G2 Victory Stakes Day - 30.04.2016

Our attention turns to Brisbane the very same week that "Game of Thrones" returns to our T.V. screens.

That can only mean one thing.

Winter is coming.

Who's Hot? 

The Bjorn Baker stable is flying. He had five runners last Saturday spread across Rosehill, Kembla Grange and the Sunshine Coast for four winners and a second. He's had 14 winners all told in the last fortnight.

His best chances tomorrow at Hawkesbury appear to be Lubiton (Race 3 No. 8), Coolring (Race 4 No. 3) and Rock Forthe Ladies (Race 5 No. 3).

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day.***

The Victory Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Choice Bro is an early scratching ***

Fell Swoop has contested three G1's this time in for two narrow seconds and a fourth. Overall he's had 13 starts for eight wins and three seconds and with a bit of luck that would read 11 wins and a second to Chautauqua (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes last start. That horse will start a short priced favourite on Sunday in the G1 Chairman's Sprint in Hong Kong. I'm not keen on stepping into the odds-on but he does look the winner.

Didntcostalot has really blossomed since transferring to the Eagle Farm stables of Tony Gollan with four wins and two placings from seven starts. He's shown a real affinity for the Doomben 1200m start too with three wins and a third from just the four attempts. He looks the likely leader from barrier one and he can run a race fresh so I think he's the one Fell Swoop will have to run down.

Knoydart was a two length fourth too Srikandi in this race last year. He always seems to put in a good run in Queensland with a second in the G1 BTC Cup last year and top five finishes in the last two editions of the G1 Doomben 10,000.  He just missed Music Magnate in a deceptive finish (below) last time out in the G3 Hall Mark Stakes. He hasn't won for 26 months but has been Stakes placed six times.

Artlee didn't have any luck last start (above) behind Knoydart in that very same race but if you go back through his career form he's building quite an imposing record. What worries me is he was a late entry for this race. Nominations were extended due to the fact that only six horses initially nominated and I hate horses going into races as an afterthought. Local hoop Michael Cahill replaces Mitchell Bell.

Famous Seamus won the G1 BTC Cup (below) at this track and distance beating Spirit Of Boom and Buffering in the process but that was two years ago. He's only won twice since in 18 subsequent runs and he's been unplaced in 12 of his last 13 starts. It's hard to have him on his three runs this prep because he has been terrible. Talented enough on his day but I can't have him here.

Fontelina didn't produce his best last campaign until three-four runs into his prep and that's probably the goal this time in with races coming up like the G1 Doomben 10,000 and G1 Stradbroke Handicap. He has not placed when first-up for three and a half years but he was just over a length off Dothraki fresh last October in the Listed Lightning Stakes at Randwick. Jockey Jim Byrne knows his way around Doomben.

Pinch River and Rock Royalty look hopelessly out of their depth here. The nicest thing I can say is they both have good records at this track and distance.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Fell Swoop

DANGER  

4. Didntcostalot

FOR EXOTICS

7. Knoydart
3. Artlee

OTHER BETS

Caillebotte (Doomben Race 1 No. 7) is unbeaten in three starts at this trip including his last two appearances by a combined margin of more than seven lengths. Granted they were in much weaker company but he gets weight relief to offset the class rise and he appears to have turned the corner. The wide gate doesn't concern me because he drew the inside last start and still went back to near last. There's plenty of time for this small field to sort themselves out down the Doomben straight from the 2200m start and the pace should be genuine.

Inz'n'out (Hawkesbury Race 4 No. 6) won't want too much rain (5-10mm forecast) because although he won on affected ground early in his career I feel he's best on a dry track. Last campaign he was super after being gelded. After failing first-up (Heavy 9, $3.60 out to $6.50) he finished second to Fell Swoop before winning his next two. Following that he split Good Project and Music Magnate before placing at his next two runs too. He'll be making his own luck up on the speed from the good barrier draw and he's been the subject of good support in early betting.

Good punting!

G1 All Aged Stakes Day - 16.04.2016

The final day of the Sydney Carnival and somewhat of an anticlimax given the sensational action we've had over the last month.

Thankfully they've had no more rain in Sydney and the track could be close to a good surface.

Who's Hot? 

John O'Shea hasn't trained a G1 winner since Holler but he's been racking up Stakes races since with Italy, Souchez, It's Somewhat (twice), Calliope, Tally, Havana Cooler, Old North, Astern and Handfast. He trained four winners at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.

He has some great chances at Randwick tomorrow including Old North (Race 3 No. 1), Pearls (Race 4 No. 1), Obscura (Race 5 No. 7), Federal (Race 6 No. 10) and Havana Cooler (Race 9 No. 4).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day.***

The All Aged Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Two converging form lines here - some have been chasing home Winx and the others have been chasing home Chautauqua. There doesn't appear to be a lot of speed on paper and with a small field coming out of the 1400m chute expect another tactical w-f-a affair. The swoopers could be coming wide late in the day too given this is the third meeting at Randwick in 15 days and the rail is out nine metres. Barriers no real concern with only one major turn to navigate.

Kermadec was awful in the G1 Doncaster Mile last start but you have to forgive a good horse one bad run. His previous effort (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes was impressive when he beat all bar Winx. If Chris Waller is happy to continue then the horse must be in good order because he's not the type to risk a good horse. I think he's crazy odds for a two-time G1 winner at Randwick and hoop James McDonald did ride five winners at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.

Press Statement was safely held (above) when third behind his stablemates Winx and Kermadec in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. He meets the latter half a kilo worse off too. Dropping back to 1400m here appeals because he's two from three at the trip with his only "failure" coming when he was absolutely luckless in the G1 Golden Rose last September. That was the only time he has missed a place in 10 career starts. Jockey Hugh Bowman is flying.

Black Heart Bart finished ahead of Chautauqua in the G1 Newmarket Handicap (below) but he was in receipt of a 4.5kg weight advantage. He proved that first-up run for new trainer Darren Weir was no fluke when he lumped 58.5kg to claim the G3 Victoria Handicap at his next start. He's had eight starts at 1400m for seven top two placings including five wins and Blake Shinn has chosen to ride him over English.

Malaguerra doesn't have form around either of the superstars but he's had six wins and a second from seven starts since being gelded. He recorded the fastest final 200m of the day when winning the G3 Star Kingdom Stakes last start despite being held up in traffic for most of the straight. This is clearly his biggest test to date but he just keeps responding every time they raise the bar. He could get a soft run in front and give them something to run down.

English ran a mighty race (below) behind Chautauqua in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes two weeks ago when she had to get too far back from a wide gate. Her prior effort in the G1 Galaxy was also full of merit for the same reason. She's only been tried beyond 1200m once when well beaten in the G1 Sires Produce Stakes this time last year but she was ridden upside down that day. Trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times.

Of the rest Rebel Dane is a G1 winner at 1400m but that was two and a half years ago. He's won just once in 20 subsequent appearances and has been unplaced 13 times. I think he is afraid of cameras. Perignon was great first-up, unlucky second-up and terrible last start when jockey Tim Clark reported she got stirred up behind the barriers. She's horribly placed at w-f-a but capable enough on her day. Goldstream is a winner of five from seven including a G2 Italian Derby. He's never won or even started at a distance below a mile but he's had a couple of searching trials to get him ready for this first-up tilt. Trainer Kris Lees had a Randwick double last weekend including a G1 with Lucia Valentina.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Kermadec

DANGER  

6. Press Statement

FOR EXOTICS

2. Black Heart Bart
4. Malaguerra

The Champagne Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Yankee Rose is an early scratching ***


The Yankee Rose form from the G1 Sires Produce (below) looks the best going into this race and history would suggest that too. Of those who chased her home that day Faraway Town was good once she got clear running and it is the traditional lead-up race with eight of the last nine winners finishing top four en route to this feature. Chimboraa had a torrid run in the same event when wide throughout and yet still managed to pass a few tired horses late. From barrier three he should get a bit of cover here and he should see the mile right out. Hugh Bowman is a G1 specialist.

Of those who come here via a different path Obscura flashed home from the back of the field last start in the G3 Baillieu Stakes and gives every indication Randwick and 1600m will suit but only two winners in the last 17 years haven't come via the G1 Sires Produce Stakes. The stable and jockey are in red hot form.

El Sicario goes into this on the back of a second (below) in the G2 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes in N.Z when he was nabbed right on the line. He's a big, strong brute who has a trip written all over him and the stable has already caused one major upset at this carnival with Tavago winning the G1 Australian Derby at $31. Some operators put this bloke up at the same price but he's now single figure odds with the scratching of Yankee Rose.

Prized Icon ran the 1600m right out last weekend in the Listed Fernhill Handicap but the last winner to come via that race was Dracula in 1998. That was his first win but he's never missed a top three finish prior including placings to Capitalist, Telperion, Scarlet Rain and Defcon. James Cummings is the only trainer outside of Chris Waller to prepare a winner on each of the first two days of The Championships.

Locky's Selections

BEST        


4. El Sicario

DANGER  

10. Faraway Town

FOR EXOTICS

3. Chimboraa
7. Obscura
1. Prized Icon

OTHER BETS

Pearls (Randwick Race 4 No. 1) just missed at big odds last start when conceding the winner three kilos. She was 1500m back to 1200m that day after an OK effort in that red hot G1 Coolmore Classic (below) which  featured subsequent winners Azkadellia (G1 Queen of the Turf), Lucia Velentina (G1 Queen Elizabeth), Zanbagh (G2 Emancipation) and Vergara (G3 Epona) plus last weekend's hard luck story Ghisoni. Back up to 1400m looks ideal because she's a G2 winner last prep at this track and distance.

Charlie Boy (Randwick Race 6 No. 1) isn't "first-up" in the traditional sense but he is coming off a seven week break since claiming the G3 Liverpool City Cup fresh. It's when he seems to race best and I think Gerald Ryan has had an eye on this race for a while whereas many others are just warming up for Brisbane Winter campaigns. He looks really well placed at the set weights plus penalties conditions and with an improving track and a great barrier draw I'm not surprised he's $11 into $9 in early markets.

Good punting!

The Championships Day 2 - 09.04.2016

No Winx but we still have four G1 races so it's not a total disaster. The drawback is we are looking at another rain affected surface but hopefully it's on the improve.

I think it will be a genuinely wet track though because when interviewed post-race many of the beaten jockeys last week were lamenting the fact that their mounts just did not handle the going despite how well the track looked and the good drying conditions. With nearly 200m of rain the last two to three weeks I think the damage has already been done.

Who's Hot? 

Hugh Bowman has won six G1's in the last six weeks.

He has some well fancied rides tomorrow including Prized Icon (Race 1 No. 1), Santa Ana Lane (Race 2 No. 1), Japonisme (Race 5 No. 1) Sofia Rosa (Race 6 No. 7) and Preferment (Race 9 No. 2).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day.***

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Our Ivanhowe is an early scratching ***

The United States is the top elect here with the bookies and favoured runners have a good record in this feature with seven of the last 11 winners returning $5 or less. It's not hard to see why after hid dominant last start win (below) in the G1 Ranvet Stakes where he accounted for several of his opponents here. He has won on slow (beating Dibayani funnily enough) but that was on debut over 1400m three and a half years ago. He is a late nomination too and I hate horses that go into races as an "afterthought".

Hauraki chased home The United States last start (above) and appeared to have every possible hope. In his two previous starts he was placed behind Winx which is a tremendous form line but the bookies can't write a ticket for him. He's $5 out to $8 in early markets - possibly because of the shocking barrier draw and/or his poor wet track form.

Criterion ran a much improved race last time out (above) behind The United States and Hauraki. He's the one that's been a bit overlooked here given he convincingly won this race last year when also at his third run in and on a soft track. He's drawn to get the run of the race and at $8 into $6 in early betting he hasn't been completely forgotten by the punters. Don't forget he beat all bar Winx in the G1 Cox Plate last October.

Preferment comes via the G1 B.M.W (below) where he won thanks to a brilliant tactical ride. You could say exactly the same thing about his ride the previous start in that sit-and-sprint G1 Australian Cup. He's won four of his last eight starts - all between 2000m and 2400m - and three of them were G1's. His only worry would be the surface. He wouldn't want it to get too much wetter. Stable and jockey are in super touch. Drawn well.

Rising Romance finished fifth (above) behind Preferment but didn't have a lot of luck. She got strung up behind the tiring Our Ivanhowe then had to check off Montaigne but when she was finally clear she attacked the line. Fifth run last Spring she was a half length second in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes when dropping back from 2400m to 2000m. That was on a soft track. She opened at $34 but you'd be lucky to get half that price now.

Mongolian Khan has been just average in his three runs since returning from the colic attack that ended his Melbourne Spring Carnival prematurely. Granted he was three wide in his latest outing in the G1 B.M.W. (above) but I'd still prefer to see him do something more before I risked my hard earned. Only two horses in the last 19 years have won this race after finishing worse than fourth at their previous run.

Happy Clapper beat all bar Winx (below) in the G1 Doncaster Mile but he does go up 8.5kg on that run and he won't be getting a weight advantage as he did under the handicap conditions last week. He's never won beyond a mile but he gets every chance to relax in the run and see out the trip from the inside barrier. He's a three time winner at Randwick and he keeps responding every time trainer Pat Webster raises the bar.

Lucia Valentina caught the eye last start when flashing home to be a close up fourth in the G1 Coolmore Classic when resuming from a three month spell. She gave Azkadellia 5kg that day and finished right on her heels and that mare ran a slashing race in the G1 Doncaster Mile at her next start. Five of her six wins and three of her five placings have come on affected tracks. Jockey Damien Oliver has won this race four times and she has three wins and two placings from seven runs at 2000m.

Of the rest It's Somewhat is racing in fine fettle but this is a big step up and I think he'd have preferred it a bit drier. Dibayani is yet to win in this country but is pretty consistent and he has recent form around Winx. Leebaz had six wins and three seconds in his first ten starts. Since then he's had 16 runs for just two wins and three placings. Fenway would be better back to her own sex because she just seems to struggle in open company. Awesome Rock has had two runs on wet tracks and both were ordinary. Happy Trails is having a longer farewell tour than John Farnham.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Criterion

DANGER  

2. Preferment

FOR EXOTICS

12. Lucia Valentina
9. Happy Clapper
13. Rising Romance
8. Dibayani

OTHER GROUP 1'S

The Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Libran almost picks himself after three straight wins. His last start victory in the G2 Chairman's Handicap was enormous given they walked in front and he conceded 4kg to the placegetters. They gapped fourth and seven of the last eight winners of this race have taken the same route with three completing the double. He drops to 53kg and gets weight from most of his dangers. 

Of the others Who Shot Thebarman and Grand Marshal went really well at w-f-a (above) against stablemate Preferment last start in the G1 B.M.W. They ran the quinella in this race last year on a Soft 7 but Grand Marshal goes up 3kg on that run and Who Shot Thebarman 2.5kg. What bothers me is both of them have an identical statistic - just one win from their last 16 starts. 

Almoonqith didn't have a lot of luck behind the aforementioned duo last start but when he did get clear he surged late. Forget he ever ran in that farcical G1 Australian Cup. Go back to his win in the Listed Sandown Cup at this trip last November and the 3200m looks ideal. A really wet track might not be. Gallante is an absolute swimmer so his connections will have been doing a rain dance today hoping the showers arrive. The lightest weight he has shouldered in his 13 start career is 56kg so he won't know himself with just 51.5kg.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

4. Libran

DANGER  

7. Gallante

FOR EXOTICS

3.Grand Marshal
1. Who Shot Thebarman
2. Almoonqith

The Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Jameka was solid behind Tavago (below) in the G1 A.T.C. Derby last weekend and this looks much easier. She has drawn the car park but she did last week too and managed to cross them easily enough. She should do it here too because with all these girls on trial at the trip I can't see them going out to set any land speed records.

That win by Tavago last week (above) ties in the likes of Valley Girl and Capella because they finished just ahead of him in the G1 N.Z. Derby. Three of the last seven winners of this race were Kiwi trained and both these fillies did enough to suggest they're on target for a race like this in their last runs in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. Happy Hannah flashed home in the same race and is bred to stay. Her grandmother is G1 Queensland Oaks winner Joie Denise who has also produced G1 winners Sunday Joy and Tuesday Joy. Blake Shinn has never won an Oaks of any description but he's finished second five times - Fenway, Aliyana Tilde, Arabian Gold and Zanbagh (twice). Honesta was second to Jameka in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks last Spring on a Heavy 9. Single Gaze has beaten Honesta at her last two starts including the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and despite top two finishes at her last four runs she will go around at big odds again.

Diamond Made won the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes race at massive odds last weekend but after watching the run a couple of times I don't think it was a fluke. She'll stay all day and should see the trip right out. Alaskan Rose ran the best closing sectionals in the same race and her previous run against older horses was better than it looked because she got smashed on the turn. I think she'll stay all day and hoop Glyn Schofield rode a double last weekend. Sacred Eye meets those previous two horses 4.5kg-5kg better off for her last start defeat. Sofia Rosa was first past the post in the G1 N.Z.Oaks but lost the race on protest. She'd won three of her past four prior with her only miss coming when she fell and she handles the sting out of the ground. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Jameka

DANGER  

9. Alaskan Rose

FOR EXOTICS

13. Happy Hannah
7. Sofia Rosa
8. Diamond Made
3. Honesta

The Queen Of The Turf Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o and up fillies and mares w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Politeness, Supara and Asinara are early scratchings ***

Azkadellia beat all bar Peeping in the G1 Coolmore Classic two starts back (below) and left subsequent winners Zanbagh  and Vergara in her wake. She meets both of them 2kg better off here for having beaten them. Her run last week behind Winx in the G1 Doncaster Mile was fantastic. The seven day back up is no concern because she did it fifth run in last Spring when she defied the leader bias to storm into third in the G1 Myer Classic.

That G1 Coolmore Stakes form (above) is really starting to stack up so the aforementioned Zanbagh and Vergara have to go into exotics. Zanbagh is drawn in and Blake Shinn can have her close to speed which will be an advantage tomorrow in my none too humble opinion. She handles wet tracks too. Vergara ran out of her skin last Saturday when fourth in the G1 Doncaster Mile. At her previous start she won the G3 Epona Stakes on a seven day back-up just as she is here tomorrow. She handles affected surfaces and will likely be our leader from barrier one. Risque gets another chance back to the mile because I just don't think she stayed the 2000m in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes last time out. She's won on a Slow 8 in N.Z. which is the equivalent of a Heavy 13 in Australia. She's a G1 winner at the distance back home and ran third in the G1 Australian Guineas two starts ago. 

Heavens Above isn't suited at w-f-a but she must go in because she is flying. Two wins and two placings in her last four runs and you could make a case she should have won them all. Lady Le Fay handles all surfaces and has three wins and two placings from five runs at 1600m. She's been sound in her two runs back since her enforced six month "holiday" due to a bleeding attack and this bloke Bowman could win on a rocking horse at the moment. Suavito is top class and drops back from open company to fillies and mares grade here. She needs a firm track though. Badawiya is not the worst but the barrier is awful. Miss Rose De Lago and Noble Protector aren't hopeless.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Azkadellia

DANGER  

6. Zanbagh

FOR EXOTICS

16. Risque
12. Heavens Above
9. Vergara
13. Lady Le Fay

Good punting!

The Championships Day 1 - 02.04.016

With so many good fields to digest in the lead-up to this weekend I nearly forgot to submit my blog.

I only remembered when I drove past that billboard for "Gambling Awareness Week".

Thanks guys.

Who's Hot? 

James McDonald forces his way into this segment following his four winners at Rosehilll last weekend.

He has some super rides tomorrow with quite a few of his mounts well fancied in early betting such as Astern (Race 1 No. 1), Telperion (Race 6 No. 1), Tally (Race 7 No. 4),  Exosphere (Race 8 No. 14) and Bow Creek (Race 9 No. 5).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day.***

The Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Winx comes into this on the back of eight straight wins of which five were at the highest level. She claimed the G1 George Ryder Stakes (below) last start and seven of the last 12 winners came via that race with three completing the double. Chris Waller has trained the last three winners of this race and five of the last eight. In the last month jockey Hugh Bowman has won the G1 Australian Cup, G1 George Ryder Stakes, G1 B.M.W. and G1 Hong Kong Derby. A worthy favourite. The wide gate and the barrier are the only concerns.

Kermadec (second) stretched Winx last start and meets her 1.5kg better off at the handicap conditions. He won this race last year on a Soft 7 so he's one of the few that will handle an affected surface and he's had six starts at 1600m for three wins, two seconds and a luckless fourth in a G1 Australian Guineas. Two of those victories came in G1's at the Randwick mile. Chris Waller went back-to-back in this race with Sacred Falls in 2013/14 - can he make it a "double double"?

Next best in that G1 George Ryder Stakes was First Seal (fourth) and this time around she gets a 3.5kg swing in the weights from Winx and 2kg from Kermadec. She maps beautifully here and will be there to pounce in the straight if she's good enough. Her Randwick form reads very well (6:2-3-0) and Tommy Berry won this race three years ago on a lightly weighted horse at double figure odds. 

Happy Clapper (fifth) is the biggest beneficiary from the handicap conditions because he meets all those who finished in front of him much better off at the weights - First Seal 4.5kg, Kermadec 6.5kg and Winx a staggering 8kg. He won the G2 Villiers Stakes at the Randwick mile third-up last prep and that automatically qualified him for this race which has allowed trainer Pat Webster to take him along quietly. He is ticking over nicely for this and looks a real danger and the improving track is in his favour.

Turn Me Loose (sixth) looked a bit fizzy to me in the mounting yard last start so that may account for his below average performance. He didn't run along in front as hard as usual either which is his when he seems to put in his best performances. On his best form he'd be right in this but I just have to wonder if he is in his best form. He's certainly mixing it up a bit at the moment (bad run/good run/poor run) and it's hard to endorse a horse like that. Not hopeless.

Now to look at those who come via the road less traveled.

Azkadellia is at the stage of her campaign where she put in her best runs last Spring. Fourth run in she almost overcame the leader bias at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day when just missing in the G3 Tesio Stakes. She backed up seven days later to produce one of the runs of the carnival (below) when again defying the pattern to be less than a length off Politeness and Fenway in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on Derby Day. The wide gate makes it tricky but watch for a big run from her tomorrow and again next week in the G1 Coolmore Legacy Stakes.

Bow Creek comes out of the G1 Australian Cup where he had no chance given it was basically a $1.5M barrier trial. He'll get a more solid tempo here tomorrow and from barrier four he should get a beautiful run. If he can produce the devastating turn of foot he displayed two starts back when blitzing them in the G2 Peter Young Stakes he's right in this with just 54.5kg. Last October he was a half length second to Turn Me Loose in the G2 Crystal Mile.

He Or She won the G2 Blamey Stakes last start and second placegetter The United Stakes has subsequently won the G1 Ranvet so the form is holding up. He's three from four at 1600m and he did win fourth run in last campaign before coming from last to finish fifth in the G1 Emirates Stakes behind Turn Me Loose. Some markets offered as much as $51 but he's less than half that quote now.

Volkstok'n'barrell has had four attempts at the mile for three wins including his last two starts in N.Z. at G1 level. He was luckless in his only other run at the trip (below) when badly snookered on the rail all the way down the straight in a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes. He looked like he had a lot to give but just couldn't get out. He won the G1 Rosehill Guineas this time last year leaving the likes of Preferment, Hallowed Crown and Mongolian Khan in his wake. I just query whether that N.Z. form is good enough for this.

Good Project can be forgiven his last start disappointment because he stumbled at the start and pulled up lame. His previous effort was super when he reeled off some impressive closing splits charging into third in a G3 Liverpool City Cup that was run in record time. He won the G1 Railway Stakes in Perth last December but this looks a lot tougher. Having said that the trainer goes OK.

Everything else is $41+ but there are a couple who could tumble into the trifecta without totally shocking me.

Stratum Star has never won at a mile but he has placed in all five attempts including a G3 Carbine Club Stakes, a G2 Sandwon Guineas, a G1 Australian Guineas, a G1 Toorak Handicap and that hot G2 Blamey Stakes last start. Rudy is the best wet tracker if the surface does deteriorate and he finished fourth in this race last year against some quality types.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Winx

DANGER  

11. Azkadellia

FOR EXOTICS

10. Happy Clapper
1. Kermadec
5. Bow Creek
13. Rudy

OTHER GROUP 1'S

The Sires Produce (Group 1, 1400m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***


Telperion for mine here. The G1 Golden Slipper trifecta all drew inside gates and raced in the first half of the field whereas this bloke (below) was back near last after drawing wide and then had to weave a passage through the field down the straight. He still finished right on their heels and can be closer in the run tomorrow from the better barrier. He gives every indication that 1400m will suit him even better and the Godolphin stable is in hot form.

Of the others Yankee Rose was outstanding (above) in the G1 Golden Slipper. How much that first-up run took out of her I'm not sure. Detective is still a maiden after four starts but has finished runner up to Capitalist, French Fern, Kiss And Make Up and Seaburge. If he goes in then obviously Seaburge has to be in the mix somewhere because he looked strong at the end of the G2 VRC Sires Produce. I think you have to forgive a horse one bad run especially if it's in a G1 Golden Slipper so Good Standing gets another chance. Omei Sword caught the eye last start and she'll love 1400m. So will Zamzam.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Telperion

DANGER  

11. Omei Sword

FOR EXOTICS

8.Yankee Rose
3. Seaburge
2. Good Standing
5. Detective

The Australian Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***


Tarzino is hard to knock. He was pulling away from them at the end (below) of the G1 Rosehill Guineas and he's already won the G1 Victoria Derby in the Spring. He's improved with every run this time in and you could make an argument that he should also have won the G1 Australian Guineas. He's not going to be any flash price here but he just profiles so well for a race like this and I cannot tip against him.

Jameka was solid behind Tarzino last start (above) and did defeat him in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day last October. Tally was fifth in the same race but has gone to another level since with four straight wins this prep. His last start victory in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes was the win of a stayer. Vanbrugh was in the wrong part of the track when fourth (above) behind Tarzino and Jameka in the G1 Rosehill Guineas a fortnight ago. He did well to get that close given they walked in front. What's The Story was strong at the end of the G1 N.Z. Derby but the bunched finish worries me. Chris Waller has always had a wrap on Torgersen and his closing second in the G2 Tulloch Stakes last week was pleasing.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Tarzino

DANGER  

2. Vanbrugh

FOR EXOTICS

13. Jameka
4. Tally
6. Torgersen
8. What's The Story

The T. J. Smith (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***


Exosphere gets a chance to atone here after two Flemington flops. Prior to that he'd won five of his last six with his most emphatic victory coming at his only start at this track and distance when he brained them (below) in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. He came from near last to win by three lengths going away under a hold and left future G1 winner Japonisme in his wake. I think he could be something special. Jockey James McDonald is flying.

For exotics I think the cream does tend to rise to the top in these w-f-a contests so the class horses Chautauqua and Terravista have to go in. The love affair continues for me with Fell Swoop despite a below par effort in the G1 Galaxy. Shiraz was enormous in the same race and English reeled off spectacular closing sectionals after going back from a wide gate. Unfortunately the barrier draw hasn't helped her here either. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

14. Exosphere

DANGER  

1. Chautauqua

FOR EXOTICS

4. Terravista
13. Fell Swoop
15. English
9. Shiraz

Good punting!