G1 Cox Plate Day - 28.102017

A very early blog this week as I am flying to Melbourne in the hope of witnessing history.

Can the great mare equal the record of the legendary Kingston Town and in the process surpass Makybe Diva as Australia's highest ever prize money winner?

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for the slight chance of a shower this evening and a medium chance of showers tomorrow. ***

Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** Voodoo Lad is an early scratching ***

Vega Magic was worse than midfield last start (below) which was curious given he's an on speed type and The Everest was only a moderately run race. Jockey Craig Williams blamed the barrier so hopefully from gate three he can be a lot closer tonight. This is his first look at The Valley but he's a nine time winner at the journey and has only missed a place once in 13 starts at the 1200m.

In Her Time has beaten G1 winners English and Impending at her last two runs and she's done it running sizzling times. With her good racing pattern and barrier two Corey Brown should get into a good spot early and she is a four time winner at the journey. Third-up last prep she was unlucky not to win the G1 Tatt's Tiara after covering more territory than the early explorers.

Chautauqua won this race (below) two years ago but his recent record isn't great. Since his big victory in May of last year in Hong Kong's G1 Chairmans Sprint he's had nine starts for just one win. Barrier 10 is better for him than being drawn in because it gives Dwayne Dunn options but I can't see this being run to suit him because I doubt they'll be hiking along in front.

English ran well in The Everest but it can't be ignored that she's won only once in 10 goes at 1200m. She hasn't won in her last nine starts and four of her five wins came either first or second-up. Still the stable had a winning treble at Caulfield last weekend and Mark Zahra enjoyed G1 success two weeks ago aboard Gailo Chop.

Viddora flashed home here two starts back here in the G1 Moir Stakes to just miss and then wasn't far away last start behind Super Cash in the G3 Schillaci Stakes. She has finished either first or second in her last six starts and although she's never won here she has filled a place at three out of four starts.

Hey Doc is unbeaten here but both wins were at 1500m+. Having said that his most recent win was at this trip three starts back (below) in the G3 Aurie's Star Handicap and the McEvoy/Currie combo has enjoyed Black Type success in recent weeks with Bring Me Roses and Cool Passion. The gate is awkward but he'll no doubt press forward. He's a G1 winner.

Super Cash has four wins at 1100m but just the one at this trip in seven starts. Interestingly the only time she has won second-up she came off a first-up loss. On the four occasions she won fresh she disappointed at her next run. The awkward gate doesn't help her chances either.

Malaguerra drew horribly last start and he fared no better this time around. At his only run at this course and distance he won the G2 Australia Stakes beating Black Heart Bart. Keeping that in mind I think that the step up to 1200m is in his favour especially given he's a six-time winner at the trip.

Rock Magic was a narrow second to Vega Magic in the G3 Colonel Reeves Stakes last November. That form looks pretty good now especially given he conceded him 3.5kg on that occasion. He won the G3 Belmont Sprint fourth run in last prep and he is a three-time winner at the trip and has four minor placings.

Spieth has promised the world and delivered an atlas. He's twice placed at the top level and is probably unlucky not to have won a G1 Lightning Stakes and a G1 Darley Classic but his last few runs have been just fair. He'll get back in the run so barrier four isn't ideal either. Nash Rawiller flies in from Hong Kong for the ride.

Locky's Tip

9. In Her Time WIN (because I cannot in good conscience back anything Craig Williams is riding at the moment)

Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Who will run second to Winx? Four Melbourne starts for four Melbourne wins by a combined margin of 20+ lengths. 21 in a row. The tag of "World's Best". Enough said.

Royal Symphony is attempting to become the third 3-y-o to win this race in the last nine years. He won't. Yes he has a massive weight advantage but he just gets too far back in his races and that makes it tough for him here because I can't see them trying to break any land speed records out in front. He does look like he'll get over a staying trip and this should tune him up nicely for the G1 V.R.C. Derby next Saturday.

Gailo Chop has six wins from nine runs at 2000m including last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes and his last start victory (below) in the G1 Caulfield Stakes. The runner-up on that occasion was Johannes Vermeer and he franked that form last Saturday when third in a messy G1 Caulfield Cup. He'll give them something to chase for a long way and I can't see anyone challenging him for the lead so he'll probably give a good kick.

Humidor has never missed a place at the trip (5:3-1-1) but he has a bad habit of laying in as he did last start in the G1 Caulfield Cup. Darren Weir has finally put the blinkers on here and he even sent him over the jumps during the week to get his mind on the job. It could do the trick or he could get even more fizzed up in the yard particularly now the "House Full" sign is up at Moonee Valley. He's likely to be giving them too much head start. 

Folkswood will find this a lot tougher than his last start victory in the Listed Cranbourne Cup but English trainer Charlie Appleby has a phenomenal strike rate in this country. In the last year he's won six Black Type races from just 14 starters and he's also finished second in a G1 Caulfield Cup, third in a G3 Geelong Cup and fourth in a G1 Melbourne Cup. The horse is two from three second-up and has never missed a place in four runs at the journey. 

Happy Clapper comes off a narrow last start defeat at odds-on in the G3 Craven Plate. The track favoured leaders that day however and he was ridden from well back in the field despite being much handier at his previous start (below) when victorious in the G1 Epsom Handicap. On paper his 2000m record is poor (5:0-1-1) but his "misses" were in a G1 Mackinnon Stakes, a G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and this race last year.

Kaspersky dropped right out of the G1 Toorak Handicap after going out faster than the Cincinnati Bengals in the play-offs. All of his nine career wins have come at 1600m-1700m and the last one of those was 10 starts and 15 months ago. Four starts at G1 level with his best performance being a third.

Seaburge has finished second in a G1 Gaulfield Guineas and second in a G1 Mackinnon Stakes and has done absolutely nothing else in his last 13 starts. His last start fifth in the G1 Toorak Handicap was his best run in almost a year but it was a swoopers race. Co-trainer Ben Hayes was brief following trackwork on Tuesday - "It will be fun watching Winx win".

Hardham is the only runner aside from the mighty mare who has won here previously. He claimed the G2 Alister Clark Stakes at this course and distance back in March before finishing third in the G1 A.T.C. Derby. He should be nice and fresh here because he offered absolutely nothing last week in the G1 Caulfield Cup.

Locky's Tip

Don't think you can actually make money by doing something cute like standing out Winx in a quinella/exacta/trifecta/first four because everyone else in the country will be doing the same thing and the field is too small to make it worthwhile.

(Yeah, OK, so I did it last year with Hartnell and Yankee Rose. Whatever.)

OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES

Big Duke (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 1) comes off a win in the St Leger and a gutsy second in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap (below) when he conceded the winner 4.5kg. In seven runs at 2400m or beyond he's notched four wins, two seconds (G1 & G3) and a third (G1) and he was won here at Moonee Valley previously. He's suited at the weights scale and drawn to get a lovely run. If you like him it may pay to have a little futures bet in "The Cup" at the $19 on offer because if he wins this that price will quickly disappear. 

Religify (Moonee Valley Race 8 No. 4) is out to his pet trip here. He's had five runs at the mile this year and he's won four and missed on a Heavy 8. He had to carry a stack of weight last start so back to w-f-a here suits and on dry tracks he's placed in 15 of his last 17 runs. He'll be on the speed from gate three and at The Valley that's usually the best place to be. Chris Waller + Hugh Bowman = YES.

Aloisia (Moonee Valley Race 10 No. 9) got me the chocolates in the G1 Thousand Guineas last start at an SP of $14 so I see no reason to jump ship. She was only 0.4 seconds slower overall than the winner of the G1 Toorak Handicap on the same day. She made use of the inside gate that day and can do so again here and with even luck I think she'll be winning this and then the G1 V.R.C. Oaks 12 days later.

Good punting!

G1 Caulfield Cup Day - 21.10.2017

The next 22 days will see 11 G1 races run across seven race meetings and three different tracks.

Kicking off the three week racing smorgasbord is tomorrow's G1 Caulfield Cup.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a medium chance of showers. ***

Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Can someone please explain to me why - for their biggest race of the year - the rail is out six metres?

Johannes Vermeer has never won beyond 2000m but at his only start at the trip he was only narrowly beaten in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown two starts back when giving the winner 6kg. He had his first look at this track last weekend and was visually impressive when a fast finishing second in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (below) behind all the way winner Gailo Chop. He has won twice before on a quick back-up. Heavily backed.

Bonneval ran in the same race last start (above) and pulled up lame and with lacerations following her disappointing sixth so I'm prepared to forgive her that one bad run. She's been cleared to run and trainer Murray Baker has said all along there's nothing wrong. She's two from two at 2400m (both G1's) and on handicap ratings she is the best weighted horse in the race. She has drawn very wide but she is a get back, run on horse. Just needs cover.

Humidor was no match for Winx when third last start (below) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes but he stuck to his task. He gave second placed Ventura Storm 2.5kg and a four length head start at the 300m but whittled the margin down to three quarters of a length on the line. Darren Weir has added a near side bubble cheeker and tongue tie because the horse  wanted to lay in late. From the handy draw I can see him getting into a good spot in transit.

Amelie's Star put a two length gap on them in the G3 Bart Cummings last start. Her previous run around this distance range was a three and a quarter length victory in the G3 Colin Stephen. Her only other run at the trip she won by nearly eight lengths. Unfortunately she's drawn wide but hoop Craig Williams is the most successful jockey in this race in recent years with wins on Southern Speed (2011) and Dunaden (2012). 

Harlem drops five kilos on his last two runs which included a win in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at this track. He drew barrier one that day and got a lovely rails run and he shapes to get the same again here from the inside gate again. He meets Amelie's Star a kilo and a half better off for their last start meeting. He has two wins and two placings at this distance and the blinkers go on for the first time. Chad Schofield rode a Hong Kong treble last week. 

Jon Snow has had two runs at the trip for a third in the G1 N.Z. Derby and a win (below) in the G1 A.T.C. Derby. He won the G3 J.R.A. Cup before a very good run seven days ago when third in the G1 Caulfield Stakes. Trainer Murray Baker took a similar path to win this race with Mongolian Khan two years ago and he says this bloke is every bit as good as the stablemate Bonneval. He's drawn well, dropping in weight and races on the speed.

Ventura Storm finished second behind Winx in the G1 Turnbull Stakes a fortnight ago and had three quarters of a length on Humidor at the end. He meets him half a kilo worse off here. He's had five runs beyond 2000m for three wins and a second in the G1 Irish St Leger. Damian Oliver has won this race four times but not since 1999. Another who drops sharply in weight and should sit just off the pace from the good gate.

Inference has never won on a firm surface but his last two runs have been solid closing efforts on good tracks. This is the lightest weight he has carried in a long while and the blinkers go on for the first time. I expect Dwayne Dunn will snag him back to worse than midfield from the barrier and save him for the last shot at them. His one try at 2400m was a sixth to Jon Snow (above) in the G1 A.T.C Derby.

Marmelo has a similar profile to 2015 runner-up Trip To Paris with most of his recent form being at 2800m+ and no previous runs in this country. His last start win was at 3000m in the G2 Prix Kergorlay in France (below) and he looks a dour stayer who will be better suited at Flemington in two weeks. Three winners of this race last nine years were internationals who hadn't had a lead-up run in Australia - All The Good, Dunaden and Admire Rakti.

They are the top eight in the market. It's big prices the rest of them if you're the type who likes to have a sneaky each-way bet on something rough.

Lord Fandango is the best credentialled mile and a half horse in the race with three wins and a second from six tries. He won the G2 Herbert Power Stakes last Saturday at this course and distance and he gets in here with no weight on his back. Only Master O'Reilly (2007) has completed that double in the last 45 years and I just query whether that form is as strong as the G1 Turnbull Stakes and the G1 Caulfield Stakes.

Abbey Marie was pipped by Bonneval three runs back in the G2 Feehan Stakes and they gapped third. Following that she finished alongside Amelie's Star in a leader's dominated G3 Naturalism Stakes. Her final furlong last week was her best work and she drops significantly in weight. Single Gaze has had three consecutive runs at G1 w-f-a level behind the likes of Humidor, Bonneval and Gailo Chop and now drops to 53kg. Forgive her miss at 2400m in the G1 Australian Oaks because she fell. She finished second in the G2 Brisbane Cup at 2200m lumping 59kg. She's a rough place chance. Wicklow Brave finished fourth last time out in the G1 Irish St Leger (below) but he was beaten a very long way. Eight of his 10 wins have come on wet tracks and he has never won below 2800m. He beat just two horses home in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup and he's drawn wide.

Hardham was backed as if he was unbeatable last time out in the Inglis Cup but was disappointing on face value. He's had four runs back now and at this stage last campaign he ran third to Jon Snow in the G1 A.T.C. Derby at this distance. Boom Time is a two-time winner at Caulfield including one at this trip. He maps well and he's a model of consistency with seven runs at 2400m or further for five top five finishes. Sir Isaac Newton ran seventh in this race last year and has done nothing since. He meets Ventura Storm and Humidor 2.5kg-3kg worse off than last start and the gate doesn't help either. Two runs at 2400m for no placings and no victories beyond 2000m. He's Our Rokkii has won here three times but never beyond a mile and is horribly drawn. He's triple figure odds and will probably run accordingly.

Locky's Tip

11. Bonneval EACH-WAY

OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES

Tavistock Abbey (Caulfield Race 4 No. 7) is bred to stay. His mother is a daughter of Zabeel and his father Tavistock has produced Tarzino (G1 V.R.C. Derby), Tavago (G1 A.T.C. Derby) and Werther (G1 H.K. Derby) to name but three. Last start at 1800m he wore down Main Stage (who has since won) and he gives the impression the extra 200m will suit him even better. He's my early tip for the G1 V.R.C. Derby.

Faatinah (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) was unlucky not to finish closer than a two length sixth last start in the G1 Moir Stakes because he was squeezed up on the fence for the length of the straight. Second-up last campaign (below) only his stablemate Sheidel beat him home in the G1 Oakleigh Plate. Hugh Bowman should get the gun run from barrier one. Second in this race last year. Each-way all day.

Foxplay (Caulfield Race 9 No. 1) chased home Winx at her her first two runs this prep then drew the extreme outside in the G1 Epsom Handicap. She was forced back to last before unleashing a withering finish to be on the heels of the placegetters. Back to her own sex at set weights plus penalties here is much easier and Kerrin McEvoy should get a nice run from gate four. She goes well at this trip (4:1-2-0).

Good punting!

G1 Caulfield Guineas Day - 14.10.2017

We're getting to the pointy end of things now with the first of the Cups just over a week away and the G1 Cox Plate to follow seven days later.

I'll have tips for most of the Black Type races but the preview will focus on the Caulfield Cup/Cox Plate lead-up race in the G1 Caulfield Stakes and the inaugural running of The Everest at Randwick.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Hartnell has started a very short priced favourite at all three runs this preparation and he's been beaten at his last two runs when he appeared to have every possible chance. He's finished second at his last three 2000m runs but in his defence two were to Winx. Just one win in nine starts since winning the G1 Turnbull Stakes last year. He's becoming expensive.

Bonneval beat Hartnell fair and square in the G1 Underwood Stakes last start (below) and stepping up in distance looks ideal. She's won seven of 10 overall including her last six in a row - three of which were G1's. She's unbeaten in four runs at 2000m+ and unbeaten at Caulfield. She's very easy to like.

Gailo Chop staved off all challengers except Bonneval and Hartnell last start but he did get the gun run behind the two pacemakers. He was thereabouts at his previous run too in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes when fourth in a similar field. He's a five-time winner at this distance including the G1 Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington in 2015.

Single Gaze got into a speed duel last start more than 1000m from home for reasons probably only known to hoop Kathy O'Hara. All things considered it was a mighty run to finish on the heels of Hartnell and ahead of Black Heart Bart. A softer run in transit this week would see her improve.

Inference was only a half length behind Single Gaze and closing fast so perhaps stepping up to 2000m will help. He's placed at both runs at the trip with a fast finishing third in a slowly run G3 Norman Robinson Stakes this time last year and a second to Gingernuts in the G1 Rosehill Guineas.

Jon Snow comes via the G3 JRA Cup at Moonee Valley where he had the gun run on a night where it was a leader's highway. That was his second win at this trip from just three attempts and he's also won a G1 ATC Derby (below) so he can't be dismissed lightly. It just seems that all his best form is on tracks that have give in them. It may be too firm for him.

Now let's look at this bunch of internationals having their first run in Australia.

The Taj Mahal hasn't won in his last 10 starts but five of his last six runs were at G1 level in France, Ireland, the U.K. and the U.S. His run two starts back in the G1 Secretariat at 2000m was very good. Damien Oliver has won this race four times. Calderon is the only one now trained in Australia. He's won two of three fresh his last being a $100K G3 in England six months ago. All his wins have come on good tracks. Riven Light has won three of his last four and six overall but all have been on slow or heavy. He's friendless in early markets. Johannes Vermeer ran in a G1 Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot (U.K.) three runs back (below) and that's world class form. He seems to handle all surfaces and he has the highest rating of the quartet. It's anyone's guess as to where they will be in the run though.

Abbey Marie is the complete outsider but she finished alongside Bonneval in the G2 Feehan Stakes before finishing alongside Amelie's Star in the G3 Naturalism Stakes. Both those mares have subsequently won.

Locky's Tip

11. Bonneval WIN

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a high chance of showers. ***

The Everest (Special Conditions, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Very good field here with plenty of pace engaged (Vega Magic, Redzel, Redkirk Warrior, Deploy, Fell Swoop and Houtzen) so it will probably come down to race tactics, tempo and who gets the best run in transit.

Vega Magic will have to push forward from the wide draw but I don't mind him drawn out particulary with all the other speed drawn in. Plenty of people think he can win because he's clearly the best backed runner since the barrier draw. He's only missed a placing once in 12 runs at 1200m. Nine of those were wins. Will he get "Willowed" though?

Chautauqua would be better off drawn further out in my opinion. He runs the risk of getting buried back in the ruck here with quite a few likely to cross him from out wide early. Having said that he's won the last three G1 T.J. Smith Stakes (below) at this track and trip. He needs them to run along in front at a good tempo. Any rain helps.

She Will Reign gets a massive pull in the weights on most of her rivals here just as she did last start when winning the G1 Moir Stakes from a seemingly impossible position. She's only been beaten once but that defeat was at this track and at this distance and also when second-up. She can save ground from that draw but she'll need luck on straightening.

Redzel maps very well here given his good gate and racing pattern. He's won his last three starts at Randwick and has won five of his last seven with narrow seconds in his other two runs to English and Russian Revolution. He's had a four week break into this which is the same recipe they used when he won the G1 Doomben 10,000 in May.

Redkirk Warrior should get into a lovely spot from gate three. His two misses at this track  were on bogs and he needs a firm surface to show his best. In fact he's never been beaten in this country on a dry surface. He'd never raced below 1400m prior to his arrival. He's now had three starts for two wins (including a G1 Newmarket Handicap) and a second. 

Deploy is dropping from 1300m back to 1200m since bolting in with the G3 Theo Marks Stakes last start (below) when he thrashed Egg Tart by four lengths. He has had a five-week freshen up so perhaps it's not such a big deal. He's the current track record holder at Randwick for this journey and unbeaten at the course and distance.

English draws the extreme outside so she's going to have to be ridden for luck. Everybody raved about Chautauqua and his finishing burst last start in the G2 Premiere Stakes but this mare actually had a faster final 600m and final 400m. A four-time winner here but just one victory at 1200m from nine attempts. Amazingly she has never won a race in Spring.

Clearly Innocent will appreciate the tempo being on up front because he usually steps up to 1300m second-up. He should get a lovely trail behind the pacemakers from gate six and he will be steaming home late. He is the one who will jump out of the ground if we get rain because he's unbeaten in four starts on affected going.

The rest of them are $26 or better. 

Houtzen has the inside barrier and given her early speed she will make use of it especially with the featherweight. She wasn't very convincing last start even though she won. Brave Smash meets Vega Magic 6.5kg worse off for his defeat in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes three runs back. I can't see him turning the tables here. He's not finishing off his races and he looks like a horse crying out for further. Tulip has her work cut out for her jumping from barrier 11. Coolmore says she's not just there to make up the numbers. We'll see. Fell Swoop has placed behind Chautauqua in the last two runnings of the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at this track and distance. Maybe a longshot place chance?

What a fascinating contest.


Locky's Tip

5. Clearly Innocent EACH-WAY

OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES

Who Shot Thebarman (Randwick Race 6 No. 4) has three wins and four placings from his 11 starts beyond 2400m. He's clearly the best placed here at the set weights scale given three of those four placings were in either a G1 Sydney Cup or a G1 Melbourne Cup. I loved his effort in the G1 Metropolitan last start where he conceded the winner 6.5kg. He meets Libran 1kg better off here and Big Duke 3kg to the good.

Aloisia (Caulfield Race 6 No. 5) has been kept fresh for this just as she was when a narrow second (below) in the G1 J.J. Atkins second-up over the mile at the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Forget her first-up run because she went to the line under double wraps after running up backsides all the way down the straight. Provided there are no scratchings I'll play her each-way at double figure odds.

In Her Time (Randwick Race 7 No. 12) wouldn't have been out of place in The Everest given she beat home English, Clearly Innocent and Chautauqua in the G2 Premiere Stakes last start. That was her second win from two starts at the track and trip. She has been the find of the last 12 months with nine starts for five wins and two G1 placings. She's drawn a little awkwardly but should still get the job done.

Gold Standard (Caulfield Race 8 No. 7) won the G2 Stan Fox Stakes two runs back and the last three winners of this race came off a top two finish in that race with two completing the double. He followed that up with a fourth in the G1 Golden Rose and the form out of that race was franked by Perast in the G3 Guineas Prelude a fortnight ago. The last six G1 Caulfield Guineas winners were trained in N.S.W.

Star Exhibit (Randwick Race 9 No. 4) hit the line powerfully last start in the G3 JRA Cup against the bias. It was leader dominated at Moonee Valley that night and after settling second last he circled the field on the turn to be beaten a little over three lengths. The right handed way of going is no concern because he ran second (below) in the G1 Doomben Cup during the Brisbane Winter Carnival.

Comin' Through (Caulfield Race 9 No. 8) drew poorly in the G1 Epsom Handicap and as a result he was ridden a lot further back than he had been at his previous two starts plus he was caught wide. With no weight and a good gate I see him a lot closer in the run tomorrow. Michael Walker rode him in his two excellent wins at the start of this preparation and he takes the reins again tomorrow.

Super Cash (Caulfield Race 10 No. 11) has three wins and a second from four fresh runs. Her last two were wins here at 1100m including a victory at the start of last prep over I Am A Star, Chautauqua and Hellbent in a G2 Rubiton Stakes. She's never missed the top four in six runs at this distance. From the good gate I can see her stalking Sheidel everywhere she goes. She's been absolutely crunched ($7.50 into $4.80) in early betting

Good punting!

G1 Turnbull Stakes and G1 Spring Champion Stakes Day - 07.10.2017

The Spring Carnival officially gets under way this weekend with the AFL and NRL seasons now finally put to bed.

Winx is the star of the show with the great mare striving to make it 21 victories in a row in the G1 Turnbull Stakes.

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Winx has never raced at Flemington. That's the only negative I can find. She's just bulletproof. Wet or dry, Sydney or Melbourne, handicap or w-f-a, six furlongs or a mile and a half, it simply doesn't matter. Her last four runs at this distance have yielded wins in a G1 Caulfield Stakes, a G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and two G1 Cox Plates. The question is do you want to take $1.18? I suppose it's better than bank interest.

Humidor is proving himself a good Flemington horse. His last two runs here he has claimed a G1 Australian Cup beating Jameka and a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) beating Hartnell. That last start win was something else given he came from last and ran by them all in a race where nothing else made significant ground from the back. I don't think he can give the mare 2kg and beat her but this should top him off nicely for the G1 Caulfield Cup.

Ventura Storm was another who got a mile back in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (above) and while he wasn't as eye-catching as the winner he stuck to his task. He's a runner-up in a G1 St Leger back in England but like Humidor he'll also be better suited at Caulfield in a fortnight with just the 54kg. Sir Isaac Newton was much better last start after pulling up with an irregular heartbeat at his previous run in the G2 Feehan Stakes. He cut the corners like the winner Harlem in that Listed Heatherlie Handicap but was no match late. Assign was in the same race and was horrible however he ran last at his fresh run when last in work then came out and won the G3 Sellwood Stakes second-up off a four week break. 

The other two are $301+. Both will collect at least ten grand for their troubles.

Magicool tries about as hard as Bernard Tomic. He was also nominated for the $30K Murtoa Cup and the $20K Gunbower Cup today. He couldn't have won those either. Skyfire should be getting a head start. A couple of furlongs ought to do it. Winx would still beat him though.

Locky's Tip

Sit back and enjoy the spectacle. Maybe take the opportunity to grab a drink while everyone else is watching the race and there's no queue at the bar.

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Spring Champion Satkes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

 *** There are no early scratchings ***

Ace High controlled the race last start in the G2 Gloaming Stakes but to his credit he responded well when the challenge was thrown down in the straight. His breeding (High Chaparral) seems to indicate he'll be good over a longer trip. His fourth in the G1 Champagne Stakes last April was the run of a Derby horse in the making.

Sanctioned looked to have his chance to beat Ace High last start but the other horse was just too tough over the concluding stages. Kerrin McEvoy replaces Hugh Bowman who is in Melbourne but that's no real worry when you consider that they won 22 G1's between them last season.

Sully was the best of the closers behind Ace High in the G3 Gloaming Stakes. The first three were always prominent whereas he got a mile back but he hit the line as well as anything. That was the first time he'd missed a top three finish in his career. This stable produced Sangster (VRC Derby) and Tavago (ATC Derby) so they know what it takes to win a big 3-y-o G1.

Astoria was safely held last start and Sully did come from behind him and go past him despite the fact this bloke had clear running and the other had to weave a passage. It was a funnily run race though and I think he'd be better suited with more tempo in the contest as he showed at his previous run in the G3 Spring Stakes at Newcastle.


Tangled didn't have a lot of room late last start and he wasn't beaten far (below) in the Listed Dulcify Quality despite conceding the quinella horses 7.5kg. His mother won a G1 NZ Oaks and placed in a G1 AJC Oaks (as it was known back then) so he is bred to stay.

Dissolution meets Tangled much worse off here (as alluded to above) but he did come home faster than anything else (above) and he looks to be screaming for 2000m. He's still a maiden but I don't think he will be for long. It's just that I don't think he'll break his duck here. 

Langley is another who'll find it hard against Tangled given the swing in the weights from last start (above) and the fact that he ran past this guy like he was tied to a post. He only plodded late so I can't have him in this. Coral Coast is the only filly but she put up a good fight when third behind the boys last start in the G3 Gloaming Stakes. Her dam won two G1's across the ditch including a G1 NZ Guineas. She's the likely leader and she'll give a good sight for a long way. Surpise Bullet is coming off a five length victory in a Gold Coast maiden which is hardly the ideal lead-up for a G1. Still the win was impressive given he lumped 59kg and you know he'll be rock hard fit with four consecutive runs at 1600m or further under his belt. Colesberg is the rank outsider. His only win was on debut at Warwick Farm on a Heavy 8. All he has to do is complete the course and he'll pick up $5K for connections.


Locky's Selections

1. Sully EACH-WAY

OTHER BLACK TYPE RACES

Spieth (Flemington Race 4 No. 4) should have two G1 wins here. He had no luck when pipped by Malaguerra in the G1 Darley Classic at this track and trip last November and if you backed him when he finished second (below) to Terravista in the G1 Lightning Stakes don't watch the replay because it'll be like bingeing on a box set of American Horror Story. 

Harlem (Flemington Race 7 No. 3) won like a good horse last start and he is a two-time winner at 2400m in Europe. His only poor runs in this country have been when he's struck a wet track. It'll be nice and firm tomorrow. Almandin is very, very good but I can't step into even money with 60kg.

Missrock (Flemington Race 8 No. 9) is really well placed at the weights because she should be conceding all of her rivals at least 3kg on handicap ratings. All of her three runs this campaign have been solid and fourth run in last prep she ran a slashing fourth (below) in the G1 Sangster Stakes in Adelaide.

Dawn Wall (Randwick Race 8 No. 4) was ordinary second-up but I'll give her one more chance because Corey Brown said she might have felt the first-up run. If you go on that she's right in this. Back to fillies and mares grade this start makes it a bit easier and she's drawn to get the box seat. Each-way.

Good punting!