The Championships Week 1 - 07.04.2018

I never tip winners. 

Why are you people still reading this?

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication a track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a sunny day. ***

Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no an early scratchings ***

Fine weather all week sees us return to a good surface. Not much speed here. Arbeitsam and Invincible Gem press forward from wide gates but I can't see any others in a mad dash for the lead. Having said that I confess I haven't seen too many slowly run Doncasters. Waller trains six of the 16 while Weir and Lees have two apiece. D'Argento will carry 50kg and Invincible Gem 52.5kg because Corey Brown and Michael Walker have been granted permission by stewards to ride overweight.

Kementari and Happy Clapper find themselves at the top of the market. No real surprise there given they have the Winx form (below) and that eight of the last 14 winners came via the G1 George Ryder and all of them finished top four at their previous run. They map well from the inside gates too. Kementari meets Happy Clapper 2.5kg better off for last start but the latter does love the Randwick mile (6:3-2-0). D'Argento on the other hand is out in the car park and will need some Corey Brown magic to find a spot in the run. He drops back from the 2000m of the G1 Rosehill Guineas but it's a path trainer Chris Waller has trodden before with Sacred Falls completing the double in 2013. Humidor is the only other one under double figures and four of the last six winners carried 55kg or more. The last horse to win this with 58kg was Sunline. She was also the last horse to win this coming off a last start run in Melbourne.

It's $16+ the rest. Crack Me Up will have his admirers because he also has G1 George Ryder form (above) and drops 6kg on his last run. He's unbeaten at Randwick, his mile record is super (7:3-2-0) and he won the G2 Villiers at this track and trip four months ago. Comin' Through and Tom Melbourne get right down in the weights here and they beat home subsequent winners Cellarman and Arbeitsam when fighting out the finish in the G2 Ajax Stakes last start. That's the same race It's Somewhat collected en route to victory in this race last year but he was the first to do that double since Grand Armee in 2003.

Of the others Endless Drama looks as if he will get a good run from barrier three. It just seems an odd preparation for this - first-up 1400m, second-up 1300m then up to the mile third-up with four weeks between runs. Conversely Prized Icon is having his sixth run this prep. He was sixth-up when he won the G1 Champagne Stakes and again when he won the G1 Victoria Derby. His four runs at this course and distance have yielded two wins and a second placing to Winx. Egg Tart was backed off the map last time out in the G1 Coolmore and ran like wet paint but she has just 50.5kg here and is a two-time G1 winner. Trainer Chris Waller has won six of the last 10 editions of this race. Lanciato is flying and the wide barrier suits his style of racing. This is his acid test though. Invincible Gem has G1 George Ryder form but she needs to improve lengths on that run. Tosen Stardom has had some support at long odds. If you ignore his last start flop he was excellent prior in the G1 Futurity when narrowly beaten by Brave Smash. Arbeitsam was a dominant all-the-way winner last weekend. He won't know himself with 50kg  and Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times.

Locky's Tip

9. Kementari WIN

OTHER BETS

Oohood (Randwick Race 6 No. 13) is due for a change of luck surely after placings in both the G1 Blue Diamond and G1 Golden Slipper. She was strong through the line in both runs so the step-up to 1400m should suit her. Sure she's still a maiden but she's never missed a place in five runs and all were in Black Type races. Zac Purton - who partnered her in the Slipper - flies back to take the ride.

Ace High (Randwick Race 7 No. 1). has had the ideal preparation for this race and just keeps ticking along nicely. You know he will run out a strong trip whereas many of his rivals have to be a query. Even though he finished sixth last start in the G1 Rosehill Guineas (below) I liked his effort because he kept slogging to the line despite having a wide run without cover. He is a genuine Derby horse.

In Her Time (Randwick Race 8 No. 8). won very well first-up and as much respect as I have for Redzel (eight starts in the last year for seven wins and a second to Redkirk Warrior) the $4.20 looks more attractive than $2.30. She's three from three at the Randwick 1200m and can stalk the speed from barrier three.

Luvaluva (Randwick Race 10 No. 1) won the G2 Wakeful at this trip during the Spring and left a filly like Hiyaam in her wake. That form is looking pretty hot now. Yes to she has to lump the big weight but when you have 60kg and everyone else has 53kg I think it says a lot about the gulf in class. She's the best filly in the race by a mile and should just win. The last start victory at Kembla was gutsy and previously she closed very well behind quality colts like Kementari, D'Argento and Ace High in the G2 Hobartville.

Good punting!

G1 Coolmore Classic Day - 17.03.2018

Just the one G1 this week so I get a bit of a breather after last weekend.

We shift our attention from Flemington to Rosehill so hopefully we don't have to deal with the mad rail bias that we had last weekend.

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication a track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast was for a sunny afternoon. ***

Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Shumookh is an early scratching ***

In the last eight years only Steps In Time has carried more than 55kg to victory. Typhoon Tracy in 2009 was the last 3-y-o to win and also the last favourite to win. Since then six of the last eight winners returned $11 - $26 for the win with an average winning price in that period of $14. Barrier stats are pretty even across the board probably because the 1500m start at Rosehill affords them a long run to the first turn.

Dixie Blossoms has never won at Rosehill in seven attempts but has placed four times. She was beaten six and a half lengths (below) in this race last year with 56kg but she should get a lovely trail from the good draw. She has two wins and a second from four second-up appearances. Her fresh win from the back was very good.  Egg Tart took on the boys last start and finished a luckless fourth to Crack Me Up in the G3 Liverpool City Cup. In four starts on wet tracks that's the only time she hasn't won. A two-time G1 winner must be respected but she gets back in her races so barrier three isn't ideal but on the plus side the speed should be genuine. Raiment was a close second to Dixie Blossoms last start and meets her 4.5kg better off tomorrow. She's won her last two third-up appearances but she's untried beyond 1400m. She was caught wide last start but a cushy run from barrier one will help here and hoop Michael Walker has won the G1 Australian Cup and G2 Adelaide Cup in the last week. Silent Sedition was pipped on the post (below) in this race 12 months ago but has an extra 3kg this time around. She deserves it though because she's won a G1 William Reid and a G3 Mannerism since. She demolished Samovare last start and that mare subsequently ran very well at Flemington last weekend without much luck.

Alizee has been extended beyond 1400m just twice for a win in the G1 Flight Stakes and a third in the G1 Thousand Guineas. She was electrifying fresh but pretty plain last start. She'll need luck from the wide draw too The last 3-y-o to win (Typhoon Tracy) carried only 51kg so she's not well placed. Daysee Doom has won four from eight at this track and placed on another three occasions. Trainer Ron Quniton saddled the winner of this race in 2012 and 2016. She finished fourth in this race last year (above) with 51kg and jumps to 57kg here. Barrier 14 is ugly but she did win the G2 Golden Pendant at this track second-up last prep. Francaletta made a solid Australian debut when a two length third in the G3 Guy Walter two weeks ago and she has a great overall record (10:6-1-1). Just like Raiment she meets Dixie Blossoms 4.5kg better off for last start and hopefully they won't go as hard in front tomorrow as they did at the previous run. From the great barrier draw I expect her to be up on the pace and giving them something to run down. Oregon's Day has been crunched ($26 into $15) since the final field was announced probably because of her super record (3:2-0-1) second-up. She's had just the one run in Sydney for a two length fifth in the G1 Queen Of The Turf last April (below) when she came home from the tail.

Bring Me Roses was good behind the boys (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas a fortnight ago but she drops back to 1500m here. No previous runs in Sydney but she's placed at six of her last seven starts including two G1's. Her one win came at a mile in the G2 Edward Manifold five starts ago. She opened at $21 but is now into $12. Prompt Response wasn't far away last time out when fourth to Daysee Doom and meets her 1.5kg to the good here. She has no wins beyond 1400m but was a narrow fourth at Flemington in the G1 Myer Classic at the mile last Spring. Gai Waterhouse has trained the winner of this race three times but her last victory was in 2004. Heavens Above won this race second-up last year (above) and has two seconds at her other two tries at the track and trip. She has to carry an extra 1.5kg this year but Tye Angland is the most successful jockey in recent times with wins last year and in 2010. Five second-up runs for two wins and two seconds. Eckstein has never won beyond 1300m but she was only just beaten at 1600m in the G1 Myer Classic last Spring with 57kg. She plummets to 53kg tomorrow. She meets Dixie Blossoms better at the weights for last start but meets Raiment worse. 

Just Dreaming has never missed a top two finish in five runs at this track, five runs at this distance and three runs on rain affected tracks. Having said that she faces a massive class rise here jumping from a Provincial Championship Qualifier at Wyong to a G1. Aide Memoire flopped first-up in Australia but that was just her second career run on a firm track. Her last start seventh in the G2 Guy Walter was better than it looked because she went to the line hard held after running out of room in the straight. She opened at $41 and is now $23. Flippant won the G3 Frances Tressady last start. Typhoon Tracy (2009) and Aloha (2011) also won that race en route to victory here but Oregon's Day gets a 5kg swing in the weights over her from that run. Danish Twist finished third in a three-way photo in this race last year and drops 1.5kg. Other than that her record here (7:0-0-2) is terrible. Slightly Sweet was sixth in this race last year. I can't have her from the outside barrier. I can't entertain Zanbagh for the same reason.

A wide open race. Track and weather conditions will play a part (it's tipped to be a very hot day in Sydney) as will barriers and luck in running.

Locky's Bets

BOXED TRIFECTA

1st   7x13x14
2nd  1x7x9x13x14x15
3rd   1x7x9x13x14x15

OTHER BETS

Demerara (Flemington Race 3 No. 5). looks a promising speedster with six starts for four wins, a third on Cox Plate Day and a fourth down the straight here at Flemington on VRC Oaks Day. I like the fact that she's drawn midfield because it gives the jockey options depending on how this track plays. She won't be any flash price so maybe use her as an anchor in some wider multis.

Nieta (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2). has had five first-up appearances for four wins. Her only "miss" came fresh last prep in the G3 Concorde when she finished third to Redzel and Spieth. Her record at the Rosehill 1100m is good too with a win and a second from two starts. Any give in the ground helps too because five of her six wins have come on slow or heavy.

Prized Icon (Rosehill Race 8 No. 1). looks spot on for this provided he wasn't Winx-ed at his last start (below) in the G1 Chipping Norton. That fresh run when he finished second to Lanciato giving him seven kilos is looking really good now. The knock is he hasn't won since the G1 Victoria Derby in October 2016. He has however finished second five times in his subsequent 10 runs and behind some pretty handy types too.

Good punting!

Super Saturday - 10.03.2108

Four G1's across two states - you couldn't wipe the smile off my face with turps.

That means there's plenty to get through so without further ado...

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication a track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a sunny day. ***

Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

In the last seven years four winners have come via the G1 Lightning, two via the G1 Oakleigh Plate and Redkirk Warrior was first-up last year. 3-y-o's have won nine of the last 18. Lightweights have a good record but that doesn't really help here because 13 of the 15 have 52.5kg or less. In straight races of late the rail really hasn't been the place to be.

Merchant Navy gets a big pull in the weights from his older rivals and Chad Schofield flies in from Hong Kong to take the reins. His barnstorming win at this track and trip in the G1 Coolmore had to be seen to be believed. He was just fair first-up but they did walk in front. Redkirk Warrior won this race (below) last year but goes up 5.5kg on that effort. He still has to be considered here though after his blistering finish to run down Redzel in the G1 Lightning. He loves Flemington. Brave Smash won last start in the G1 Futurity Stakes and drops back from 1400m to 1200m here an draws inside. Not a good recipe. Still his run last October in The Everest is good enough to see him competitive here. Rich Charm was just as good as Merchant Navy in that slowly run G2 Rubiton and he didn't get same the clear passage that the 3-y-o enjoyed. His win in slick time at this track and trip last November in the G2 Linlithgow was the win of a very good horse.

Booker was enormous in the G1 Oakleigh Plate after drawing wide and having to work early. She was still there whacking away at the end. I think the G1 Lightning is a stronger form race. Catchy is another I'm avoiding for the same reason although it was still a good run last start. The last 3-y-o filly to win this was Alinghi in 2005. Supido drops 6kg on his fourth placing in the G1 Lightning three weeks ago and as I've said that does look the right lead-up form. He's four from six here at Headquarters and I like the barrier draw. Thronum was very good at Moonee Valley two runs back before tiring (below) in the G1 Futurity after doing all the donkey work in front. He has three wins and a second from four runs at 1200m but is an unknown quantity down the straight.

Missrock flashed home in the G1 Lightning last start but she was in the best part of the track. He drops 4.5kg here and Craig Newitt has won this race three times before. In her six runs down the straight she has a win and three placings. So Si Bon on the other hand has had eight runs at Flemington for just two second placings. He's drawn in the best part of the track but it's hard to win this race fresh. He's in the right yard though. Rock Magic is my best longshot. His last two straight runs in the G1 Darley (below) and the G1 Lightning were great given he was on the inferior inside going. He drops 6kg on his last start run at w-f-a. Ken's Dream has won his last two starts at Flemington and in between he wasn't far off them in a G2 Australia Stakes. He ran fast time last start with 58kg and drops to 52kg here. It wasn't a strong race though.

The bottom three in the market look out of their depth.

Locky's Bets

BOXED TRIFECTA

1st   1x6x12
2nd  1x4x5x6x11x12
3rd   1x4x5x6x11x12

Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Gailo Chop is the clear favourite on the back of his authoritative win two weeks ago (below) in the G2 Peter Young. It was a good day to be a leader though and I see a bit more pace here. Single Gaze fought hard behind him that day and she looks to have come back in good order. Don't forget she ran 2nd in the G1 Caulfield Cup last Spring. Almandin will appreciate getting back to w-f-a and he's a three-time winner at Flemington. He was good fresh with the 60kg. The Taj Mahal beat him home in the G2 Sandown Classic at the end of last campaign following a strong fourth in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes.

Homesman made a good impression at his first start on Australian soil winning the Listed Mornington Cup Prelude a fortnight ago. He got a 3.5kg swing from his stablemate Almandin that day. Hartnell is starting to test my patience.  Ambitious has good form around strong types back in Japan. Ventura Storm split Winx and Humidor in the Spring in the G1 Turnbull.

Locky's Bets

11. Single Gaze EACH-WAY

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication a track was rated a Slow 5. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers. ***

Randwick Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

The top three in the market come off a 1-2-3 finish (below) in the G2 Hobartville two weeks ago.

Kementari was impressive that day but he had the ideal lead-up with a dominant fresh win in the G3 Eskimo Prince a fortnight prior. D'Argento hadn't run for five weeks going into that run so he has room for improvement and the extra 200m looks ideal. He'll have to go back from the wide gate. Pierata hadn't run for six weeks so he will strip fitter here too and draws much more favourably. I got $21 about him eight weeks ago so I'll have to stay solid.

Peaceful State backs up after his strong 2nd in the G1 Australian Guineas last week. I just feel the Sydney 3-y-o's have the edge on their southern counterparts so I'm looking elsewhere. Trapeze Artist was excellent fresh and just so-so last run. He could bounce back without surprising because he is a G1 Golden Rose winner. Ace High looks on track for a nice prep but I'm waiting for 2000m+. Kaonic has ability.

Locky's Bets

5. Pierata EACH-WAY

Canterbury Stakes (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Clearly Innocent on top here second-up and out to 1300m. He was blocked at a crucial stage last start and lost all momentum but still hit the line well. Happy Clapper won fresh last prep but that was at 1400m. He's not getting any younger either. Global Glamour is  undeniably talented but she's hard to catch. Just the one win in her last 11 starts. Invincible Gem has trialled well and won first-up in the Spring in the G2 Missile Stakes beating Le Romain at w-f-a.

Showtime has put in two good runs this prep at w-f-a. He was on the heels of Brave Smash and Tosen Stardom last start. Endless Drama broke through for his first win since coming to Australia last time out. He's another who doesn't tend to win out of turn. Foxplay has only won one race since September 2016. She's hard to have. Tulip wasn't far off Redzel in The Everest.

Locky's Bets

2. Clearly Innocent WIN

OTHER BETS

Palazzo Vecchio (Flemington Race 5 No. 7). was good from back last start on a day where the pacemakers dominated. She's building a nice record and the stable and jockey are on a roll too having claimed the G1 Australian Guineas last weekend. In her only other preparation she won at this trip second-up.

English (Randwick Race 5 No. 6) is three from three at 1000m with two of those wins coming here at Randwick in the last two editions of this race. In last year's renewal she beat Redzel. Clearly he is the one to beat but last start showed he is vulnerable.

Samovare (Flemington Race 7 No. 3) really came of age during the Spring. After winning a BM84 for fillies and mares she progressed to some strong Black Type races and acquitted herself well. She's unbeaten second-up and unbeaten at the mile. She chased hard behind the classy Silent Sedition last start.

Good punting!

G1 Australian Guineas / G1 Chipping Norton Stakes Day - 03.03.2018

Winx will be the centre of attention when she resumes at Randwick tomorrow in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes but I'm not going to insult your intelligence by giving my tip for that race.

Instead I'll be focusing on the G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington and some of the other Black Type races around the country.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication a track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a sunny day. ***

Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Only one favourite has saluted in the last 10 years. Barrier stats are irrelevant as many  recent renditions of this race have had 10 or fewer runners due to clashes with the G1 Randwick Guineas. Only three fillies have won in the last 30 years but that's to be expected considering they usually only account for about 10% of the field.

Cliff's Edge is back to set weights here after a narrow second to Grunt last start in the G3 C.S. Hayes. That was his ninth top two finish in a 12 start career. Yes he's drawn wide but without much pace drawn inside he should get across fairly easily. He's never won in four runs here but he was competitive against older horses (below) in the G1 Mackinnon three runs ago. Grunt has strung together three on end culminating in his aforementioned last start victory but he meets Cliff's Edge 3.5kg worse off here. Damien Oliver has only won this race once and it was way back in 2001 and it will take a peach of a ride from the grandstand barrier. Aloisia was just average first-up given the price she started but she was doing her best work late. Second-up last campaign she won the G1 1000 Guineas at this trip. It's interesting that regular rider Luke Nolen decided very early this prep to stick with Villermont. If successful she'll be the first filly to win this race since Mosheen cobalted in bolted in six years ago. 

They're the only three that have really been backed.

Addictive Nature has promised the world and delivered an atlas. He's never started at more than $4.60 but has been beaten four out of six times. Having said that his last two runs have been at w-f-a. He'll be up on the speed making his own luck and Craig Williams has won this race twice before. Mighty Boss won the G1 Caulfield Guineas at $101 last October beating home the exciting Kementari. A few of his rivals here finished further back. He was ridden more aggressively last start and it backfired so expect him to be ridden more quietly here. This will be easier than his last two runs at G1 w-f-a against the big guns. Villermont won the G2 Sandown Guineas at this journey at the end of his last campaign. He was backed like Phar Lap first-up and didn't get the cash but the vets reported he had a slow recovery so it may pay to be forgiving. His only defeat at 1600m came when he was ridden on pace which is not his cup of tea. Peaceful State was a close-up second to Villermont in that G2 Sandown Guineas but just had no match for the finish of the winner. His fresh win with 59kg from the outside gate was the run of a really good horse but he was pretty ordinary second-up. An improved showing wouldn't surprise especially now that he's getting out to the mile.

Levendi had a win at this course and distance (below) in the G3 Carbine Club last November and Ben Melham has ridden him four times for three wins. Holy Snow and Mr So And So gave him windburn last start in the G2 Autumn Stakes but he gets a 2kg swing here and the blinkers go on for the first time. Holy Snow went straight from winning a Pakenham maiden to the G2 Stutt Stakes where has was a good closing third behind Showtime and Salsamor. He was spelled after his midfield effort in the G1 Caulfield Guineas next start and the break did him a lot of good judging by his last-to-first win first-up mentioned previously. Muraaqeb has had two runs this prep for thirds in the G3 Manfred (behind Cliff's Edge) and the G3 C.S. Hayes (behind Grunt). Mark Zahra was on board both times and jumps off here to ride Aloisia and this bloke has never won beyond 1200m.

Main Stage was hard to miss first-up when charging from near last into fourth in the G3 C.S. Hayes. He can be closer in the run from the good barrier and four starts back he did beat Cliff's Edge in the Listed UCI Stakes at this track. Can jockey Regan Bayliss cause another upset in a Flemington G1? Embellish has had two runs at the mile back in her native N.Z. for a win in the G1 2000 Guineas (below) and a second in the Karaka Classic. Opie Bosson flies in for just one ride and this colt will appreciate getting back to set weights. Bring Me Roses is looking to help Luke Currie and Tony McEvoy go back-to-back in this race. She finished almost two lengths in front of Aloisia last start (albeit with a 1kg advantage) and yet is three times the price here? She won the G2 Manifold at this track and trip in the Spring.

Mr So And So has just one win and it came in an Echuca maiden but he was very good two runs back when second behind Holy Snow in the G2 Autumn Stakes. He'll be rock hard fit on the backup from the 1800m of the G2 Autumn Classic last Saturday. Black Sail was a half length third to Villermont and Peaceful State in the G2 Sandown Guineas and has only missed a top four finish twice in his career. He should get a gun run here from the good gate and the blinkers come off for the first time. Salsamor has only one unplaced run in seven starts and has placed twice to Aloisia and once to Showtime - and that colt split Brave Smash and Tosen Stardom last week in the G1 Futurity. Hoop Jordan Childs won the G1 Blue Diamond on the same day.

This is a very deep race. Luck in running will be crucial.

Locky's Bets

7. Main Stage EACH-WAY

BOX TRIFECTA 

1st 2x11x15 
2nd 1x2x7x11x15x16 
3rd 1x2x7x11x15x16 

$15 gets 25%

OTHER BETS

Fell Swoop (Flemington Race 8 No. 1) has not won for 12 starts but all those runs were at G1 or G2 level. Back to Listed grade here is much easier and he's been trialling well after a disappointing campaign last time in. His only start down the straight at Flemington was a half length third (below) in the G1 Darley Classic. He's being trained off the beach now and the change of scenery and some time off may be just what he needed.

Mackintosh (Randwick Race 5 No. 4) was easily held by Winx in that highly publicised track gallop a fortnight ago but he beat the rest easily and they ran very fast time. Add in the fact that he was under an absolute stranglehold over the closing stages and you could make an argument for a bold first-up showing here.

Shoals (Randwick Race 7 No. 1) is a silly price if you can forgive her poor fresh run. Jockey Mark Zahra suggested she may be better with blinkers and the shades go on here. Second-up last prep she ran past all bar the talented Booker in the G2 Tranquil Star at this journey. She beat older mares like Eckstein, Dixie Blossoms, Prompt Response and Foxplay in the G1 Myer Classic during the Flemington Carnival. She won the G2 Percy Sykes at this track in April last year on a rain affected track.

Good punting!