Golden Slipper preview

Unfortunately tomorrow's Golden Slipper meeting will be held under a pall of sadness following the tragic death of jockey Nathan Berry yesterday at the age of just 23. My thoughts go out to both the Berry and Schofield families at this heartbreaking time.

The Sunday Telegraph, the original sponsor of Race 5, has renamed the race "The Nathan Berry Tulloch Stakes" as a tribute to his short but stellar career.

Brother Tommy, father-in-law Glyn Schofield, brother-in-law Chad Schofield and best mate Christian Reith have all made the decision to push on and ride in Nathan's honour so I am going to push on with the blog for this week even though to some (including myself) it just seems so unimportant when tragedy like this strikes. It really does put things into perspective.

It's been a miserable week weather wise too in Sydney and we face another wet track at Rosehill tomorrow following more than an inch of rain in the last week including a downpour this afternoon.

The storms that hit Sydney late today

It made it hard to find winners last week but my quest continues with three Group 1's tomorrow, two Group 2's and four Group 3's on a nine race card where every event carries black type status.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Craig Williams has been riding well the last month or so with 15 winners since March 1 including 11 in the last two and half weeks from just 31 rides at a strike rate of better than one in three. His purple patch has included a treble at Moonee Valley, two doubles at Sandown-Hillside (the most recent on Wednesday just gone), a double at Mornington and a surprise G1 last weekend at Rosehill on Gordon Lord Byron. He also rode a treble at Flemington on Australian Guineas Day and a winner today at Geelong. He always seems to come good around carnival time.

He has quite a few rides at Rosehill tomorrow including Let's Make Adeal (Race 6 No. 7), Marianne (Race 7 No. 3) and Unencumbered (Race 8 No. 1) - the horse Nathan Berry was to have ridden in the feature. 

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 6 but that final inspection was made before the afternoon storms hit. The forecast is for a cloudy day tomorrow with isolated showers and the chance of thunderstorms. ***

Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Earthquake has drawn poorly but will still start favourite and it's easy to see why. She's won all four career starts and no-one has got within a length of her to date but all were on dry tracks. Two of the last three favourites have won but Sebring (2008) is the only other top elect to salute since Courtza in 1989. Phelan Ready (16) is the only winner in the last 10 years to draw a double digit barrier.

Mossfun wasn't far behind Earthquake last time out and prior to that she was unbeaten including a four length win on a slow track in the G2 Silver Slipper. She also has the best credentials of any horse in the race here at Rosehill with three starts for two wins and a second. Drawn in the middle of the field so James McDonald has options.

Ghibbelines looks to be finally realising his potential. He had big wraps on him early (being Guelph's little brother) and finally broke through last start for an impressive win. He's drawn to get a good run in transit and nine of the last 10 winners came from barrier eight or inside. he comes via the G2 Todman Stakes, the same lead-up race used by his stablemate Sepoy (2010) and won by Pierro (2011). The fillies form looks stronger though.

Bring Me the Maid has a win at this track and distance to her credit after scoring a good win last weekend in the G2 Magic Night Stakes when she came from well back on a heavy track to score. The seven day backup after a tough run worries me though.

Cornrow has been consistent with four placings in five starts and all were high class races including a third behind Earthquake in the G1 Blue Diamond (below). Sure he hasn't won but he's never been worse than fifth and has been within two or so lengths every time. He gets back and runs on every time so he may be looking for further but he could lob into a minor placing.

Unencumbered would be the fairy tale result. The horse Nathan Berry steered to victory in the Gold Coast Magic Millions and was due to ride in the Slipper if available will surely be the sentimental favourite. He's also a pretty good racehorse with five wins and two placings from eight starts. Unfortunately his only failure was the day he hit a really wet track and he's going to get that again tomorrow.

Oakleigh Girl comes into this off a 12 week break which is an unorthodox preparation to say the least. She is very speedy but is yet to win beyond 1000m although she wasn't far away from Unencumbered at the 1200m of the Magic Millions. She's a regally bred filly being by an Oakleigh Plate winner (Snitzel) out of an Oakleigh Plate winner (Miss Kournikova) and she has won two trails by big margins in readiness for this assignment. Not the worst.

Of the rest Believe Yourself is unbeaten and Gerald Ryan has a knack with these two-year-olds. Alpha Miss has form around Earthquake and Mossfun and has won on slow going. Eloping chased home Earthquake in the Blue Diamond Prelude and has won three of her other four starts including a six length demolition job last start in a $250,000 race at Bendigo. Valentia hasn't done much wrong either and Gai Waterhouse has won this race five times in the last 13 years including the last two in a row. If Tommy Berry can combine with her to go back-to-back there won't be a dry eye in the house.

Locky's Selections

10 Mossfun

9 Earthquake
3 Ghibbelines
11 Oakleigh Girl

The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Green Moon and Mourayan are early scratchings ***

Fiorente looks like coming up favourite despite his dismal last start effort in the G1 Ranvet Stakes (below). That was his only bad run since coming to Australia so I'm prepared to forgive him because we all have bad days from time to time. I can't back him to win at that price off that run but he will be in my exotics. Won a 2400m race at Newmarket on slow ground (beating Joshua Tree!) but that was 21 months ago.

It's a Dundeel ran past a couple in the straight in the same race (Fiorente was one of them) and the first two around the corner were the first two home on that occasion so perhaps the run wasn't that bad. Has a wet track win to his credit (over Atlantic Jewel in the G1 Underwood no less) and this time last year he trotted in to win the G1 ATC Derby by panels over this same trip. That race was run at Randwick however and against his own age at set weights.

Silent Achiever is the form horse and it's hard to knock her because she's strung three on end now including a G1 Ranvet Stakes where she safely held many of these. My concern is she hasn't won at a mile and a half for more than two years despite several attempts but the wet track does bring her right into the equation (4:2-1-0). Having said that she was only narrowly beaten in this race last year and was just two and a half lengths behind Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Cup.

Voleuse de Couers is another who will appreciate the rain because she's four from eight on affected ground but only one from seven on good tracks. She's another who will love the mile and a half because all five of her wins have been at 2300m+. I also really like the way she closed off the Australian Cup (below).

Sertorius was OK in the G1 Ranvet and he has two wins on slow/heavy tracks but I just query if he is a genuine G1 w-f-a galloper. There have been a few upsets in this race in the last dozen years though by horses we thought mightn't be up to it - Cedarberg, Littorio, Fiumicino, Blutigeroo, Freemason and Curata Storm.

Locky's Selections

8 It's a Dundeel
9 Silent Achiever
10 Voleuse de Couers
1 Fiorente

Other bets

Entirely Platinum (Rosehill Race 2 No. 4) has won all three starts this prep and I see no reason why he can't make it four out of four. The stable and the jockey are in great touch (especially when they combine) and he cantered in on a Heavy 9 first-up, albeit in much weaker company. All you can do is win however and this bloke keeps doing it - and the bookies continue to let us get on. $4.00. 

Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 2) has just got better with each run this campaign as the distances gradually got longer. She's on an Oaks path so the 2000m is no concern and she appears to be right on target following her dominant win at Kembla Grange in the G3 Keith Nolan Classic. At her one start on a Heavy 8 she took on older mares last Spring and trounced them by five lengths over this trip. The wide gate is a worry but they have 400m from the 2000m start before the have to negotiate a bend and I'm prepared to gamble on a bit of Blake Shinn magic which is why we can get $6.50.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

To put it simply - jockey James McDonald is flying.

He has ridden 18 winners in the last 21 days at a strike rate just a bit better than one in four.

He has a full book at Rosehill tomorrow but his best rides appear to be Junoob (Race 1 No. 2) SCR, Villa Verde (Race 6 No. 9) 3rd $2.80 place and Savvy Nature (Race 8 No. 5) 4th.

Rosehill

George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)

Gordon Lord Byron was the top rated horse in the race and he won. Missed the obvious. Speediness handled the wet track better than most including noted mudlarks Sacred Falls, Red Tracer and Eurozone. El Roca tried hard against older horses on a surface I don't think really suited him.

Locky's Selections

4 Sacred Falls (4th)

14 El Roca (3rd) $2.90 place
12 Red Tracer (10th)
15 Eurozone (15th)

Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)

The winner Criterion was far too good and will be the Derby favourite and deservedly so. Craig Newitt reported Teronado did not handle the wet track but that he felt like he was on the winner at the top of the straight. Thunder Fantasy was solid and Savvy Nature improved on a wet track. Saddle slipped on Puccini so that may be a forgive run and Dissident was average.

Locky's Selections

9 Teronado (3rd) $2.80 place
2 Dissident (6th)
4 Puccini (12th)
5 Savvy Nature (4th)

Other bets

Opinion (Rosehill Race 1 No. 3) has great wet track credentials and thrashed joint favourite Junoob the last time they met on severely affected ground. $3.10. 2nd. $1.40 place. Winner too good.

Temple of Boom (Rosehill Race 6 No. 6) is another who loves the wet. Won this race two years ago and his first-up effort was OK because he just couldn't go with them early over the 1000m and yet still wasn't far away at the end. The step up to 1100m appeals. $8.00. 6th. Every possible chance.

Knead the Dough (Rosehill Race 9 No. 13) is a fantastic each-way bet given his great form in the mud. $11.00. 12th. Poor.

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George Ryder Stakes preview

Sydney has been inundated with rain this week and the Rosehill track has copped more than 50mm in the last 7 days so look for those who can handle the sting out of the ground.

An abbreviated blog this week as I am away on holidays.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

To put it simply - jockey James McDonald is flying.

He has ridden 18 winners in the last 21 days at a strike rate just a bit better than one in four.

He has a full book at Rosehill tomorrow but his best rides appear to be Junoob (Race 1 No. 2), Villa Verde (Race 6 No. 9) and  and Savvy Nature (Race 8 No. 5).

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Heavy 9. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of showers. ***

George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Only four favourites have saluted in the last 12 years but having said that nine of the winners paid $7.50 or less. The other three, although double figure odds, were well in commission and highly rated gallopers. (Metal Bender $15, Rangirangdoo $15, Vision and Power $11). Four of the last eight winners were three-year-olds. No mare has won since 1986 but that stat may be flawed because this race used to be run on the same day as the G1 Queen of the Turf.

Sacred Falls won the G1 Doncaster Handicap last year on a bog track and beat Pierro in the process. That'll do me. El Roca loomed to win last start but that missed run over 1400m probably told. He will be fitter for that. Red Tracer is an absolute duck but the query is a strong 1500m versus the boys. Eurozone loves the sting out of the ground and wasn't too far behind El Roca and Dissident in the G1 Randwick Guineas.

Locky's Selections

4 Sacred Falls

14 El Roca
12 Red Tracer
15 Eurozone

Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** Late charge is an early scratching ***

11 of the last 12 winners paid $8 or less with the only exception being De Beers at $17 in 2006 so we really need to be focusing on the pointy end of the market.

I have to stick with my old mate Teronado here because I've been on him all along. Dissident has finally broken through for a couple of wins and can go on with it. The Kiwi Puccini has to be respected and Savvy Nature can improve on a wet track.

Locky's Selections

9 Teronado
2 Dissident
4 Puccini
5 Savvy Nature

Other bets

Opinion (Rosehill Race 1 No. 3) has great wet track credentials and thrashed joint favourite Junoob the last time they met on severely affected ground. $3.10. 

Temple of Boom (Rosehill Race 6 No. 6) is another who loves the wet. Won this race two years ago and his first-up effort was OK because he just couldn't go with them early over the 1000m and yet still wasn't far away at the end. The step up to 1100m appeals. $8.00.

Knead the Dough (Rosehill Race 9 No. 13) is a fantastic each-way bet given his great form in the mud. $11.00. 

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

In the last 10 days Peter Moody has trained doubles at Kyneton, Bendigo, Randwick and Yarra Glen.

He has just the two runners at Rosehill tomorrow in Flamberge (Race 1 No. 2) 4th and A Time for Julia  (Race 7 No. 11) 4th. He also has quite a few runners in Melbourne too.

Also had Office Bearer (Sandwon Race 6 No. 10) 1st $9.00 win / $2.90 place.

Rosehill

Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares quality handicap)

Jim Cassidy take a bow. Sweet Idea, Catkins and A Time for Julia tried to run down Steps in Time but couldn't.

Locky's Selections

11 A Time for Julia (4th)
1 Catkins (3rd) $2.10 place
8 Sharnee Rose (7th)
4 Steps in Time (1st) $10.00 win / $4.00 place

Any 2 4-1 $9.30

Ranvet Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Slow tempo early made it impossible for anything back to run them down but Fiorente was still disappointing and It's a Dundeel just so-so.

Locky's Selections

2 It's a Dundeel (3rd) $1.40 place
1 Fiorente (7th)
3 Foreteller (8th)
4 Hawkspur (4th)

Other bets

Va Pensiero (Rosehill Race 1 No. 4) has won his last two two first-up appearances including the G3 San Domenico last Spring. The following start he won the G3 Run to the Rose beating Dissident. Two wins here at Rosehill next to his name including one at the 1100m. $10 appeals on an each-way basis. 2nd. $2.30 place. Winner led all the way and this bloke chased hard but just couldn't get there.

Let's Make Adeal (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6) wasn't far away in the G1 Australian Cup (below) and only Fiorente and Foreteller ran a faster final 1000m. They're going around in the G1 Ranvet whereas this girl gets the easier G3 assignment. Worth a tickle each-way at the $7. 4th. Looking for further now.

Monton (Rosehill Race 6 No. 2) continues the each-way theme and at $16 why not? His last five runs have been full of merit with three wins and a third placing when he also should have won. He was only three lengths away last start in the G1 Chipping Norton behind the likes of Boban, It's a Dundeel, Hawkspur and Moriarty. That's good enough form for a gamble here despite the presence of some nice types who will make it tough. 5th. May have run third but for a bump at the top of the straight.

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Randwick Guineas preview

With the Melbourne Autumn Carnival behind us all attention now swings to Sydney and that usually means one thing - look out for Gai Waterhouse. Particularly seeing we are at Randwick.

The G1 Randwick Guineas has not been kind to Gai with just one win for Tulloch Lodge from 18 starters in the race over the last 20 years. They have a few solid chances tomorrow in Bull Point, Romantic Touch and Woodbine but meet stiff opposition in the form of El Roca, Eurozone, Dissident, Atlante, Criterion, Savvy Nature and Teronado.

Waterhouse doesn't have a runner in the G1 Canterbury Stakes - a race she has won the last three years running and six times overall. This year's renewal is dominated by Chris Waller's four-pronged attack with Zoustar, Red Tracer, Sacred Falls and My Kingdom of Fife and Guy Walter's trio Appearance, Streama and Toydini.

The G2 Challenge Stakes shapes as a speedfest with reigning champ Snitzerland and three time Group 1 winner Buffering sure to lead them a merry dance.

The two juvenile races could provide an insight into next month's Golden Slipper. Dance Hero won the Skyline Stakes in 2004 before claiming the nation's richest two-year-old race while Crystal Lily (2010) and Ha Ha (2001) won the Sweet Embrace before doing same. The winners of the 2009 editions (Manhattan Rain & Headway) both went on to place behind Phelan Ready. 

It doesn't stop there with Bendigo hosting a stand alone Saturday metro meeting highlighted by two $150,000 Listed races in the Golden Mile and the Bendigo Guineas.

The action continues next week with the G3 Newcastle Newmarket on Wednesday followed by the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley next Friday night.

I think I will need a cup of tea and a lie down after all that.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

James McDonald may have just missed on It's a Dundeel last Saturday but he did get some consolation by claiming the last aboard Entirely Platinum. He followed that up with another win for Team Hawkes when Messene won the Listed National Sprint at Canberra on Black Opal Day last Sunday. It didn't stop there with a double the following day at Kembla Grange and a winner at Canterbury on Wednesday and Hawkesbury yesterday.

He has a full book of rides at Randwick tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Gold Force (Race 1 No. 1), Junoob (Race 3 No. 7), Savvy Nature (Race 7 No. 6) and Not Listenin'tome (Race 8 No. 10).

Randwick

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 6. The forecast is for isolated showers from early tomorrow afternoon. ***

Randwick Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Since this race (previously known as the Canterbury Guineas) shifted to Randwick and a mile in 2006 only one winner has returned more than $7. In those eight years four favourites have won and two placed. Five of the last six winners drew barrier five or inside. Several of the main hopes have fared poorly in the barrier draw namely Romantic Touch (15), El Roca (14), Dissident (13) and Woodbine (11).

The traditional lead-up to this event is the G2 Haboartville Stakes won by Dissident a fortnight ago. Outside the winner the two eye catchers were Atlante (picked himself up again after looking gone) and Savvy Nature (first-up). Woodbine was just OK but keep in mind that was run on a Slow 7. Does that mean we overlook the poor runs of Romantic Touch and Koroibete?

That was the race marred by the controversial scratching of El Roca who was then forced to run last week against older horses in the G3 Liverpool City Cup. He couldn't match Terravista's turn of foot but he was coming again on the line and back to his own age and up to a mile looks ideal.

The other major form line is the Australian Guineas. Out of that race I thought Criterion (strong through the line) and Teronado (got too far back, best closing sectionals) were the best runs. Eurozone appeared to have every possible chance as did Late Charge and Rock Hero.

Bull Point is the hard one to get a line through because he's come via the G1 Futurity Stakes. He started favourite and on face value you'd have to say he was disappointing but let's not forget he was having just his eighth career start and at the finish was less than a length and a half behind seasoned older gallopers like Moment of Change, Sertorius and Pinwheel.

I'm banking on El Roca getting through the wet track and overcoming the wide gate. Bull Point and Eurozone have solid w-f-a form and handle all surfaces. Teronado the best roughie for exotics.

Competitive race.

Locky's Selections

2 El Roca
7 Bull Point
5 Eurozone
12 Teronado

Canterbury Stakes (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

In the 11 years since Shogun Lodge claimed this race at $21 in 2001 seven favourites have saluted and no winner has paid more than $5.50. Four of those were three-year-olds. This is however the first time the race has been run at Randwick.

Quite a few here with no tactical speed so expect Appearance, My Kingdom of Fife, Sacred Falls, Toydini and Zoustar all to get back. Rain Affair leads. Red Tracer, Streama and Not Listenin'tome all handy. Speediness probably just off them.

I'm sticking with Zoustar because as long time followers will know I think he could be the best horse in the land. Jim Cassidy has won this race four times so that's a big plus. Red Tracer will appreciate the soft track and being second-up. Not Listenin'tome is an exciting young horse on the rise and Appearance just keeps winning although I'm a bit concerned about the drop back in trip and the interrupted prep.

Locky's Selections

9 Zoustar
8 Red Tracer
10 Not Listenin'tome
6 Appearance

Challenge Stakes (Group 2, 1000m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Snitzerland won this race last year at Warwick Farm and set a track record in the process. Last Spring she gave Lankan Rupee 2.5kg in a race down the Flemington straight and was just beaten. Her first-up win in the G1 Lightning was superb. That'll do me.

Buffering is the only danger for mine but I don't think 1000m first-up suits. I think he'll be better in four weeks in the G1 T.J. Smith. I think the one run the mare has under her belt will be his undoing. Having said that he's only been beaten once from four attempts at 1000m (3rd in the G1 Lightning behind Black Caviar and Hay List!) and he's only been beaten twice from eight attempts first-up - the aforementioned G1 Lightning and a second to Samaready in the G1 Moir last Spring.

I couldn't possibly back anything else to win. The best roughies if the track is wet are Temple of Boom and Tiger Tees.

Locky's Selections

7 Snitzerland
1 Buffering
5 Temple of Boom
6 Tiger Tees

Other bets

Any Day Will Do (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) took on some good mares last weekend in the likes of Catkins, Sharnee Rose, Dear Demi and Fire Up Fifi and has obviously come through the run well because they are backing her up tomorrow. This is a much easier race than that and she will appreciate stepping up to the 1600m – a distance at which she has two wins and a second from three attempts including last November’s Goulburn Cup. A really wet track would be a concern however. $7.00.

A Time for Julia (Randwick Race 6 No. 6) looked good winning fresh than beat all bar the talented Red Tracer last time out in the G2 Millie Fox Stakes. She is a lightly raced, talented young mare on an upward spiral in a race where there doesn’t appear to be any world beaters. Well placed on the 55kg minimum. $3.80.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Mick Price has had 12 winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of nearly one winner for every three runners.

He has some strong chances tomorrow including Lankan Rupee (Flemington Race 6 No. 2) 1st $6.00 win / $2.50 place, Samaready (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) 6th and across the border he has Justthewayyouare (Morphettville Race 2 No. 6) 2nd $1.50 place.

Flemington

Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Fiorente just continues to impress. Green Moon was brave in defeat. Foreteller looks set for back-to-back G1 Ranvet Stakes.

Locky's Selections

1 Fiorente (1st) $2.10 win / $1.30 place
4 Foreteller (3rd) $2.30 place
8 Shamus Award (6th)
5 Star Rolling (9th)

Any 2 1-4 $4.30

Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)

Lankan Rupee was dominant and is a live chance in anything he contests. Hard to make excuses for the rest.

Locky's Selections

2 Lankan Rupee (1st) $6.00 win / $2.50 place
9 Unpretentious (4th)
4 Shamexpress (6th)
3 Samaready (9th)

Warwick Farm

Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Boban bounced back to form with Glyn Schofield back in the saddle. It's a Dundeel may have won if held up for a bit longer. Good to see Hawkspur back to his best.

Locky's Selections

3 Hawkspur (3rd) $3.00 place
1 It's a Dundeel (2nd) $1.20 place
5 Monton (4th)
4 Moriarty (5th)

Any 2 1-3 $4.80

Other bets

Fire Up Fifi (Warwick Farm Race 4 No. 3) has had 12 career wins and eight of them have come on rain affected tracks. She's won three times second-up including last prep when she claimed the G2 Blazer Stakes at Flemington beating Catkins. A high class mare who was competitive against the likes of Red Tracer in the Spring before narrowly missing a G1 in Perth when just edged out in the Railway Stakes. At $7 I think she is an each-way pinch. 5th.

Arabian Gold (Warwick Farm Race 7 No. 7) is in a tough race against some talented fillies but I will be having a tickle each-way at the $17 on offer. She's three from three on slow/heavy ground and unbeaten in two second-up runs. She finished better than anything last start in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes and the step up to 1400m is a big plus. 8th.

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Australian Cup preview

A massive week of racing ahead with three Group 1's tomorrow, the Black Opal meeting in Canberra on Sunday followed by the Adelaide Cup on Monday and the G2 Alister Clarke Stakes at Moonee Valley next Friday.

The downside is the wet track at Warwick Farm with Sydney inundated with rain in the last week and a half.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Mick Price has had 12 winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of nearly one winner for every three runners.

He has some strong chances tomorrow including Lankan Rupee (Flemington Race 6 No. 2), Samaready (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) and across the border he has Justthewayyouare (Morphettville Race 2 No. 6).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for isolated showers in the morning but a mostly sunny afternoon. ***

Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

A good race for the bookies in the last 20 years with just three favourites saluting, the last one being Lonhro in 2004. Having said that in the same period only three winners returned double figure odds so the winner is usually in commission. Super Cool last year was the first three-year-old to win since Saintly in 1996 so it can be done but it doesn't happen often.

Fiorente is hard to knock. Every single start he has had in this country has been good. Defied the tempo to circle the field and win last start. Hard to see any of them turning it around. If I had to look for a negative it could be that he had a gutbuster over 1800m first-up after almost 16 weeks off the scene and that could flatten him second-up. Also, do we read anything into the fact that the second horse was $151 and hadn't won since last year's Sydney Cup?

Shamus Award won the Cox Plate (below) beating Fiorente (3rd), Foreteller (4th) and Green Moon (9th) but this time around they meet him 5kg better off and I doubt Star Rolling will let him have a soft lead like he got away with that day. He is extremely consistent though and he does seem to rise for the big occasion.

Thunder Fantasy chased Shamus Award home last week and he gave the impression that the further they go the better he'll get so the 2000m holds no fears. Trainer almost pinched this race last year with another three-year-old in Fiveandahalfstar.

Foreteller had better closing splits than Fiorente in the Peter Young but he just got too far back in a dawdling affair. He has been a bit of a giant killer in the past with upset wins in the  Makybe Diva Stakes ($15), Ranvet ($31), last year's Peter Young ($14) and the Coongy ($10). A major player.

Stewards have been advised that Green Moon will be ridden "in a positive position" and that the intent with stablemate Mourayan will be to be positive and "be forward or lead". They both went great first-up and Macedon Lodge does make a habit of winning these big Flemington Group 1's. I've got neither in my top four but I'm wary of both.

Star Rolling is two from two at the Flemington 2000m and he nearly pinched the G2 Peter Young Stakes from the front when allowed to dictate in the lead. If he gets a similar run in transit tomorrow he'll give them something to chase down but I doubt that will be the case.

Locky's Selections

1 Fiorente
4 Foreteller
8 Shamus Award
5 Star Rolling

Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

No need to shy away from backing topweights in this race with seven of the last 10 winners carrying 55kg or more. Only three horses have paid more than $5.50 in that same period so horses at the pointy end of the market have dominated. Eight three-year-olds have won the race in the last 15 years including five of the last 10.

Shamexpress won this race last year beating Moment of Change by a short head and meets him 4kg worse off this year. Only Razor Sharp (1982-83) has won this race back-to-back in the last 50 years.

Lankan Rupee is hard to fault. He's won five from six since being gelded including a G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) in devastating fashion and a victory over Snitzerland down the straight here at Flemington in the Spring. 

Samaready is poorly in at the weights compared to last time out in the G1 Lightning Stakes. She chased Shamexpress home on that day and meets him 2kg worse off. Pago Rock and Unpretentious were right on her heels and they meet her 5kg better off.

Moment of Change couldn't win last year with 56.5kg and will have to carry 1.5kg more this year but he is in much better form. He'd have to be a good horse to do it because the only others to carry 58kg or more and win in the last 55 years are Black Caviar, Hay List and Shaftesbury Avenue.

Knoydart is another who has really turned the corner since being gelded. He just got too far back at Caulfield but he was one of the best closers and the step to 1200m will help. An unknown quantity down the Flemington straight however.

Unpretentious is the best rough chance for mine. He's not a first-up horse and he's not a 1000m horse and he's not a w-f-a horse so his run in the G1 Lightning (below) was full of merit. Second-up at 1200m at Flemington is ideal now that he's back to handicap conditions and down in the weights. He meets Samaready 5kg better off and Shamexpress 3kg. Barrier 14 is good for him because he should be able to find clear running room when he needs it.

Spirit of Boom meets Lankan Rupee 1.5kg better off for his one and a quarter length defeat in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. The worry is that although he's been placed five times at Flemington in eight starts here he has never won.

Bernabeu apparently didn't handle the wettish track in the G1 Lightning so it may pay to overlook that failure. You'd have to be a very forgiving type because he was beaten 12 lengths. Lightly weighted three-year-olds do have a good recent record however - think Shamexpress, Wanted and Alinghi. 

Fontelina has won the last two G2 Salinger Stakes over the "straight six" course here at Flemington on Derby Day. He hasn't run a place in his five other starts here and his first-up run in the Spring over this course was only so-so.

This could end up being one for the "swoopers" with Moment of Change, Bernabeu and Va Pensiero sure to inject plenty of early speed into the race.

Track specialist : Flamberge (5:3-1-0) * 2 from 2 at 1200m

Best first-up : Va Pensiero (3:2-0-0)

Best second-up : Samaready (2:2-0-0)

Locky's Selections

2 Lankan Rupee
9 Unpretentious
4 Shamexpress
3 Samaready

Warwick Farm

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 6. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with isolated showers. ***

Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

It's a Dundeel scored one of his biggest wins here at the Warwick Farm 1600m when he claimed the G1 Randwick Guineas (below) this time last year defeating subsequent G1 winners Rebel Dane (Rupert Clarke) and Sacred Falls (Doncaster). He's been unplaced his last two first-up runs but both were at 1400m and both were high quality races. Looked good winning a recent Randwick trial by two lengths so he's obviously been tuned up for this.

Boban is racing like a horse who is looking for further and that may well be the case given the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) is worth $4M this year. He isn't dashing at the end of his races the way he did in the Spring and the wet track is a concern too so I couldn't possibly be enticed to take the short odds on offer. Particularly seeing Moriarty gave him a cold last time out.

Hawkspur is the best wet tracker in the race and last prep his best performance came second-up when he blitzed them over the mile at Randwick in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes. May pay to forgive his first-up failure because he was ridden outside of his comfort zone. Back to Sydney a plus.

Moriarty won third run into his last campaign but that was at 2000m. His record at 1600m is good with three wins and a second from just six attempts but he was safely held (four lengths) by Hawkspur in the aforementioned Chelmsford Stakes at his last try. His last start third from a clear last was enormous after taking a while to obtain clear running in the straight.

Monton is absolutely flying and got us the chocolates a fortnight ago despite having to lump 61.5kg. Probably should have won his last four with even luck. Wouldn't want the track any worse than dead. Big class rise.

Best wet tracker : Hawkspur (5:2-2-0)

Warwick Farm 1600m specialist : Monton (4:2-1-0)

Locky's Selections

3 Hawkspur
1 It's a Dundeel
5 Monton
4 Moriarty

Other bets

Fire Up Fifi (Warwick Farm Race 4 No. 3) has had 12 career wins and eight of them have come on rain affected tracks. She's won three times second-up including last prep when she claimed the G2 Blazer Stakes at Flemington beating Catkins. A high class mare who was competitive against the likes of Red Tracer in the Spring before narrowly missing a G1 in Perth when just edged out in the Railway Stakes. At $7 I think she is an each-way pinch.

Arabian Gold (Warwick Farm Race 7 No. 7) is in a tough race against some talented fillies but I will be having a tickle each-way at the $17 on offer. She's three from three on slow/heavy ground and unbeaten in two second-up runs. She finished better than anything last start in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes and the step up to 1400m is a big plus.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Team Hawkes has been on fire over the last 10 days. On February 19 they had a two state double (Sandown/Warwick Farm) and they were the only two horses they sent to the races. Two days later they took three horses to the Canterbury Friday night meeting and came away with two winners and a second. The very next day they had another two state double with Not Listenin'tome (Caulfield) and Leebaz (Randwick). Backed that up with three winners from three runners on Wednesday on the Kensington track. Their last 20 starters have returned nine wins and five placings (Win 45% / Place 70%).

Perhaps they can bag another two state double tomorrow. At Flemington they have Hostwin Pegasus (Race 1 No. 2) 6th and at Rosehill they have Mossfun (Race 4 No. 6) 1st $3.00 win / $1.70 place and Maysoon (Race 7 No. 3) 4th.

Flemington

Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

All points to Shamus Award who led them at a pretty good clip and was still able to kick. Criterion, Thunder Fantasy, Surge Ahead and Teronado look the ones to follow when they get up to 2000m+.

Locky's Selections

5 Hucklebuck (8th)
3 Eurozone (4th)
1 Shamus Award (1st) $ win / $ place
9 Teronado (5th)

Rosehill

Silver Slipper Stakes (Group 2, 1100m, 2-y-o set weights)

Mossfun was dominant and that's three from three now. The others will have to improve lengths to challenge her. Look out if the Golden Slipper is run on a wet track!

Locky's Selections

3 Risen from Doubt (3rd)
4 Modoc (6th)
1 Unencumbered (5th)
2 Law (4th)


Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

The race was marred by the sensational pre-race scratching of the favourite El Roca. Common sense should have prevailed but as usual when dealing with stewards it didn't. Self important, over officious little men with God complexes. Pathetic. Feel free to grow a pair anytime.

Locky's Selections

5 El Roca (SCR)
2 Romantic Touch (6th)
1 Dissident (1st) $4.10 win / $1.60 place
9 Woodbine (4th)

Other bets

Goldslick (Flemington Race 5 No. 5) ran really well fresh against the boys. She was caught wide but kept finding the line in the straight. Back to fillies and mares grade and down on the minimum will suit her a lot better. Second-up last time in she was just over a length behind Molto Bene and British General in a Listed race over this course and distance on Turnbull Stakes Day after being badly held up. Second-up the previous prep she won a mares handicap with 58kg by almost a length and a half, again here at the Flemington 1400m. $7.50. 8th. Poor.

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