Not a bad day out last Saturday with Catkins selected on top and the trifecta ($73.30) amongst my top four selections. Vodnik ($2.00 place) was a brave second behind the odds-on favourite and Tudor just missed on Friday night at the Valley. Woodbine and Arena Rock were disappointing.
Looking forward we have a bumper weekend with 14 black type races across three states and a stack of top quality gallopers resuming.
Three G1 winning fillies in Mossfun (Golden Slipper), First Seal (Flight Stakes) and Amicus (1000 Guineas) return in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes. The G3 Southern Cross Stakes sees the first appearance in 22 months for Fiveandahalfstar who hasn't started since winning the G1 BMW in April 2013. G1 Turnbull Stakes winner Lucia Valentina kicks off her Autumn campaign in the G2 Apollo Stakes while exciting sprinter Chautauqa (below) resumes in the G2 Rubiton Stakes.
And I haven't even got to the G1 Orr Stakes yet.
Looking forward we have a bumper weekend with 14 black type races across three states and a stack of top quality gallopers resuming.
Three G1 winning fillies in Mossfun (Golden Slipper), First Seal (Flight Stakes) and Amicus (1000 Guineas) return in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes. The G3 Southern Cross Stakes sees the first appearance in 22 months for Fiveandahalfstar who hasn't started since winning the G1 BMW in April 2013. G1 Turnbull Stakes winner Lucia Valentina kicks off her Autumn campaign in the G2 Apollo Stakes while exciting sprinter Chautauqa (below) resumes in the G2 Rubiton Stakes.
And I haven't even got to the G1 Orr Stakes yet.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Tony McEvoy had five runners across three states last weekend for three winners and two seconds. It was his second successive two-state treble following winners at Morphettville and Rosehill the previous Saturday. In between he had a midweek double at Gawler. He's had three successive Saturday metro doubles in Adelaide. In the last three weeks he's had 39 starters for 12 winners and 10 placegetters.
He's spread them around again tomorrow with runners in SA, NSW and Victoria but his best chances appear to be Alpine Eagle (Morphettville Race 5 No. 1), Lucky Lucky Lucky (Morphettville Race 7 No. 2) Last Wish (Randwick Race 2 No. 9) and Affirmation (Caulfield Race 7 No. 9).
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a humid, cloudy day with a high chance of showers. ***
C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Dissident: Three-year-olds dominated this race between 1998 and 2003 winning it six times in a row but in the ensuing 11 runnings only once has the younger brigade been successful. Since 2004 eight winners returned $3.75 or less and seven of those started favourite including the last five in a row. Peter Moody has trained four of the last five winners and three of them came via the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley a fortnight prior. Two were beaten as odds-on favourite in that race. A quick scan of the honour roll in the same period reveals names like Black Caviar, All Too Hard, Typhoon Tracy (twice), Maldivian, El Segundo, Elvstroem and Lonhro. This is a race for serious horses.
"The Speed Map" says - This will very likely end up a tactical, sit-and-sprint affair. There doesn't look to be a lot of natural speed here on paper and we have a lot of horses resuming who will either be underdone, looking for further or eyeing off bigger riches in the coming weeks. I expect only Star Rolling and Java will press for the lead with Dissident, Mourinho, Mouro and Entirely Platinum handy. Especially given the short run to the first corner.
Dissident does look the one to beat. Second-up last campaign he won the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) beating the likes of Fawkner and Puissance De Lune. Second run in this time last year he won the G2 Hobartville Stakes. The weight-for-age conditions suit him better than any other runner and he is one of the few in this race who can race handily in what could be a dawdling affair.
Petrology won the G2 Sandown Guineas at the end of last Spring but that race really hasn't produced any winners of note in recent years. He was good when resuming behind Java in the G3 Manfred Stakes when lumping 59kg but I have to question that strength of that form relative to a race like this. He's gone up second favourite but I'm happy to risk him here.
Java is another I can't warm to for the reasons already outlined above. Two months ago he was still a maiden and this is a big step up from G3's at Sandown and BM64's at Mornington. Granted he's won four in a row and by some big margins but I'd prefer to have seen him in something easier like the G2 Autumn Stakes.
Entirely Platinum has trialled well in preparation for this and he did win first-up last campaign albeit in much weaker grade. He has the advantage of being able to sit up on the speed and he's won four from five at the 1400m. An ultra consistent type who rarely runs a bad race so he's a definite knockout chance at odds and a must for trifectas and first fours.
Mourinho caused a boilover first-up winning the G2 Australia Stakes. Barrier three and his pattern of racing forward should see him get a saloon passage in transit here and second-up last Spring he split The Cleaner and Foreteller when second in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes. No wins from five attempts at the 1400m though.
Real Love is building up an impressive record with five wins and six placings from 13 starts. She hasn't missed a top two finish this season and immediately prior to her little freshen up she had strung together a hat-trick of wins in WA feature races the G3 Queen's Cup, the Listed WA St. Leger and G2 Perth Cup. Six weeks off and dropping from 2400m to 1400m is the concern.
The rest are pretty much $21+ but Star Rolling did win the G2 Lawrence Stakes first-up last Spring at this track and distance. He got away with a soft lead that day (first 800m 49.07sec) but he may very well get that again here tomorrow. Bagman bis probably looking for further but he did catch the eye first up in the G2 Expressway Stakes. Mouro hasn't raced since Boxing Day but he carried 60kg on that occasion and just missed Jacquinot Bay who has subsequently won twice.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - This will very likely end up a tactical, sit-and-sprint affair. There doesn't look to be a lot of natural speed here on paper and we have a lot of horses resuming who will either be underdone, looking for further or eyeing off bigger riches in the coming weeks. I expect only Star Rolling and Java will press for the lead with Dissident, Mourinho, Mouro and Entirely Platinum handy. Especially given the short run to the first corner.
Dissident does look the one to beat. Second-up last campaign he won the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) beating the likes of Fawkner and Puissance De Lune. Second run in this time last year he won the G2 Hobartville Stakes. The weight-for-age conditions suit him better than any other runner and he is one of the few in this race who can race handily in what could be a dawdling affair.
Petrology won the G2 Sandown Guineas at the end of last Spring but that race really hasn't produced any winners of note in recent years. He was good when resuming behind Java in the G3 Manfred Stakes when lumping 59kg but I have to question that strength of that form relative to a race like this. He's gone up second favourite but I'm happy to risk him here.
Java is another I can't warm to for the reasons already outlined above. Two months ago he was still a maiden and this is a big step up from G3's at Sandown and BM64's at Mornington. Granted he's won four in a row and by some big margins but I'd prefer to have seen him in something easier like the G2 Autumn Stakes.
Happy Trails is being set for the G1 Australian Cup in four weeks time following his win in the other Flemington G1 2000m w-f-a feature the Mackinnon Stakes on Derby Day (below). With that in mind you would think this would just be a pipe opener to blow off the cobwebs. He does have some fresh form but it is going back a ways and his last three first-up runs have been average.
Mourinho caused a boilover first-up winning the G2 Australia Stakes. Barrier three and his pattern of racing forward should see him get a saloon passage in transit here and second-up last Spring he split The Cleaner and Foreteller when second in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes. No wins from five attempts at the 1400m though.
Spillway ran an enormous race fresh last campaign when he just failed to run down Star Rolling in the G2 Lawrence Stakes at w-f-a over the Caulfield 1400m. He steamed home from last in a slowly run race just as he did at his next start when a length and a half fourth in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes behind Dissident, Fawkner and Puissance De Lune. The problem is he may not get a fast run race here either.
Real Love is building up an impressive record with five wins and six placings from 13 starts. She hasn't missed a top two finish this season and immediately prior to her little freshen up she had strung together a hat-trick of wins in WA feature races the G3 Queen's Cup, the Listed WA St. Leger and G2 Perth Cup. Six weeks off and dropping from 2400m to 1400m is the concern.
2 Dissident
10 Star Rolling
3 Mourinho
11 Entirely Platinum
10 Star Rolling
3 Mourinho
11 Entirely Platinum
Other bets
Jimmy Says Yes (Doomben Race 3 No. 4) was entered at Port Macquarie today but the Lees stable have elected to bring him north for a Saturday metro meeting in much higher grade. He won well two starts ago and was unlucky last time when things didn't go his way. I doubt they've made the trip to Queensland for a holiday. Opened $8.00.
Bull Point (Randwick Race 4 No. 5) finished a half length third behind Terravista in the G3 Show County Quality last August when first-up. His only other fresh runs have resulted in two wins including a victory at Caulfield this time last year in the G3 Manfred Stakes. Well weighted, well drawn and the jockey is a star. Opened $5.00.
Red Excitement (Caulfield Race 5 No. 10) has won his last five in a row. First-up he beat Burbero who has since had three subsequent starts for two wins and a second. Second-up he beat Tried and Tired who has since finished a quarter length third in the Listed Barton Stakes. Great barrier, in on the minimum and the stable is flying. Opened $2.20.
Weary (Randwick Race 6 No. 6) has the benefit of a run under his belt whereas nine of his fourteen rivals are having their first run this campaign and most of them are looking at longer races in the coming weeks. He looked dynamic winning the G2 Expressway Stakes first-up and two of the last three winners of this race completed that double - Rain Affair in 2012 and Appearance last year. Opened $5.50.
Bull Point (Randwick Race 4 No. 5) finished a half length third behind Terravista in the G3 Show County Quality last August when first-up. His only other fresh runs have resulted in two wins including a victory at Caulfield this time last year in the G3 Manfred Stakes. Well weighted, well drawn and the jockey is a star. Opened $5.00.
Red Excitement (Caulfield Race 5 No. 10) has won his last five in a row. First-up he beat Burbero who has since had three subsequent starts for two wins and a second. Second-up he beat Tried and Tired who has since finished a quarter length third in the Listed Barton Stakes. Great barrier, in on the minimum and the stable is flying. Opened $2.20.
Weary (Randwick Race 6 No. 6) has the benefit of a run under his belt whereas nine of his fourteen rivals are having their first run this campaign and most of them are looking at longer races in the coming weeks. He looked dynamic winning the G2 Expressway Stakes first-up and two of the last three winners of this race completed that double - Rain Affair in 2012 and Appearance last year. Opened $5.50.
Girl Guide (Caulfield Race 9 No. 5) split Sweet Idea and Catkins in the G2 Tristarc Stakes the last time she started here at Caulfield back in October. Her only two other runs here have resulted in a win and a second. In fact this mare has never missed a place in 10 starts up to 1400m and she won by three lengths first-up last prep. Opened $3.70.
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