Eagle Farm hosts the first Group 1 of the carnival with the weight-for-age sprinters slugging it out in the BTC Cup. There's also a strong support card with the two-year-olds stepping out in the Group 2 Champagne Classic whilst the Queensland Derby hopefuls line up in the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate and potential Brisbane Cup candidates will go around in the Group 3 Chairman's Handicap.
Some good sprinters will be on show in Adelaide too with Morphettville the venue for the Group 1 Goodwood. It's backed up by three Group 3's including the SA Fillies Classic which always seems to throw up a live chance for the Queensland Oaks in three weeks time.
A handy field of stayers will line-up at Rosehill for the Listed Lord Mayor's Cup and with two $100,000 races on at Caulfield there's good quality racing Australia wide and plenty of winners to be found.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
In the last year Les Ross and Brad Stewart have combined 59 times for 21 winners while Kris Lees and Christian Reith have notched 20 wins from just 56 runners. That's a strike rate of a tick over 35% or one in three. Pays to follow those sorts of combos.
Ross/Stewart
Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 5 Mishani Stealth ($17)
Lees/Reith
Rosehill Race 3 No. 7 Urgent Bells ($9.50)
Rosehill Race 4 No. 4 Brannickers ($5.50)
Rosehill Race 6 No. 13 Pirate Bay ($7)
Arguably the three hottest jockeys in the country in the last three weeks have been Damian Browne, Glen Colless and Hugh Bowman. Bowman has ridden 14 winners in that period with the other two notching a respectable 13. Browne has the best strike rate with his bag coming from just 44 rides (29.5% or about three winners every 10 rides). All have numerous engagements tomorrow and some good chances.
Eagle Farm
*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. Chance of a shower or two. ***
BTC Cup (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Rain Affair.
In the last 12 years nine favourites have tasted defeat but only three winners have paid more than $7.50. Only three females have won in the same period and just two three-year-olds have been successful.
From barrier two Rain Affair leads them up and Buffering either possies up outside or takes a sit. They look the best two on paper and that usually wins weight-for-age races but if they cut at each other in front it could set it up for something to run home over the top of them. I think Better Than Ready is that horse. He's not well in at the weights but the three-year-olds have just seemed to have the older horses measure so far this season. Sea Siren doesn't appear to be firing but could bounce back to form in Queensland because she thrived here last year winning this race and the Doomben 10,000. Temple Of Boom the best roughie as he has has won twice before at his fourth run into a prep (2011 Aurie's Star, 2012 Galaxy). On both those occasions his first three runs were ordinary.
Locky's Selections
7 Better Than Ready
1 Buffering
3 Temple Of Boom
Champagne Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)
Pretty keen on Hooked here even though he drops back from 1350m to 1200m. He smacked Le Val on debut and that form looks pretty good now after his dominant win in the Ken Russell Memorial Classic last weekend at the Gold Coast. Octane Flyer has been mixing his form and is yet to win beyond 1010m but trainer Kelly Schweida is aiming at the Group 1 mile race for two-year-olds and he's trained a few more winners than I have. Did look good last time out though and if ridden quietly again will appreciate the return to level weights. Wary of the former Kiwi Vilanova, especially when I see C J Waller/J Bowman next to his name in the form guide.
Vo Heart, Into The Red, Global Dream and Bound For Earth also have claims.
Locky's Selections
3 Hooked
1 Octane Flyer
4 Vilanova
Morphettville
*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Good 3. ***
Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)
* Shellscrape and Zamorar are early scratchings.
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Yosei.
In the last 11 years nine winners have drawn a single figure barrier. Four mares have won in the last eight years including the last three in a row. 20 of the last 30 winners carried 54kg or less.
Going to put Facile Tigre on top here because of the discrepancy in weight and odds between him and the favourite Moment Of Change. The toppie is going to start odds-on and has to lump 58.5kg while the other has just 54.5kg and will be around $8. Facile Tigre has placed in the last two Oakleigh Plates, both when first-up, and his overall fresh record is good (9:2-3-3). The favourite is the obvious danger though, if he's bounced back from that poor run in Sydney. Yosei is the only other runner under double figures but she doesn't win often and always seems to find trouble. So I'll throw Galah in for third at a bit of value. Talented on his day and can run a race fresh.
Locky's Selections
7 Facile Tigre
1 Moment Of Change
5 Galah
Other bets
Sysmo (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 14) has been scratched from the Lord Mayors Cup in Sydney to tackle the Chairman's Handicap in Brisbane. Last start sixth behind Kelinni in the JRA Plate on Doncaster Day is good enough form for a race like this. Comes from an in-form stable who last Saturday delivered two winners and four placegetters across three states.
Someday (Eagle Farm Race 8 No. 6) has five wins and three seconds from nine career starts. He's a winner. I like following winners. The Kelso Wood stable is flying too with 23 winners from 74 starters this season (31.1%).
Drago (Rosehill Race 1 No. 1) is going to start odds-on but he's a horse I've been spruiking and tipping in this column for a few weeks now so I have to stay solid. I think he'll develop into a Derby hope next Spring so he'd want to be taking care of this lot.
Forarainyday (Rosehill Race 8 No. 17) caught the eye first-up when flashing into third behind Arinosa and Miss Stellabelle in the Sapphire Stakes. Has never won second-up but hasn't missed a place either. Guy Walter and Blake Shinn are coming off good success in the Sydney Autumn carnival. Each-way.
Imoto (Caulfield Race 2 No. 8) has been well tried in early markets and looks primed for this after two runs back. Has had three starts at the trip for two wins and a luckless close-up third last time out. Won over the mile third-up last preparation.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
We'll start off with "Singo-gaite" as it's been dubbed and the latest is the inquiry will resume on Monday. Andrew Johns and Allan Robinson have confirmed they will attend, Eddie Hayson has not. Stewards are investigating if there were any issues with More Joyous that should have been brought to their attention before her inglorious second-last in the All Aged Stakes on April 27. Just in case you've been living in a cave.
All Too Hard isn't heading overseas. He's been retired to stud. Vinery won't be pressing on to Royal Ascot so he will bow out a last-start winner, and Australia's second highest internationally rated horse behind his older, also retired half-sister Black Caviar.
Galaxy winner Bel Sprinter is heading overseas. He flies out for Singapore on Sunday. His chances in next weekend's Group 1 Krisflyer International Sprint have improved too with local champion Rocket Man ruled out with a minor setback.
It's been a bad week for Brisbane trainer Robert Heathcote. He was fined $500 by stewards on Monday for "conduct prejudicial to the image of racing" for comments he made on his blog about jockey Larry Cassidy. It went from bad to worse when he missed the first acceptance payment deadline for next Saturday's Doomben Cup with Solzhenitsyn. The Toorak winner will now head towards the Stradbroke instead, via the Lord Mayor's Cup at Doomben next weekend.
Meanwhile former Goldolphin trainer Mahmood al-Zarooni has appealed against the severity of his eight year disqualification for doping. He admitted to giving 15 horses anabolic steroids following a routine visit by testers. Sheikh Mohammed has locked down his Newmarket stables in the wake of the scandal
Lastly sad news for the connections of both Stout Hearted and Crackaroadie. The former had to be put down after sustaining a serious foot injury last weekend when he escaped from a trackwork rider. The latter was killed in a freak accident when he was hit by a truck after breaking free and running out a gate. Sincere commiserations to all involved.
LOOKING BACK
Morphettville
South Australian Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Shoreham.
Only one filly in th last 13 years and only three in the last thirty. Six of the last seven favourites have won. The highest price any of those paid was $4.50. 3rd. $1.70 place.
Average race. Look for this lot to be at the Oakbank meeting next Easter going over the steeples.
Locky's Selections
4 Gerontius (4th)
3 Shoreham (3rd) $1.70 place
8 McNulty (6th)
Gold Coast
Hollindale Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)
Not sure what to make of this race as they went out slow and sprinted home which is highlighted by the bunched finish where less than two lengths separated first and seventh. The winner obviously thrives in Queensland but under the cuircumstances the best efforts were from the get back, run on horses like Foreteller, Lamasery and Danleigh. Solzhenitsyn looked dour.
Locky's Selections
5 Solzhenitsyn (7th)
6 Lamasery (4th)
10 Stout Hearted (SCR)
Gold Coast Guineas (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)
Academus looked very good and will probably start a short priced favourite in the Fred Best Classic next weekend as a result. Al Aneed went super too and gave us a bit of value. Sizzling disappointing but I'll forgive him one bad run.
Locky's Selections
1 Sizzling (5th)
4 Academus (1st) $5.10 win / $2.00 place
8 Al Aneed (2nd) $5.30 place
Other bets
Walk With Attitude (Flemington Race 7 No. 1) is ready to win and the $5 on offer looks generous. She'll be suited by the step up to 1200m after storming home last start and has won second-up at her only previous attempt. With the two kilo claim she isn't badly in at the weights with a 54kg minimum. 10th.
Beaten Up (Hawkesbury Race 6 No. 4) can keep the good form rolling for Hugh Bowman and Chris Waller and the imports now trained in Australia. Two runs in this country should have him ready to peak. The 1600m may be a little short but that's why we'll get about $9. 2nd. $2.00 place.
Peron (Gold Coast Race 2 No. 13) has won three from four and has had a little freshen up for this and drops back to the 1200m. There's been some early money but you can still get $4.40. 1st. $3.10 win / $1.60 place.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
I'm getting too old for this shit.
- Ray Murrihy, Randwick, 27 April 2013
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