Winx will be the centre of attention when she resumes at Randwick tomorrow in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes but I'm not going to insult your intelligence by giving my tip for that race.
Instead I'll be focusing on the G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington and some of the other Black Type races around the country.
Instead I'll be focusing on the G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington and some of the other Black Type races around the country.
FLEMINGTON
Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Only one favourite has saluted in the last 10 years. Barrier stats are irrelevant as many recent renditions of this race have had 10 or fewer runners due to clashes with the G1 Randwick Guineas. Only three fillies have won in the last 30 years but that's to be expected considering they usually only account for about 10% of the field.
Cliff's Edge is back to set weights here after a narrow second to Grunt last start in the G3 C.S. Hayes. That was his ninth top two finish in a 12 start career. Yes he's drawn wide but without much pace drawn inside he should get across fairly easily. He's never won in four runs here but he was competitive against older horses (below) in the G1 Mackinnon three runs ago. Grunt has strung together three on end culminating in his aforementioned last start victory but he meets Cliff's Edge 3.5kg worse off here. Damien Oliver has only won this race once and it was way back in 2001 and it will take a peach of a ride from the grandstand barrier. Aloisia was just average first-up given the price she started but she was doing her best work late. Second-up last campaign she won the G1 1000 Guineas at this trip. It's interesting that regular rider Luke Nolen decided very early this prep to stick with Villermont. If successful she'll be the first filly to win this race since Mosheencobalted in bolted in six years ago.
They're the only three that have really been backed.
Addictive Nature has promised the world and delivered an atlas. He's never started at more than $4.60 but has been beaten four out of six times. Having said that his last two runs have been at w-f-a. He'll be up on the speed making his own luck and Craig Williams has won this race twice before. Mighty Boss won the G1 Caulfield Guineas at $101 last October beating home the exciting Kementari. A few of his rivals here finished further back. He was ridden more aggressively last start and it backfired so expect him to be ridden more quietly here. This will be easier than his last two runs at G1 w-f-a against the big guns. Villermont won the G2 Sandown Guineas at this journey at the end of his last campaign. He was backed like Phar Lap first-up and didn't get the cash but the vets reported he had a slow recovery so it may pay to be forgiving. His only defeat at 1600m came when he was ridden on pace which is not his cup of tea. Peaceful State was a close-up second to Villermont in that G2 Sandown Guineas but just had no match for the finish of the winner. His fresh win with 59kg from the outside gate was the run of a really good horse but he was pretty ordinary second-up. An improved showing wouldn't surprise especially now that he's getting out to the mile.
Cliff's Edge is back to set weights here after a narrow second to Grunt last start in the G3 C.S. Hayes. That was his ninth top two finish in a 12 start career. Yes he's drawn wide but without much pace drawn inside he should get across fairly easily. He's never won in four runs here but he was competitive against older horses (below) in the G1 Mackinnon three runs ago. Grunt has strung together three on end culminating in his aforementioned last start victory but he meets Cliff's Edge 3.5kg worse off here. Damien Oliver has only won this race once and it was way back in 2001 and it will take a peach of a ride from the grandstand barrier. Aloisia was just average first-up given the price she started but she was doing her best work late. Second-up last campaign she won the G1 1000 Guineas at this trip. It's interesting that regular rider Luke Nolen decided very early this prep to stick with Villermont. If successful she'll be the first filly to win this race since Mosheen
They're the only three that have really been backed.
Addictive Nature has promised the world and delivered an atlas. He's never started at more than $4.60 but has been beaten four out of six times. Having said that his last two runs have been at w-f-a. He'll be up on the speed making his own luck and Craig Williams has won this race twice before. Mighty Boss won the G1 Caulfield Guineas at $101 last October beating home the exciting Kementari. A few of his rivals here finished further back. He was ridden more aggressively last start and it backfired so expect him to be ridden more quietly here. This will be easier than his last two runs at G1 w-f-a against the big guns. Villermont won the G2 Sandown Guineas at this journey at the end of his last campaign. He was backed like Phar Lap first-up and didn't get the cash but the vets reported he had a slow recovery so it may pay to be forgiving. His only defeat at 1600m came when he was ridden on pace which is not his cup of tea. Peaceful State was a close-up second to Villermont in that G2 Sandown Guineas but just had no match for the finish of the winner. His fresh win with 59kg from the outside gate was the run of a really good horse but he was pretty ordinary second-up. An improved showing wouldn't surprise especially now that he's getting out to the mile.
Levendi had a win at this course and distance (below) in the G3 Carbine Club last November and Ben Melham has ridden him four times for three wins. Holy Snow and Mr So And So gave him windburn last start in the G2 Autumn Stakes but he gets a 2kg swing here and the blinkers go on for the first time. Holy Snow went straight from winning a Pakenham maiden to the G2 Stutt Stakes where has was a good closing third behind Showtime and Salsamor. He was spelled after his midfield effort in the G1 Caulfield Guineas next start and the break did him a lot of good judging by his last-to-first win first-up mentioned previously. Muraaqeb has had two runs this prep for thirds in the G3 Manfred (behind Cliff's Edge) and the G3 C.S. Hayes (behind Grunt). Mark Zahra was on board both times and jumps off here to ride Aloisia and this bloke has never won beyond 1200m.
Main Stage was hard to miss first-up when charging from near last into fourth in the G3 C.S. Hayes. He can be closer in the run from the good barrier and four starts back he did beat Cliff's Edge in the Listed UCI Stakes at this track. Can jockey Regan Bayliss cause another upset in a Flemington G1? Embellish has had two runs at the mile back in her native N.Z. for a win in the G1 2000 Guineas (below) and a second in the Karaka Classic. Opie Bosson flies in for just one ride and this colt will appreciate getting back to set weights. Bring Me Roses is looking to help Luke Currie and Tony McEvoy go back-to-back in this race. She finished almost two lengths in front of Aloisia last start (albeit with a 1kg advantage) and yet is three times the price here? She won the G2 Manifold at this track and trip in the Spring.
Mr So And So has just one win and it came in an Echuca maiden but he was very good two runs back when second behind Holy Snow in the G2 Autumn Stakes. He'll be rock hard fit on the backup from the 1800m of the G2 Autumn Classic last Saturday. Black Sail was a half length third to Villermont and Peaceful State in the G2 Sandown Guineas and has only missed a top four finish twice in his career. He should get a gun run here from the good gate and the blinkers come off for the first time. Salsamor has only one unplaced run in seven starts and has placed twice to Aloisia and once to Showtime - and that colt split Brave Smash and Tosen Stardom last week in the G1 Futurity. Hoop Jordan Childs won the G1 Blue Diamond on the same day.
This is a very deep race. Luck in running will be crucial.
Locky's Bets
7. Main Stage EACH-WAY
BOX TRIFECTA
1st 2x11x15
2nd 1x2x7x11x15x16
3rd 1x2x7x11x15x16
$15 gets 25%
BOX TRIFECTA
1st 2x11x15
2nd 1x2x7x11x15x16
3rd 1x2x7x11x15x16
$15 gets 25%
OTHER BETS
Fell Swoop (Flemington Race 8 No. 1) has not won for 12 starts but all those runs were at G1 or G2 level. Back to Listed grade here is much easier and he's been trialling well after a disappointing campaign last time in. His only start down the straight at Flemington was a half length third (below) in the G1 Darley Classic. He's being trained off the beach now and the change of scenery and some time off may be just what he needed.
Mackintosh (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) was easily held by Winx in that highly publicised track gallop a fortnight ago but he beat the rest easily and they ran very fast time. Add in the fact that he was under an absolute stranglehold over the closing stages and you could make an argument for a bold first-up showing here.
Shoals (Randwick Race 7 No. 1) is a silly price if you can forgive her poor fresh run. Jockey Mark Zahra suggested she may be better with blinkers and the shades go on here. Second-up last prep she ran past all bar the talented Booker in the G2 Tranquil Star at this journey. She beat older mares like Eckstein, Dixie Blossoms, Prompt Response and Foxplay in the G1 Myer Classic during the Flemington Carnival. She won the G2 Percy Sykes at this track in April last year on a rain affected track.
Good punting!
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