G1 Triple Header - 30.09.2016 to 02.10.2016

A G1 triple header this weekend over Friday/Saturday/Sunday so it'll be a condensed version this week in order to get through everything whilst not losing what little is left of what I laughingly like to refer to as my mind.

Who's Hot? 

The father-son training partnership of Peter and Paul Snowden had a city double at Rosehill last weekend with Tycoon Tara and Extensible. Throw in Stakes winners Defcon, Redzel and Russian Revolution and they've had a good start to the Spring.

They have Detective (Race 5 No. 1) running at Moonee Valley tonight and some strong chances at Randwick tomorrow in Khan (Race 2 No. 5) and Capitalist (Race 5 No. 2).

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a high chance chance of showers but becoming less likely in the evening. ***

Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Chautauqua looks the obvious. You wouldn't think he'd be a Moonee Valley horse given his racing pattern but he's raced her twice for two massive wins in a G1 Manikato Stakes (below) and a G2 McEwen Stakes. Extreme Choice won the G1 Blue Diamond back in February but this is his first taste of open company. He has only been beaten once and that was in the G1 Golden Slipper last April when he copped a squeeze shortly after the jump and was pushed back to last. Buffering is unbeaten at the track and distance has won this race three times. He's won nine from 12 first-up and five from seven at the trip. He'll give the favourite something to chase and he'll be in front for a long time. Lucky Hussler has won a G1 William Reid Stakes at this track when fresh but that was 1200m. He will however get a lovely sit on them here if they go crazy in front and could be the one coming late.  Heatherly has had five runs at Moonee Valley - all of them at 1000m - and has three wins and two thirds. She wouldn't want to miss the start again like last time. Or would she? Given the likely frantic tempo it might just work. 

Ball Of Muscle just keeps running honest races and did finish a narrow second (below) to Buffering in this race last year. He's only missed a placing twice in 20 career starts. Wild Rain has had four attempts at the Moonee Valley 1000m for three wins and I'm always wary of mares in form. This is a big step up but she is going great guns at the moment. Redzel beat G1 Stradbroke Handicap winner Under The Louvre last start and third-up last prep he toppled recent G2 The Shorts winner Takedown. All his wins are at 1100m however. Chloe In Paris hasn't been since for nearly a year and a half and they've picked a really difficult race to kick-off her campaign. On the plus side Damien Oliver has won this race five times. She's won at this track and trip but it was a maiden.

A good field of sprinters and they will go like the clappers here so it will probably be set up for the swoopers.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Chautauqua

DANGER  

1. Buffering

FOR EXOTICS

4. Ball Of Muscle
7. Heatherly
3. Lucky Hussler

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

Epsom Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Chris Waller has dominated big Sydney miles in recent years winning the last three renewals of this race, the last four G1 Doncaster Miles, four of the last five G1 George Main Stakes and five of the last six G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. So I'll look at his quartet first.

McCreery reminds me a bit of He's Your Man who won this race for the stable two years ago. He's down in the weights and dropping from 2000m back to 1600m after winning the G3 Kingston Town Stakes. Good gate. Mackintosh is a new season 4-y-o who wintered in Queensland before resuming with a win in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes. That's the same path his stablemate Winx took last year. He's drawn to get a good run. Vanbrugh gets a 4.5kg swing in the weights on Hauraki since their last start meeting (below) in the G1 George Main Stakes behind Winx. Torgersen is the least fancied of all the Waller runners but his last two runs have been good and he meets Sons of John 2kg better off for a narrow last start defeat. Lightly weighted and well drawn.

Seven of the last eight winners carried 54kg or less, six of the last eight winners were 4-y-o's and only one winner in the last eight years returned double figure odds. But it's impossible to ignore the ones at the top end of the weight scale.

Hauraki has come back a treat this prep with a win and a second to Winx. He also has Brisbane Winter Carnival form as did recent Black Type winners Black Heart Bart, Sacred Elixir and the previously mentioned Mackintosh. Happy Clapper is another with form behind the great mare finishing second to her in the G1 Doncaster Mile at this track and trip four months ago. He only carried 50.5kg that day so rises sharply in the weights here but this isn't as strong a field. I would have preferred to see him drawn wider and not cluttered up on the rail however. Palentino also has a form line that is hard to fault with a last win (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes beating Black Heart Bart and He Or She. That pair ran the quinella in the G1 Underwood Stakes last weekend at their next starts. He's two from two at 1600m but having his first go the Sydney way. Le Romain has had one go at the mile for a win here in the G1 Randwick Guineas last April. That was his fourth run back. He's never missed a top two finish at this track in five runs and meets Hauraki 1.5kg better off for that first-up defeat in the G2 Tramway Stakes. Barrier three is ideal.

Of the rest Sons Of John comes off a win in the G3 Bill Ritchie Handicap which is the route Boban took to win this race three years ago. He has the services of three-time G1 Epsom Handicap winning jockey Glen Boss. Wide barrier is a concern. Dibayani is a money muncher but he could finish top four because he's done that in seven of his 10 runs in this country. He just doesn't win. Heavens Above is flying and wasn't suited by a slow tempo last start. She finished second to Azkadellia (below) at this track and distance in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes with 57kg so she won't know herself with just 51kg. Fabrizio was dominant last start but that was a BM85. He's in good hands however because trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times before. Mighty Lucky will probably find this a bit rich. He was pretty good fresh given he ran into traffic and he can produce second-up but the gate doesn't help. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Le Romain

DANGER  

8. Mackintosh

FOR EXOTICS

9. McCreery

2. Hauraki
1. Palentino

10. Heavens Above

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a chance of rain but mostly in the evening. ***

Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Hartnell looks the obvious here given he's won his last two races by a combined margin of nearly 14 lengths. His only defeat this time in work was to Winx and it's remarkable how horses with form around her just keep winning. He's still got to prove himself the Melbourne way and he wouldn't want the track too firm. Jameka bolted in last start in the G3 Naturalism Stakes for her first victory since claiming the G1 V.R.C. Oaks 11 months ago. I think she'll find this mob a bit harder than Gallante, Berisha etc. but I must say she looks very well treated at the set weights plus penalties conditions. The United States was one of the many hard luck stories in the G2 Feehan Stakes after copping interference on the turn before motoring to the line late. There has to be a query on that form however given horses that finished ahead of him like Awesome Rock, Real Love, Set Square and The Cleaner were all pretty plain at their next start. Owner Lloyd Williams has won this race three times in the last six years with Green Moon, Zipping and Efficient. 

Our Ivanhowe chased home the likes of Palentino, Black Heart Bart and He Or She in the G1 Makybe Stakes last run and that form is looking pretty good right now. He was only a length and a half off the winner (below) in that farcically run G1 Australian Cup at this track and distance earlier this year. Trainer Lee Freedman has trained six winners of this race. Raw Impulse is not well weighted here given his handicap rating (he should be getting 10kg from Hartnell) but he's won four of six since coming to Australia. He's a horse on the way up as he showed with his demolition job two weeks ago in the Listed Tokyo City Cup in Adelaide and it would be a brave person to write off anything trained by Darren Weir.

It's $21+ the rest.

Tally won the G2 Autumn Classic at his third run in last preparation before beating Palentino at his next start in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes. He improved markedly second-up when dropping back in class but the bar gets raised here. Set Square was just OK when a distant fourth to her stablemate Jameka in the G3 Naturalism Stakes a fortnight ago and meets her 1kg worse off here. She did run a mighty race when third in this feature last Spring (below) and her only other 2000m run at Flemington was a one and a half length fifth in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes two starts later. Tarzino won the G1 V.R.C. Derby at this track last November and finished second here during the Autumn in the G1 Australian Guineas. He's shown very little in three runs back against open company but the rise to 2000m, the big track and drawing away from the rails are plusses. I'm not sacking him just yet but he is on notice. 

Preferment has to give Hartnell a kilo and half but he is a very good Flemington horse and will appreciate a firm track. He's had four starts at Flemington for wins in a G1 V.R.C. Derby, a G1 Australian Cup (above) and this race last year (below). His only "failure" at this circuit was when he got poleaxed in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. Unbeaten this track and trip. Happy Trails is lining up in this race for the fifth time and he did win it three years ago. He's only won one race since but it was a G1 Mackinnon Stakes at this track and distance albeit 23 months ago. It seems like he's had more Farewell Tours than John Farnham. Sofia Rosa is finally getting up to a trip that suits and only Palentino had a faster final 800m in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last start. Getting out to 2000m on a big track will suit her much better than her previous two runs this campaign. Hard to knock a G1 A.T.C. Oaks winner in on the minimum weight.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

4. Hartnell

DANGER  

1. Preferment

FOR EXOTICS

5. The United States
6. Our Ivanhowe
10. Sofia Rosa

9. Jameka

OTHER BETS

Detective (Moonee Valley Race 5 No. 1) has won both his runs this prep and third run back in the Autumn Carnival he just missed Seaburge in the G2 V.R.C. Sires Produce. He split G1 winners Capitalist and Prized Icon on debut and he's only missed a top two finish once in seven career starts. As mentioned previously the stable is in form.

Kaepernick (Randwick Race 9 No. 11) came up the wrong part of the track last start and despite being forced to weave a passage down the straight he still ran the fastest final 600m. His good second-up record indicates he'll take improvement from the outing and he's a winner here at the Randwick 1200m. I think he represents good each-way value.

Ulmann (Flemington Race 9 No.11) gave Bon Aurum a kilo last start when second in the Listed Tontonan Stakes at this track and distance. That colt subsequently won last weekend's G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes. He's been in wonderful touch this campaign with his only really bad run coming on a heavy track. Three starts back he won at this track and trip.

Good punting!

G1 Underwood Stakes / G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Day - 24.09.2016

Black Type races aplenty this weekend and I have tips for most of them but the main focus will be on the w-f-a horses in the G1 Underwood Stakes.

Who's Hot? 

In the last five weeks John O'Shea and Godolphin have racked up a host of Black Type winners with Pearls, Astern (twice), Fitou, Hauraki, Hartnell (twice) and Chetwood.

The stable has more runners chasing Stakes success this weekend in Archives (Caulfield Race 6 No. 6), Allergic (Rosehill Race 2 No. 2), Alegria (Rosehill Race 2 No. 3), Pecans (Rosehill Race 4 No. 11), Impending (Rosehill Race 5 No. 1), Retaliation (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4), Honeywine (Rosehill Race 6 No. 8), Pearls (Rosehill Race 7 No. 4), Old North (Rosehill Race 8 No. 5) and Moher (Rosehill Race 9 No. 12).

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day. ***

Underwood Stakes (Group 1, 1800m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Our Ivanhowe is an early scratching ***

Black Heart Bart couldn't hold off Palentino (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes last start but they gapped the rest so I don't know if you can say he didn't run the trip. Still the extra 200m has to be a concern here given his best stats are at 1400m even if he is unbeaten at Caulfield. I'm not saying he can't win but I'm sure as hell not taking $2.25 to find out.

Awesome Rock blew them away last start in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes but he did skittle half the field on the home turn so the margin may have been flattering. Having said that seventh placed Jameka came out and spanked them last week so the form can't be that bad. I'm risking him though because his 14 starts in his last four campaigns have yielded eight unplaced runs and he doesn't win often.

Lucia Valentina was fourth to Winx and Hartnell fresh in the G2 Warwick Stakes and that form looks pretty good now. She's five weeks in between runs and that's a similar path to the one they took with her in the Autumn when she smashed them second-up (below) in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Just one win and two placings from 16 starts on firm ground is the worry. The last mare to win this race was Tristarc in 1985.

History says the rest will find it hard to win because only one winner in the last 12 years did not return single figure odds.

He Or She should get the run of the race from the inside barrier. Palentino and Black Heart Bart beat him comfortably in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes but he was clearly the best of the rest and should be ready to peak here following two runs back after a near five month spell. Last campaign he won the G2 Blamey Stakes third-up beating The United States. That horse won the G1 Ranvet Stakes at his next start. His Caulfield record is poor though.

Tarzino could be a big improver here after two runs back because third-up last prep (below) he won the G1 Rosehill Guineas leaving last weekend's dominant winner Jameka in his wake. I like the wide barrier for this horse because he needs to make a long sustained run and I don't think barrier four helped him in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. Trainer Mick Price has elected to take the blinkers off for the first time. Interesting.

Tavago was one of the many who suffered interference on the turn in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes so I'm overlooking that run because he was never seriously tested in the run home. He's been a big drifter in early betting but I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a cheeky race at big odds. Three Kiwi 4-y-o's have won this race in the last five years - Lion Tamer, Ocean Park and It's A Dundeel. Two of them were Derby winners. He was well fancied last start.

The Cleaner finished a close-up third in this race last year (below) behind Mourinho and Fawkner and his only other run at the trip was a win. He'll no doubt cross and lead from the extreme outside barrier and he should do it fairly easily. The last 200m will be the test and as a 9-y-o I think if he was going to win a race like this he would have done it by now. No wins at Caulfield.

Jacquinot Bay and Prince Of Penzance crossed the line alongside Our Ivanhowe in the G1 Makybe Stakes and were arguably were finishing better yet had they all run tomorrow the former two were likely to be three times the odds of the latter. Only the winner Palentino ran a faster final 800m than Prince Of Penzance in that race.

Howard Be Thy Name did enough fresh but he'll probably need at least another run so wait a few weeks until he gets to 2000m+. He did win the Listed Port Adelaide Guineas at this distance back in April but that was the ninth run of his preparation. This lot will probably be a bit hot for him.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

11. Lucia Valentina

DANGER  

2. Black Heart Bart

FOR EXOTICS

9. Tavago
7. He Or She
8. Tarzino

1. Prince Of Penzance

OTHER BETS

Divine Prophet (Rosehill Race 5 No. 2) got into a bit of bother on the turn (below) in the G1 Golden Rose and although he wouldn't have troubled Astern he probably should have finished a lot closer. Team Hawkes is having a good run at the moment with their 3-y-o's and I expect this guy to be a lot closer in the run tomorrow with only five rivals and he may just have the superior turn of foot.

Leotie (Caulfield Race 5 No. 11) could nearly be unbeaten this prep after just missing second-up when flashing home from last. She made amends last start though with a dominant win here at Caulfield when stepping up to 1400m for the first time. She gets the same course and distance again and drops in weight and she possesses a dynamic turn of foot.

High Mist (Rosehill Race 6 No. 3) is bred to get over some ground being by High Chaparral and a granddaughter of G2 Adrian Knox Stakes winner Lady Mulan. He lumped a big weight to win last time and prior to that hit the line really well without much luck in the G3 Ming Dynasty Stakes. He's racing in good form and drawn to advantage.

Archives (Caulfield Race 6 No. 6) impressed me first-up down the Flemington straight when just edged out by Saracino in the G2 Danehill Stakes. Now with a run under his belt and a one kilo swing in the weights I think he can turn the tables. He's had only one other appearance second-up and he won the Listed Hampden Stakes at Doomben four months ago and I love horses with Brisbane Winter form.

Heaven's Above (Rosehill Race 7 No. 5) got there just in time for me last start so I'm sticking solid and backing up on her. She was 1300m back to 1200m that day and giving weight to the rest so it was a big effort. She beat all bar Azkadellia (below) in the G1 Queen Of The Turf in April and they spaced the rest.

Counterattack (Caulfield Race 7 No. 6) should have won last start but didn't get clear until it was too late. (OK, so I backed him.) The new season 4-y-o's are winning everything and let's face it they've won the last six renewals of this race. He looks pitchforked in here with just the 54kg and hoop Craig Williams has won this race five times in the last 10 years. He was the best of the on-pacers (below) in a swooper dominated G1 Stradbroke Handicap.

Good punting!

G1 George Main Stakes Day - 17.10.201

All eyes will be on Randwick this weekend with the running of the G1 Winx Retirement Fund Stakes George Main Stakes and we are looking at a firm track in Sydney for the first time in a long while.

With the scratchings of Tosen Stardom and Le Romain the great mare Winx will face off against just five rivals and start around $1.10. That says "no bet race" to me so I'll be focusing on the next biggest race on the card in the G2 The Shorts.

Who's Hot? 

In the last 20 days trainer Ciaron Maher has produced 29 starters for an amazing 12 winners.

Apart from his runners at Pakenham tomorrow he also has some strong chances at Caulfield such as Decoco (Race 2 No. 16), Kaching (Race 5 No. 13) plus Jameka (Race 8 No. 6) and Set Square (Race 8 No. 8) in the feature race.

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

The Shorts (Group 2, 1100m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

English looks the best placed here at the weights. She's had five starts here at Randwick for wins in a G1 All Aged Stakes (beating Black Heart Bart below), a G2 Challenge Stakes (when first-up last prep) and a G2 Reisling Stakes. She also has a third here to Chautauqua in a G1 T. J. Smith Stakes. She's unbeaten fresh and looked good in her trial.

Clearly Innocent has seven wins and a second from nine starts so he is a winner. At the end of last campaign he won the Listed Luskin Star Stakes beating Music Magnate who went on at his next start to claim the G1 Doomben 10,000. His only failure was at this track and distance but he has won here and twice at the trip elsewhere.

Japonisme won three 1100m races in a row early in his career and went on to claim a G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (below) less than three months later. He's only won once in six subsequent starts but he was taking on open company at G1 level as a 3-y-o and placed three times. He was pretty average first-up though so I'm going to wait and see given the big weight.

Kaepernick was devastating first-up last prep when easily claiming the Listed Ortensia Stakes. His last 10 starts have yielded four wins and three placings with his only misses being two runs down the Flemington straight (which is  easily forgivable) and the G1 Stradbroke Handicap back in June on that shifty track. Loves 1100m and drawn to stalk the speed.

Dothraki won the Listed City Tatts Lightning Stakes fresh at this track and distance last October. He wasn't far off Chautauqua (below) when fifth in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes back in April when he finished on the heels of English. He meets her 4kg better off here and he did just miss Malaguerra in the G1 B.T.C. Cup two starts ago.

Ball Of Muscle was narrowly beaten in this race last year and has only missed a place twice in 19 career starts. Those two runs were the only runs of his last campaign so if you write that off as just a bad prep he's a chance here. He's won two trails leading into this, has a good gate and he's placed behind G1 winners like Buffering, Azkadellia and Rebel Dane.

Takedown has had two starts at the Randwick 1100m - both of them first-up - for a third to Counterattack in the Listed Heritage Stakes and a second to Redzel in the Listed Fireball Quality. He was only half a length off Japonisme in the G2 Arrowfield Stakes four starts ago and meets him 1.5kg to the better here.

$21+ the rest.

Boss Lane has won five times at Randwick but never against this hot a field. I thought he had every possible chance last start and still couldn't get into the minor placings. This is harder and he's drawn poorly. Sarajevo was good fresh and might be the best longshot for exotics. He's got a good record at 1100m and the stable and jockey are airborne. Howmuchdoyouloveme has just turned eight and might have seen better days. He's hard to recommend given he's had eight starts at Randwick for no wins and just the one placing. Smart Volatility was well tried and well beaten last start but had an internal bleed so can be forgiven. Prior to that he won Listed Ramornie Handicap at Grafton at just his second run in Australia. Place only.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

9. Kaepernick

DANGER  

4. English

FOR EXOTICS

5. Dothraki
11. Sarajevo

2. Ball Of Muscle

10. Clearly Innocent

OTHER BETS

He's Our Rokki (Caulfield Race 9 No. 2) got us the chocolates two weeks ago in this blog at good odds and he looks a nice horse in the making so I am staying solid. He's had two goes here at Caulfield for a win and a second and his two best wins did come on soft tracks - the G3 Packer Plate and the G3 Carbine Club Stakes. He should get a good trail here from the positive draw. Well backed.

Preferment (Randwick Race 5 No. 2) could cause an upset here. I know Hartnell thrashed him last start but he was on a surface that suited and this bloke wasn't and I doubt he'll get the same head start tomorrow. This horse always goes to another level second-up. Last prep he won a G1 Australian Cup (below) by sitting on the speed in a slowly run race. He won this race last year when second-up too. $9 into $7 in early markets.

Tsaritsa (Randwick Race 8 No. 8) will appreciate some weight relief here after conceding 2.5kg - 5kg to the quinella at her last appearance. She should be much fitter for that first-up run and she's never missed a place at the trip. She won second-up last prep before going to the Brisbane Winter Carnival and winning the G2 Queensland Guineas. They were her last two runs on a firm track. She should get a lovely run from barrier two.

Good punting!

G1 Makybe Diva Stakes / G1 Golden Rose Day - 10.09.2016

The number for the Gambling Helpline is 1800 858 858.

You're going to need it if you've been following my tips recently.

Who's Hot? 

James McDonald has ridden a winning double at the last two Sydney Saturday meetings and in between he's ridden doubles at Wyong and Kembla Grange. He had six rides at Canterbury on Wednesday for a winner, three seconds, a third and a fourth. All told he's had 10 winners in the last fortnight. He's flying.

He has six rides at Rosehill tomorrow and all are chances - Salthouse (Race 2 No. 4), Allergic (Race 5 No. 3), Astern (Race 6 No. 1), Vashka (Race 7 No. 3), Pearls (Race 8 No. 1) and Invinzabeel (Race 9 No. 4).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast was for a cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***

Makybe Diva Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

How much did that gutbuster G1 Memsie Stakes take out of some of these horses? The stayers resuming were forced to chase a hot tempo set by Charmed Harmony and could be flat here second-up. With no real speed engaged here outside of Entirely Platinum and Ayers Rock it could become a race of tactics and who gets the good run. A bit or rain today in Melbourne but the track won't be slow.

Black Heart Bart is the short priced favourite here on the back of his dominant win (below) in the G1 Memsie Stakes. The stats seem to indicate he is a 1400m specialist (11:6-4-0) and when they've try to stretch him further he's never seemed to be quite as effective. On that basis I'm risking him here at the skinny odds because he's had nine starts beyond 1420m for no wins. Having said that he has had six top four finishes and has placed up to 2100m.

Palentino has been to Flemington three times and has been first past the post on each occasion although he did lose the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes to Tivaci on protest. He had a searching and was one of the best closers (above) when fifth to Black Heart Bart in the G1 Memsie Stakes. Stepping up to the Flemington mile third run back looks perfect because it's the exact same route he took to win the G1 Australian Guineas back in March.

Tarzino had the fastest closing splits of any horse in the G1 Memsie Stakes including the winner Black Heart Bart but he was entitled to run on given he sat back last doing no early work. Still it was a pleasing return and second-up last prep he was only just nosed out (below) by Palentino at this track and distance in the previously mentioned G1 Australian Guineas. Flemington suits with it's big, long straight.

Rising Romance was narrowly beaten in this race 12 months ago (below) and is coming off a solid performance in the G1 Memsie Stakes just like last year. She seems to have an affinity for Flemington too because she was placed in the G1 Australian Cup here earlier in the year and finished a half length second in last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes. She made good use of an inside draw last start and if she does so again she'll be right in the finish.

Alpine Eagle looked to be run off his legs before the turn in the G1 Memsie Stakes but kept battling away in the straight. That was his first run in three months and just his second in the last year so he's sure to be fitter. How much did that take out of him though? This time last year he was only three quarters of a length behind Fawkner when sixth (below) in this race off a similar lead-up.

Entirely Platinum finished third (above) to Fawkner in the same race and was coming off a second in the G1 Memsie Stakes. This year he comes off a third in the G2 Lawrence Stakes so they've taken a similar path. He should get a lovely run in front or just off the pace from the inside gate and didn't have a hard run last start chasing Charmed Harmony like many of his opponents here.

Our Ivanhowe went really well fresh last prep and might have troubled the winner Bow Creek in the G2 Peter Young Stakes if not for an interrupted passage in the home straight. He has good fresh form and he has the benefit of missing that hard run G1 Memsie Stakes. He's never won below 1600m but I expect a bold showing tomorrow. He beat Hauraki last time we saw him in the G1 Doomben Cup. 


If you like anything else you're looking at a nice payday because it's $17+ the rest.

He Or She got too far back in the G1 Memsie Stakes and never got into the race but he did finish off nicely to be alongside Tarzino at the finish. Three starts back he won the G2 Blamey Stakes at this course and distance beating The United States. He did run really well at his track and distance in the G1 Emirates Stakes last November (below) when he charged home for fifth against the pattern of the day.

Sofia Rosa will appreciate the rain yesterday because she's very adept on affected tracks but she would have liked a bit more. Unfortunately the barrier draw did her no favours and she'll most likely have to go back to the second half of the field. She's going to need luck and I still think she's looking for further but she'll be running past a few late.

Jacquinot Bay is a six-time winner at the mile and a three-time winner at Flemington and his recent form is pretty good if you overlook his unlucky run last week when Awesome Rock sideswiped half the field on the home turn. I can't have him in my selections but a big run wouldn't be a surprise.

Happy Trails was a three quarter length fifth in this race last year but he wasn't first-up. It's hard to recommend a 9-y-o in barrier 11 who's won one race in almost three years even if his last three wins all came at Flemington and were at G1 level. Prince Of Penzance will just be getting warmed up when they pass the winning post and wondering why they aren't going around for another lap. The barrier is awful too.  Ayers Rock will struggle at this level I feel.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

4. Our Ivanhowe

DANGER  

3. Black Heart Bart

FOR EXOTICS

12. Rising Romance

10. Palentino
6. Entirely Platinum

9. Tarzino
7. He Or She

OTHER BETS

Divine Prophet (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4) is my tip for the G1 Golden Rose. I can't get over his last-to-first win fresh and though I concede Omei Sword, Astern and Yankee Rose are chances I respect the fact that the stable bypassed this race with Star Turn leaving this bloke as their sole representative. He's clearly the No. 1 Draft Pick as far as Team Hawkes is concerned and they are having a good trot with 3-y-o colts.

Heavens Above (Rosehill Race 8 No. 2) showed she was a high quality mare last campaign when she beat all bar Azkadellia (below) in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. She had a super Autumn with six starts for two wins and four placings and she gets a six kilo swing in the weights on Pearls from their last start meeting. She should get a lovely run from barrier three and she looks well placed with 56kg.

Kinglike (Flemington Race 6 No. 6) won the G2 Danehill Stakes first-up on this day last year over the very same distance. His only two other fresh runs resulted in a narrow second to English last campaign in the G2 Challenge Stakes and a second on debut. He looks attractively weighted with just 53kg for a horse who was less than a length off Japonisme and Counterattack last start in the G2 Arrowfield Stakes during The Championships.

Good punting!