The focus is firmly on Brisbane this weekend with the Winter Carnival now in full flight and the feature event is the time-honoured Doomben 10,000. The honour roll for this race includes such greats as Bernborough, Baguette, Manikato, Chief De Beers (twice), Falvelon (twice), Bel Esprit and in recent years Takeover Target and Apache Cat (twice).
There is a good support program too with the G2 Sires Produce (run at Doomben instead of Eagle Farm now) and three Group 3 races plus a Listed race for the sprinters who've dodged the main event.
Randwick looks to be the pick of the remaining meetings with the Listed McKell Cup the highlight although the small field is disappointing and the track is likely to be severely rain affected.
There is a good support program too with the G2 Sires Produce (run at Doomben instead of Eagle Farm now) and three Group 3 races plus a Listed race for the sprinters who've dodged the main event.
Randwick looks to be the pick of the remaining meetings with the Listed McKell Cup the highlight although the small field is disappointing and the track is likely to be severely rain affected.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Since last Saturday Damian Browne has bagged three winners and a placegettter from just seven rides including a double at the Sunshine Coast last Sunday. In the last three weeks he's ridden 12 winners at 31.6% or almost one winner every three rides. He's also the leading jockey at Doomben strike rate wise over the last twelve months. Only three riders have ridden more winners at the track during that time and they have had many more rides.
Training wise it's a no-brainer with Chris Waller winning everywhere up and down the eastern seaboard. He's trained 18 winners in the last 21 days at a strike rate of a tick over one in five (20.5%).
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 5. The forecast is for a fine, partly cloudy day with gusty winds and the chance of a brief shower. ***
Since last Saturday Damian Browne has bagged three winners and a placegettter from just seven rides including a double at the Sunshine Coast last Sunday. In the last three weeks he's ridden 12 winners at 31.6% or almost one winner every three rides. He's also the leading jockey at Doomben strike rate wise over the last twelve months. Only three riders have ridden more winners at the track during that time and they have had many more rides.
Training wise it's a no-brainer with Chris Waller winning everywhere up and down the eastern seaboard. He's trained 18 winners in the last 21 days at a strike rate of a tick over one in five (20.5%).
Doomben
Doomben 10,000 (Group 1, 1350m, w-f-a)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Your Song.
The last six winners have all paid $5.50 or less. All of them have started favourite, equal favourite or second favourite. All of them had placed at their last start.
Looks to be a lot of speed here on paper with Rain Affair and Steps In Time likely to lead them a merry dance from their good barriers while Buffering has the length of the back straight to get across and tag them. Your Song probably follows Buffering across. Rangirangdoo probably has to press on too from his wide alley. I think Sea Siren will press forward and be in the front half of the field. It sets it up for the three-year-olds Epaulette and Better Than Ready to get the gun runs.
Your Song annihilated them last start and deserves to be favourite but he has to reproduce what he did on a wet track at Eagle Farm over 1200m on a dry track at Doomben over 1350m so I'm happy to take him on at $3.20 but I still think he can win. Looking behind him that day Better Than Ready was last on settling but still managed to get past all but Your Song and Rain Affair on a track where they just weren't making ground. He can be closer tomorrow from the inside draw. Buffering blew the start, never got into a rhythm and didn't handle the track but he still worked home OK as far as I was concerned. Forgive. Epaulette split Black Caviar and Bel Sprinter two runs back before disappointing in the All Aged but can bounce back after a little freshen up. Had a trial on May 14 just to keep him ticking over. Rangirangdoo the best roughie. I think Rain Affair and Steps In Time will bring each other undone. Sea Siren would need to lift.
Looks to be a lot of speed here on paper with Rain Affair and Steps In Time likely to lead them a merry dance from their good barriers while Buffering has the length of the back straight to get across and tag them. Your Song probably follows Buffering across. Rangirangdoo probably has to press on too from his wide alley. I think Sea Siren will press forward and be in the front half of the field. It sets it up for the three-year-olds Epaulette and Better Than Ready to get the gun runs.
Your Song annihilated them last start and deserves to be favourite but he has to reproduce what he did on a wet track at Eagle Farm over 1200m on a dry track at Doomben over 1350m so I'm happy to take him on at $3.20 but I still think he can win. Looking behind him that day Better Than Ready was last on settling but still managed to get past all but Your Song and Rain Affair on a track where they just weren't making ground. He can be closer tomorrow from the inside draw. Buffering blew the start, never got into a rhythm and didn't handle the track but he still worked home OK as far as I was concerned. Forgive. Epaulette split Black Caviar and Bel Sprinter two runs back before disappointing in the All Aged but can bounce back after a little freshen up. Had a trial on May 14 just to keep him ticking over. Rangirangdoo the best roughie. I think Rain Affair and Steps In Time will bring each other undone. Sea Siren would need to lift.
Locky's Selections
15 Better Than Ready
10 Epaulette
2 Buffering
10 Epaulette
2 Buffering
Sires Produce Stakes (Group 2, 1350m, 2-y-o set weights)
* Londehero is an early scratching
I think the Champagne Classic form may just prove stronger than that of the Ken Russell Memorial at the Gold Coast a week earlier. Seeing the Classic was run in atrocious conditions I'm looking for the horses that ran well there and can improve. This is another race where there looks to be genuine speed so again I'm also looking for horses who are drawn in and can run on but won't get too far back. I think barriers will be crucial here because there may not be a lot between these. How much do we read into the fact that Hugh Bowman rode stablemates Vilanova and Zoustar at their last starts and stays solid with the former? That's how I've attacked this tricky race.
Vo Heart, The Voice and Le Val will do it tough from their wide gates. Zoustar probably has to push forward from his gate whereas Vilanova will probably look for a trail. The ones drawn to get glorious passages are Missy Longstocking, Hooked and Bound For Earth. I tipped Hooked last time out and I'll give him another chance because he was dropping from 1350m back to 1200m and he got too far back on that heavy track (last to the turn) but hit the line as well as anything. Has the advantage of a win here at Doomben over the trip two starts back and prior to that he smacked Le Val on debut who subsequently won. Bound For Earth was another who made good ground late in the same race and trainer John O'Shea is adamant she should have been scratched after injuring herself going into the barrier. Her run under the circumstances was enormous because she came back to scale looking like she'd gone the distance with Mike Tyson. Missy Longstocking looked average when scraping home last start when a narrow winner as an odds-on favourite but she did sit four wide without cover the entire trip and will get a much better run tomorrow with the inside draw. Vilanova the best of Waller's pair for your First Fours.
Vo Heart, The Voice and Le Val will do it tough from their wide gates. Zoustar probably has to push forward from his gate whereas Vilanova will probably look for a trail. The ones drawn to get glorious passages are Missy Longstocking, Hooked and Bound For Earth. I tipped Hooked last time out and I'll give him another chance because he was dropping from 1350m back to 1200m and he got too far back on that heavy track (last to the turn) but hit the line as well as anything. Has the advantage of a win here at Doomben over the trip two starts back and prior to that he smacked Le Val on debut who subsequently won. Bound For Earth was another who made good ground late in the same race and trainer John O'Shea is adamant she should have been scratched after injuring herself going into the barrier. Her run under the circumstances was enormous because she came back to scale looking like she'd gone the distance with Mike Tyson. Missy Longstocking looked average when scraping home last start when a narrow winner as an odds-on favourite but she did sit four wide without cover the entire trip and will get a much better run tomorrow with the inside draw. Vilanova the best of Waller's pair for your First Fours.
Locky's Selections
12 Missy Longstocking
14 Bound For Earth
Grand Prix Stakes (Group 3, 2200m, 3-y-o set weights)
* Rowie, Excellent Al, Tonopah, Ali Vital and Paraggi are early scratchings
Hard race because we have to line up the Kiwis against the traditional lead up which is the Rough Habit Plate. That race was run on a bog track so the form out of it may be dubious.
Hawkspur won the race by cutting the corner but even so he won with authority and looks like the extra 200m will be no concern. From barrier three he'll get a cosy run in transit again. He has a sense of timing about him too. Last prep he took three runs to get fit before stringing together three successive victories. Who is to say he can't do that again because the stable is flying. Dear Demi is on the quick back-up following her win last weekend in The Roses and that has proved successful in the past. She won the VRC Oaks on a five-day back up and finished second to Pierro in the Champagne Stakes on a seven day back-up. She has a horror draw though but then again she did last week too. The Kiwis have a strong hand with the Murray Baker duo Usainity and Ambitious Champion plus the Mike Moroney trained Ryhthm To Spare. All have ability but I'll opt for Usainity because he looks to have been contesting better quality races but Ambitious Champion looks a good horse in the making if he learns how to race. His last start win had to be seen to be believed.
Hawkspur won the race by cutting the corner but even so he won with authority and looks like the extra 200m will be no concern. From barrier three he'll get a cosy run in transit again. He has a sense of timing about him too. Last prep he took three runs to get fit before stringing together three successive victories. Who is to say he can't do that again because the stable is flying. Dear Demi is on the quick back-up following her win last weekend in The Roses and that has proved successful in the past. She won the VRC Oaks on a five-day back up and finished second to Pierro in the Champagne Stakes on a seven day back-up. She has a horror draw though but then again she did last week too. The Kiwis have a strong hand with the Murray Baker duo Usainity and Ambitious Champion plus the Mike Moroney trained Ryhthm To Spare. All have ability but I'll opt for Usainity because he looks to have been contesting better quality races but Ambitious Champion looks a good horse in the making if he learns how to race. His last start win had to be seen to be believed.
Locky's Selections
2 Hawkspur
14 Dear Demi
4 Usainity
14 Dear Demi
4 Usainity
Glenlogan Park Stakes (Group 3, 1350m, fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)
* More Strawberries is an early scratching
Arinosa will be very short here and rightly so because she is without a doubt the most improved horse in the country. The only knock is the inside draw because in her previous wins she has sat wide with cover before unleashing down the middle of the straight. The danger is she could get cluttered up in traffic here. I'll tip her on top because I think she's just better than this lot but there's no way I'm wading into even money. Exotics may be the way to go here with some roughies boxed into the favourite as banker.
Emmalene ($26) has shown ability in the past and will relish a drop back in class from the BTC Cup and a return to a firm track and fillies and mares grade. Sookie ($17) was backed into favourtism last start when resuming before disappointing on that bottomless Eagle Farm track. The money was there to say she was ready to do something so it may pay to forgive that failure. Risk Aversion ($11) has a horror draw but she wasn't far away in a couple of quality fillies and mares races in Sydney during the carnival.
Emmalene ($26) has shown ability in the past and will relish a drop back in class from the BTC Cup and a return to a firm track and fillies and mares grade. Sookie ($17) was backed into favourtism last start when resuming before disappointing on that bottomless Eagle Farm track. The money was there to say she was ready to do something so it may pay to forgive that failure. Risk Aversion ($11) has a horror draw but she wasn't far away in a couple of quality fillies and mares races in Sydney during the carnival.
Locky's Selections
4 Arinosa
6 Emmalene
8 Risk Aversion
6 Emmalene
8 Risk Aversion
Other bets
Peron (Doomben Race 3 No. 13) was good to us last start and should win again. Overcame a lot of difficulties at the Gold Coast but like good horses do she found a way to win. Well drawn, well weighted and unbeaten up to 1400m. Could be a horse of the future with four wins and a third from five starts including a prior victory over this course and distance She's found her place in the market though ($2.50) so she may be one to play around with in a few multis.
Midsummer Sun (Doomben Race 9 No. 12) is another of these imported horses bought by Australian interests with a view to the Cups in the Spring. If they are setting their sights that high he'd want to be taking care of this lot from down on the minimum and a good gate. Two starts for two wins in this country including a last start victory over another import in the Chris Waller trained Fulgur who has since won. Should be backable at around $4.
Serene Star (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) is much better than this lot and with the three kilo claim isn't badly in at just three kilos over the minimum against her own sex. Vibrant Rouge is given a chance in the race which should ensure we can still get on at about $3.50. Serene Star gave Vibrant Rouge eight kilos first-up and beat her home, then gave her four and a half kilos second-up and beat her home again. Tomorrow she only has to give her three. Should probably be unbeaten this time after in after flashing home late last start after Elite Elle got away with murder in front (First 600m 37.23) before sprinting home.
Strawberry Boy (Caulfield Race 9 No. 5) is another who will come up at a skinny quote but should just win. Unbeaten up to a mile and unbeaten second-up. First-up run was great when sat on a hot speed and still managed to kick and defy all the challengers. The short way home in The Get Out Stakes.
Galaxy winner Bel Sprinter finished a gallant second in the Group 1 KrisFlyer Sprint at Singapore last Sunday.
The Jason Warren trained speedster missed the kick and copped a bump on the corner before flashing home behind Hong Kong galloper Lucky Nine, who was piloted by Melbourne Cup winning rider Brett Prebble.
Ortensia has run her last race and will head to the breeding barn after her disappointing performance last weekend at Scone in the race named in her honour.
She retires with more than $2.4 million in prizemoney from 13 career wins which included Group 1 successes in Australia, Dubai, and England.
Secret Admirer has also been retired after her third in the Doomben Cup and Reliable Man could join her in retirement if a stud deal can be found, otherwise he may race on.
Racing Victoria has issued two new charges against jockey Danny Nikolic relating to his inquiry involving chief steward Terry Bailey.
It's alleged the hoop acted improperly towards RV stewards panel member Wade Hadley at the VCAT hearing in November where Nikolic was appealing the severity of his two-year disqualification for threatening Bailey at Seymour races last September.
No date has been set for the latest hearing.
The ATC has decided to push the Spring Champion Stakes back one week and it will now be run as a stand-alone Group 1 on October 12, a week after the Epsom Handicap meeting which has traditionally closed the Sydney Spring Carnival.
The move is designed to give three-year-olds a fortnightly progression from the Golden Rose to the Spring Champion via either the Gloaming Stakes or the Stan Fox, but it does mean the race will now clash with the Caulfield Guineas
Black and Bent has claimed a record tenth successive jumps victory with a triumphant return at Sandown mid-week after more than a year on the sidelines.
His streak began in April 2010 but has been interrupted by two tendon injuries.
And Glen Boss has set a new record for prizemoney earned by a jockey in Victoria in a single season.
His fourth placing in the last race at Ballarat on Thursday took the total amount of prizemoney earned by his rides this season to $9,216,360, eclipsing Damian Oliver's previous record of $9,215,040.
Midsummer Sun (Doomben Race 9 No. 12) is another of these imported horses bought by Australian interests with a view to the Cups in the Spring. If they are setting their sights that high he'd want to be taking care of this lot from down on the minimum and a good gate. Two starts for two wins in this country including a last start victory over another import in the Chris Waller trained Fulgur who has since won. Should be backable at around $4.
Serene Star (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) is much better than this lot and with the three kilo claim isn't badly in at just three kilos over the minimum against her own sex. Vibrant Rouge is given a chance in the race which should ensure we can still get on at about $3.50. Serene Star gave Vibrant Rouge eight kilos first-up and beat her home, then gave her four and a half kilos second-up and beat her home again. Tomorrow she only has to give her three. Should probably be unbeaten this time after in after flashing home late last start after Elite Elle got away with murder in front (First 600m 37.23) before sprinting home.
Strawberry Boy (Caulfield Race 9 No. 5) is another who will come up at a skinny quote but should just win. Unbeaten up to a mile and unbeaten second-up. First-up run was great when sat on a hot speed and still managed to kick and defy all the challengers. The short way home in The Get Out Stakes.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
Galaxy winner Bel Sprinter finished a gallant second in the Group 1 KrisFlyer Sprint at Singapore last Sunday.
The Jason Warren trained speedster missed the kick and copped a bump on the corner before flashing home behind Hong Kong galloper Lucky Nine, who was piloted by Melbourne Cup winning rider Brett Prebble.
Ortensia has run her last race and will head to the breeding barn after her disappointing performance last weekend at Scone in the race named in her honour.
She retires with more than $2.4 million in prizemoney from 13 career wins which included Group 1 successes in Australia, Dubai, and England.
Secret Admirer has also been retired after her third in the Doomben Cup and Reliable Man could join her in retirement if a stud deal can be found, otherwise he may race on.
Racing Victoria has issued two new charges against jockey Danny Nikolic relating to his inquiry involving chief steward Terry Bailey.
It's alleged the hoop acted improperly towards RV stewards panel member Wade Hadley at the VCAT hearing in November where Nikolic was appealing the severity of his two-year disqualification for threatening Bailey at Seymour races last September.
No date has been set for the latest hearing.
The ATC has decided to push the Spring Champion Stakes back one week and it will now be run as a stand-alone Group 1 on October 12, a week after the Epsom Handicap meeting which has traditionally closed the Sydney Spring Carnival.
The move is designed to give three-year-olds a fortnightly progression from the Golden Rose to the Spring Champion via either the Gloaming Stakes or the Stan Fox, but it does mean the race will now clash with the Caulfield Guineas
Black and Bent has claimed a record tenth successive jumps victory with a triumphant return at Sandown mid-week after more than a year on the sidelines.
His streak began in April 2010 but has been interrupted by two tendon injuries.
And Glen Boss has set a new record for prizemoney earned by a jockey in Victoria in a single season.
His fourth placing in the last race at Ballarat on Thursday took the total amount of prizemoney earned by his rides this season to $9,216,360, eclipsing Damian Oliver's previous record of $9,215,040.
LOOKING BACK
Doomben
Doomben Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Beaten Up may just win the Brisbane Cup on that. Foreteller gave man of the moment Chris Waller the quinella. Lamasery has been retired. Lights Of Heaven appeared to have every possible hope.
Locky's Selections
5 Lamasery (9th)
4 Foreteller (2nd) $1.90 place
9 Lights Of Heaven (5th)
The Roses (Group 3, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
The two fillies with the ATC Oaks form ran one-two. Gondokoro is the one I want to follow in the Oaks next weekend because I get the feeling she will be better on the bigger track across the road at Eagle Farm and she was unlucky after copping early trouble and just missing.
Locky's Selections
4 Express Power (7th)
1 Dear Demi (1st) $3.70 win / $1.70 place
5 Gondokoro (2nd) $3.60 place
Any 2 1-5 $8.10
Quinella $26.70
Fred Best Classic (Group 3, 1350m, 3-y-o set weights)
Last week I wrote :
Pretty keen on Platinum Kingdom each-way here because I think he's got out to a silly price. He's won eight from 16 so he knows how to find the line. Unlucky last time at Hawkesbury when he didn't get clear running room in the straight.
I hope you copped the tip. I know self-praise is no praise but it is the only praise I get.
Locky's Selections
9 Platinum Kingdom (1st) $14.80 win / $4.10 place
4 Academus (3rd) $1.50 place
13 Al Aneed (14th)
Any 2 4-9 $13.10
Other bets
Last week I wrote:
Solzhenitsyn (Doomben Race 4 No. 2) gets one last chance despite his poor showing last time out. On his best form he would smack this lot. 1st. $2.40 win / $1.30 place
Miss Steele (Flemington Race 1 No. 11) is the street corner tip this weekend and has been the subject of heavy support. Always wary when the money comes for one from the Mick Kent yard. 3rd. $1.60 place.
Fontelina (Scone Race 5 No. 5) ran well in much better quality races during the Sydney Carnival and the trainer and jockey combined to win last Saturday's Group 1 in Brisbane. Stick with them. 1st. $5.20 win.
Shannara (Scone Race 6 No. 2) is ready to win after three runs back and Darley do have a habit of winning races they sponsor. Goes well at this track. 11th.
Flying Snitzel (Scone Race 7 No. 12) is a horse I am convinced is better kept fresh and kept to the sprinting distances. Has had a freshen-up and drops back from the mile to the seven furlongs. 8th
Doomben Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Beaten Up may just win the Brisbane Cup on that. Foreteller gave man of the moment Chris Waller the quinella. Lamasery has been retired. Lights Of Heaven appeared to have every possible hope.
Locky's Selections
5 Lamasery (9th)
4 Foreteller (2nd) $1.90 place
9 Lights Of Heaven (5th)
4 Foreteller (2nd) $1.90 place
9 Lights Of Heaven (5th)
The Roses (Group 3, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
The two fillies with the ATC Oaks form ran one-two. Gondokoro is the one I want to follow in the Oaks next weekend because I get the feeling she will be better on the bigger track across the road at Eagle Farm and she was unlucky after copping early trouble and just missing.
Locky's Selections
1 Dear Demi (1st) $3.70 win / $1.70 place
5 Gondokoro (2nd) $3.60 place
Any 2 1-5 $8.10
Quinella $26.70
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Someone better wake the Captain.
- Third Mate of the Exxon Valdez, Prince William Sound (Alaska), 24 March 1989
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