This is the final week without a G1 with the C.F. Orr Stakes to kickstart proceedings next weekend at the resurfaced Caulfield track. After this Saturday we will have a G1 race every weekend until June except ANZAC Day.
Thank God because as a Seahawks fan I couldn't stand six months with nothing to watch but the replay of that play in the Super Bowl.
We will have a rather firm track in Sydney this weekend so look for horses who will improve getting back on top of the ground because recent meetings have been dogged by inclement weather.
Thank God because as a Seahawks fan I couldn't stand six months with nothing to watch but the replay of that play in the Super Bowl.
We will have a rather firm track in Sydney this weekend so look for horses who will improve getting back on top of the ground because recent meetings have been dogged by inclement weather.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Trainer Gerald Ryan has had five winners and three placegetters in the last week from just the 10 starters at a strike rate of 50% Win / 80% Place.
He has two runners tonight at Canterbury and another tomorrow at Newcastle but his only Saturday metro runner is Inz'n'out (Rosehill Race 5 No. 5).
Rosehill
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Breeders Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 4-y-o and up mares set weights plus penalties)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Catkins: First run in 1996, this race has been won by the likes of Staging, Spinning Hill, Private Steer, Hot Danish, More Joyous and Steps In Time (twice). 10 of the last 11 winners have carried 55.5kg or more. A race for quality mares.
"The Speed Map" says - Not a lot of early pace here. Role Model and Catkins probably look to cross from wide gates with Mihiri and Marianne to park behind them. The rest will drift back.
Catkins does look well placed here at just three kilos over the limit given she is a three-time G1 placegetter including her last start third (below) in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on the final day of the Spring Carnival. She seems to love this time of year - she won on debut in January 2012, in March 2013 she won the Listed Fireball Quality first-up at Rosehill and this time last year she won this very race (again first-up) beating the likes of Steps In Time, White Sage, Sharnee Rose, Streama and Driefontein. This is much easier. The only knock is the fact that half of her wins have come on soft tracks and all of her placings have come on firm ground.
Mihiri was very impressive when winning last start but that was a BM80 and this is a G2 so it's a big class rise here. Having said that it's hard to knock a mare who has finished top two in six of her last eight outings and she will appreciate the firm surface because although a winner on wet track she's much better on top of the ground. The only horse in the race who isn't first-up or second-up so she has race fitness on her side.
Marianne was also nominated her for the much easier BM87 race here at Rosehill but they have elected to take on the big guns instead. I'm just concerned that she's staying at the 1200m second-up because both her previous second-up runs (which were great) were at 1400m. Rock solid in the betting and hasn't budged. Has the benefit of a run under her belt whereas six of the ten runners here are first-up.
Plucky Belle has been well tried at good odds ($15 into $9) and did win a trial by 10 lengths in readiness for this but she tends to space her wins so I'm happy to risk her. Mind you I said the same about Driefontein last week and very nearly ended up with an omelette on my face. Still - you can't tip 'em all.
Neena Rock hasn't missed a place in three fresh runs including a three length third behind Catkins in the G3 Sheraco Stakes at this course and distance back in September. I don't know that she'll be fully wound up for this though because her best runs have been at 1400m-1600m. I think she may have bigger fish to fry down the track such as races like the G1 Coolmore Classic and the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes. Still a definite place hope.
The rest are double figures but I don't mind Role Model because she meets Mihiri three kilos better off for her last start defeat. This is a tougher race but she was competitive in Black type races last season and she does get some weight relief here. Lilliburlero can perform well after a break here too. In February last year she won the G3 Triscay Stakes first-up over 1200m at Randwick and last Spring she was competitive fresh in a straight race at Flemington around the likes of Vain Queen, Bounding and Shamal Wind.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Not a lot of early pace here. Role Model and Catkins probably look to cross from wide gates with Mihiri and Marianne to park behind them. The rest will drift back.
Catkins does look well placed here at just three kilos over the limit given she is a three-time G1 placegetter including her last start third (below) in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on the final day of the Spring Carnival. She seems to love this time of year - she won on debut in January 2012, in March 2013 she won the Listed Fireball Quality first-up at Rosehill and this time last year she won this very race (again first-up) beating the likes of Steps In Time, White Sage, Sharnee Rose, Streama and Driefontein. This is much easier. The only knock is the fact that half of her wins have come on soft tracks and all of her placings have come on firm ground.
Mihiri was very impressive when winning last start but that was a BM80 and this is a G2 so it's a big class rise here. Having said that it's hard to knock a mare who has finished top two in six of her last eight outings and she will appreciate the firm surface because although a winner on wet track she's much better on top of the ground. The only horse in the race who isn't first-up or second-up so she has race fitness on her side.
Marianne was also nominated her for the much easier BM87 race here at Rosehill but they have elected to take on the big guns instead. I'm just concerned that she's staying at the 1200m second-up because both her previous second-up runs (which were great) were at 1400m. Rock solid in the betting and hasn't budged. Has the benefit of a run under her belt whereas six of the ten runners here are first-up.
Plucky Belle has been well tried at good odds ($15 into $9) and did win a trial by 10 lengths in readiness for this but she tends to space her wins so I'm happy to risk her. Mind you I said the same about Driefontein last week and very nearly ended up with an omelette on my face. Still - you can't tip 'em all.
The rest are double figures but I don't mind Role Model because she meets Mihiri three kilos better off for her last start defeat. This is a tougher race but she was competitive in Black type races last season and she does get some weight relief here. Lilliburlero can perform well after a break here too. In February last year she won the G3 Triscay Stakes first-up over 1200m at Randwick and last Spring she was competitive fresh in a straight race at Flemington around the likes of Vain Queen, Bounding and Shamal Wind.
1 Catkins
5 Lilliburlero
8 Role Model
9 Mihiri
5 Lilliburlero
8 Role Model
9 Mihiri
Other bets
Tudor (Moonee Vally FRIDAY Race 6 No. 6) is coming via the G2 Australia Stakes and that looks a good form race for this given that it was run at this course and distance but with a much stronger field. He meets It Is Written 2.5 kg better off and should get an easier run this time near the lead from the good barrier. His previous two runs at the MV 1200m resulted in a second behind the talented Fast Cash and a two and a half length win last September. Opened $5.00.
Arena Rock (Sandown Race 3 No. 2) gets another chance after her narrow, fighting second last time out when conceding 6kg to the winner. There was a decent gap between them and the third horse which is always a good sign and although she does have her fair share of weight again the use of a claiming apprentice this time will help. Opened $3.80.
Woodbine (Rosehill Race 7 No. 3) has been a big market mover since the scratching of Marianne and he does look the class act here. He was only three lengths off them in the G1 Epsom last October (below) and then was less than two lengths behind Hucklebuck in the G3 Yellowglen Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. He's won twice first-up before and his seven starts in non-stakes races have yielded four wins and a third. Opened $5.00.
Vodnik (Doomben Race 5 No. 4) is a lightly raced imported galloper who is really hitting his straps now that he's got up to a staying trip. He's working his way through the grades and his last two wins have been dominant and I think he can continue to step up. Drawn to get a good run in transit. Opened $5.00.
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