Blue Diamond Stakes Day preview

Some good results last weekend with Greatwood successful ($7.70 win / $2.70 place)  and the Hobartville Stakes quinella ($19.00) in the top four selections. I also had the Lightning Stakes trifecta in my top four too but there were no prizes for tipping that.

A huge weekend ahead with four Group 1 races - the Blue Diamond Stakes, Futurity Stakes and Oakleigh Plate (Melbourne) and the Chipping Norton Stakes (Sydney). I'll be focusing on the latter two as we have a small field and an odds-on favourite in the Futurity and there is not a lot of exposed form for the juveniles in the Blue Diamond.

We also see the return of Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist in the G2 Peter Young Stakes.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

James McDonald has had a good week. A treble last Saturday at Rosehill followed by three winners, two seconds and two thirds from seven rides at the same venue on Wednesday. 

He has six rides at Warwick Farm tomorrow and his best chances appear to be Exosphere (Race 2 No. 5), Contributer (Race 6 No. 5) and Mahara (Race 7 No. 12).

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day. ***

Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)

Current market

*** Flamberge is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Fast 'n' Rocking: In the last 13 years nine winners have paid $10 or more. In the same period ten winners were male and nine were 4-y-o's or older. Six of the last eight winners carried 53kg or more.

"The Speed Map" says - Tempo should be cracking. Capacity field, 1100m G1 handicap and only one turn to negotiate. They'll travel quicker than a nun's first curry.

Earthquake (seen below finishing second in the G1 Golden Slipper) is unbeaten at three attempts at Caulfield including victory on this day last year in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. She has to be favourite on the back of that and given that she is also down in the weights and has two wins from three first-up runs with her only fresh failure coming on a wet track. On the downside only one three-year-old filly (Miss Kournikova in 2001) has won since 1991. I'm prepared to risk her at the short price.

Vain Queen is next in the market and with seven wins from 12 starts including three from five at this distance you can see why. Her Caulfield form is poor though with just the one win and no placings from four starts at the track. She has failed to finish a place in her two starts here at the 1100m but she is a winner of two from three fresh. She'll be finishing powerfully from the back given the expected hot tempo but I'm looking elsewhere for value because I think it's a wide open race.

Atmospherical is another who is building an impressive record with six wins and three placings from just the 11 career starts. She was good fresh when third behind a pretty smart one in Chautauqua and her second-up form reads two wins and a third from three attempts but that was in much more inferior company than this lot. She's an 1100m specialist with four wins and a third from five runs over the short course but this is her biggest test so far.

The other 15 are double figure odds so it's a good betting race if you are keen on something. Of them I think the best roughies are A Time For Julia who has finished top two in all four of her fresh appearances and has two wins and four placings from eight goes here at Caulfield. Bel Sprinter has a huge weight and a horror draw but he did run well in this race last year (below - yellow and black from last down the outside) with the same weight. Shamal Wind finished in a similar position and she will appreciate a strong tempo but she goes up 1.5kg on last year. Iconic flies fresh, gets weight relief and is drawn to get a great run. He's another who will be swooping late. Nostradamus has no weight and has trialled well in readiness for this and he is unbeaten fresh.

Locky's Selections

13 Iconic
18 Nostradamus
9 A Time For Julia
5 Shamal Wind

Warwick Farm

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Weary was tipped here last start and was just fair in the G2 Apollo Stakes (below) when third to Contributer and Ninth Legion. I'm going to forgive him because he's not the first horse to look flat after a big first-up win and he sure as hell won't be the last. Third run in last Autumn he won the G3 Doncaster Prelude. The sting out of the ground is also a big plus.

Contributer was breathtaking first-up but how much has that taken out of him? Weary looked flat after his big first-up win and "second-up syndrome" has claimed many a good galloper. It's also worth noting that five of this blokes six wins came when he was resuming from a spell. Silent Achiever can produce second-up and she did catch the eye first up in the G2 Apollo Stakes (see above - gold, navy cap) when she rattled home from the back. Up to 1600m appeals too. Lucia Valentina has not run a place in three second-up appearances but she was another who was hard to miss in the Apollo (above - green, navy sash) getting up along the (inferior) inside section. A two-time G1 winner but both were at 2000m and both were third run in. G1 Australian Cup in two weeks?

Locky's Selections

8 Weary
5 Contributer

14 Silent Achiever

15 Lucia Valentina

Other bets

Vodnik (Doomben Race 2 No. 4) is one I tipped last start and it was a good run to come from well back in the field and beat all bar the odds-on favourite. Not really backable unless in your multis but he's on the way up and I'm going to follow him. Opened $2.10.

Adrift (Warwick Farm Race 4 No. 7) surprised a few first-up when backed from $101 into $41 before landing some big bets. She's been well tried again here ($10 into $7) and although I am a huge fan of First Seal and scared to death of her I'm going to have an each-way play on this filly. She could be one out of the box. Opened $10. 

Mourinho (Caulfield Race 6 No. 3) is in super form this time in and he looks like he'll get another cosy run here tomorrow. He was solid behind Dissident last start in the G1 Orr Stakes (below) two weeks ago and should improve off that. The top two look obvious dangers but this guy has race fitness on his side whereas Protectionist is first-up over an unsuitable 1800m. Happy Trails usually puts in his best run third-up so I'm waiting for the G1 Australian Cup in a fortnight with him. Opened $7.50.

Mahara (Warwick Farm Race 7 No. 12) won second-up last prep and then got the job done on Melbourne Cup Day at $6.00. Didn't have a lot of luck in running first-up but still motored to the line so the step up to 1400m looks ideal. Opened $8.50.

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Lightning Stakes preview

A mixed bag last weekend with Dissident ($2.80) selected on top in the G1 Orr Stakes plus I tipped the trifecta ($349.20) among my top four. The less said about the rest the better with Jimmy Said Yes second ($2.10 place) and Weary third ($2.60 place) and Bull Point and Girl Guide were both very disappointing. 

Looking ahead though and the G2 Hobartville Stakes looks a cracker with Preferment (G1 VRC Derby), Shooting To Win (G1 Caulfield Guineas), Hallowed Crown (G1 Golden Rose), Hampton Court (G1 Spring Champion Stakes) and Sweynesse (G3 Gloaming Stakes) resuming against the likes of Kermadec (G3 Carbine Club Stakes), Scissor Kick (G3 Up & Coming Stakes) and Panzer Diviasion (G3 Ming Dynasty Quality) who all have a run under their belt. More below.

The G1 Golden Slipper can't be too far away (just four weeks) because we also have the G2 Silver Slipper featuring several talented unbeaten juveniles such as Headwater, Ottoman, Paceman, Snitzel's Goddess and Voilier.

But the big one is The G1 Lightning Stakes.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Blake Shinn had a bad run of outs that saw him go winless from the end of January until he saluted last weekend aboard Haptic. 22 rides without a win is rare for him but he has quickly bounced back with seven wins and four placings from his last 15 rides including four wins and a second from five rides at Randwick on Wednesday and a double at Newcastle yesterday.

He has a full book at Canterbury tonight and some nice rides at Rosehill tomorrow in Headwater (Race 5 No. 5), Shooting To Win (Race 6 No. 2) Diametric (Race 7 No. 9) and Zin Zan Eddie (Race 8 No. 6).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

Lightning Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Deep Field: Since 2004 only one winner has returned more than $5.50. No three-year-old has won since Fastnet Rock in 2005. Four of the last six winners were 4-y-o's.

"The Speed Map" says - Not really relevant given a field of six in a five furlong dash down the straight. Lankan Rupee, Deep Field and Fab Fevola  ahead of Brazen Beau,  The Quarterback and Waterman's Bay.

Lankan Rupee does look the one to beat. His last two appearances here at Flemington have resulted in a close up third in the G1 Darley Classic on the final day of the Spring Carnival. and a win in the G1 Newmarket Handicap (below) with 56.5kg this time last year. He was unbeaten in four starts last Autumn and since being gelded he has had three fresh runs for two wins and a second. I like the fact that he has drawn outside in the field of six too because it gives Craig Newitt options.

Deep Field on the other hand is the young horse on the up who has the world at his feet. A lightly raced four-year-old with just the five starts for as many wins with an average winning margin of five lengths! He'll lead and give them something to chase but I just think the tougher, more experienced campaigner with be too strong for him here. But I was wrong once before. 

Brazen Beau is another young talent on the rise. I do like him and think he is a horse to follow and his run to win the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes here (below) last Spring was enormous but I just wonder whether he is ready for this at this stage of his career. A win wouldn't surprise though because he will be stalking the two favourites and will get the last shot at them.

The next best is The Quarterback who has had three starts at the Flemington 1000m for two wins and a second.

Locky's Selections

1 Lankan Rupee
5 Deep Field
6 Brazen Beau
4 The Quarterback

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of a morning shower. ***

Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

With so many good horses resuming over what looks to be an unsuitable journey this could be a busy finish so I'm looking for the horse who I think can be handily placed and get the best run in transit.  I think that horse is Scissor Kick. Granted he's drawn a terrible barrier but without a lot of speed on paper here I can see him crossing and getting into a good spot without too much difficulty. Especially given they have a 300m run to the first turn to sort themselves out. His first-up win was great and his only go at this track and distance he ran second last Spring in the G1 Golden Rose (below) beaten a whisker after being trapped wide all the way.

Delectation has to be in there for second given that he was just behind Scissor Kick last start but he does meet him 1.5kg worse off. The likely leader who could get a soft time in front but the step up to 1400m for the first time is a query. Sweynesse is the best of the fresh horses. First-up last August he won here over this distance beating subsequent G1 winners First Seal and Hampton Court before progressing all the way to a G1 Cox Plate (below) where he finished an unluck one and a half length eighth. That's red hot form. Hallowed Crown has only been beaten once in five starts and fresh last campaign he stormed home from near last to win the G2 Run To The Rose at this track albeit over 1200m. Inside draw may not be as good as it seems though as he normally gets back and could find himself held up in traffic at a crucial stage. 

It means I've had to leave out G1 winners like Preferment, Shooting To Win and Hampton Court as well as G1 Oaks runner-up Thunder Lady but you can't tip 'em all and they all did need the run first-up last prep. Others I give chances at odds are Kermadec, Panzer Division and Meursault.

What a cracking race!

Locky's Selections

4 Scissor Kick
7 Delectation

5 Sweynesse

3 Hallowed Crown

Other bets

Wawail (Flemington Race 3 No. 2) will probably be skinny odds but she does look a good thing. Unbeaten in four starts and she keeps rising to the challenge every time they raise the bar. Hayes/Dabernig and Walker have combined for six winners in the last nine days. Opened $2.70.

Greatwood (Rosehill Race 7 No. 5) won the Listed Premier's Cup second-up last prep right here at Rosehill over 1800m. In his wake were the likes of He's Your Man, Opinion and Who Shot Thebarman. His first-up run was satisfactory when he wasn't beaten far and kept battling away all down the straight. Opened $6.50.

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C.F. Orr Stakes preview

Not a bad day out last Saturday with Catkins selected on top and the trifecta ($73.30) amongst my top four selections. Vodnik ($2.00 place) was a brave second behind the odds-on favourite and Tudor just missed on Friday night at the Valley. Woodbine and Arena Rock were disappointing.

Looking forward we have a bumper weekend with 14 black type races across three states and a stack of top quality gallopers resuming.

Three G1 winning fillies in Mossfun (Golden Slipper), First Seal (Flight Stakes) and Amicus (1000 Guineas) return in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes. The G3 Southern Cross Stakes sees the first appearance in 22 months for Fiveandahalfstar who hasn't started since winning the G1 BMW in April 2013. G1 Turnbull Stakes winner Lucia Valentina kicks off her Autumn campaign in the G2 Apollo Stakes while exciting sprinter Chautauqa (below) resumes in the G2 Rubiton Stakes.

And I haven't even got to the G1 Orr Stakes yet.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Tony McEvoy had five runners across three states last weekend for three winners and two seconds. It was his second successive two-state treble following winners at Morphettville and Rosehill the previous Saturday. In between he had a midweek double at Gawler. He's had three successive Saturday metro doubles in Adelaide. In the last three weeks he's had 39 starters for 12 winners and 10 placegetters.

He's spread them around again tomorrow with runners in SA, NSW and Victoria but his best chances appear to be Alpine Eagle (Morphettville Race 5 No. 1), Lucky Lucky Lucky (Morphettville Race 7 No. 2) Last Wish (Randwick Race 2 No. 9) and Affirmation (Caulfield Race 7 No. 9).

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a humid, cloudy day with a high chance of showers. ***

C.F. Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Dissident: Three-year-olds dominated this race between 1998 and 2003 winning it six times in a row but in the ensuing 11 runnings only once has the younger brigade been successful. Since 2004 eight winners returned $3.75 or less and seven of those started favourite including the last five in a row. Peter Moody has trained four of the last five winners and three of them came via the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley a fortnight prior. Two were beaten as odds-on favourite in that race. A quick scan of the honour roll in the same period reveals names like Black Caviar, All Too Hard, Typhoon Tracy (twice), Maldivian, El Segundo, Elvstroem and Lonhro. This is a race for serious horses.

"The Speed Map" says - This will very likely end up a tactical, sit-and-sprint affair. There doesn't look to be a lot of natural speed here on paper and we have a lot of horses resuming who will either be underdone, looking for further or eyeing off bigger riches in the coming weeks. I expect only Star Rolling and Java will press for the lead with Dissident, Mourinho, Mouro and Entirely Platinum handy. Especially given the short run to the first corner.

Dissident does look the one to beat. Second-up last campaign he won the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) beating the likes of Fawkner and Puissance De Lune. Second run in this time last year he won the G2 Hobartville Stakes. The weight-for-age conditions suit him better than any other runner and he is one of the few in this race who can race handily in what could be a dawdling affair.

Petrology won the G2 Sandown Guineas at the end of last Spring but that race really hasn't produced any winners of note in recent years. He was good when resuming behind Java in the G3 Manfred Stakes when lumping 59kg but I have to question that strength of that form relative to a race like this. He's gone up second favourite but I'm happy to risk him here.

Java is another I can't warm to for the reasons already outlined above. Two months ago he was still a maiden and this is a big step up from G3's at Sandown and BM64's at Mornington. Granted he's won four in a row and by some big margins but I'd prefer to have seen him in something easier like the G2 Autumn Stakes.

Happy Trails is being set for the G1 Australian Cup in four weeks time following his win in the other Flemington G1 2000m w-f-a feature the Mackinnon Stakes on Derby Day (below). With that in mind you would think this would just be a pipe opener to blow off the cobwebs. He does have some fresh form but it is going back a ways and his last three first-up runs have been average.

Entirely Platinum has trialled well in preparation for this and he did win first-up last campaign albeit in much weaker grade. He has the advantage of being able to sit up on the speed and he's won four from five at the 1400m. An ultra consistent type who rarely runs a bad race so he's a definite knockout chance at odds and a must for trifectas and first fours.

Mourinho caused a boilover first-up winning the G2 Australia Stakes. Barrier three and his pattern of racing forward should see him get a saloon passage in transit here and second-up last Spring he split The Cleaner and Foreteller when second in the G2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes. No wins from five attempts at the 1400m though.

Spillway ran an enormous race fresh last campaign when he just failed to run down Star Rolling in the G2 Lawrence Stakes at w-f-a over the Caulfield 1400m. He steamed home from last in a slowly run race just as he did at his next start when a length and a half fourth in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes behind Dissident, Fawkner and Puissance De Lune. The problem is he may not get a fast run race here either.

Real Love is building up an impressive record with five wins and six placings from 13 starts. She hasn't missed a top two finish this season and immediately prior to her little freshen up she had strung together a hat-trick of wins in WA feature races the G3 Queen's Cup, the Listed WA St. Leger and G2 Perth Cup. Six weeks off and dropping from 2400m to 1400m is the concern.

The rest are pretty much $21+ but Star Rolling did win the G2 Lawrence Stakes first-up last Spring at this track and distance. He got away with a soft lead that day (first 800m 49.07sec) but he may very well get that again here tomorrow. Bagman bis probably looking for further but he did catch the eye first up in the G2 Expressway Stakes. Mouro hasn't raced since Boxing Day but he carried 60kg on that occasion and just missed Jacquinot Bay who has subsequently won twice.

Locky's Selections

2 Dissident
10 Star Rolling 
3 Mourinho 
11 Entirely Platinum

Other bets

Jimmy Says Yes (Doomben Race 3 No. 4) was entered at Port Macquarie today but the Lees stable have elected to bring him north for a Saturday metro meeting in much higher grade. He won well two starts ago and was unlucky last time when things didn't go his way. I doubt they've made the trip to Queensland for a holiday. Opened $8.00.

Bull Point (Randwick Race 4 No. 5) finished a half length third behind Terravista in the G3 Show County Quality last August when first-up. His only other fresh runs have resulted in two wins including a victory at Caulfield this time last year in the G3 Manfred Stakes. Well weighted, well drawn and the jockey is a star. Opened $5.00.

Red Excitement (Caulfield Race 5 No. 10) has  won his last five in a row. First-up he beat Burbero who has since had three subsequent starts for two wins and a second. Second-up he beat Tried and Tired who has since finished a quarter length third in the Listed Barton Stakes. Great barrier, in on the minimum and the stable is flying. Opened $2.20.

Weary (Randwick Race 6 No. 6) has the benefit of a run under his belt whereas nine of his fourteen rivals are having their first run this campaign and most of them are looking at longer races in the coming weeks. He looked dynamic winning the G2 Expressway Stakes first-up and two of the last three winners of this race completed that double - Rain Affair in 2012 and Appearance last year. Opened $5.50.

Girl Guide (Caulfield Race 9 No. 5) split Sweet Idea and Catkins in the G2 Tristarc Stakes the last time she started here at Caulfield back in October. Her only two other runs here have resulted in a win and a second. In fact this mare has never missed a place in 10 starts up to 1400m and she won by three lengths first-up last prep. Opened $3.70.

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Breeders Classic preview

This is the final week without a G1 with the C.F. Orr Stakes to kickstart proceedings next weekend at the resurfaced Caulfield track. After this Saturday we will have a G1 race every weekend until June except ANZAC Day.

Thank God because as a Seahawks fan I couldn't stand six months with nothing to watch but the replay of that play in the Super Bowl.

We will have a rather firm track in Sydney this weekend so look for horses who will improve getting back on top of the ground because recent meetings have been dogged by inclement weather.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Trainer Gerald Ryan has had five winners and three placegetters in the last week from just the 10 starters at a strike rate of 50% Win / 80% Place.

He has two runners tonight at Canterbury and another tomorrow at Newcastle but his only Saturday metro runner is Inz'n'out (Rosehill Race 5 No. 5).

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Breeders Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 4-y-o and up mares set weights plus penalties)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Catkins: First run in 1996, this race has been won by the likes of Staging, Spinning Hill, Private Steer, Hot Danish, More Joyous and Steps In Time (twice). 10 of the last 11 winners have carried 55.5kg or more. A race for quality mares.

"The Speed Map" says - Not a lot of early pace here. Role Model and Catkins probably look to cross from wide gates with Mihiri and Marianne to park behind them. The rest will drift back.

Catkins does look well placed here at just three kilos over the limit given she is a three-time G1 placegetter including her last start third (below) in the G1 Myer Classic at Flemington on the final day of the Spring Carnival. She seems to love this time of year - she won on debut in January 2012, in March 2013 she won the Listed Fireball Quality first-up at Rosehill and this time last year she won this very race (again first-up) beating the likes of Steps In Time, White Sage, Sharnee Rose, Streama and Driefontein. This is much easier. The only knock is the fact that half of her wins have come on soft tracks and all of her placings have come on firm ground.

Mihiri was very impressive when winning last start but that was a BM80 and this is a G2 so it's a big class rise here. Having said that it's hard to knock a mare who has finished top two in six of her last eight outings and she will appreciate the firm surface because although a winner on wet track she's much better on top of the ground. The only horse in the race who isn't first-up or second-up so she has race fitness on her side.

Marianne was also nominated her for the much easier BM87 race here at Rosehill but they have elected to take on the big guns instead. I'm just concerned that she's staying at the 1200m second-up because both her previous second-up runs (which were great) were at 1400m. Rock solid in the betting and hasn't budged. Has the benefit of a run under her belt whereas six of the ten runners here are first-up.

Plucky Belle has been well tried at good odds ($15 into $9) and did win a trial by 10 lengths in readiness for this but she tends to space her wins so I'm happy to risk her. Mind you I said the same about Driefontein last week and very nearly ended up with an omelette on my face. Still - you can't tip 'em all.

Neena Rock hasn't missed a place in three fresh runs including a three length third behind Catkins in the G3 Sheraco Stakes at this course and distance back in September. I don't know that she'll be fully wound up for this though because her best runs have been at 1400m-1600m. I think she may have bigger fish to fry down the track such as races like the G1 Coolmore Classic and the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes. Still a definite place hope. 

The rest are double figures but I don't mind Role Model because she meets Mihiri three kilos better off for her last start defeat. This is a tougher race but she was competitive in Black type races last season and she does get some weight relief here. Lilliburlero can perform well after a break here too. In February last year she won the G3 Triscay Stakes first-up over 1200m at Randwick and last Spring she was competitive fresh in a straight race at Flemington around the likes of Vain Queen, Bounding and Shamal Wind. 

Locky's Selections

1 Catkins
5 Lilliburlero
8 Role Model
9 Mihiri

Other bets

Tudor (Moonee Vally FRIDAY Race 6 No. 6) is coming via the G2 Australia Stakes and that looks a good form race for this given that it was run at this course and distance but with a much stronger field. He meets It Is Written 2.5 kg better off and should get an easier run this time near the lead from the good barrier. His previous two runs at the MV 1200m resulted in a second behind the talented Fast Cash and a two and a half length win last September. Opened $5.00.

Arena Rock (Sandown Race 3 No. 2) gets another chance after her narrow, fighting second last time out when conceding 6kg to the winner. There was a decent gap between them and the third horse which is always a good sign and although she does have her fair share of weight again the use of a claiming apprentice this time will help. Opened $3.80.

Woodbine (Rosehill Race 7 No. 3) has been a big market mover since the scratching of Marianne and he does look the class act here. He was only three lengths off them in the G1 Epsom last October (below) and then was less than two lengths behind Hucklebuck in the G3 Yellowglen Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. He's won twice first-up before and his seven starts in non-stakes races have yielded four wins and a third. Opened $5.00.

Vodnik (Doomben Race 5 No. 4) is a lightly raced imported galloper who is really hitting his straps now that he's got up to a staying trip. He's working his way through the grades and his last two wins have been dominant and I think he can continue to step up. Drawn to get a good run in transit. Opened $5.00.

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