Four G1's across two states - you couldn't wipe the smile off my face with turps.
That means there's plenty to get through so without further ado...
That means there's plenty to get through so without further ado...
FLEMINGTON
Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
In the last seven years four winners have come via the G1 Lightning, two via the G1 Oakleigh Plate and Redkirk Warrior was first-up last year. 3-y-o's have won nine of the last 18. Lightweights have a good record but that doesn't really help here because 13 of the 15 have 52.5kg or less. In straight races of late the rail really hasn't been the place to be.
Merchant Navy gets a big pull in the weights from his older rivals and Chad Schofield flies in from Hong Kong to take the reins. His barnstorming win at this track and trip in the G1 Coolmore had to be seen to be believed. He was just fair first-up but they did walk in front. Redkirk Warrior won this race (below) last year but goes up 5.5kg on that effort. He still has to be considered here though after his blistering finish to run down Redzel in the G1 Lightning. He loves Flemington. Brave Smash won last start in the G1 Futurity Stakes and drops back from 1400m to 1200m here an draws inside. Not a good recipe. Still his run last October in The Everest is good enough to see him competitive here. Rich Charm was just as good as Merchant Navy in that slowly run G2 Rubiton and he didn't get same the clear passage that the 3-y-o enjoyed. His win in slick time at this track and trip last November in the G2 Linlithgow was the win of a very good horse.
Booker was enormous in the G1 Oakleigh Plate after drawing wide and having to work early. She was still there whacking away at the end. I think the G1 Lightning is a stronger form race. Catchy is another I'm avoiding for the same reason although it was still a good run last start. The last 3-y-o filly to win this was Alinghi in 2005. Supido drops 6kg on his fourth placing in the G1 Lightning three weeks ago and as I've said that does look the right lead-up form. He's four from six here at Headquarters and I like the barrier draw. Thronum was very good at Moonee Valley two runs back before tiring (below) in the G1 Futurity after doing all the donkey work in front. He has three wins and a second from four runs at 1200m but is an unknown quantity down the straight.
Missrock flashed home in the G1 Lightning last start but she was in the best part of the track. He drops 4.5kg here and Craig Newitt has won this race three times before. In her six runs down the straight she has a win and three placings. So Si Bon on the other hand has had eight runs at Flemington for just two second placings. He's drawn in the best part of the track but it's hard to win this race fresh. He's in the right yard though. Rock Magic is my best longshot. His last two straight runs in the G1 Darley (below) and the G1 Lightning were great given he was on the inferior inside going. He drops 6kg on his last start run at w-f-a. Ken's Dream has won his last two starts at Flemington and in between he wasn't far off them in a G2 Australia Stakes. He ran fast time last start with 58kg and drops to 52kg here. It wasn't a strong race though.
The bottom three in the market look out of their depth.
Merchant Navy gets a big pull in the weights from his older rivals and Chad Schofield flies in from Hong Kong to take the reins. His barnstorming win at this track and trip in the G1 Coolmore had to be seen to be believed. He was just fair first-up but they did walk in front. Redkirk Warrior won this race (below) last year but goes up 5.5kg on that effort. He still has to be considered here though after his blistering finish to run down Redzel in the G1 Lightning. He loves Flemington. Brave Smash won last start in the G1 Futurity Stakes and drops back from 1400m to 1200m here an draws inside. Not a good recipe. Still his run last October in The Everest is good enough to see him competitive here. Rich Charm was just as good as Merchant Navy in that slowly run G2 Rubiton and he didn't get same the clear passage that the 3-y-o enjoyed. His win in slick time at this track and trip last November in the G2 Linlithgow was the win of a very good horse.
Booker was enormous in the G1 Oakleigh Plate after drawing wide and having to work early. She was still there whacking away at the end. I think the G1 Lightning is a stronger form race. Catchy is another I'm avoiding for the same reason although it was still a good run last start. The last 3-y-o filly to win this was Alinghi in 2005. Supido drops 6kg on his fourth placing in the G1 Lightning three weeks ago and as I've said that does look the right lead-up form. He's four from six here at Headquarters and I like the barrier draw. Thronum was very good at Moonee Valley two runs back before tiring (below) in the G1 Futurity after doing all the donkey work in front. He has three wins and a second from four runs at 1200m but is an unknown quantity down the straight.
Missrock flashed home in the G1 Lightning last start but she was in the best part of the track. He drops 4.5kg here and Craig Newitt has won this race three times before. In her six runs down the straight she has a win and three placings. So Si Bon on the other hand has had eight runs at Flemington for just two second placings. He's drawn in the best part of the track but it's hard to win this race fresh. He's in the right yard though. Rock Magic is my best longshot. His last two straight runs in the G1 Darley (below) and the G1 Lightning were great given he was on the inferior inside going. He drops 6kg on his last start run at w-f-a. Ken's Dream has won his last two starts at Flemington and in between he wasn't far off them in a G2 Australia Stakes. He ran fast time last start with 58kg and drops to 52kg here. It wasn't a strong race though.
The bottom three in the market look out of their depth.
Locky's Bets
BOXED TRIFECTA
1st 1x6x12
2nd 1x4x5x6x11x12
3rd 1x4x5x6x11x12
*** There are no early scratchings ***
*** There are no early scratchings ***
1st 1x6x12
2nd 1x4x5x6x11x12
3rd 1x4x5x6x11x12
Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Gailo Chop is the clear favourite on the back of his authoritative win two weeks ago (below) in the G2 Peter Young. It was a good day to be a leader though and I see a bit more pace here. Single Gaze fought hard behind him that day and she looks to have come back in good order. Don't forget she ran 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Cup last Spring. Almandin will appreciate getting back to w-f-a and he's a three-time winner at Flemington. He was good fresh with the 60kg. The Taj Mahal beat him home in the G2 Sandown Classic at the end of last campaign following a strong fourth in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes.
Homesman made a good impression at his first start on Australian soil winning the Listed Mornington Cup Prelude a fortnight ago. He got a 3.5kg swing from his stablemate Almandin that day. Hartnell is starting to test my patience. Ambitious has good form around strong types back in Japan. Ventura Storm split Winx and Humidor in the Spring in the G1 Turnbull.
Homesman made a good impression at his first start on Australian soil winning the Listed Mornington Cup Prelude a fortnight ago. He got a 3.5kg swing from his stablemate Almandin that day. Hartnell is starting to test my patience. Ambitious has good form around strong types back in Japan. Ventura Storm split Winx and Humidor in the Spring in the G1 Turnbull.
Locky's Bets
11. Single Gaze EACH-WAY
RANDWICK
*** At time of publication a track was rated a Slow 5. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers. ***
Randwick Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
The top three in the market come off a 1-2-3 finish (below) in the G2 Hobartville two weeks ago.
Kementari was impressive that day but he had the ideal lead-up with a dominant fresh win in the G3 Eskimo Prince a fortnight prior. D'Argento hadn't run for five weeks going into that run so he has room for improvement and the extra 200m looks ideal. He'll have to go back from the wide gate. Pierata hadn't run for six weeks so he will strip fitter here too and draws much more favourably. I got $21 about him eight weeks ago so I'll have to stay solid.
Peaceful State backs up after his strong 2nd in the G1 Australian Guineas last week. I just feel the Sydney 3-y-o's have the edge on their southern counterparts so I'm looking elsewhere. Trapeze Artist was excellent fresh and just so-so last run. He could bounce back without surprising because he is a G1 Golden Rose winner. Ace High looks on track for a nice prep but I'm waiting for 2000m+. Kaonic has ability.
Locky's Bets
5. Pierata EACH-WAY
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Canterbury Stakes (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Clearly Innocent on top here second-up and out to 1300m. He was blocked at a crucial stage last start and lost all momentum but still hit the line well. Happy Clapper won fresh last prep but that was at 1400m. He's not getting any younger either. Global Glamour is undeniably talented but she's hard to catch. Just the one win in her last 11 starts. Invincible Gem has trialled well and won first-up in the Spring in the G2 Missile Stakes beating Le Romain at w-f-a.
Showtime has put in two good runs this prep at w-f-a. He was on the heels of Brave Smash and Tosen Stardom last start. Endless Drama broke through for his first win since coming to Australia last time out. He's another who doesn't tend to win out of turn. Foxplay has only won one race since September 2016. She's hard to have. Tulip wasn't far off Redzel in The Everest.
Showtime has put in two good runs this prep at w-f-a. He was on the heels of Brave Smash and Tosen Stardom last start. Endless Drama broke through for his first win since coming to Australia last time out. He's another who doesn't tend to win out of turn. Foxplay has only won one race since September 2016. She's hard to have. Tulip wasn't far off Redzel in The Everest.
Locky's Bets
2. Clearly Innocent WIN
OTHER BETS
Palazzo Vecchio (Flemington Race 5 No. 7). was good from back last start on a day where the pacemakers dominated. She's building a nice record and the stable and jockey are on a roll too having claimed the G1 Australian Guineas last weekend. In her only other preparation she won at this trip second-up.
English (Randwick Race 5 No. 6) is three from three at 1000m with two of those wins coming here at Randwick in the last two editions of this race. In last year's renewal she beat Redzel. Clearly he is the one to beat but last start showed he is vulnerable.
Samovare (Flemington Race 7 No. 3) really came of age during the Spring. After winning a BM84 for fillies and mares she progressed to some strong Black Type races and acquitted herself well. She's unbeaten second-up and unbeaten at the mile. She chased hard behind the classy Silent Sedition last start.
English (Randwick Race 5 No. 6) is three from three at 1000m with two of those wins coming here at Randwick in the last two editions of this race. In last year's renewal she beat Redzel. Clearly he is the one to beat but last start showed he is vulnerable.
Good punting!
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