Just the one G1 this week so I get a bit of a breather after last weekend.
We shift our attention from Flemington to Rosehill so hopefully we don't have to deal with the mad rail bias that we had last weekend.
We shift our attention from Flemington to Rosehill so hopefully we don't have to deal with the mad rail bias that we had last weekend.
ROSEHILL
Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares quality handicap)
*** Shumookh is an early scratching ***
In the last eight years only Steps In Time has carried more than 55kg to victory. Typhoon Tracy in 2009 was the last 3-y-o to win and also the last favourite to win. Since then six of the last eight winners returned $11 - $26 for the win with an average winning price in that period of $14. Barrier stats are pretty even across the board probably because the 1500m start at Rosehill affords them a long run to the first turn.
Dixie Blossoms has never won at Rosehill in seven attempts but has placed four times. She was beaten six and a half lengths (below) in this race last year with 56kg but she should get a lovely trail from the good draw. She has two wins and a second from four second-up appearances. Her fresh win from the back was very good. Egg Tart took on the boys last start and finished a luckless fourth to Crack Me Up in the G3 Liverpool City Cup. In four starts on wet tracks that's the only time she hasn't won. A two-time G1 winner must be respected but she gets back in her races so barrier three isn't ideal but on the plus side the speed should be genuine. Raiment was a close second to Dixie Blossoms last start and meets her 4.5kg better off tomorrow. She's won her last two third-up appearances but she's untried beyond 1400m. She was caught wide last start but a cushy run from barrier one will help here and hoop Michael Walker has won the G1 Australian Cup and G2 Adelaide Cup in the last week. Silent Sedition was pipped on the post (below) in this race 12 months ago but has an extra 3kg this time around. She deserves it though because she's won a G1 William Reid and a G3 Mannerism since. She demolished Samovare last start and that mare subsequently ran very well at Flemington last weekend without much luck.
Alizee has been extended beyond 1400m just twice for a win in the G1 Flight Stakes and a third in the G1 Thousand Guineas. She was electrifying fresh but pretty plain last start. She'll need luck from the wide draw too The last 3-y-o to win (Typhoon Tracy) carried only 51kg so she's not well placed. Daysee Doom has won four from eight at this track and placed on another three occasions. Trainer Ron Quniton saddled the winner of this race in 2012 and 2016. She finished fourth in this race last year (above) with 51kg and jumps to 57kg here. Barrier 14 is ugly but she did win the G2 Golden Pendant at this track second-up last prep. Francaletta made a solid Australian debut when a two length third in the G3 Guy Walter two weeks ago and she has a great overall record (10:6-1-1). Just like Raiment she meets Dixie Blossoms 4.5kg better off for last start and hopefully they won't go as hard in front tomorrow as they did at the previous run. From the great barrier draw I expect her to be up on the pace and giving them something to run down. Oregon's Day has been crunched ($26 into $15) since the final field was announced probably because of her super record (3:2-0-1) second-up. She's had just the one run in Sydney for a two length fifth in the G1 Queen Of The Turf last April (below) when she came home from the tail.
Bring Me Roses was good behind the boys (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas a fortnight ago but she drops back to 1500m here. No previous runs in Sydney but she's placed at six of her last seven starts including two G1's. Her one win came at a mile in the G2 Edward Manifold five starts ago. She opened at $21 but is now into $12. Prompt Response wasn't far away last time out when fourth to Daysee Doom and meets her 1.5kg to the good here. She has no wins beyond 1400m but was a narrow fourth at Flemington in the G1 Myer Classic at the mile last Spring. Gai Waterhouse has trained the winner of this race three times but her last victory was in 2004. Heavens Above won this race second-up last year (above) and has two seconds at her other two tries at the track and trip. She has to carry an extra 1.5kg this year but Tye Angland is the most successful jockey in recent times with wins last year and in 2010. Five second-up runs for two wins and two seconds. Eckstein has never won beyond 1300m but she was only just beaten at 1600m in the G1 Myer Classic last Spring with 57kg. She plummets to 53kg tomorrow. She meets Dixie Blossoms better at the weights for last start but meets Raiment worse.
Just Dreaming has never missed a top two finish in five runs at this track, five runs at this distance and three runs on rain affected tracks. Having said that she faces a massive class rise here jumping from a Provincial Championship Qualifier at Wyong to a G1. Aide Memoire flopped first-up in Australia but that was just her second career run on a firm track. Her last start seventh in the G2 Guy Walter was better than it looked because she went to the line hard held after running out of room in the straight. She opened at $41 and is now $23. Flippant won the G3 Frances Tressady last start. Typhoon Tracy (2009) and Aloha (2011) also won that race en route to victory here but Oregon's Day gets a 5kg swing in the weights over her from that run. Danish Twist finished third in a three-way photo in this race last year and drops 1.5kg. Other than that her record here (7:0-0-2) is terrible. Slightly Sweet was sixth in this race last year. I can't have her from the outside barrier. I can't entertain Zanbagh for the same reason.
A wide open race. Track and weather conditions will play a part (it's tipped to be a very hot day in Sydney) as will barriers and luck in running.
Locky's Bets
BOXED TRIFECTA
1st 7x13x14
2nd 1x7x9x13x14x15
3rd 1x7x9x13x14x15
1st 7x13x14
2nd 1x7x9x13x14x15
3rd 1x7x9x13x14x15
OTHER BETS
Demerara (Flemington Race 3 No. 5). looks a promising speedster with six starts for four wins, a third on Cox Plate Day and a fourth down the straight here at Flemington on VRC Oaks Day. I like the fact that she's drawn midfield because it gives the jockey options depending on how this track plays. She won't be any flash price so maybe use her as an anchor in some wider multis.
Nieta (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2). has had five first-up appearances for four wins. Her only "miss" came fresh last prep in the G3 Concorde when she finished third to Redzel and Spieth. Her record at the Rosehill 1100m is good too with a win and a second from two starts. Any give in the ground helps too because five of her six wins have come on slow or heavy.
Prized Icon (Rosehill Race 8 No. 1). looks spot on for this provided he wasn't Winx-ed at his last start (below) in the G1 Chipping Norton. That fresh run when he finished second to Lanciato giving him seven kilos is looking really good now. The knock is he hasn't won since the G1 Victoria Derby in October 2016. He has however finished second five times in his subsequent 10 runs and behind some pretty handy types too.
Nieta (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2). has had five first-up appearances for four wins. Her only "miss" came fresh last prep in the G3 Concorde when she finished third to Redzel and Spieth. Her record at the Rosehill 1100m is good too with a win and a second from two starts. Any give in the ground helps too because five of her six wins have come on slow or heavy.
Prized Icon (Rosehill Race 8 No. 1). looks spot on for this provided he wasn't Winx-ed at his last start (below) in the G1 Chipping Norton. That fresh run when he finished second to Lanciato giving him seven kilos is looking really good now. The knock is he hasn't won since the G1 Victoria Derby in October 2016. He has however finished second five times in his subsequent 10 runs and behind some pretty handy types too.
Good punting!
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