A mixed bag last weekend with Dissident ($2.80) selected on top in the G1 Orr Stakes plus I tipped the trifecta ($349.20) among my top four. The less said about the rest the better with Jimmy Said Yes second ($2.10 place) and Weary third ($2.60 place) and Bull Point and Girl Guide were both very disappointing.
Looking ahead though and the G2 Hobartville Stakes looks a cracker with Preferment (G1 VRC Derby), Shooting To Win (G1 Caulfield Guineas), Hallowed Crown (G1 Golden Rose), Hampton Court (G1 Spring Champion Stakes) and Sweynesse (G3 Gloaming Stakes) resuming against the likes of Kermadec (G3 Carbine Club Stakes), Scissor Kick (G3 Up & Coming Stakes) and Panzer Diviasion (G3 Ming Dynasty Quality) who all have a run under their belt. More below.
The G1 Golden Slipper can't be too far away (just four weeks) because we also have the G2 Silver Slipper featuring several talented unbeaten juveniles such as Headwater, Ottoman, Paceman, Snitzel's Goddess and Voilier.
But the big one is The G1 Lightning Stakes.
Looking ahead though and the G2 Hobartville Stakes looks a cracker with Preferment (G1 VRC Derby), Shooting To Win (G1 Caulfield Guineas), Hallowed Crown (G1 Golden Rose), Hampton Court (G1 Spring Champion Stakes) and Sweynesse (G3 Gloaming Stakes) resuming against the likes of Kermadec (G3 Carbine Club Stakes), Scissor Kick (G3 Up & Coming Stakes) and Panzer Diviasion (G3 Ming Dynasty Quality) who all have a run under their belt. More below.
The G1 Golden Slipper can't be too far away (just four weeks) because we also have the G2 Silver Slipper featuring several talented unbeaten juveniles such as Headwater, Ottoman, Paceman, Snitzel's Goddess and Voilier.
But the big one is The G1 Lightning Stakes.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Blake Shinn had a bad run of outs that saw him go winless from the end of January until he saluted last weekend aboard Haptic. 22 rides without a win is rare for him but he has quickly bounced back with seven wins and four placings from his last 15 rides including four wins and a second from five rides at Randwick on Wednesday and a double at Newcastle yesterday.
He has a full book at Canterbury tonight and some nice rides at Rosehill tomorrow in Headwater (Race 5 No. 5), Shooting To Win (Race 6 No. 2) Diametric (Race 7 No. 9) and Zin Zan Eddie (Race 8 No. 6).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***
Lightning Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Deep Field: Since 2004 only one winner has returned more than $5.50. No three-year-old has won since Fastnet Rock in 2005. Four of the last six winners were 4-y-o's.
"The Speed Map" says - Not really relevant given a field of six in a five furlong dash down the straight. Lankan Rupee, Deep Field and Fab Fevola ahead of Brazen Beau, The Quarterback and Waterman's Bay.
Lankan Rupee does look the one to beat. His last two appearances here at Flemington have resulted in a close up third in the G1 Darley Classic on the final day of the Spring Carnival. and a win in the G1 Newmarket Handicap (below) with 56.5kg this time last year. He was unbeaten in four starts last Autumn and since being gelded he has had three fresh runs for two wins and a second. I like the fact that he has drawn outside in the field of six too because it gives Craig Newitt options.
Deep Field on the other hand is the young horse on the up who has the world at his feet. A lightly raced four-year-old with just the five starts for as many wins with an average winning margin of five lengths! He'll lead and give them something to chase but I just think the tougher, more experienced campaigner with be too strong for him here. But I was wrong once before.
The next best is The Quarterback who has had three starts at the Flemington 1000m for two wins and a second.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Not really relevant given a field of six in a five furlong dash down the straight. Lankan Rupee, Deep Field and Fab Fevola ahead of Brazen Beau, The Quarterback and Waterman's Bay.
Lankan Rupee does look the one to beat. His last two appearances here at Flemington have resulted in a close up third in the G1 Darley Classic on the final day of the Spring Carnival. and a win in the G1 Newmarket Handicap (below) with 56.5kg this time last year. He was unbeaten in four starts last Autumn and since being gelded he has had three fresh runs for two wins and a second. I like the fact that he has drawn outside in the field of six too because it gives Craig Newitt options.
Deep Field on the other hand is the young horse on the up who has the world at his feet. A lightly raced four-year-old with just the five starts for as many wins with an average winning margin of five lengths! He'll lead and give them something to chase but I just think the tougher, more experienced campaigner with be too strong for him here. But I was wrong once before.
Brazen Beau is another young talent on the rise. I do like him and think he is a horse to follow and his run to win the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes here (below) last Spring was enormous but I just wonder whether he is ready for this at this stage of his career. A win wouldn't surprise though because he will be stalking the two favourites and will get the last shot at them.
1 Lankan Rupee
5 Deep Field
6 Brazen Beau
4 The Quarterback
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
5 Deep Field
6 Brazen Beau
4 The Quarterback
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***
Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
With so many good horses resuming over what looks to be an unsuitable journey this could be a busy finish so I'm looking for the horse who I think can be handily placed and get the best run in transit. I think that horse is Scissor Kick. Granted he's drawn a terrible barrier but without a lot of speed on paper here I can see him crossing and getting into a good spot without too much difficulty. Especially given they have a 300m run to the first turn to sort themselves out. His first-up win was great and his only go at this track and distance he ran second last Spring in the G1 Golden Rose (below) beaten a whisker after being trapped wide all the way.
What a cracking race!
Locky's Selections
Delectation has to be in there for second given that he was just behind Scissor Kick last start but he does meet him 1.5kg worse off. The likely leader who could get a soft time in front but the step up to 1400m for the first time is a query. Sweynesse is the best of the fresh horses. First-up last August he won here over this distance beating subsequent G1 winners First Seal and Hampton Court before progressing all the way to a G1 Cox Plate (below) where he finished an unluck one and a half length eighth. That's red hot form. Hallowed Crown has only been beaten once in five starts and fresh last campaign he stormed home from near last to win the G2 Run To The Rose at this track albeit over 1200m. Inside draw may not be as good as it seems though as he normally gets back and could find himself held up in traffic at a crucial stage.
It means I've had to leave out G1 winners like Preferment, Shooting To Win and Hampton Court as well as G1 Oaks runner-up Thunder Lady but you can't tip 'em all and they all did need the run first-up last prep. Others I give chances at odds are Kermadec, Panzer Division and Meursault.
It means I've had to leave out G1 winners like Preferment, Shooting To Win and Hampton Court as well as G1 Oaks runner-up Thunder Lady but you can't tip 'em all and they all did need the run first-up last prep. Others I give chances at odds are Kermadec, Panzer Division and Meursault.
What a cracking race!
4 Scissor Kick
7 Delectation
3 Hallowed Crown
7 Delectation
5 Sweynesse
Other bets
Wawail (Flemington Race 3 No. 2) will probably be skinny odds but she does look a good thing. Unbeaten in four starts and she keeps rising to the challenge every time they raise the bar. Hayes/Dabernig and Walker have combined for six winners in the last nine days. Opened $2.70.
Greatwood (Rosehill Race 7 No. 5) won the Listed Premier's Cup second-up last prep right here at Rosehill over 1800m. In his wake were the likes of He's Your Man, Opinion and Who Shot Thebarman. His first-up run was satisfactory when he wasn't beaten far and kept battling away all down the straight. Opened $6.50.
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