Quite a bit on this weekend with Group 1 racing continuing at Morphettville and a couple of Group races at the Gold Coast plus three $150,000 Listed races at Hawkesbury's stand-alone metropolitan meeting so let's go off and racing without any further ado.
LOOKING FORWARD
Morphettville
*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for just the chance of an isolated shower ***
Of all the trainer/jockey combos in the country who have combined more than 50 times in the last year Kelly Schweida and Ric McMahon rank third with 16 winners from 53 runners at a strike rate of 30% or three winners for every ten runners. Their best chance on the Gold Coast tomorrow appears to be Luke's Luck at around $9 (Race 9 No.3).
I've looked at all the venues for tomorrow and in terms of jockeys at certain tracks Christian Reith is flying at Hawkesbury with 17 winners in the last 12 months at a tick over 26% or roughly one winner every four rides. He has almost a full book tomorrow but his best appear to be Chosen Idol at $5 (Race 2 No. 4) and Speediness at $7 (Race 6 No. 3). Aerobatics at $11 (Race 5 No. 7) and Limes at $10 (Race 7 No. 7) also look good each-way chances.
I've looked at all the venues for tomorrow and in terms of jockeys at certain tracks Christian Reith is flying at Hawkesbury with 17 winners in the last 12 months at a tick over 26% or roughly one winner every four rides. He has almost a full book tomorrow but his best appear to be Chosen Idol at $5 (Race 2 No. 4) and Speediness at $7 (Race 6 No. 3). Aerobatics at $11 (Race 5 No. 7) and Limes at $10 (Race 7 No. 7) also look good each-way chances.
South Australian Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Shoreham.
Only one filly in th last 13 years and only three in the last thirty. Six of the last seven favourites have won. The highest price any of those paid was $4.50.
I guess you have to decide which form line you like here - the Australian Derby, the VRC St Leger, the Chairmans Stakes or something else. It's A Dundeel would be $1.04 here and even though Gerontius finished a long way behind him he was hitting the line powerfully unlike Hvasstan. The latter will appreciate a return to the Melbourne way but he's failed twice now at the classic distance so I can't wade into 3/1 sorry. Hippopus would also start a dominant favourite here after his slashing last start win so McNulty could be given a chance although he was thrashed by Shoreham at his previous start, even with a one kilo pull in the weights. Hioctdane was dominant last weekend but I feel that was against much weaker company. Molto Bene was unlucky in the Australasian Oaks but again that was a lower grade.
But quite frankly I can't believe this is a Group 1 race. The winner of this shouldn't be called a Derby winner. The winner of this shouldn't get Group 1 status. The winner of this shouldn't even get a trophy. They should get a free entry into a hurdle trial.
Locky's Selections
But quite frankly I can't believe this is a Group 1 race. The winner of this shouldn't be called a Derby winner. The winner of this shouldn't get Group 1 status. The winner of this shouldn't even get a trophy. They should get a free entry into a hurdle trial.
Locky's Selections
4 Gerontius
3 Shoreham
8 McNulty
Gold Coast
*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a fine, sunny day ***
Hollindale Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)
Current market
This is a much better race even though it is only a Group 2 and again we have several form lines merging and have to decide which way to go.
Lights of Heaven has come up favourite but I can't for the life of me see why. Yes she won the Neville Sellwood easily last start but I hardly think beating up on the likes of such luminaries of the turf as Hoylonny and Said Com entitles her to go around here at about 7/4 in the old language. Her opposition here have been racing in Group 1 company, although she did improve markedly when she came up to Queensland last year.
Solzhenitsyn was a serious threat in a Doncaster before the rain came and as I've pointed out a few times before he races best with two or more runs under his belt. His first up run behind Pierro was a cracker. Gets a dry track here.
Foreteller has three wins at the 1800m including victory in the St George Stakes four runs back. He also boasts a win over Fiveandahalfstar in the Ranvet this prep and forgive his fifth in the BMW because he doesn't stay 2400m but he still ran on to be beaten less than a length and a half. The drop back in distance and the long prep does worry me though.
Lamasery is four from four at 1800m and has two wins and two placings from four attempts second-up after a spell.
Lightinthenite won the Coongy over 2000m third run back last Spring and Stout Hearted is finally getting to a distance range that suits and he wasn't the worst in the Doncaster Prelude. The winner of that race Skyerush has subsequently won. Danleigh has to be a risk at 1800m.
I'm steering away from the horses who have been up for awhile and looking for fresh horses on the improve.
Lights of Heaven has come up favourite but I can't for the life of me see why. Yes she won the Neville Sellwood easily last start but I hardly think beating up on the likes of such luminaries of the turf as Hoylonny and Said Com entitles her to go around here at about 7/4 in the old language. Her opposition here have been racing in Group 1 company, although she did improve markedly when she came up to Queensland last year.
Solzhenitsyn was a serious threat in a Doncaster before the rain came and as I've pointed out a few times before he races best with two or more runs under his belt. His first up run behind Pierro was a cracker. Gets a dry track here.
Foreteller has three wins at the 1800m including victory in the St George Stakes four runs back. He also boasts a win over Fiveandahalfstar in the Ranvet this prep and forgive his fifth in the BMW because he doesn't stay 2400m but he still ran on to be beaten less than a length and a half. The drop back in distance and the long prep does worry me though.
Lamasery is four from four at 1800m and has two wins and two placings from four attempts second-up after a spell.
Lightinthenite won the Coongy over 2000m third run back last Spring and Stout Hearted is finally getting to a distance range that suits and he wasn't the worst in the Doncaster Prelude. The winner of that race Skyerush has subsequently won. Danleigh has to be a risk at 1800m.
I'm steering away from the horses who have been up for awhile and looking for fresh horses on the improve.
Locky's Selections
6 Lamasery
10 Stout Hearted
Gold Coast Guineas (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
I think the bookies have the market spot on here and Sizzling and Academus should fight this out. Both have trialled well going into this and are hard to split so quinellas and exactas might be the way to go. If forced to make a call I'd put Sizzling marginally ahead of Academus. Al Aneed for third as a bit of a roughie to put value in the trifecta.
Locky's Selections
1 Sizzling
4 Academus
8 Al Aneed
Other bets
Walk With Attitude (Flemington Race 7 No. 1) is ready to win and the $5 on offer looks generous. She'll be suited by the step up to 1200m after storming home last start and has won second-up at her only previous attempt. With the two kilo claim she isn't badly in at the weights with a 54kg minimum.
Peron (Gold Coast Race 2 No. 13) has won three from four and has had a little freshen up for this and drops back to the 1200m. There's been some early money but you can still get $4.40.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
The inquiry into the defeat of More Joyous in the All Aged Stakes last Saturday will continue next Monday with John Singleton, Gai Waterhouse and Tom Waterhouse all required to attend. Singleton has accused Gai Waterhouse of passing on sensitive information to her bookmaker son Tom about More Joyous. Singleton removed his horses from Waterhouse's stable after the row. No more real facts to report, we'll have to wait ntil it all comes out next week.
All Too Hard has run his last race in Australia and while he might arguably have the edge on Pierro in racetrack deeds and Horse of the Year voting he hasn't been rated as highly in the breeding barn. Coolmore has announced the first season fee for Pierro will be $77,000 while Vinery has set a slightly lower service fee of $66,000 for All Too Hard.
Leviathan owner Nathan Tinkler says the sale of his Patinck Farm racing empire could happen within weeks. Tinkler was at Doomben last weekend to watch his talented juvenile Hooked win the first race and when intrviewed on-course said "we've got a lot of people interested".
The injury sufeed by Reliable Man in winning last week's Queen Elizabeth Stakes may not be as bad as first feared. There was talk of retirement immediately after the race due to his value as a stallion proposition. More will be known once the swelling subsides. Many feared he had suffered a career-ending tendon injury when he stumbled just prior to the winning post.
To overseas news Tommy Berry has burst on to the Hong Kong scene riding a Group 1 winner at his first race meeting. The Golden Slipper and Doncaster winning jockey steered Military Attack to victory in the QEII Cup for leading trainer John Moore just hours after arriving.
Sheikh Fahad's Pearl Bloodstock will target this year's Cox Plate with Dubai World Cup fourth placegetter Side Glance but they won't be bringing 2011 Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden back for another assault. He's going to target the Arc instead. Meanwhile globetrotting Red Cadeaux (who Dunaden edged out in that 2011 Cup) has finished third in the Group 1 Tenno Sho in Japan.
And Shamexpress will have a barrier trial at the end of the month before heading to England in early June. The Newmarket winner returned to trainer Danny O'Brien's Flemington stables this week after two months off. O'Brien has mapped out a plan for three races starting with the King's Stand on June 18 and potentially the July Cup and the Nunthorpe Stakes.
LOOKING BACK
Randwick
Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m, open handicap)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Kelinni. 6th.
A gem of a ride from Bowman got Mourayan home. Norsqui and Aliyana Tilde battled on well after sitting behind the solid tempo. Blood Brotha looked the winner topping the rise but didn't finish it off. The rest were poor.
Locky's Selections
8 Tremec (SCR)
4 Kelinni (6th)
5 Maluckyday (7th)
Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Reliable Man. 1st. $12.30 win / $2.10 place
The winner is a good horse and I certainly lost no respect for the three-year-old in defeat because he could have turned it up at the furlong but kept whacking away to hold on for third after dropping back from 2400m at the end of a long prep againts seasoned, older horses. The rest of them aren't winning very often.
Locky's Selections
2 Reliable Man (1st) $12.30 win / $2.10 place
5 Lamasery (SCR)
Quinella 2-9 $3.80
Quinella 2-9 $3.80
All Aged Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: More Joyous. 7th.
A shame all the drama pre-and-post race overshadowed the tough win by the three-year-old. Coming off a long break and a setback and up against a tough frontrunner who was allowed to dictate he really dug in for the fight at the end. Fiorente was amazing and look out if he heads north to Brisbane. Rangirangdoo and Epaulette could also figure in the Winter Carnival.
Locky's Selections
A shame all the drama pre-and-post race overshadowed the tough win by the three-year-old. Coming off a long break and a setback and up against a tough frontrunner who was allowed to dictate he really dug in for the fight at the end. Fiorente was amazing and look out if he heads north to Brisbane. Rangirangdoo and Epaulette could also figure in the Winter Carnival.
Locky's Selections
7 All Too Hard (1st) $2.60 win / $1.20 pace
8 Epaulette (6th)
Champagne Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-0 set weights)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Guelph. 1st. $2.50 win / $1.40 place
Guelph got there in the last hop and deserved it because she started last Spring, subsequently went to Melbourne for a failed Blue Diamond campaign before coming back to Sydney for an assault on the Golden Slipper first-up for two months. She now finishes her two-year-old campaign with back-to-back Group 1's. Pumper nearly pinched it on Fuerza and Equator and Drago are two horses I want to follow next Spring as three-year-olds, especially when they get up to a trip.
11 Guelph (1st) $2.50 win / $1.40 place
1 Riocetto (11th)
Other bets
Last week I wrote:
Skyerush (Race 3 No. 3) loves the mile and loves Randwick. Well weighted here given she drops back to fillies and mares grade after beating the boys with an extra one and a half kilos last start. As previously mentioned, Guy Walter and Blake Shinn could win on a rocking horse. Should be backable at about $4. Won. $3.60 win / $1.70 place.
Last week I wrote:
Skyerush (Race 3 No. 3) loves the mile and loves Randwick. Well weighted here given she drops back to fillies and mares grade after beating the boys with an extra one and a half kilos last start. As previously mentioned, Guy Walter and Blake Shinn could win on a rocking horse. Should be backable at about $4. Won. $3.60 win / $1.70 place.
An all-up at Caulfield could be the way to go with Awesome Bro (Race 4 No. 3) and Rugged Cross (Race 5 No. 6) both well tried but likely to start short. 6th and 2nd.
Honey Flower (Adelaide Race 8 No. 8) has been scratched from a mares race in Melbourne to contest a much harder Listed race at Morphettville. Looks a good each-way chance at around $8. 3rd. $2.10 place.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Just a chicken sandwich for me please.
- Mama Cass, London, 28 July 1974
- Mama Cass, London, 28 July 1974
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