Friday, 9 May 2014

BTC Cup / Goodwood preview

Two Group 1 sprints clash this weekend with the BTC Cup in Brisbane and The Goodwood in Adelaide. 

Despite the clash both race clubs have attracted quality fields.

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Gerald Ryan bagged a winning double at the Gold Coast last weekend with Dances on Stars and Dothraki.

He has some good chances in Brisbane tomorrow too - Time for War (Race 4 No.1) and Hot Snitzel (Race 7 No. 5).

Doomben



*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of showers. ***

BTC Cup (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Snitzerland is an early scratching ***

Buffering looks like he'll get the gun run here from the good barrier. I think he can lead at his leisure and if so he'll be hard to run down. His last start third behind Lankan Rupee and Rebel Dane is good enough to win this. Rob Heathcote has trained the beaten favourite in this race the last two years running but I think it could be a case of third time lucky.

Hot Snitzel is in good form as are his trainer and jockey. He won the G2 Sires Produce and ran 2nd in the G1 T.J. Smith up here in 2011. He was just two lengths behind Lankan Rupee three starts back at level weights but his best form is on rain affected ground.

Spirit of Boom has been rock solid this campaign with seconds to Lankan Rupee in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and the G1 Newmarket before finally breaking through for his maiden G1 in the William Reid Stakes. Came from last two weeks ago to run down all bar his stablemate/half-brother in Temple of Boom. He'll get back and swoop so the presence of plenty of speed helps (Buffering, Temple of Boom, Tiger Tees, Hot Snitzel) and a drying track does too.

Temple of Boom sat three wide on the speed last start and still managed to kick and win. It was a gutsy victory but it was his first win in a very long time. Only one local horse (Albert the Fat, then trained by Eden Petrie) has won this race in the last 10 years.

Tiger Tees is a proven performer in Queensland and this looks an easier assignment than his past two where he chased home Lankan Rupee, Rebel Dane and Buffering in the G1 T.J. Smith and Hana's Goal and Weary in the G1 All Aged Stakes. Three of the last five winners of this race paid double figure odds. Trainer Joe Pride would have preferred a bit of rain though.

Locky's Selections

1 Buffering
2 Spirit of Boom
4 Tiger Tees
5 Hot Snitzel

Morphettville



*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 7. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with isolated showers. ***

The Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)


*** Esprit de Bullet and Eclair Big Bang are early scratchings ***


Gregers is the lightly raced young horse on the improve while some of these have had plenty of chances. She's got a good draw, no weight and an in-form jockey who rode a treble last weekend. The last four winners of this race were all female.

Unpretentious comes off a blistering run in the G1 William Reid where he just missed and prior to that he was OK behind the likes of Snitzerland and Lankan Rupee. He'll get well back but if they're running on late and wide (as they have been at Morphettville recently) then he should be steaming home.

Driefontein has strung together two solid wins since coming to SA and she's drawn to get another lovely run in transit tomorrow. She's a mare in winning form and it always pays to follow the girls when they string a few together. The stable must be respected in any G1.

Miracles of Life won her first race in more than a year last weekend and backs up here in what may well be her last start before retirement. The victory last Saturday was dominant albeit in much weaker company but I did like the way she savaged the line.

There's a few more I could make a case for like Sessions, Essay Raider, Sistine Demon and Platelet but that's my top four selections.


Locky's Selections

20 Gregers
5 Unpretentious
6 Driefontein
19 Miracles of Life


Other bets

Shaumari (Doomben Race 4 No. 10) wasn't suited by a dawdling tempo last time out but the presence of several on-pace runners in this field should ensure he gets a genuine speed in this race tomorrow. A talented two-year-old on an upward spiral from the powerful Darley yard. $4.50 was bet.

Rezoned (Morphettville Race 2 No. 4) never saw daylight in the G1 Oaks a fortnight ago and went to the line hard held but still managed to maintain her position all the way down the straight. She's a Zabeel filly so she should eat up the 2500m and with even luck in running she should be there when the whips are cracking. $4.20. 

Tried and Tired (Flemington Race 8 No. 9) has won five from eight and is racing in good heart, winning his latest two, both at 1400m. I like the fact that he can take a handy position in his races and that he displays a turn of foot at the end. $3.50.

Sacred Flyer (Rosehill Race 6 No. 7) is one I could entertain at each-way odds. He's won three from three here at the 2000m and whilst he's never won second-up he has been placed three times in four attempts. He never threatened first-up but his closing sectionals were sound. $13.

LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Nash Rawiller was the rider of the Autumn Carnival with five Group 1 wins courtesy of Silent Achiever (Ranvet, BMW), Tiger Tees (Galaxy), Peggy Jean (Sires Produce) & Hana's Goal (All Aged).

He has two rides at the Gold Coast tomorrow - Junoob (Race 7 No. 6) 4th and Dothraki (Race 8 No. 2) 1st $5.10 win / $1.90 place.

Morphettville


South Australian Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Kushadasi just edged out Scratchy Bottom in a deceptive finish. Best Case fought on bravely and Gamblin' Guru faded after looming to win on the turn. The rest were safely held.


Locky's Selections

1 Gamblin' Guru (4th)
8 Bring Something (8th)
4 Order of the Sun (6th)
16 Scratchy Bottom (2nd) $2.30 place

Gold Coast


Hollindale Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)

The drop back to G2 clearly helped Streama. I though Mr O'ceirin had pinched us the chocolates when Bossy cut the corner on the home turn but the run on the testing surface second-up told. Precedence went great fresh and looks in for a good campaign up here - he did win the Premier's Cup at Doomben last year and his best performances last prep were 2nd/3rd/4th run in. I wouldn't be writing off Junoob or Moriarty either - they loomed to win but just couldn't seem to let down on the bog track.

Locky's Selections

5 Mr O'ceirin (2nd) $2.20 place
6 Junoob (4th)
2 Moriarty (5th)
10 Streama (1st)

Exacta 10-5 $17.30
Quinella 5-10 $10.30
Any 2 5-10 $4.40


Other bets

La Amistad (Hawkesbury Race 4 No. 17) is first emergency but she's one to watch if she sneaks into the field. A half-sister to Makybe Diva, she progressed nicely through the grades last prep before being thrown in at the deep end in the G2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington during the Spring Carnival at just her sixth career start. She had a couple of lead up runs this campaign before being sent to Echuca for a soft kill and this now looks like the right race for her at this stage of her preparation. Stable and jockey (Hawkes/McDonald) are flying. Opened at $8 but has been backed into $4.60. SCR. Won midweek.

Kayjay's Joy (Hawkesbury Race 7 No. 16) was narrowly beaten when sensationally backed first-up off the back of a stylish trial win. Her closing sectionals on that day were amazing and prior to that she was unbeaten having won her only two other starts by big margins. $8.50. 11th.

The Quarterback (Morphettville Race 6 No. 4) seems to have finally worked out what this game is about after showing plenty of early potential. His last-to-first win last start had to be seen to be believed and he was unlucky to just miss out prior to that with the huge 60kg impost. His three runs previous to that were behind the likes of Shamus Award, Hucklebuck and Bull Point. This is much easier. $4.80 was bet. 5th. Poor. Rider reported he may not have handled the wet track.


QUOTE OF THE DAY


On report? For that? You have got to be kidding me.
- Jack Viney, Adelaide Oval, 3 May 2014


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