can measure up. $4.60.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
- Nathan Tinkler, Singapore, 21 May 2014
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