Some good results last weekend with Greatwood successful ($7.70 win / $2.70 place) and the Hobartville Stakes quinella ($19.00) in the top four selections. I also had the Lightning Stakes trifecta in my top four too but there were no prizes for tipping that.
A huge weekend ahead with four Group 1 races - the Blue Diamond Stakes, Futurity Stakes and Oakleigh Plate (Melbourne) and the Chipping Norton Stakes (Sydney). I'll be focusing on the latter two as we have a small field and an odds-on favourite in the Futurity and there is not a lot of exposed form for the juveniles in the Blue Diamond.
We also see the return of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist in the G2 Peter Young Stakes.
A huge weekend ahead with four Group 1 races - the Blue Diamond Stakes, Futurity Stakes and Oakleigh Plate (Melbourne) and the Chipping Norton Stakes (Sydney). I'll be focusing on the latter two as we have a small field and an odds-on favourite in the Futurity and there is not a lot of exposed form for the juveniles in the Blue Diamond.
We also see the return of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist in the G2 Peter Young Stakes.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
James McDonald has had a good week. A treble last Saturday at Rosehill followed by three winners, two seconds and two thirds from seven rides at the same venue on Wednesday.
He has six rides at Warwick Farm tomorrow and his best chances appear to be Exosphere (Race 2 No. 5), Contributer (Race 6 No. 5) and Mahara (Race 7 No. 12).
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day. ***
Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)
Current market
*** Flamberge is an early scratching ***
"The Scriptures" say - Fast 'n' Rocking: In the last 13 years nine winners have paid $10 or more. In the same period ten winners were male and nine were 4-y-o's or older. Six of the last eight winners carried 53kg or more.
"The Speed Map" says - Tempo should be cracking. Capacity field, 1100m G1 handicap and only one turn to negotiate. They'll travel quicker than a nun's first curry.
Earthquake (seen below finishing second in the G1 Golden Slipper) is unbeaten at three attempts at Caulfield including victory on this day last year in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. She has to be favourite on the back of that and given that she is also down in the weights and has two wins from three first-up runs with her only fresh failure coming on a wet track. On the downside only one three-year-old filly (Miss Kournikova in 2001) has won since 1991. I'm prepared to risk her at the short price.
Vain Queen is next in the market and with seven wins from 12 starts including three from five at this distance you can see why. Her Caulfield form is poor though with just the one win and no placings from four starts at the track. She has failed to finish a place in her two starts here at the 1100m but she is a winner of two from three fresh. She'll be finishing powerfully from the back given the expected hot tempo but I'm looking elsewhere for value because I think it's a wide open race.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Tempo should be cracking. Capacity field, 1100m G1 handicap and only one turn to negotiate. They'll travel quicker than a nun's first curry.
Earthquake (seen below finishing second in the G1 Golden Slipper) is unbeaten at three attempts at Caulfield including victory on this day last year in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. She has to be favourite on the back of that and given that she is also down in the weights and has two wins from three first-up runs with her only fresh failure coming on a wet track. On the downside only one three-year-old filly (Miss Kournikova in 2001) has won since 1991. I'm prepared to risk her at the short price.
Vain Queen is next in the market and with seven wins from 12 starts including three from five at this distance you can see why. Her Caulfield form is poor though with just the one win and no placings from four starts at the track. She has failed to finish a place in her two starts here at the 1100m but she is a winner of two from three fresh. She'll be finishing powerfully from the back given the expected hot tempo but I'm looking elsewhere for value because I think it's a wide open race.
Atmospherical is another who is building an impressive record with six wins and three placings from just the 11 career starts. She was good fresh when third behind a pretty smart one in Chautauqua and her second-up form reads two wins and a third from three attempts but that was in much more inferior company than this lot. She's an 1100m specialist with four wins and a third from five runs over the short course but this is her biggest test so far.
The other 15 are double figure odds so it's a good betting race if you are keen on something. Of them I think the best roughies are A Time For Julia who has finished top two in all four of her fresh appearances and has two wins and four placings from eight goes here at Caulfield. Bel Sprinter has a huge weight and a horror draw but he did run well in this race last year (below - yellow and black from last down the outside) with the same weight. Shamal Wind finished in a similar position and she will appreciate a strong tempo but she goes up 1.5kg on last year. Iconic flies fresh, gets weight relief and is drawn to get a great run. He's another who will be swooping late. Nostradamus has no weight and has trialled well in readiness for this and he is unbeaten fresh.
13 Iconic
18 Nostradamus
9 A Time For Julia
5 Shamal Wind
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
18 Nostradamus
9 A Time For Julia
5 Shamal Wind
Warwick Farm
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Weary was tipped here last start and was just fair in the G2 Apollo Stakes (below) when third to Contributer and Ninth Legion. I'm going to forgive him because he's not the first horse to look flat after a big first-up win and he sure as hell won't be the last. Third run in last Autumn he won the G3 Doncaster Prelude. The sting out of the ground is also a big plus.
Contributer was breathtaking first-up but how much has that taken out of him? Weary looked flat after his big first-up win and "second-up syndrome" has claimed many a good galloper. It's also worth noting that five of this blokes six wins came when he was resuming from a spell. Silent Achiever can produce second-up and she did catch the eye first up in the G2 Apollo Stakes (see above - gold, navy cap) when she rattled home from the back. Up to 1600m appeals too. Lucia Valentina has not run a place in three second-up appearances but she was another who was hard to miss in the Apollo (above - green, navy sash) getting up along the (inferior) inside section. A two-time G1 winner but both were at 2000m and both were third run in. G1 Australian Cup in two weeks?
Locky's Selections
8 Weary
5 Contributer
15 Lucia Valentina
5 Contributer
14 Silent Achiever
Other bets
Vodnik (Doomben Race 2 No. 4) is one I tipped last start and it was a good run to come from well back in the field and beat all bar the odds-on favourite. Not really backable unless in your multis but he's on the way up and I'm going to follow him. Opened $2.10.
Adrift (Warwick Farm Race 4 No. 7) surprised a few first-up when backed from $101 into $41 before landing some big bets. She's been well tried again here ($10 into $7) and although I am a huge fan of First Seal and scared to death of her I'm going to have an each-way play on this filly. She could be one out of the box. Opened $10.
Mourinho (Caulfield Race 6 No. 3) is in super form this time in and he looks like he'll get another cosy run here tomorrow. He was solid behind Dissident last start in the G1 Orr Stakes (below) two weeks ago and should improve off that. The top two look obvious dangers but this guy has race fitness on his side whereas Protectionist is first-up over an unsuitable 1800m. Happy Trails usually puts in his best run third-up so I'm waiting for the G1 Australian Cup in a fortnight with him. Opened $7.50.
Mahara (Warwick Farm Race 7 No. 12) won second-up last prep and then got the job done on Melbourne Cup Day at $6.00. Didn't have a lot of luck in running first-up but still motored to the line so the step up to 1400m looks ideal. Opened $8.50.
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